Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VIII Read OP For Mod Warnings

franciscanpunk · 24-01-2021 03:13AM

Lundstram wrote: »

The explosion happened because people took a mile when given an inch because they were severely restricted for so long. In comparison to most EU countries, Ireland was and still is more cautious and heavy handed with restrictions. That’s a fact. Actually seeing it in person myself in Portugal and the UK really opened my eyes.

We are a nation obsessed with this virus.

Exactly, for a covid obsessed nation yoi would think we would realise that over imposing restrictions for many months leading to a surge in pent up demand to socialise, see people, or just basically live a little does not impact well with a virus and exponential growth

acequion · 24-01-2021 03:14AM

Arghus wrote: »

People have suggested more targeted approaches. And we have used that on a few occasions - Donegal, Dublin, Laois, Offaly, Kildare - but it hasn't been shown to change the picture on a national level when the problem becomes a national one.

And other countries - The UK, Germany, France - have tried a more targeted region based approach - which they've subsequently had to abandon as the situation deteriorated.

Targeted approaches as opposed to blanket lockdowns are great in theory, but in practice are difficult when the situation worsens beyond a certain point.

I respectfully disagree that the level 5 in October was unnecessary. There was clear exponential growth occurring, in Dublin and elsewhere.

There were some counties where numbers were lower and perhaps level 3 may have been sufficient. But we don't know that - we only know what happened after level 5 measures took effect. It's not a guarantee that things would have worked out as they did if those counties had been left as they were.

And it's far from conclusive, even now, that level three is actually effective in containing the disease. For instance Dublin's numbers did not decline despite being put in level three for a period before the rest of the country.

And time is also of the essence when you are dealing with this. It took just over a month to go from just over 300 cases to 6000. Things can get out of control rapidly. The luxury of trying an approach and just seeing how it'll hopefully work out isn't one that we have.

I agree that we can't look smugly on at our European neighbours, but our mistake wasn't lockdown. Going to lockdown in October/November was exactly what spared us while the rest of Europe initially went to sh!t - our mistake was taking our foot off the gas - way off the gas - far too early. All around the continent countries were tightening measures, while we were loosening up! And that's why we are where we are.

I understand that people are fatigued, pissed off and worn out. But unfortunately the disease spreads by social contact and interaction and the more of it you have, the more disease you have. And the more disease there is the more absolutely difficult life becomes on a societal level. Normality can't return until you get it under control and people who don't or can't acknowledge this - I'm not accusing you of being one btw - are quite simply not living in the real world.

With all due respect there are many holes I could pick in your argument but it's late and I'm utterly weary of all this.

However a few things stand out. Other countries tried a targeted approach and yes abandoned as situations deteriorated. But they are willing to take the risk of easing when numbers get more manageable and in so doing they manage to balance the needs of all society much better. Yes it is a risk but imo it's preferable to the hysterical over caution here and much better for the wider society and economy.

Re October, numbers were growing in Dublin and elsewhere but not everywhere. There was no need for a blanket nationwide lockdown, the sledgehammer to crack a nut solution. Also the fact that numbers were growing despite restrictions, might that not indicate that the level 5 restrictions there [ie Dublin and Donegal] weren't working? You say it's far from conclusive that level 3 would be sufficient. Of course it is as we never gave level 3 enough of a chance.

Re the October lockdown, is it not evident that we locked down too hard too early and then relaxed too early? Literally letting all the lunatics out of the asylum to party. By lunatics, I mean all of us. When you starve too strict for too long people will binge. So the timing, as well as the approach, was all wrong imo.

And the recent massive surge is more down to the awful bad luck of the UK variant, coming as it did just before xmas when several came back from the UK. You can't really blame that on anybody and I wouldn't dream of finger pointing at people's natural desire to return to spend xmas with loved ones. It was just lousy luck and lousy timing to end a horror show of a year

So now yes we're stuck with restrictions because the landscape has changed. And even with that risks will have to be taken eventually as you just can't keep suffocating a society and economy. Kids will need to get back to school, movement around the country will have to allowed, social and business life will need to get back open. But I've zero faith in the Govt to get anything right. I think their track record has truly been abysmal.

A much longer reply than I intended. But this whole thing has got me seriously rattled.

Lundstram · 24-01-2021 03:16AM

Arghus wrote: »

It's also a fact that we have far less people dead per capita from this than the two countries you've mentioned.

Approaching 100k dead in The UK now. And their news is absolutely full of it every night, same as ours.

Perhaps because we are the youngest nation in Europe?

Suppose that doesn’t fit the granny killing narrative, though.

Arghus · 24-01-2021 03:23AM

Lundstram wrote: »

Perhaps because we are the youngest nation in Europe?

Suppose that doesn’t fit the granny killing narrative, though.

It played a role certainly, but even if you take discrepancies in average out of it we've still done better in terms of preventing deaths. Particularly in relation to The UK.

Lundstram · 24-01-2021 03:31AM

Arghus wrote: »

It played a role certainly, but even if you take discrepancies in average out of it we've still done better in terms of preventing deaths. Particularly in relation to The UK.

Many more variables. UK have a lot more densely populated cities than us. More nursing homes per capita, hospitals etc.

I’m saying previous heavy handed lockdowns were a major factor in the madness in December which has led us to this point.

Holding our death rate v the UK as justification for this is simplistic and naive one extreme.

MOH · 24-01-2021 03:42AM

Arghus wrote: »

I respectfully disagree that the level 5 in October was unnecessary. There was clear exponential growth occurring, in Dublin and elsewhere.

There were some counties where numbers were lower and perhaps level 3 may have been sufficient. But we don't know that - we only know what happened after level 5 measures took effect. It's not a guarantee that things would have worked out as they did if those counties had been left as they were.

And it's far from conclusive, even now, that level three is actually effective in containing the disease. For instance Dublin's numbers did not decline despite being put in level three for a period before the rest of the country.

Go and look at the figures. They'd stopped rising a week before level 5 came in. There certainly wasn't exponential growth at that point, in Dublin or anywhere in the country. At least half the eventual decrease had already happened before level 5 had a chance to have an effect. There is zero evidence that level 5 was necessary at that point, and it's not even clear how much of an effect it actually had. And it's part of a very clear sequence of policy decisions that got us to where we are now.

- Travel: Ignore the fact that in autumn 40%+ of cases were estimated to be a new Spanish variant that had emerged during the summer. Insist that travel isn't a big issue, refuse to implement any from of mandatory quarantine or inbound testing.
- Schools: Ignore that fact that number increased 50% in three weeks when schools re-opened. Insist that schools are safe, occasionally providing cherry-picked extremely specific statistics to push this line. Even now they're continuing to insist that schools are safe, it's just the travel to schools and contact outside that's an issue, which is an irrelevant distinction.
- Level 5: Go into a needless level 5 lockdown for 6 weeks. Repeatedly encourage people to follow this by promising them a "meaningful Christmas" if they do so
- Double down on this by boasting as things reopen about how we're the best in Europe. Later express surprise and disappointment that people socialised after being cooped up for 6 weeks and then told how great everything is.
- Travel again: make no effort to restrict travel or impose quarantines before Christmas or even enforce the existing restrictions despite knowing this is the time of year when a huge volume of people will both be returning home and having contact with a wide group of people.
- Finally claim that none of this is your fault, blame every one else: hospitality, the general public, a new strain that nobody could have predicted (despite having only had one a couple of months earlier), people going on holidays (which wouldn't cause a problem if there was an enforced quarantine), sunspots, yeti ....

No coherent travel policy; schools at all costs; needlessly lengthy strict restrictions. That's what got us to where we are. Everything else is fluff.

Arghus · 24-01-2021 03:58AM

acequion wrote: »

With all due respect there are many holes I could pick in your argument but it's late and I'm utterly weary of all this.

However a few things stand out. Other countries tried a targeted approach and yes abandoned as situations deteriorated. But they are willing to take the risk of easing when numbers get more manageable and in so doing they manage to balance the needs of all society much better. Yes it is a risk but imo it's preferable to the hysterical over caution here and much better for the wider society and economy.

Is Ireland actually doing worse than the rest of these societies? How do we measure this? I'd be damn certain that there's someone now as we speak on boards.de or whatever arguing that Germany/Austria wherever is doing way worse than literally everywhere else in Europe.

No one is having a good time of it at the moment. We certainly aren't, absolutely, but are we as a society doing worse than Italy, Belgium, France, England, Germany? Seems to me that they are all having a sh!t time of it as well. If you look at metrics like deaths and, even, economically things like GDP we're actually faring better. I'm not saying everything is great here, or even good, but I certainly wouldn't say that our society is even worse off socially or economically than most of Europe.

With even more due respect, there's a few things I could argue about your further points. I might even be able to pick a few holes too - which is fine, part and parcel of debate - and while I don't agree with a proportion of what you've said - the post was too long, I can't painstakingly rebutt it all - I respect your points of view.

Arghus · 24-01-2021 04:02AM

Lundstram wrote: »

Many more variables. UK have a lot more densely populated cities than us. More nursing homes per capita, hospitals etc.

I’m saying previous heavy handed lockdowns were a major factor in the madness in December which has led us to this point.

Holding our death rate v the UK as justification for this is simplistic and naive one extreme.

Honestly mate are you seriously suggesting that we've done worse than the UK during this?

Edit: The only reason I mentioned The UK at all is because you yourself brought it up. If someone is going to bring up The UK as a somewhat better example of literally anything to do with Covid, well, then, it's a fair point to point out the absolute pig's ear they've made of it from the start.

So they've been way more relaxed and less restrictive than us? And they've done worse than us in every countable metric. And that proves that we were wrong? How? Doesn't it prove the opposite?

Arghus · 24-01-2021 04:07AM

MOH wrote: »

Go and look at the figures. They'd stopped rising a week before level 5 came in. There certainly wasn't exponential growth at that point, in Dublin or anywhere in the country. At least half the eventual decrease had already happened before level 5 had a chance to have an effect. There is zero evidence that level 5 was necessary at that point, and it's not even clear how much of an effect it actually had. And it's part of a very clear sequence of policy decisions that got us to where we are now.

- Travel: Ignore the fact that in autumn 40%+ of cases were estimated to be a new Spanish variant that had emerged during the summer. Insist that travel isn't a big issue, refuse to implement any from of mandatory quarantine or inbound testing.
- Schools: Ignore that fact that number increased 50% in three weeks when schools re-opened. Insist that schools are safe, occasionally providing cherry-picked extremely specific statistics to push this line. Even now they're continuing to insist that schools are safe, it's just the travel to schools and contact outside that's an issue, which is an irrelevant distinction.
- Level 5: Go into a needless level 5 lockdown for 6 weeks. Repeatedly encourage people to follow this by promising them a "meaningful Christmas" if they do so
- Double down on this by boasting as things reopen about how we're the best in Europe. Later express surprise and disappointment that people socialised after being cooped up for 6 weeks and then told how great everything is.
- Travel again: make no effort to restrict travel or impose quarantines before Christmas or even enforce the existing restrictions despite knowing this is the time of year when a huge volume of people will both be returning home and having contact with a wide group of people.
- Finally claim that none of this is your fault, blame every one else: hospitality, the general public, a new strain that nobody could have predicted (despite having only had one a couple of months earlier), people going on holidays (which wouldn't cause a problem if there was an enforced quarantine), sunspots, yeti ....

No coherent travel policy; schools at all costs; needlessly lengthy strict restrictions. That's what got us to where we are. Everything else is fluff.

I don't disagree with a fair chunk of what you said there. I think there's been terrible policy decisions throughout this.

Of course, there's a lot I disagree with too, but, it's late.

Windmill100000 · 24-01-2021 07:06AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Nothing about my personal experiences was ill informed or lies.

You said regarding your last visit to hospital that while ICU may be full "generally hospitals are dead". Absolute nonsense. You got that info from being in a few parts of a hospital and asking the opinion of a doctor. It was ill informed because that day the hospital you were in was almost full.

You also appear to have little to no understanding how hospitals are run. Which is fair enough,
you dont work in one. The idea that people would be queing up to get an xray now when covid is such a big problem in hospital is a case in point. Similarly that an A&E doctor would know of actual bed capacity. Instead of accepting you got it wrong you are now denying you said certain things. If you had not said hospitals are generally dead, myself and others wouldn't have felt a need to say anything. I never said you were lying about A&E even though you suggested I did and told me to go have a look myself several times.

You are just grabbing on to anything and throwing it out there and hope it sticks. Like elderly people in nursing homes in Ireland not being protected enough - an issue throughout Europe but you made it appear like it was probably just here, or children being detrimentally affected by home school or no one being guaranteed their job lockdown ends. You and I both know that like past lockdowns many people will return to work when restrictions lift. Over and over again it's the same pattern.

But you are safe on this thread in the main because people against lockdown measures will thank you for being the mouthpiece no matter what you come out with and how ill-informed, exaggerated or wrong it is.

You know you were wrong about the mask comment as well because it was a slow drip till you revealed when it actually was that you witnessed staff without masks and you wandering casually around two hospitals. If nothing else on this thread, I'm very glad I pulled you up on that and you admitted the truth.

For all the back and forth I do hope you find work soon and like all of us this nightmare can be put behind us.

Windmill100000 · 24-01-2021 07:22AM

franciscanpunk wrote: »

You can negotiate a payment break with the bank, as you always could have but the break will now be classified as forbearance and on your credit history so ability for future borrowings affected(the 2 x 3 months breaks last year were not classed as forbearance). A payment doesnt mean much anyway, interest just keeps billing you will owe more at the end of the break tham you did when started and have less of a term to pay it back so unless yoi can afford the payment break increases you arw going to need to restructure, and what do you know, more coat of credit and more credit rating impact.

Rent arrears tbf, you can just not pay them for years in this country and not be evicted but i doubt that is a route the hard working retail, hosoitality, travel, airline, construction, etc staff want to go. Most people just want to work hard and pay their way.

I accept the restrictions now are neccessary(though what the hell we were at last summer closing places with no cases is was shamefull(. What drives me mental is is the argument that peoole who have lost their jobs businesses have options. They have little or no options. For many thier lives are runied. It is just how it is, I wish we would stop calling peoole out for supposed doom and gloom mentality. if you lose your business or job is affected for 10 months plus who knows how many more thats all there is, doom and gloom, and mortgage interest and plans ruined and more bills to worry about and education fees and car insurance you know pay more as pay monthly direct debit and 3 months car tax for cash flow even though it will cost more and stress and worry and general f$$king bleakness.

Yes, all true. Some people will be affected badly by covid as some were in the recession. I dont think anyone is denying that. These crises undoubtedly impact some more than others and always will.

Boggles · 24-01-2021 10:32AM

MOH wrote: »

No coherent travel policy; schools at all costs; needlessly lengthy strict restrictions. That's what got us to where we are. Everything else is fluff.

Nope

Micheál Martin says schools won't fully reopen before St Patrick's Day

Qwertyminger · 24-01-2021 10:56AM

Boggles wrote: »

Nope

Yeah I believe the poster is saying that and other stupid stubborn positions is what got us to this point. They had no choice but to change their tack because of the gigantic mess these unwavering decisions made.

It's so typical. Wait until there's a massive crisis before reacting instead of being proactive and trying to get ahead of the thing.

gmisk · 24-01-2021 11:11AM

My other half just back from Aldi doing the weekly big shop....it was hopping....seemingly on a Sunday they have special buys...today was a load of eejits fighting over ski gear....

Richard Hillman · 24-01-2021 11:23AM

With cases dropping like a stone and the health service looking like it coped despite 7000 cases a day, there can be no justification on further Lockdowns.

We were told the health service was on the brink when we were getting between 500-1000 cases a day.

When a sufficient amount of over 70s are vaccinated, that should be it. Thousands of 20-30-40 year olds testing positive is not justification for locking down the country.

rodneyTrotter. · 24-01-2021 11:23AM

gmisk wrote: »

My other half just back from Aldi doing the weekly big shop....it was hopping....seemingly on a Sunday they have special buys...today was a load of eejits fighting over ski gear....

It was fine picked up some nice gear

BredonWimsey · 24-01-2021 11:24AM

gmisk wrote: »

My other half just back from Aldi doing the weekly big shop....it was hopping....seemingly on a Sunday they have special buys...today was a load of eejits fighting over ski gear....

they won't be needing that ski gear for awhile. :mad:
i agree that the government has messed this up with their push and pull erratic policies but there are alot of people who are just doing whatever the hell they want. my other half and i both wfh are following restrictions to a T - we just want this whole thing to be over tbh and not to be a factor in any spread etc. meanwhile someone we know is going to the park with their kid who is meeting up with several other children. there is no consistency here. its a bad stew with a little bit of this and a little bit of that -that no one wants to eat.

BredonWimsey · 24-01-2021 11:26AM

Richard Hillman wrote: »

With cases dropping like a stone and the health service looking like it coped despite 7000 cases a day, there can be no justification on further Lockdowns.

We were told the health service was on the brink when we were getting between 500-1000 cases a day.

When a sufficient amount of over 70s are vaccinated, that should be it. Thousands of 20-30-40 year olds testing positive is not justification for locking down the country.

6 months they are saying now which has me dumbfounded. we should all just leave the country and have a semblance of a life. why are we so strict and other countries are putting a less of a strain on their resident. so frustrating. and why are they leaking this to the papers rather than just coming out and saying it. feeding us in drips and drabs like babies.

gmisk · 24-01-2021 11:27AM

rodneyTrotter. wrote: »

It was fine picked up some nice gear

Rodney...you plonker!

WicklaBlaa · 24-01-2021 11:34AM

BredonWimsey wrote: »

they won't be needing that ski gear for awhile. :mad:
i agree that the government has messed this up with their push and pull erratic policies but there are alot of people who are just doing whatever the hell they want. my other half and i both wfh are following restrictions to a T - we just want this whole thing to be over tbh and not to be a factor in any spread etc. meanwhile someone we know is going to the park with their kid who is meeting up with several other children. there is no consistency here. its a bad stew with a little bit of this and a little bit of that -that no one wants to eat.

You're very lucky yourself and the other half have jobs the where you both work from home. It's not so easy for others.

Try to put yourself in other people's shoes.

Kids meeting outside with parental supervision is very low risk. Are children to be cooped up inside for weeks unend?

24-01-2021 11:39AM

BredonWimsey wrote: »

why are they leaking this to the papers rather than just coming out and saying it.

So that your frustration and anger is spent by the time the announcement comes. Standard propaganda strategy.

BredonWimsey · 24-01-2021 11:39AM

WicklaBlaa wrote: »

You're very lucky yourself and the other half have jobs the where you both work from home. It's not so easy for others.

Try to put yourself in other people's shoes.

Kids meeting outside with parental supervision is very low risk. Are children to be cooped up inside for weeks unend?

i just said there was no consistency. i said it was one example of people doing what they want. and the regulations say one household can meet up outdoors. so if there is such a low risk then why dont the regulations say its fine. if its low risk and fine I have no issue. but thats my point - no consistency. i'm not begrudging people who have to do it but its not following regulations. Lord O Mighty give me strength to deal with people on boards today.

BredonWimsey · 24-01-2021 11:40AM

Deleted User wrote: »

So that your frustration and anger is spent by the time the announcement comes. Standard propaganda strategy.

aww i see. so manipulative.

24-01-2021 11:40AM

BredonWimsey wrote: »

if there is such a low risk then why dont the regulations say its fine.

Quite.

BredonWimsey · 24-01-2021 11:41AM

WicklaBlaa wrote: »

You're very lucky yourself and the other half have jobs the where you both work from home. It's not so easy for others.

Try to put yourself in other people's shoes.

Kids meeting outside with parental supervision is very low risk. Are children to be cooped up inside for weeks unend?

i put myself in other peoples shoes every day and frankly its exhausting and the shoe seldom fits either and doesnt match what i want to wear.

Widdensushi · 24-01-2021 11:54AM

gmisk wrote: »

My other half just back from Aldi doing the weekly big shop....it was hopping....seemingly on a Sunday they have special buys...today was a load of eejits fighting over ski gear....

You are more likely to catch covid at home than in a big supermarket

24-01-2021 11:55AM

The WHO explicitly says that lockdowns should be short and used as a time to lay the groundwork for more sustainable solutions, like track & trace, isolating close contacts, and voluntary hygiene and distancing measures.

The Irish government is talking about another half a year of this nonsense because they can't be arsed to get T&T in place and are instead riding on a wing and a prayer that an already short-in-supply vaccine will be fully delivered by then.

BredonWimsey · 24-01-2021 11:56AM

Widdensushi wrote: »

You are more likely to catch covid at home than in a big supermarket

if all the household is at home and has very limited interaction with outside than i dont see how this can be the case.

if you are inviting tom dick and harry from down the road in for a cuppa every day yes than you are an ijiot

Richard Hillman · 24-01-2021 11:57AM

BredonWimsey wrote: »

6 months they are saying now which has me dumbfounded. we should all just leave the country and have a semblance of a life. why are we so strict and other countries are putting a less of a strain on their resident. so frustrating. and why are they leaking this to the papers rather than just coming out and saying it. feeding us in drips and drabs like babies.

This is something that has infuriated me. Everything, EVERYTHING leaked to the media before telling us. A national emergency and they looked after the media before telling us.

BredonWimsey · 24-01-2021 11:57AM

Deleted User wrote: »

The WHO explicitly says that lockdowns should be short and used as a time to lay the groundwork for more sustainable solutions, like track & trace, isolating close contacts, and voluntary hygiene and distancing measures.

The Irish government is talking about another half a year of this nonsense because they can't be arsed to get T&T in place and are instead riding on a wing and a prayer that an already short-in-supply vaccine will be fully delivered by then.

its a nightmare. why are they so stupid.

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VIII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

Comments

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VIII Read OP For Mod Warnings