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Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

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  • #9092
    Happydays2020
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    MrMusician18 wrote: »
    If you read the carry on of what went on in Belmullet in the Irish Times article (pints being passed out windows and the like), it would make you feel very angry.

    Heard stories about a pub in Malahide also.


  • #9093
    niallo27
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,139 ✭✭✭✭niallo27


    wadacrack wrote: »
    Its not about being optimistic or pessimistic, showing a decent level of emotional intelligence in a pandemic would help alot of posters here.

    People need something to be optimistic about, I'm personally finding it very tough and I'm really low at the moment so seeing these case numbers is something to hope for. That doesn't mean I can't have empathy for the people that died.


  • #9094
    MrMusician18
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,127 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    doublejobbing 2 wrote: »
    Mehole should be charged with criminal negligence. What kind of idiot thought one single person arriving home would self isolate? The very type of person to travel is by default the type least likely to take even the most basic precautions.

    No, the hotel owners and operators down there along with those that facilitated this disaster should be charged with criminal negligence. CCTV should be taken from the venue and every single bollocks in attendance should be fined.

    The greedy venue operators should never open their doors again.

    The ara be grand bull**** needs to end.


  • #9095
    Happydays2020
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    niallo27 wrote: »
    People need something to be optimistic about, I'm personally finding it very tough and I'm really low at the moment so seeing these case numbers is something to hope for. That doesn't mean I can't have empathy for the people that died.

    I have had 5 weeks now with no contacts. Got into bad habits of not exercising or walking but had a 10km walk today which has done me a world of good and seeing those lower numbers was another nice tonic for the soul.


  • #9096
    MrMusician18
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,127 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    Happydays2020 wrote: »
    Heard stories about a pub in Malahide also.

    As have I. It's license should be taken from it and never ever renewed.


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  • #9097
    WoollyRedHat
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,462 ✭✭✭✭WoollyRedHat


    Turtwig wrote: »
    We should wait for further studies and datas though.

    There is an abundance of data though, time is of the essence.


  • #9098
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    MrMusician18 wrote: »
    As have I. It's license should be taken from it and never ever renewed.

    The infamous lockin after the All Ireland?


  • #9099
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    blowitupref wrote: »
    7-day average of 2349 today which shows we are very much on track. What do you reckon the 7-day average will be this day week?
    On mobile, so completely winging this more than usual with no data to refer to, but we should be conservative about our expectations. The rate of case decline will slow over the next 14 days, and especially when we throw close contact testing back into the mix.

    7-day average below 1,800 this day next week would be about the most pessimistic projection. We'd still be on track, but looking at a really slow decline in cases into February.

    More realistic is 1,500, but I'm skeptical we'll hit that.


  • #9100
    Purple Mountain
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,695 ✭✭✭✭Purple Mountain


    Is The Irish Times article behind a paywall?

    To thine own self be true



  • #9101
    Steve012
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 938 ✭✭✭Steve012


    Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »
    It's snowing!

    What county you in?


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  • #9102
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Purple Mountain wrote: »
    Is The Irish Times article behind a paywall?

    Which one?


  • #9103
    polesheep
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,950 ✭✭✭polesheep


    DrSpongeBobz wrote: »
    but a few months ago posters were just focusing on low deaths all the time when cases going up

    It's not the same thing. You can be happy about the numbers falling while at the same time be saddened by the deaths.


  • #9104
    10000maniacs
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,601 ✭✭✭10000maniacs


    MrMusician18 wrote: »
    No, the hotel owners and operators down there along with those that facilitated this disaster should be charged with criminal negligence. CCTV should be taken from the venue and every single bollocks in attendance should be fined.

    The greedy venue operators should never open their doors again.

    The ara be grand bull**** needs to end.

    500 people dead in the last 10 days and people like this are responsible.


  • #9105
    Jim_Hodge
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,139 ✭✭✭✭Jim_Hodge


    Purple Mountain wrote: »
    Is The Irish Times article behind a paywall?

    No.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/how-did-a-remote-mayo-town-become-ireland-s-most-covid-infected-place-1.4465431


  • #9106
    FishOnABike
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,868 ✭✭✭FishOnABike


    zuutroy wrote: »
    I think once contact testing is happening again, positivity is low to mid single figures and case numbers are less than 1000 and still falling then opening schools shouldn't throw things back into chaos. Level 5 with schools and construction open caused an 80% reduction in cases in one month in Oct/Nov.
    If we're already on a downward trajectory, then even allowing for increased transmissibility of new variants it's hard to imagine the R-number being brought above 1 by schools.

    Not that difficult when you look at the numbers.

    An 80% reduction in a month is an R value between 0.3 and 0.4

    The B117 variant is reckoned to increase that by between 0.4 and 0.7. ( https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55507012 ). Even taking the lowest value of 0.4 that would bring the R value to around 0.8 even with the current level of restrictions. That leaves very little scope for relaxing restrictions further.

    Opening schools could increase the R value by around 25% ( https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/coronavirus-r-rate-school-closures-lockdown-lancet-study-b1251617.html ) or between 0.2 and 0.7 ( https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/05/neil-ferguson-predicts-r-number-rise-if-secondary-schools-fully-reopen ).

    That would leave no scope for any other relaxation of restrictions while still keeping numbers under control.

    I think things are more finely balanced and more sensitive to change (for better or worse) than most people realise.

    It makes sense to be cautious about reopening things in terms of when we start relaxing restrictions, the rate of relaxing restrictions, the level of relaxing restrictions and the point(s) at which we relax restrictions. With a higher R progress gained can be lost far more quickly.


  • #9107
    spookwoman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,059 ✭✭✭✭spookwoman


    Sorry not report yet waiting on HUB to be updated.


  • #9108
    PTH2009
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,341 ✭✭✭✭PTH2009


    Who's this guy

    https://extra.ie/2021/01/23/news/irish-news/covid-numbers-true-level-activity

    The HSE getting the pretty Doctors out now to get attention


  • #9109
    Purple Mountain
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,695 ✭✭✭✭Purple Mountain


    Stheno wrote: »
    Which one?

    Thanks, have it below now.

    To thine own self be true



  • #9110
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    PTH2009 wrote: »
    Who's this guy

    https://extra.ie/2021/01/23/news/irish-news/covid-numbers-true-level-activity

    The HSE getting the pretty Doctors out now to get attention
    Ah him- he's @DrZeroCraic on Twitter and has had a lot to say. Just a GP.


  • #9111
    Azatadine
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,589 ✭✭✭Azatadine


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Ah him- he's @DrZeroCraic on Twitter and has had a lot to say. Just a GP.

    Is he Leo's friend?


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  • #9112
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Azatadine wrote: »
    Is he Leo's friend?
    Think he is.


  • #9113
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Think he is.

    Was :D


  • #9114
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    PTH2009 wrote: »
    Who's this guy

    https://extra.ie/2021/01/23/news/irish-news/covid-numbers-true-level-activity

    The HSE getting the pretty Doctors out now to get attention

    That’s the lad Leo leaked a copy of the doctors contract too.Attention seeker.


  • #9115
    GeorgeBailey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭GeorgeBailey


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Ah him- he's @DrZeroCraic on Twitter and has had a lot to say. Just a GP.

    Former best friend of Leo too


  • #9116
    StevenToast
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,048 ✭✭✭StevenToast


    Shocking numbers again today...on a weekend...worrying

    "Don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining." - Fletcher



  • #9117
    jammiedodgers
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,430 ✭✭✭jammiedodgers


    StevenToast wrote: »
    Shocking numbers again today...on a weekend...worrying

    But less shocking than this day last week. :)


  • #9118
    MerlinSouthDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,627 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    seamus wrote: »
    On mobile, so completely winging this more than usual with no data to refer to, but we should be conservative about our expectations. The rate of case decline will slow over the next 14 days, and especially when we throw close contact testing back into the mix.

    7-day average below 1,800 this day next week would be about the most pessimistic projection. We'd still be on track, but looking at a really slow decline in cases into February.

    More realistic is 1,500, but I'm skeptical we'll hit that.

    It is possible our rate of progress will slow. But also possible it will improve as we reach the end of some chains of transmission. With average close contacts down to an incredibly low 2.1 per case, the resumption of testing asymptomatic close contacts is going to make very little difference to daily case numbers.


  • #9119
    Arduach
    Closed Accounts Posts: 618 ✭✭✭Arduach


    Very sad deaths daily, RIP to all. You're a number online or in the news but mean a lot to your family and friends.

    The case numbers are declining well, very good to see. They determine hospitalisations, ICU numbers and deaths over the next 28 days.

    One worry I have regarding continued reduction at the same rate is the opening of schools.

    I dislike the whole 'sides' thing that has long developed on the thread. I think it's a result of fatigue from this thing and stress. At the end of the day 99% of us want to return to the way we lived pre covid as soon as it is safe to do so. Some good contributions across the board here. Though somedays I can't read the thread as it just gets too heavy and isn't good for mental health.


  • #9120
    frank8211
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 306 ✭✭frank8211


    Robalees wrote: »
    60 cases a day Belmullet
    Due to hotels and bars open at Christmas
    And people coming back from uk at Christmas and not isolating one in every 17 people in the locality has the virus.BROADHAVEN BAY HOTEL, was a super spreader site also talbot hotel


    This remote part of north-west Co Mayo, an area similar in size to Co Louth but with just 12,600 inhabitants, has seen an explosion of Covid cases since Christmas. And the frequency of funerals is rising.ANOTHER COVID HOUSE CALL. “I’VE BEEN QUALIFIED 23 YEARS AND I’VE NEVER WORKED AS HARD,”. PHOTOGRAPH: PETER MURTAGH
    Dr Swanick was on call last weekend because his colleague at the town’s other practice, Dr Fergal Ruane, was isolating, having come into close personal contact with Covid, outside of his work as a doctor. On Friday, Dr Ruane confirmed he had tested positive for Covid, thus further depleting Belmullet’s severely stretched healthcare capacity.

    The town achieved national – indeed international – notoriety recently because of the post-Christmas infections surge. The State’s national rate between January 4th to 18th ran to 1,334.6 infected people per 100,000. Around Belmullet, with 700 confirmed cases, the rate ran, incredibly, to 5,556.6 per 100,000.

    one in every 17 people in the locality had the virus.

    Reading between the lines of a story in the Irish Times the Broadhaven was the bigger culprit. It says the other closed on 23rd and a big mountain of cases came from 26th


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  • #9121
    marno21
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,650 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    seamus wrote: »
    On mobile, so completely winging this more than usual with no data to refer to, but we should be conservative about our expectations. The rate of case decline will slow over the next 14 days, and especially when we throw close contact testing back into the mix.

    7-day average below 1,800 this day next week would be about the most pessimistic projection. We'd still be on track, but looking at a really slow decline in cases into February.

    More realistic is 1,500, but I'm skeptical we'll hit that.

    Key to note as well that the heavy restrictions only began between the 5th and 7th. I know of cases from constructions sites that week where lads were told to show up to work or there would be no pay. Said fellas were symptomatic Covids. Down here also travel restrictions only started getting enforced on the 5th.

    Hopefully 2 weeks of less movement will help to further suppress spread.


This discussion has been closed.
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