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Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

1268269271273274333

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,257 ✭✭✭✭castletownman


    Tony Holohan really helping the overall mood of the nation with his prediction of a 1000 deaths before the month is out. Meanwhile, some of his contemporaries prefer to post positive news around the vaccine.

    What is Holohan's scaremongering trying to achieve? Like, we know this particular wave is bad, but it's not like our lockdown is contributing to it. We as a populace have done all we've been asked of, apart from a few cases of knuckle-draggers breaking the 5KM to get fecking fast food.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,591 ✭✭✭bennyl10


    Tony Holohan really helping the overall mood of the nation with his prediction of a 1000 deaths before the month is out. Meanwhile, some of his contemporaries prefer to post positive news around the vaccine.

    What is Holohan's scaremongering trying to achieve? Like, we know this particular wave is bad, but it's not like our lockdown is contributing to it. We as a populace have done all we've been asked of, apart from a few cases of knuckle-draggers breaking the 5KM to get fecking fast food.

    would you prefer the CMO didnt speak the advice?.. and decided not to tell us what the current figures show?

    Because that's not his role


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    The 7 day average of positive swabs is declining, but at a slower rate- it's only down by 1500 compared to last week.
    "Only" 1500?

    It's down by 34.5%

    The previous 7 days it was "only" down by 1,000 swabs/day; or 19.6%

    The last 7 days have seen the biggest drop in positive swabs so far. Possibly since the very start of this pandemic.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,421 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Comparing our current 7-day average to the previous 7 day average is pointless since the previous 7 day average included the backlog. We effectively had 14 days worth of cases declared over 7 days.

    The 7 day average of positive swabs is declining, but at a slower rate- it's only down by 1500 compared to last week.
    Down by 1500, what's that as a % reduction, what was the previous 7 day average of positive swabs. You need to provide context.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,257 ✭✭✭✭castletownman


    seamus wrote: »
    "Only" 1500?

    It's down by 34.5%

    The previous 7 days it was "only" down by 1,000 swabs/day; or 19.6%

    The last 7 days have seen the fastest drop in positive swabs so far. Possibly since the very start of this pandemic.

    Holohan focuses on projected deaths though :rolleyes:


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 814 ✭✭✭IrishStuff09


    Positive Swabs
    2,300

    Positivity Rate
    10.17%

    Swabs processed
    22,611

    Edit: 7 day pos. is now 11.8% as well


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,627 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    Swabs: 2300
    + rate 10.17%

    Not bad


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Really good numbers.

    7-day average now 11.79%

    Another few days of that and we should see a 7-day average below 10% by next week.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Eod100 wrote: »
    Is that maybe 344 total beds available? Seems total in ICU is 320

    https://twitter.com/PaulQuinnNews/status/1352257239436976128
    It's a direct quote from Paul Reid. TBH I switch off when I hear the word surge as they seem to drop all sorts of different numbers in all the time.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,961 ✭✭✭CrabRevolution


    seamus wrote: »
    "Only" 1500?

    It's down by 34.5%

    The previous 7 days it was "only" down by 1,000 swabs/day; or 19.6%

    The last 7 days have seen the fastest drop in positive swabs so far. Possibly since the very start of this pandemic.

    I was responding to a post claiming that we're down an average of 3000 cases a day since last week, hence "only". Unless you think 1500 is bigger than 3000.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,151 ✭✭✭✭Gael23


    2300 is not good.
    It shows we have plateaued at the wrong level


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,985 ✭✭✭Sweet.Science


    Gael23 wrote: »
    2300 is not good.
    It shows we have plateaued at the wrong level

    How so ?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,136 ✭✭✭Akabusi


    Gael23 wrote: »
    2300 is not good.
    It shows we have plateaued at the wrong level

    Wrong, look at the previous posts, the numbers are declining.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,591 ✭✭✭bennyl10


    seamus wrote: »
    Really good numbers.

    7-day average now 11.79%

    Another few days of that and we should see a 7-day average below 10% by next week.

    its a plateau of positive numbers which, which isnt ideal


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,181 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    is_that_so wrote: »
    It's a direct quote from Paul Reid. TBH I switch off when I hear the word surge as they seem to drop all sorts of different numbers in all the time.

    Yeah that's fair enough, I just wasn't sure what the number was referring to. Guess NPHET might clarify later too


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,627 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    Gael23 wrote: »
    2300 is not good.
    It shows we have plateaued at the wrong level

    It does not show that at all.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    Tony Holohan really helping the overall mood of the nation with his prediction of a 1000 deaths before the month is out. Meanwhile, some of his contemporaries prefer to post positive news around the vaccine.

    What is Holohan's scaremongering trying to achieve? Like, we know this particular wave is bad, but it's not like our lockdown is contributing to it. We as a populace have done all we've been asked of, apart from a few cases of knuckle-draggers breaking the 5KM to get fecking fast food.

    I stopped listening to the CMO after his disastrous and somewhat fatal advice to nursing homes in March last year. Anyone who saw the scenes from Italy knew whom were most at risk.
    I do however follow the medical advice.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,791 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Everytime the goverment have deviated from the scientific advice it has been a disaster. They have to take nphets advice now or more lives and livelihoods will be lost.

    We will never get this virus under control without properly controlling travel.


    Travel abroad?
    That accounts for only 1% of cases.
    https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/summary/


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 618 ✭✭✭Arduach


    seamus wrote: »
    Really good numbers.

    7-day average now 11.79%

    Another few days of that and we should see a 7-day average below 10% by next week.

    I wouldn't go that far. There ok, neither good nor bad.

    Good in the sense of where we're coming from. Not great in the sense they are still 1,000 above the October high, and are going to cause maybe 15-20 deaths a day in a month, and that's sad.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    bennyl10 wrote: »
    its a plateau of positive numbers which, which isnt ideal

    giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e47x39nowv85n413vqsia8sszmh28aajwwm5doto5ns&rid=giphy.gif


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,450 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    bennyl10 wrote: »
    its a plateau of positive numbers which, which isnt ideal

    Well seeing as it was nearly 3900 this day last week that's not exaclty a plateau.

    Downward trends aren't plateaus either

    Its a little slower to drop than many would like but dropping nonetheless


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,756 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    seamus wrote: »
    giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e47x39nowv85n413vqsia8sszmh28aajwwm5doto5ns&rid=giphy.gif

    There's a gif for the catalog


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,181 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    Tony Holohan really helping the overall mood of the nation with his prediction of a 1000 deaths before the month is out. Meanwhile, some of his contemporaries prefer to post positive news around the vaccine.

    What is Holohan's scaremongering trying to achieve? Like, we know this particular wave is bad, but it's not like our lockdown is contributing to it. We as a populace have done all we've been asked of, apart from a few cases of knuckle-draggers breaking the 5KM to get fecking fast food.

    It was in context of letter to health minister requesting that restrictions on entering the country would be tighter. I don't really see the issue tbh, sugarcoating the situation would be worse.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,421 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Well seeing as it was nearly 3900 this day last week that's not exaclty a plateau.

    Downward trends aren't plateaus either

    Seems to be following the same trend as last week, cases lowering up until Wednesday when the GP referrals kick in, slight increase and then a another downward trend till the following Wednesday. Although this Wednesday was a lower increase and Thursday a bigger decrease than last week. Clear as day on the swab's.
    https://covid19.shanehastings.eu/api/swabs/


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,172 ✭✭✭wadacrack


    It has plateaued tbh, Ro I would think is at about 1 or maybe abit below that hopefully.


    https://twitter.com/gpbuddy/status/1352275717925588992


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,215 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    Tony Holohan really helping the overall mood of the nation with his prediction of a 1000 deaths before the month is out. Meanwhile, some of his contemporaries prefer to post positive news around the vaccine.

    What is Holohan's scaremongering trying to achieve? Like, we know this particular wave is bad, but it's not like our lockdown is contributing to it. We as a populace have done all we've been asked of, apart from a few cases of knuckle-draggers breaking the 5KM to get fecking fast food.

    That prediction was in a letter to the Minister for Health. Would you prefer that he wasn't keeping the Minister for Health informed of this?

    It isn't scaremongering either, there's been over 500 deaths so far in January.

    I don't really see how a person can have any issue with the CMO relaying factually accurate information to the relevant Government Minister about an ongoing public health crisis.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,599 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    Arghus wrote: »
    That prediction was in a letter to the Minister for Health. Would you prefer that he wasn't keeping the Minister for Health informed of this?

    It isn't scaremongering either, there's been over 500 deaths so far in January.

    I don't really see how a person can have any issue with the CMO relaying factually accurate information to the relevant Government Minister about an ongoing public health crisis.

    People want to bitch and moan. If he wasn't making predictions they would moan about that.

    There is an argument that nphet advice should be private from the department to the minister but I believe its nice that its in the public domain so we can call out government when they don't follow the advice.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,997 ✭✭✭gally74


    Lilly's neutralizing antibody bamlanivimab (LY-CoV555) prevented COVID-19 at nursing homes in the BLAZE-2 trial, reducing risk by up to 80 percent for residents
    January 21, 2021
    Download PDF
    INDIANAPOLIS, Jan. 21, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- Bamlanivimab (LY-CoV555) significantly reduced the risk of contracting symptomatic COVID-19 among residents and staff of long-term care facilities, Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) announced. The Phase 3 BLAZE-2 COVID-19 prevention trial – conducted in partnership with the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the COVID-19 Prevention Network (CoVPN) – enrolled residents and staff at skilled nursing and assisted living facilities, commonly referred to as nursing homes, across the U.S.

    The 965 participants who tested negative for the SARS-CoV-2 virus at baseline (299 residents and 666 staff) were included in the analysis of primary and key secondary endpoints for assessing prevention, while the 132 participants (41 residents and 91 staff) who tested positive for the virus at baseline were included in exploratory analyses for assessing treatment, adding to the growing body of evidence for treatment with bamlanivimab. All participants were randomized to receive either 4,200 mg of bamlanivimab or placebo.

    After all participants reached 8 weeks of follow-up, there was a significantly lower frequency of symptomatic COVID-19 (the primary endpoint) in the bamlanivimab treatment arm versus placebo (odds ratio 0.43, p=0.00021). Results for all key secondary endpoints also reached statistical significance in both the overall and resident populations.

    For the pre-specified subgroup of nursing home residents, there was also a significantly lower frequency of symptomatic COVID-19 in those treated with bamlanivimab versus placebo in this important population (odds ratio 0.20; p=0.00026). These results suggest that residents randomized to bamlanivimab have up to an 80 percent lower risk of contracting COVID-19 versus residents in the same facility randomized to placebo.

    Results from exploratory analyses of viral load in the treatment group were consistent with previously disclosed data from BLAZE-1 evaluating bamlanivimab as an outpatient treatment for recently diagnosed COVID-19.

    Among the 299 residents in the prevention group, there were 4 deaths attributed to COVID-19 at the time of death, and all occurred in the placebo arm. There were no COVID-19 attributed deaths in the bamlanivimab arm. Among the 41 residents in the treatment group, there were 4 deaths, and all occurred in the placebo arm with none in the bamlanivimab arm. Over the entire trial, there were a total of 16 deaths reported, including deaths not related to COVID-19, and all deaths were residents (11 deaths in placebo arm and 5 in bamlanivimab arm).

    "We are exceptionally pleased with these positive results, which showed bamlanivimab was able to help prevent COVID-19, substantially reducing symptomatic disease among nursing home residents, some of the most vulnerable members of our society," said Daniel Skovronsky, M.D., Ph.D., Lilly's chief scientific officer and president of Lilly Research Laboratories. "These data provide important additional clinical evidence regarding the use of bamlanivimab to fight COVID-19 and strengthen our conviction that monoclonal antibodies such as bamlanivimab can play a critical role in turning the tide of this pandemic. We're glad bamlanivimab is already available as a treatment for patients at high risk for progressing to severe COVID-19 illness or hospitalization, including those in nursing homes, and look forward to working with regulators to explore expanding the emergency use authorization to prevent the spread of COVID-19 in these facilities."

    An independent data and safety monitoring board oversaw the BLAZE-2 trial. In the trial, the safety profile of bamlanivimab was consistent with observations from the Phase 1 and Phase 2 trials. Serious adverse events were reported at a similar frequency in the bamlanivimab and placebo groups. Across multiple clinical trials, Lilly now has collected safety and efficacy data in more than 4,000 patients treated with bamlanivimab, either alone or administered together with another antibody.

    "The results of this innovative study further support the belief that bamlanivimab – and potentially other monoclonal antibodies – can reduce symptoms and may even prevent COVID-19," said Myron S. Cohen, M.D., CoVPN co-principal investigator and director of the Institute for Global Health and Infectious Diseases at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. "The antiviral activity seen with bamlanivimab treatment emphasizes the importance of early intervention to help counter the devastating impact the virus has had in this vulnerable population and other high-risk patients."

    BLAZE-2 is a first-of-its-kind COVID-19 trial designed to evaluate this vulnerable population by addressing the challenging aspects of running a clinical trial in long-term care facilities, which normally do not conduct clinical trials. The study is sponsored by Lilly and conducted in partnership with NIAID, part of the NIH, along with the CoVPN and numerous long-term care facility networks across the country. BLAZE-2 is ongoing as an open-label trial evaluating bamlanivimab alone or administered together with another antibody as a treatment for high-risk individuals (residents and staff) diagnosed with COVID-19 at these long-term care facilities. The full results from BLAZE-2 will be presented at a future medical congress and submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed clinical journal.

    Bamlanivimab is authorized for emergency use by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for the treatment of mild to moderate COVID-19 in high-risk patients. For more information about the use of bamlanivimab, contact Lilly's 24-hour support line at 1-855-LillyC19 (1-855-545-5921). Patients and physicians can visit covid.infusioncenter.org or the HHS Therapeutics Distribution locator to find a potential treatment location near you. Visit combatcovid.hhs.gov to find out more about antibody therapy.

    Important Information about bamlanivimab


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,155 ✭✭✭✭Jim_Hodge


    Tony Holohan really helping the overall mood of the nation with his prediction of a 1000 deaths before the month is out. Meanwhile, some of his contemporaries prefer to post positive news around the vaccine.

    What is Holohan's scaremongering trying to achieve? Like, we know this particular wave is bad, but it's not like our lockdown is contributing to it. We as a populace have done all we've been asked of, apart from a few cases of knuckle-draggers breaking the 5KM to get fecking fast food.

    If he sugar-coated it you'd be complaining too. The man has to outline the facts.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,578 ✭✭✭✭Turtwig


    Tony Holohan really helping the overall mood of the nation with his prediction of a 1000 deaths before the month is out. Meanwhile, some of his contemporaries prefer to post positive news around the vaccine.

    What is Holohan's scaremongering trying to achieve? Like, we know this particular wave is bad, but it's not like our lockdown is contributing to it. We as a populace have done all we've been asked of, apart from a few cases of knuckle-draggers breaking the 5KM to get fecking fast food.

    It's his job to inform the Minister of Health of the various modeling scenarios. This includes projected deaths. What's next you expect AA traffic reports to stop report traffic jams because they inconvenience you?

    Tony didn't make the deaths announcement in a public address. He made them in an advisory letter to the Government. It wasn't directed at the public.


This discussion has been closed.
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