2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

Timing belt · 20-01-2021 06:43PM

PropQueries wrote: »

But back to the big property news story of the day.

Glenveagh has sold their apartments in the Marina Village to the same fund that bought the Herbert Hill development in Dundrum... which means it's most likely social housing is coming to the Marina Village in Greystones IMO

Why not change the topic now that you are not able to back up your figures.... Lets hope people forget and you can use them again in a few weeks...

Idbatterim · 20-01-2021 06:43PM

PropQueries wrote: »

But back to the big property news story of the day.

Glenveagh has sold their apartments in the Marina Village to the same fund that bought the Herbert Hill development in Dundrum... which means it's most likely social housing is coming to the Marina Village in Greystones IMO

why dont the council buy them? perception images or the fact they would have to manage and maintain them most likely? outrageous laziness, the same issue that has lead to the housing crisis...

PropQueries · 20-01-2021 06:50PM

Timing belt wrote: »

Yes this is correct there were 2509 reconnections that year as the bank disposed of 2260 properties. At the same time the banks took 3413 new properties into repossession so in 2017 there was a reduction in supply by 1200 properties due to this.

In addition to the ESB reconnections there was 1364 Ghost houses etc were brought back to the market. (This was the last year such a large no were brought back and figures are down do 200/300 for a year now)

Net impact on housing stock for 2017 was an increase of 217 properties and not the 5k (or 2.5k) you are claiming.

This proves that you are over estimating supply when you pick and choose your stats.

Depends on whether the majority of those repossessions were occupied at the time? If not they don't cancel out the re-connections which makes the re-connections real additional supply?

MacronvFrugals · 20-01-2021 06:52PM

Phil Hogan took any teeth the councils had long ago in fairness...

"The most radical reform of local government in over 100 years"

https://www.finegael.ie/the-most-radical-reform-of-local-government-in-over-100-years/

hometruths · 20-01-2021 07:04PM

Marius34 wrote: »

Because 3-4 people lives in 5 rooms house (3 bedrooms+1living+1dining). This is very common setup in Ireland, but not in other countries. In other countries most common setup is 3 rooms apartment (2 bedrooms + 1 living room integrated with dining). And bedroom typically are much bigger.

I would think the most common set up is 2 adults + 2 kids. So that is 4 people to 5 rooms or 1.25 rooms per person. If it is 3 people in the 3 bed semi then it would be 1.67 rooms per person.

The EU average is 1.6 per person. We are at 2.1 rooms per person. So by your own demonstration, it is not true to say "Many families with kids live in 3 bed houses, which means they live in under-occupied property."

You're clutching at straws here.

Timing belt · 20-01-2021 07:04PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Depends on whether the majority of those repossessions were occupied at the time? If not they don't cancel out the re-connections which makes the re-connections real additional supply?

A bank will only repossess a property as a last resort as it requires the occupant to leave the property.

The situation where a individual stays in a house that is in arrears and likely to become repossessed but instead comes to an arrangement with the bank (paying rent etc.) is not classified as a repossession.

Timing belt · 20-01-2021 07:11PM

MacronvFrugals · 20-01-2021 07:29PM

Timing belt wrote: »

Very interesting, thanks for posting

Timing belt · 20-01-2021 08:22PM

Timing belt wrote: »

I have also calculated the date which you were financially better off owning the property rather than renting.

This is assuming that you bought at the very top of the peak of the property bubble.

Cheaper to Rent up to: Negative Equity ends
2.5% 20 Yrs 01/08/2013 01/06/2015
5% 20 Yrs 01/11/2013 01/06/2016
7.5% 20 Yrs 01/03/2014 01/11/2016
2.5% 30 YRS 01/04/2014 01/07/2017
5% 30 YR 01/06/2014 01/01/2018
7.5% 30 Yr 01/08/2014 01/10/2020

(The Rent figure was 1,500 in April 2007 and has been indexed up on a monthly basis using the CPI data. The results of which give a for 2020 of 2,150 for a 3 bed house in Dublin.)

Idbatterim · 20-01-2021 08:30PM

PropQueries wrote: »

But back to the big property news story of the day.

Glenveagh has sold their apartments in the Marina Village to the same fund that bought the Herbert Hill development in Dundrum... which means it's most likely social housing is coming to the Marina Village in Greystones IMO

LOL! Do you have a link? Reckon I should voluntarily increase my taxes to revenue, get them a bm or merc too, sorry, sure dont all the workers drive them. If they are already getting far better standard accomodation that workers are for free, why stop at that, throw in the rolls royce too ( an entry level one mind you)...

PropQueries · 20-01-2021 09:01PM

Idbatterim wrote: »

LOL! Do you have a link? Reckon I should voluntarily increase my taxes to revenue, get them a bm or merc too, sorry, sure dont all the workers drive them. If they are already getting far better standard accomodation that workers are for free, why stop at that, throw in the rolls royce too ( an entry level one mind you)...

Posted link earlier on in day so only reposting caused asked:

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/german-investor-to-acquire-greystones-apartments-for-60m-1.4462425

The Rolls Royce may not be too far off the mark given that it’s the only thing that explains the cost difference between the cost of building private homes and the cost DCC stated it costs them to build.

Marius34 · 20-01-2021 09:04PM

schmittel wrote: »

I would think the most common set up is 2 adults + 2 kids. So that is 4 people to 5 rooms or 1.25 rooms per person. If it is 3 people in the 3 bed semi then it would be 1.67 rooms per person.

The EU average is 1.6 per person. We are at 2.1 rooms per person. So by your own demonstration, it is not true to say "Many families with kids live in 3 bed houses, which means they live in under-occupied property."

You're clutching at straws here.

As you say yourself Ireland has more rooms per person.

Almost 3 out of every 4 homes are defined as under-occupied. Which means typical home in Ireland is under-occupied. What you expect, why most of the typical homes in Ireland are defined as under-occupied?

beauf · 20-01-2021 09:16PM

schmittel wrote: »

No doubt there is a reason for it. But it still suggests we don’t need to build 30k new properties a year.

You're assuming that those properties that are under used are in good condition, or useful location, or not locked into the fair deal or some other legal tangle. The report suggested it was a aging population, in a society that usually had larger families, so when children leave the nest they leave behind empty rooms.

At European level, around three in ten households (28.8 %) include children. At the top of the scale, children were present in more than one third of households in Ireland, Poland, Romania, Cyprus, Slovakia and Portugal. At the opposite end, in Sweden, Germany and Finland, the presence of children was observed in fewer than one in four households.

Households with one child are the most common among households with children. In 2019, in the EU-27, almost half of the households with children only included one child (47.4 %). Portugal, Bulgaria, Lithuania and Latvia showed the highest shares of households with only one child i.e. ranging between 55 % and 58 %. However, in Sweden, Ireland and the Netherlands, households with one child constituted 40 % or less of households with children. This means that households with 2 children or more were most frequent in those countries (see Figure 8). At European level, four in ten households with children (39.9 %) include two children. In five EU Member States (i.e. Luxembourg, Croatia, the Netherlands, Ireland and Sweden) as well as in North Macedonia and Montenegro, households with two children are the most frequent households with children. In those countries, there are more households with two children than with one child. In Ireland and Finland, more than one in five households with children (25.2 % and 20.3 % respectively) recorded 3 children or more. This is also the case in Turkey (25.9 %) and Montenegro (25.7 %). In Bulgaria (6.2 %), Portugal (6.7 %), Italy (8.1 %), Lithuania (9.0 %) and Spain (9.1 %), fewer than one in ten households with children had three children or more.

Again this is in the context of most of use live in houses than apartments. Houses tend to have more rooms than apartments. Especially when (IMO) we tend to build smaller apartments then perhaps they do elsewhere.

Theres also a lot of rural living vs the EU average.

Just over three in ten people in Ireland (31.4%) lived in a rural area1, above the rate of 27.3% in the EU. The highest proportion of people in the EU living in rural areas was 54.9% in Lithuania. In all other EU countries less than 50% of the population live in rural areas, with the lowest proportion in Malta at 0.2%.

hometruths · 20-01-2021 09:22PM

Marius34 wrote: »

As you say yourself Ireland has more rooms per person.

Yes but clearly not because families with kids are living in 3 bed semis like you said.

Marius34 wrote: »

Almost 3 out of every 4 homes are defined as under-occupied. Which means typical home in Ireland is under-occupied. What you expect, why most of the typical homes in Ireland are defined as under-occupied?

I suspect it is because a lot of couples without kids living in 3 bed semis.

Whatever the reason is I'd like to see more govt level acknowledgement/discussion/analysis of this, so we have a better understanding of why this is so, and is there anything we can do differently.

For example, what the long term average is in Ireland? 50% - 70% - 80%? That is valuable information.

Also where is this concentrated. If it is all down to the fact that the kids of Leitrim got out of there as fast as possible, then yes, there is nothing to see here. But what is the actual data in high demand areas etc etc?

Marius34 · 20-01-2021 09:37PM

schmittel wrote: »

Yes but clearly not because families with kids are living in 3 bed semis like you said.

I suspect it is because a lot of couples without kids living in 3 bed semis.

Whatever the reason is I'd like to see more govt level acknowledgement/discussion/analysis of this, so we have a better understanding of why this is so, and is there anything we can do differently.

For example, what the long term average is in Ireland? 50% - 70% - 80%? That is valuable information.

Also where is this concentrated. If it is all down to the fact that the kids of Leitrim got out of there as fast as possible, then yes, there is nothing to see here. But what is the actual data in high demand areas etc etc?

Yes, I believe there can be as well many couples without kids living in 3 bed homes, but equally I think there can be easily 1 in 4 homes of 3 bed with children (kids or adults). Don't think there is massive difference from other west europe countries. Where as the typo of dwellings are very different from rest of Europe, with more rooms but less living space. And report only looks at the number of rooms.

beauf · 20-01-2021 09:41PM

schmittel wrote: »

Yes but clearly not because families with kids are living in 3 bed semis like you said.

I suspect it is because a lot of couples without kids living in 3 bed semis.

Whatever the reason is I'd like to see more govt level acknowledgement/discussion/analysis of this, so we have a better understanding of why this is so, and is there anything we can do differently.

For example, what the long term average is in Ireland? 50% - 70% - 80%? That is valuable information.

Also where is this concentrated. If it is all down to the fact that the kids of Leitrim got out of there as fast as possible, then yes, there is nothing to see here. But what is the actual data in high demand areas etc etc?

There's more to than that. The costs to change, downsize, and risks are very high. We also have a lot of small family farms. Threads are full of people inheriting small farms, but don't want to be the person to sell it, but they already have a life in the city.

Timing belt · 20-01-2021 09:52PM

schmittel wrote: »

Yes but clearly not because families with kids are living in 3 bed semis like you said.

I suspect it is because a lot of couples without kids living in 3 bed semis.

Whatever the reason is I'd like to see more govt level acknowledgement/discussion/analysis of this, so we have a better understanding of why this is so, and is there anything we can do differently.

For example, what the long term average is in Ireland? 50% - 70% - 80%? That is valuable information.

Also where is this concentrated. If it is all down to the fact that the kids of Leitrim got out of there as fast as possible, then yes, there is nothing to see here. But what is the actual data in high demand areas etc etc?

The data you are looking for can be found on the CSO data bank under E1002 - Private Households 2011 to 2016

The average number of people living in each property type in Dublin City is as follows:
DUBLIN CITY 2011 2016 2011 2016
No of people per Unit No of people per Unit % of Housing Stock % of Housing Stock
Detached house 2.90 2.97 5% 5%
Semi- detached house 2.80 2.84 23% 23%
Terraced house 2.54 2.60 36% 35%
Flat or apartment in a converted house or commercial building 1.72 1.81 5% 6%
Flat or apartment in a purpose- built block 1.99 2.11 26% 29%
Bed-sit 1.28 1.38 2% 1%
Caravan, mobile or other temporary structure 2.50 3.47 0% 0%
Not stated 2.32 2.72 3% 2%

hometruths · 20-01-2021 09:57PM

@beauf - to remind you:

70% of people live in houses that are too big for their needs. Twice the EU Average. i.e we are a significant outlier

Only 3.2pc of the Irish population were classified as living in overcrowded households in 2019 - the EU average is 17.2% - i.e we are a significant outlier

beauf wrote: »

You're assuming that those properties that are under used are in good condition, or useful location, or not locked into the fair deal or some other legal tangle.

By the sounds of things you're assuming that these properties are in poor condition, or in low demand location, or tied up somehow, but is that really credible?!

Again, for emphasis, we're talking about 70% - almost 3/4 of the population - approx 3.4 million people.

Yes I am assuming that a large amount of those properties are:

a) in good condition, or habitable at least. If 3.4m people were living in uninhabitable properties the pandemic would be the least of our health concerns.

b) in a useful location. It makes sense that a fair chunk of these 3.4m people live in the most populated areas where the highest demand is. It's 3.4 million people - over double the population of Dublin.

c) not locked into the fair deal or some other legal tangle. Again, it's 3.4m people. Our demographics suggest it is safe to assume it's not a fair deal thing. And whilst I'd be at the front of the queue to complain about the fact we're an outlier for legal issues with repos etc, even I would not claim that 3.4m people are in some sort of dispute with their bank.

I'd agree a lot of is to do with empty nesters, but it cannot possibly explain the 70%.

And the stats you quote re children don't tell us anything, except that Ireland is not an outlier, never mind a significant outlier, in these measures. It cannot explain the sheer weight of numbers living in underoccupied houses.

Like Marius, you're clutching at straws to find a way to explain this that fits with the housing shortage story.

There may be a good reason but whatever it is, it's not what you're assuming.

beauf · 20-01-2021 09:59PM

I was referring to the 30,000 not the 70%...

I didn't say it was any one thing. I said there was a multiplicity of factors.

hometruths · 20-01-2021 10:00PM

Timing belt wrote: »

The data you are looking for can be found on the CSO data bank under E1002 - Private Households 2011 to 2016

The average number of people living in each property type in Dublin City is as follows:
DUBLIN CITY 2011 2016 2011 2016
No of people per Unit No of people per Unit % of Housing Stock % of Housing Stock
Detached house 2.90 2.97 5% 5%
Semi- detached house 2.80 2.84 23% 23%
Terraced house 2.54 2.60 36% 35%
Flat or apartment in a converted house or commercial building 1.72 1.81 5% 6%
Flat or apartment in a purpose- built block 1.99 2.11 26% 29%
Bed-sit 1.28 1.38 2% 1%
Caravan, mobile or other temporary structure 2.50 3.47 0% 0%
Not stated 2.32 2.72 3% 2%

What I really want to know is the EU report found that 70% were classified as living in underoccupied houses in 2019 - what was that figure in 2016, 2011, etc etc. Don't think the census tells us that.

hometruths · 20-01-2021 10:01PM

beauf wrote: »

I was referring to the 30,000 not the 70%...

I didn't say it was any one thing. I said there was a multiplicity of factors.

Eh? What 30,000?

beauf · 20-01-2021 10:04PM

We've been here before. Built tiny apartments in the 90s then, apartments and ghost estates where no one wanted them in the 2000s.

Investors building luxury apartments, that no one can afford, and then leave them empty for years.

beauf · 20-01-2021 10:05PM

schmittel wrote: »

No doubt there is a reason for it. But it still suggests we don’t need to build 30k new properties a year.

This 30k. There no reason to think they can all move in with whom ever has a free room, where ever it may be.

Timing belt · 20-01-2021 10:06PM

schmittel wrote: »

What I really want to know is the EU report found that 70% were classified as living in underoccupied houses in 2019 - what was that figure in 2016, 2011, etc etc. Don't think the census tells us that.

Not a lot will have changed from 2016 to 2019

Marius34 · 20-01-2021 10:09PM

schmittel wrote: »

Like Marius, you're clutching at straws to find a way to explain this that fits with the housing shortage story.

There may be a good reason but whatever it is, it's not what you're assuming.

I'm telling you a simple reason. Homes in Ireland has more rooms, typically 3 bed (5 in total), but smaller in size, what is not clear here?

hometruths · 20-01-2021 10:11PM

beauf wrote: »

This 30k.

Ah I see. I say "But it still suggests we don’t need to build 30k new properties a year" and you reply "You're assuming that those properties that are under used are in good condition, or useful location, or not locked into the fair deal or some other legal tangle." and you're talking about the new builds?!

Well yes of course I am assuming new build properties will be in good condition, a useful location and most obviously of all not locked into the fair deal or some other legal tangle!

You've barely laid a fingertip on that particular straw you're trying to clutch.

hometruths · 20-01-2021 10:17PM

Marius34 wrote: »

I'm telling you a simple reason. Homes in Ireland has more rooms, typically 3 bed (5 in total), but smaller in size, what is not clear here?

What is not clear is how families with kids living in 3 bed semis explains why 70% of our population lives in underoccupied houses and our average number of rooms per person is 2.1.

As in:

Marius34 wrote: »

It's due to the dwelling types. It would be different if it would be based on square meters. Irish bedrooms are very small, living rooms too. Many families with kids live in 3 bed houses, which means they live in under-occupied property.

and

Marius34 wrote: »

Because 3-4 people lives in 5 rooms house (3 bedrooms+1living+1dining). This is very common setup in Ireland, but not in other countries. In other countries most common setup is 3 rooms apartment (2 bedrooms + 1 living room integrated with dining). And bedroom typically are much bigger.

hometruths · 20-01-2021 10:25PM

Timing belt wrote: »

Not a lot will have changed from 2016 to 2019

Yep hence why I said long term average (and 2016, 2011 etc etc).

If we knew the long term average, and what way it was trending we'd have a better idea if this is some sort of cultural thing - i.e we just live differently - and ask do we need/want to continue that?

Or if we discovered that 70% is an anomaly and long term is closer to something like 55% we'd know that at some stage it is likely to revert to the mean and we'd need to be prepared for that.

beauf · 20-01-2021 10:28PM

schmittel wrote: »

Ah I see. I say "But it still suggests we don’t need to build 30k new properties a year" and you reply "You're assuming that those properties that are under used are in good condition, or useful location, or not locked into the fair deal or some other legal tangle." and you're talking about the new builds?!

Well yes of course I am assuming new build properties will be in good condition, a useful location and most obviously of all not locked into the fair deal or some other legal tangle!

You've barely laid a fingertip on that particular straw you're trying to clutch.

You're premise behind this whole saga with rooms was we don't need 30k new builds we have enough stock with the unused capacity we have. I'm saying this unused capacity, or more rooms per person and the EU average, is that a certain % of these rooms are likely not useful for the 50k of people immigrating here every year pre Covid, or people moving out of home hardly want to move into someone elses empty nest when they've just moved out of their own. Or a hundred other scenerio's.

This is a very long winded way I assume of trying to say there isn't a supply issue, that at some point it will all blow up, and there will cheap houses for all, except the rich people. Because thats a summary of the Irish property Market thread here for the last 3 or more years.

Marius34 · 20-01-2021 10:30PM

schmittel wrote: »

What is not clear is how families with kids living in 3 bed semis explains why 70% of our population lives in underoccupied houses and our average number of rooms per person is 2.1.

Because there are as well homes with 1 person, or 2 persons. There are all kind of households like in any other European countries. There are empty old country side homes, there are holiday homes, like anywhere else.
Families with 1-2 children of course doesn't explain all the 70%. But it explain big portion of difference from other countries. Which is due to accommodation type difference from rest of Europe. Smaller dwellings, but with more rooms.

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1