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Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

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Comments

  • #7382
    Amirani
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 12,554 Mod ✭✭✭✭Amirani


    Kunta Kinte wrote: »
    And what about the people who still claim they have been going to house parties, shebeens etc. Is that just trash talk? If that had been happening to a wide extent since the start of the New Year surely it would be reflected in the cases by now.

    These are happening and they are having an impact on cases (but it's small).

    What matters is you have like 90-95% of the population complying. It doesn't matter so much what the remainder do then, their potential to spread is greatly diminished.


  • #7383
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    marno21 wrote: »
    Tuesdays are indeed lower but:

    Tuesday January 5th: 4426 +ve from 19,869 (22.28%)
    Tuesday January 12th: 2456 +ve from 17,765 (13.82%)
    Tuesday Januaty 19th: 1682 +ve from 18,559 (9.06%)

    Bit of a trend going on there...
    Might expect close contact testing to resume pretty soon.


  • #7384
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Might expect close contact testing to resume pretty soon.
    Tony was eager to get it started as soon as humanly possible. 2,000 cases seems to be the limit for contact tracing, so they might wait until tomorrow's cases before deciding it's OK to resume.


  • #7385
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    zuutroy wrote: »
    I love these statements of fact about schools based on absolutely no information.
    It is government policy to have them open. They will still be looking at 1 February as an opening date unless otherwise advised.


  • #7386
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    seamus wrote: »
    Tony was eager to get it started as soon as humanly possible. 2,000 cases seems to be the limit for contact tracing, so they might wait until tomorrow's cases before deciding it's OK to resume.
    Yeah, think Reid said average contacts and positivity rates were also part of that decision.


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  • #7387
    fred funk }{
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭fred funk }{


    Kunta Kinte wrote: »
    And what about the people who still claim they have been going to house parties, shebeens etc. Is that just trash talk? If that had been happening to a wide extent since the start of the New Year surely it would be reflected in the cases by now.

    Just a side note - All the hysteria about finding a shebeen amazes me. Infact MSM seem to have a horn for reprting it and when plane loads of South Africans, Brits and Brazilians are flooding in to the country untested it's small fry compared to a few old boys in a shed having a few beers.


  • #7388
    Talisman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,687 ✭✭✭Talisman


    seamus wrote: »
    Even the teenagers aren't out mixing on the street.
    That's certainly not the case around Dublin 7.


  • #7389
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,182 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    European Commission ''says that by summer 2021, member states should have vaccinated a minimum of 70% of the adult population.'' Maybe we should pool our resources, send over a few Danes to get things sped up a bit here..

    Also interesting to see an idea of vaccination certificate that would be recognised across the EU.


    https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0119/1190747-covid-europe-vaccines/


  • #7390
    Eivor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 168 ✭✭Eivor


    fred funk }{ wrote: »
    Just a side note - All the hysteria about finding a shebeen amazes me. Infact MSM seem to have a horn for reprting it and when plane loads of South Africans, Brits and Brazilians are flooding in to the country untested it's small fry compared to a few old boys in a shed having a few beers.

    Yeah I don’t get it either. I technically have a bar in my sitting room and serve cocktails to family if they visit (when we were still allowed have family visit). Is that a shebeen? Worse than plane loads of infected coming in?


  • #7391
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    A shebeen now is more than having someone over for a cocktail. It's basically an unlicensed pub.

    I imagine a large number of them have actually been operating for years, but are only in the spotlight now because they didn't have the good sense to shut down. So when Mick from down the road is stumbling home every night, it doesn't taken a brain surgeon to figure it out.

    The impact of them is very minor though I reckon.


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  • #7392
    CruelSummer
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,336 ✭✭✭CruelSummer


    seamus wrote: »
    Hospitals will still be a mess at the end of the month. Numbers in hospital will be dropping, but they'll still be very high.

    The argument will be that allowing any new surge of the virus at this stage could result very quickly in the hospitals being overwhelmed.

    NPHET might make the case for another two weeks to allow more breathing space in hospitals and for the vaccination of group 3 to get well underway.

    Potentially even lower.

    I disagree, schools should be reopened at the start of February if this trend continues. Mid term will also help break up the return. Education is a mess at the moment between special schools, remote learning, etc. The sooner it returns the better. Schools were open in November with high cases and they came down while they were open.


  • #7393
    Sofa King Great
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 872 ✭✭✭Sofa King Great


    Eod100 wrote: »
    European Commission ''says that by summer 2021, member states should have vaccinated a minimum of 70% of the adult population.''

    Thats all well and good for the southern countries that have a full summer. We only have one or two days of it and don't know when that will be yet! Could be may or could be september


  • #7394
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,880 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    CruelSummer wrote: »
    I disagree, schools should be reopened at the start of February if this trend continues. Mid term will also help break up the return. Education is a mess at the moment between special schools, remote learning, etc. The sooner it returns the better. Schools were open in November with high cases and they came down while they were open.

    Nowhere near as high as they are now IIRC. It looks like cases will have fallen significantly by the end of January, but you can't make any assumptions with this virus.


  • #7395
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,348 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    monkeybutter wrote: »
    how is not testing close contacts affecting this though?

    I would argue testing the asymptomatic close contacts (the symptomatic ones are being tested) will only bring down the positivity rate


  • #7396
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    CruelSummer wrote: »
    I disagree, schools should be reopened at the start of February if this trend continues. Mid term will also help break up the return. Education is a mess at the moment between special schools, remote learning, etc. The sooner it returns the better. Schools were open in November with high cases and they came down while they were open.
    "Should" and "will" are two different things :)

    It all boils down to the movement of people. If NPHET advise holding off, then they will.

    I wonder will they move to open creches earlier than schools. And maybe secondary earlier than primary.


  • #7397
    Psychedelic Hedgehog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 498 ✭✭Psychedelic Hedgehog


    It's clear that schools being open didn't contribute to the recent peak, but I think it makes sense to hold off on opening for a while longer, just so the level of community transmission drops off.

    A couple of extra weeks won't make much difference (and yes, I have a child who's missing school desperately).


  • #7398
    CruelSummer
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,336 ✭✭✭CruelSummer


    Loafing Oaf wrote: »
    Nowhere near as high as they are now IIRC. It looks like cases will have fallen significantly by the end of January, but you can't make any assumptions with this virus.

    I can make assumptions based on past experience in October / November when schools were open. When cases get to a certain level, I don't believe there is justification for the enormous cost of ceasing Education and engaging in stop gap remote learning. It's early days but most certainly the option should be on the table if the trend continues.


  • #7399
    DraftDodger
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 284 ✭✭DraftDodger


    Schools won't be opening at the end of the month people need to get that thought out of their heads. Sending a million people back into small rooms would be a disaster for controlling this thing.


  • #7400
    prunudo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,116 ✭✭✭prunudo


    Given that we're at about 2-3.5k the last few days and they are still testing approx 20k daily, where are this extra tests coming from if they're not testing all close contacts. Especially given close contacts are supposed to be less than 3 at the moment so you'd still be less than 10k daily tests.
    I wonder are a lot of close contacts over playing symptoms to their gp's to get tested for peace of mind


  • #7401
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    DraftDodger wrote: »
    Sending a million people back into small rooms would be a disaster for controlling this thing.
    The "million people in small rooms" is not the concern. We know that doesn't contribute to growth.

    It's the 500,000 people dropping them off, chatting at the school gates, dropping into the shops, generally circulating, that are the cause for concern.
    prunudo wrote: »
    Given that we're at about 2-3.5k the last few days and they are still testing approx 20k daily, where are this extra tests coming from if they're not testing all close contacts. Especially given close contacts are supposed to be less than 3 at the moment so you'd still be less than 10k daily tests.
    I wonder are a lot of close contacts over playing symptoms to their gp's to get tested for peace of mind
    Yeah, there's some of that. They also resumed mass testing in high-risk settings this week IIRC.

    There's also an underlying base number of healthcare workers and hospital patients who are being tested on a continuous basis.


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  • #7402
    CruelSummer
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,336 ✭✭✭CruelSummer


    seamus wrote: »
    "Should" and "will" are two different things :)

    It all boils down to the movement of people. If NPHET advise holding off, then they will.

    I think they should scrap any partial reopening now for January and get the numbers well down. Provide emergency home/therapist supports to children with high needs. There are 12 days left until January 31st. If we look back to 12 days ago and see our case numbers...a lot can change in this timeframe if done properly.

    January 7th, 12 days ago - 6, 503 cases of Covid.


  • #7403
    Turtwig
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,578 ✭✭✭✭Turtwig


    prunudo wrote: »
    Given that we're at about 2-3.5k the last few days and they are still testing approx 20k daily, where are this extra tests coming from if they're not testing all close contacts. Especially given close contacts are supposed to be less than 3 at the moment so you'd still be less than 10k daily tests.
    I wonder are a lot of close contacts over playing symptoms to their gp's to get tested for peace of mind

    Serial testing programs such as nursing homes are resuming.


  • #7404
    Kunta Kinte
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 718 ✭✭✭Kunta Kinte


    Sofa King Great wrote: »
    Thats all well and good for the southern countries that have a full summer. We only have one or two days of it and don't know when that will be yet! Could be may or could be september

    Summer in the northern hemisphere is officially regarded as running from 1st June to 31st August. Weather or climactic conditions don`t come into it.


  • #7405
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Eod100 wrote: »
    European Commission ''says that by summer 2021, member states should have vaccinated a minimum of 70% of the adult population.'' Maybe we should pool our resources, send over a few Danes to get things sped up a bit here..

    Also interesting to see an idea of vaccination certificate that would be recognised across the EU.


    https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0119/1190747-covid-europe-vaccines/
    It really needs to be carefully fleshed out how it would be used, especially on personal data and how those who can't or won't get vaccinated would be treated. It has the looks of a backdoor mandatory vaccination, when we are all doing it voluntarily.


  • #7406
    CruelSummer
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,336 ✭✭✭CruelSummer


    DraftDodger wrote: »
    Schools won't be opening at the end of the month people need to get that thought out of their heads. Sending a million people back into small rooms would be a disaster for controlling this thing.

    Most children continue thankfully to not be adversely affected by Covid, even with the new variant. I think tighter controls might be needed in school settings to ensure success of any reopening. The Department could aim for Feb 1st and guarantee test & trace is back up and running, make sure all previous Covid training and procedures still apply, perhaps get parents to sign declarations that their children are not close contacts to allow them return to school. Regular testing of staff should also be on the table until vaccination programme kicks in.


  • #7407
    Gael23
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,151 ✭✭✭✭Gael23


    1610 deaths in the UK


  • #7408
    bb1234567
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    Quite a large increase in RIP.ie death notices this January
    79 pages of notices in the first 19 days of january
    65 in the first 19 days of Jan 2020
    60 in the first 19 days of Jan 2019


  • #7409
    MerlinSouthDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,627 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    Quite a large increase in RIP.ie death notices this January
    79 pages of notices in the first 19 days of january
    65 in the first 19 days of Jan 2020
    60 in the first 19 days of Jan 2019

    Yes - latest analysis from Seamus Coffey here. We are about 30 deaths per day above average at the moment.

    https://twitter.com/seamuscoffey/status/1351515190492332033


  • #7410
    Always_Running
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭Always_Running


    IrishStuff09 wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/COVID19DataIE/status/1351544198105882629


    I see yesterdays 1910 positive swabs is now changed to 1877.


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  • #7411
    Sofa King Great
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 872 ✭✭✭Sofa King Great


    Kunta Kinte wrote: »
    Summer in the northern hemisphere is officially regarded as running from 1st June to 31st August. Weather or climactic conditions don`t come into it.

    Thanks for letting me know. I had assumed the European Commission were actually basing their vaccination targets on when the sun shone in different countries....


This discussion has been closed.
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