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Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

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Comments

  • #7352
    rooney30
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 400 ✭✭rooney30


    If this trend continues for the rest of week and into early next week , hard to hold an argument for keeping schools closed start of feb ?


  • #7353
    acer911
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 570 ✭✭✭acer911


    Probably been asked and answered multiple times at this stage but how have the case numbers been higher than the swabs for the past 5 days in a row?

    Does the previous days announced swaps tie in with the numbers announced the day after or are they still working through a backlog?


  • #7354
    Sweet.Science
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,985 ✭✭✭Sweet.Science


    rooney30 wrote: »
    If this trend continues for the rest of week and into early next week , hard to hold an argument for keeping schools closed start of feb ?

    An extra 2 weeks will be no harm


  • #7355
    Datacore
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 178 ✭✭Datacore


    fred funk }{ wrote: »
    The positivity rate is dropping quicker than lockdown No.1.

    Lockdown 1 was likely triaging and rationing tests much more than now. So you’ll have a far broader testing in this one.


  • #7356
    fred funk }{
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭fred funk }{


    seamus wrote: »
    Lowest positivity rate since Xmas Day.

    I know this feels like the longest fvcking month in history, watching the positivity rates just go up and up since Xmas day, but they've actually dropped almost as quickly as they increased. Maybe only 2-3 days in the difference.

    With any luck, tomorrow will be kind to us. 10-11% positivity would be on trend.

    Would bode well for the end of the month.


    R rate must be 0.5ish with those numbers?


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  • #7357
    Supercell
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,651 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    Eod100 wrote: »
    We're getting there slowly but surely

    https://twitter.com/COVID19DataIE/status/1351544198105882629

    Fantastic, we are getting there, days getting longer, jabs are coming, a lot to be positive about.
    Praying the politicians don't allow another Christmas style free for all at Easter, after that warmer days and more people jabbed should hopefully see the beginning of the end of all this horror show.
    https://www.loughlinstown.ie/

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • #7358
    Datacore
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 178 ✭✭Datacore


    On the backlogs I still can’t understand why they don’t just retrospectively update the figures linked to the day of the swab. Every test is linked to a date and it’s hardly that complex to do that with modern IT.


  • #7359
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    rooney30 wrote: »
    If this trend continues for the rest of week and into early next week , hard to hold an argument for keeping schools closed start of feb ?

    I think any easing of any of the restrictions are going to be extremely cautious

    1 million extra people on the move? I doubt it tbh


  • #7360
    MerlinSouthDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,627 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    seamus wrote: »
    Lowest positivity rate since Xmas Day.

    I know this feels like the longest fvcking month in history, watching the positivity rates just go up and up since Xmas day, but they've actually dropped almost as quickly as they increased. Maybe only 2-3 days in the difference.

    With any luck, tomorrow will be kind to us. 10-11% positivity would be on trend.

    Would bode well for the end of the month.

    It's going very well. I'd highly doubt the new variant is 70% more infectious based on what we've seen over the last 2 weeks. All the data would suggest it is somewhat more infectious, but it doesn't seem to be having the effect people feared.


  • #7361
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Datacore wrote: »
    On the backlogs I still can’t understand why they don’t just retrospectively update the figures linked to the day of the swab. Every test is linked to a date and it’s hardly that complex to do that with modern IT.

    Some HSE IT is so old that it would have been considered modern in the 1970s


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  • #7362
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,178 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    Maxpfizer wrote: »
    When this all blows over I'd love to know more about why we have so many people showing up to be tested and yet less than one in ten actually end up testing positive.

    Are a lot of these tests just the mandatory testing for people who need it for work or travel?

    Just seems wild to me that for every ten people showing up wanting a test 9 of them are fine.

    Guess it's probably a combination of things, GPs not seeing patients and probably erring on the side of caution especially with the number of symptoms could potentially be it. Better to refer a patient who gets a not detected result then not refer someone who could be positive and spread it to other people. So it's as much a public health measure to prevent spread as it is to treat the symptoms.

    Also serial testing in nursing homes and healthcare settings. And not detected doesn't necessarily mean people don't have it, could be a false not detected result due to swab being taken incorrectly or not enough virus in swab etc


  • #7363
    titan18
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,052 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    Hopefully we get back to testing close contacts now. Good numbers today and there's testing capacity based on what it's previously handled. We could be sub 1k by the end of the month all going well


  • #7364
    monkeybutter
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,145 ✭✭✭monkeybutter


    fred funk }{ wrote: »
    R rate must be 0.5ish with those numbers?




    how is not testing close contacts affecting this though?


  • #7365
    MerlinSouthDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,627 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    acer911 wrote: »
    Probably been asked and answered multiple times at this stage but how have the case numbers been higher than the swabs for the past 5 days in a row?

    Does the previous days announced swaps tie in with the numbers announced the day after or are they still working through a backlog?

    It's just a lag effect. It takes time to work through the swabs and decide if they are cases or not. When swab numbers are going up, case numbers are typically lower than swab numbers. When swab numbers are going down, case numbers are typically higher than swab numbers.


  • #7366
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    rooney30 wrote: »
    If this trend continues for the rest of week and into early next week , hard to hold an argument for keeping schools closed start of feb ?
    Hospitals will still be a mess at the end of the month. Numbers in hospital will be dropping, but they'll still be very high.

    The argument will be that allowing any new surge of the virus at this stage could result very quickly in the hospitals being overwhelmed.

    NPHET might make the case for another two weeks to allow more breathing space in hospitals and for the vaccination of group 3 to get well underway.
    fred funk }{ wrote: »
    R rate must be 0.5ish with those numbers?
    Potentially even lower.


  • #7367
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,178 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    Stheno wrote: »
    Some HSE IT is so old that it would have been considered modern in the 1970s

    Probably 1870s tbh. :pac: Heard someone say they're using 15th century technology in form of pen and paper in some cases..


  • #7368
    Sweet.Science
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,985 ✭✭✭Sweet.Science


    seamus wrote: »
    Hospitals will still be a mess at the end of the month. Numbers in hospital will be dropping, but they'll still be very high.

    The argument will be that allowing any new surge of the virus at this stage could result very quickly in the hospitals being overwhelmed.

    NPHET might make the case for another two weeks to allow more breathing space in hospitals and for the vaccination of group 3 to get well underway.

    Potentially even lower.

    Schools staying closed for an extra 2 weeks is no big issue . No point taking any chances now. All going well this could be the last level 5 lockdown


  • #7369
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Historically swabs are lower on Tuesdays (well the last weeks) than surronding days- we will see higher swabs tomorrow.

    Nonetheless progress is good once again after looking a bit shaky last week.

    We can do this. Hold back on schools until mid-late Feb I hope. We want to get the numbers below 500 daily cases consistently before reopening.


  • #7370
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,077 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    acer911 wrote: »
    Probably been asked and answered multiple times at this stage but how have the case numbers been higher than the swabs for the past 5 days in a row?

    Does the previous days announced swaps tie in with the numbers announced the day after or are they still working through a backlog?

    It's very hard to tell really seeing as there was a very big backlog

    Going back to the 12th there has been 762 more cases announced than swabs

    In there some days have been very close cases announced v swabs so hopefully this means that today figure will be close to the 1682 swabs


  • #7371
    Sweet.Science
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,985 ✭✭✭Sweet.Science


    Sleety_Rain wrote: »
    Historically swabs are lower on Tuesdays (well the last weeks) than surronding days- we will see higher swabs tomorrow.

    Nonetheless progress is good once again after looking a bit shaky last week.

    We can do this. Hold back on schools until mid-late Feb I hope. We want to get the numbers below 500 daily cases consistently before reopening.

    The dog on the streets know they are lower on a Tuesday . Its comparing them to last Tuesday . And the one before that


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  • #7372
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,077 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    seamus wrote: »
    Hospitals will still be a mess at the end of the month. Numbers in hospital will be dropping, but they'll still be very high.

    The argument will be that allowing any new surge of the virus at this stage could result very quickly in the hospitals being overwhelmed.

    NPHET might make the case for another two weeks to allow more breathing space in hospitals and for the vaccination of group 3 to get well underway.

    Potentially even lower.

    Yes that's true

    We should move midterm to the start of February 1st to 5th

    Then seriously aim for schools to return piecemeal on the 8th

    Another 20 days for cases to hopefully keep falling and community transmission as well to then


  • #7373
    marno21
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,654 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    Tuesdays are indeed lower but:

    Tuesday January 5th: 4426 +ve from 19,869 (22.28%)
    Tuesday January 12th: 2456 +ve from 17,765 (13.82%)
    Tuesday Januaty 19th: 1682 +ve from 18,559 (9.06%)

    Bit of a trend going on there...


  • #7374
    Gael23
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,151 ✭✭✭✭Gael23


    Supercell wrote: »
    Fantastic, we are getting there, days getting longer, jabs are coming, a lot to be positive about.
    Praying the politicians don't allow another Christmas style free for all at Easter, after that warmer days and more people jabbed should hopefully see the beginning of the end of all this horror show.

    With the over 70s done there is no justification for level 5 into April


  • #7375
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Datacore wrote: »
    On the backlogs I still can’t understand why they don’t just retrospectively update the figures linked to the day of the swab. Every test is linked to a date and it’s hardly that complex to do that with modern IT.

    This thread would be overloaded with "yesterday they said there was only 2,000 cases on Sunday, but now they are saying there was 2,100, spoofers/doom mongers/<insert reactionary moniker of choice here>", and no matter how many times it was explained the same few would continue to repeat the same rhetoric over and over again. No change basically.


  • #7376
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    MerlinSouthDub wrote: »
    It's going very well. I'd highly doubt the new variant is 70% more infectious based on what we've seen over the last 2 weeks. All the data would suggest it is somewhat more infectious, but it doesn't seem to be having the effect people feared.
    It's bad wording to use but with 2.3 contacts per person, most households are now effectively air-gapped.

    Even if the virus was 200 times more infectious, it cannot travel between people who are not in contact.

    For all the moaning of people still going to work and joggers passing too close on the street, it is objectively and subjectively clear that most people are adhering strictly to the rules. Even the teenagers aren't out mixing on the street.


  • #7377
    Kunta Kinte
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 718 ✭✭✭Kunta Kinte


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    Yes that's true

    We should move midterm to the start of February 1st to 5th

    Then seriously aim for schools to return piecemeal on the 8th

    Another 20 days for cases to hopefully keep falling and community transmission as well to then

    Won`t be happening. The majority of schools will not reopen until 22nd Feb at the earliest and I would not be greatly surprised if it is later than that.


  • #7378
    Amirani
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 12,554 Mod ✭✭✭✭Amirani


    Stheno wrote: »
    Some HSE IT is so old that it would have been considered modern in the 1970s

    Testing and tracing system is all brand new technology.

    The public health reporting systems aren't. This has been the limiting factor all the way.


  • #7379
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Amirani wrote: »
    Testing and tracing system is all brand new technology.

    The public health reporting systems aren't. This has been the limiting factor all the way.

    Yeah I meant the CIDR system in fairness


  • #7380
    Kunta Kinte
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 718 ✭✭✭Kunta Kinte


    seamus wrote: »
    It's bad wording to use but with 2.3 contacts per person, most households are now effectively air-gapped.

    Even if the virus was 200 times more infectious, it cannot travel between people who are not in contact.

    For all the moaning of people still going to work and joggers passing too close on the street, it is objectively and subjectively clear that most people are adhering strictly to the rules. Even the teenagers aren't out mixing on the street.

    And what about the people who still claim they have been going to house parties, shebeens etc. Is that just trash talk? If that had been happening to a wide extent since the start of the New Year surely it would be reflected in the cases by now.


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  • #7381
    zuutroy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,854 ✭✭✭zuutroy


    I love these statements of fact about schools based on absolutely no information.


This discussion has been closed.
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