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Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

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  • #7262
    JP Liz V1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 91,227 ✭✭✭✭JP Liz V1


    109 out of 196 in ICU at 6.30pm were on ventilators last night
    https://forumofgames.com/




  • #7263
    Derek Zoolander
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 434 ✭✭Derek Zoolander


    eviltimeban wrote: »
    Positive. A good number to see will be when the number vaccinated has exceeded the total number of cases we've had.

    Whatever the number, I look at it as 94,000 people who won't get Covid.

    except people that have been vaccinated can still get covid

    especially if they only have received the first injection


  • #7264
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,181 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    Sweet.Science wrote: »
    With cases coming down and vaccines going up i think that is overly cautious

    Cases are still very high and will take a while to get them below 1,000 say. Also people won't be fully vaccinated until a week/10 days after the 2nd dose. For most people who have had it so far 2nd dose will be 4 weeks after. So effectively 5 weeks from the first dose for it to be fully effective.


  • #7265
    CrabRevolution
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,961 ✭✭✭CrabRevolution


    AdamD wrote: »
    The idea that seems to come up every now and then that other countries are laughing at us (whether it be for case numbers, levels of restrictions, vaccine rollouts etc.) has always been utterly ludicrous.

    We're a tiny country, other Europeans aren't going about their day wondering about how Ireland are getting on.

    We had people mocking the fact Ireland had the lowest rates in the EU in November, saying nobody cared. Yet now apparently our high rates are the talk of the continent.


  • #7266
    OwenM
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 859 ✭✭✭OwenM


    Sweet.Science wrote: »
    With cases coming down and vaccines going up i think that is overly cautious

    Agree, remember we are testing several multiples of people then we were in March, if the testing infrastructure was in place then the case numbers would have been much higher, by May 1st 2020 (3 months of testing) there had only been 177k tests done in Ireland, we do that in a week now. Cases aren't comparable, hospitalisations and ICU numbers are so this should be a guide as well as the incoming tide of vaccines. If the vaccines don't prevent transmission then case numbers might stay very high with an ever decreasing fraction in hospital or really ill.

    I'm guessing Schools and construction Early Feb, C&C + other retail mid Feb


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  • #7267
    eviltimeban
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭eviltimeban


    Derek Zoolander wrote: »
    except people that have been vaccinated can still get covid

    especially if they only have received the first injection

    Well the risk is lowered. And eventually they'll be 90% or whatever it is.


  • #7268
    Derek Zoolander
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 434 ✭✭Derek Zoolander


    eviltimeban wrote: »
    Well the risk is lowered. And eventually they'll be 90% or whatever it is.

    agreed - initial data from Israel is positive but we don't know yet if people will still spread post vaccination...

    we really need to get the messaging on point - already seeing people in the UK less cautious as soon as they get the first shot


  • #7269
    Renjit
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 949 ✭✭✭Renjit


    titan18 wrote: »
    Would be handy, I think once we get sub 1000, we should be able to open or begin to open the first 3 and then maybe the non essential retail, gyms, hairdressers etc when we get sub 5-600.

    Personally, can't wait to get a proper haircut again. It's about 5 weeks now and getting a bit meh

    I dont see any good unless we have less than 200-300 per week.


  • #7270
    titan18
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,052 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    CrabRevolution wrote: »
    We had people mocking the fact Ireland had the lowest rates in the EU in November, saying nobody cared. Yet now apparently our high rates are the talk of the continent.

    Tbf, far likelier that media will broadcast that country over there is doing terrible as it makes themselves look not bad. Any coverage on they're doing great will go to NZ, Australia etc


  • #7271
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,466 ✭✭✭pauldry


    I think this 3rd wave will turn out to have been the worst once we look back, however and I dont want to appear too negative I just cant see cases going under 1000 any time soon. We will probably have 1 to 2000 cases for a number of weeks and maybe an odd Monday with 8 or 900. But on a more positive note I would say by the end of March the situation will have stablised majorly with vaccines and confirmed cases suppressing the virus somewhat.


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  • #7272
    titan18
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,052 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    Renjit wrote: »
    I dont see any good unless we have less than 200-300 per week.

    I'd be hopeful that things will start reopening late Feb, early March in relation to non essential retail, hairdressers, gyms etc. I think hospitality will still be a while off and likely be outdoor only when it does open too.


  • #7273
    schmoo2k
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,389 ✭✭✭schmoo2k


    As of Jan 18, 2021, IRELAND has improved to a Recovering state from a previous state of Spreading. The infection is slowly decreasing (R = 0.8). There are currently 39,614 active cases. New Cases are currently 22,959 per week, down 44% from a peak of 40,909 per week. New Deaths are currently 190 per week, down 0% from a peak of 190 per week. This is the 7th surge in infections, which started on the week of Dec 15, 2020. With 190 new deaths, this is the worst week so far for deaths during this surge. The Contagion Risk is extremely high at 98.4%. This is the likelihood of meeting an infected person during one hundred random encounters. It appears that the level of social distancing has increased dramatically, resulting in lower levels of infection growth. IRELAND is currently on the HotSpot list due to a high increase in deaths. The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is estimated as 1.9%. This is consistent with the average CFR of 2.3%. Preliminary estimates suggest that 14% of the population may have been infected and are presumed immune. This may be enough to slightly suppress the spread of the virus. This preliminary estimation also implies an Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) of roughly 0.4%. The Short-Term Indicator(STI) suggests that the infection is likely to slow somewhat over the next few days.

    https://covid19.hpccsystems.com/


  • #7274
    fly_agaric
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,332 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    Happydays2020 wrote: »
    Our Government are well aware of this risk based on discussions over last few days on the media.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/state-plans-covid-19-testing-for-lorry-drivers-on-ferries-to-france-1.4461053

    Well, if government had had some level of control over travel as a source of new cases (as NPHET advised them way back in April/May I think + was obviously told it was politically a complete impossibility by govt.), these new "variants" (UK/SA etc) that seem to worry people would have had a far harder time establishing here as rapidly as they did.
    Ah well.


  • #7275
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Derek Zoolander wrote: »
    agreed - initial data from Israel is positive but we don't know yet if people will still spread post vaccination...

    we really need to get the messaging on point - already seeing people in the UK less cautious as soon as they get the first shot
    There's plenty of that about here - Henry has said a year. The UK situation is complicated by Bojo's continuing boasts about how well vaccinations are going and is feeding a false sense of risk.


  • #7276
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,880 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    pauldry wrote: »
    I think this 3rd wave will turn out to have been the worst once we look back, however and I dont want to appear too negative I just cant see cases going under 1000 any time soon. We will probably have 1 to 2000 cases for a number of weeks and maybe an odd Monday with 8 or 900. But on a more positive note I would say by the end of March the situation will have stablised majorly with vaccines and confirmed cases suppressing the virus somewhat.

    Even if the number of cases plateaus as you predict, the vaccination of care home residents will surely slash the death toll, and the number of ICU cases will also fall dramatically with the vaccination of all elderly...


  • #7277
    Turtwig
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,578 ✭✭✭✭Turtwig


    Loafing Oaf wrote: »
    Even if the number of cases plateaus as you predict, the vaccination of care home residents will surely slash the death toll, and the number of ICU cases will also fall dramatically with the vaccination of all elderly...

    Elderly rarely end up in ICU. We're a long way from vaccination of the risk groups to impact hospitalisation. Especially when you consider how effectively some groups have been able to socially "vaccinate" themselves. If the virus is let spread more freely then it's only a matter of time before these groups are permeated with infections.


  • #7278
    Jim_Hodge
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,156 ✭✭✭✭Jim_Hodge


    Loafing Oaf wrote: »
    Even if the number of cases plateaus as you predict, the vaccination of care home residents will surely slash the death toll, and the number of ICU cases will also fall dramatically with the vaccination of all elderly...

    Those being vaccinated at present are not the one's who end up in ICU.


  • #7279
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,077 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    It may be autumn before we can safely meet again, warns Cork ICU expert

    "Head of the ICU at the Mid Western University Regional hospital in Limerick, Dr Catherine Motherway, who hails from Ladysbridge in East Cork, said that two-thirds of ICU capacity is now made up of Covid-patients.

    I imagine it will be late Autumn before there will be enough people vaccinated for us all to get back together again. It's going to be much slower this time around."

    https://www.echolive.ie/corknews/arid-40209647.html

    Woohoo

    Jeez the boat is really being pushed out this week at managing any expectations

    Talk of late autumn which basically means September

    Really gives the country something to look forward to

    Think this type of managing expectations could backfire though

    It's too pessimistic


  • #7280
    Widdensushi
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,548 ✭✭✭Widdensushi


    Jim_Hodge wrote: »
    Those being vaccinated at present are not the one's who end up in ICU.

    The vaccination of healthcare staff will be the biggest factor in decreasing icu numbers, unfortunately so many of the cases in hospital were caught in hospital


  • #7281
    dublin_paul
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 114 ✭✭dublin_paul


    Widdensushi wrote: »
    The vaccination of healthcare staff will be the biggest factor in decreasing icu numbers, unfortunately so many of the cases in hospital were caught in hospital

    They say you can still spread the virus after you're vaccinated, hence why there won't be vaccine passports until such a time as it's proven you cannot spread


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  • #7282
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    Woohoo

    Jeez the boat is really being pushed out this week at managing any expectations

    Talk of late autumn which basically means September

    Really gives the country something to look forward to

    Think this type of managing expectations could backfire though

    It's too pessimistic

    The problem is the media canvassing opinions from anyone they can find and then making headlines out of them. When NPHET or Leo refuse to provide sufficiently gloomy soundbites about restrictions, they go interviewing other random people from the HSE.

    It is perfectly understandable that the Head of ICU at a hospital will have an extremely pessimistic outlook. There's also a certain hopefulness in it for them; many are so exhausted; physically and emotionally; that a national lockdown until the late Summer would be welcomed by them.

    There's also the misuse of words by the media; "Top expert warns that restrictions will be in place until next Christmas". This is used to imply that someone important has said that we will be under lockdown until then.

    When in fact what they may have said is that things like mask-wearing may still be required in some environments like hospitals.

    The word "restrictions" has been doing a lot of heavy lifting for the last year as a way of stoking up fear.


  • #7283
    Akabusi
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,136 ✭✭✭Akabusi


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    It may be autumn before we can safely meet again, warns Cork ICU expert

    "Head of the ICU at the Mid Western University Regional hospital in Limerick, Dr Catherine Motherway, who hails from Ladysbridge in East Cork, said that two-thirds of ICU capacity is now made up of Covid-patients.

    I imagine it will be late Autumn before there will be enough people vaccinated for us all to get back together again. It's going to be much slower this time around."

    https://www.echolive.ie/corknews/arid-40209647.html

    Woohoo

    Jeez the boat is really being pushed out this week at managing any expectations

    Talk of late autumn which basically means September

    Really gives the country something to look forward to

    Think this type of managing expectations could backfire though

    It's too pessimistic

    I agree it, they were a little to conservative last Summer when cases were really low. I hope they can get a better balance this time around. It may be a case of under promise and over deliver.


  • #7284
    Akabusi
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,136 ✭✭✭Akabusi


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    It may be autumn before we can safely meet again, warns Cork ICU expert

    "Head of the ICU at the Mid Western University Regional hospital in Limerick, Dr Catherine Motherway, who hails from Ladysbridge in East Cork, said that two-thirds of ICU capacity is now made up of Covid-patients.

    I imagine it will be late Autumn before there will be enough people vaccinated for us all to get back together again. It's going to be much slower this time around."

    https://www.echolive.ie/corknews/arid-40209647.html

    Woohoo

    Jeez the boat is really being pushed out this week at managing any expectations

    Talk of late autumn which basically means September

    Really gives the country something to look forward to

    Think this type of managing expectations could backfire though

    It's too pessimistic

    I agree, they were a little to conservative last Summer when cases were really low. I hope they can get a better balance this time around. It may be a case of under promise and over deliver.


  • #7285
    MizMix
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 313 ✭✭MizMix


    dublin_paul wrote: »
    They say you can still spread the virus after you're vaccinated, hence why there won't be vaccine passports until such a time as it's proven you cannot spread

    While the study was from a small sample size- early data from Israel is showing the vaccinated (pfizer) don't spread it or are very unlikely to do so. The sample size was too small to say there's no risk but it still looks positive


  • #7286
    Gael23
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,151 ✭✭✭✭Gael23


    Good drop in hospital numbers today. Let’s just hope they are not due to deaths rather than discharges


  • #7287
    Herb Powell
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,097 ✭✭✭Herb Powell


    Datacore wrote: »
    I notice the 6500 healthcare staff absent due to illness is now getting international coverage:

    Radio France:

    https://twitter.com/rfi/status/1351376602882428935?s=21

    There are also various inaccurate rants by National Front MPs about how we are in the Schengen zone (we’re not) and should be immediately cut off from all access to France etc etc

    Sebastien Chenu MP, speaking on BFM-TV, a major French news channel.

    I’m not posting the link as I won’t give that party publicity.

    “ « Les cas de virus variant explosent en Irlande. Et les Irlandais peuvent venir sans aucun contrôles dans notre pays parce qu’ils font partie de la zone Schengen. Pourquoi ne maîtrise-t’on pas notre frontière ? Au nom de quoi n’avons nous pas le droit de nous protéger ? »”

    “Variant virus cases are exploding in Ireland. And the Irish can come to our country without any checks because they are part of the Schengen zone. Why don't we control our border? In the name of what do we not have the right to protect ourselves? "

    So basically are now ammunition for Frexiteers & French equivalent of MAGA supporters.

    Also we’re being blamed for introducing the U.K. variant to Morocco apparently as someone who was in Ireland arrived with it to France and traveled onwards to Morocco by ferry.


    https://twitter.com/le360fr/status/1351294129507094540?s=21

    So basically this outbreak seems to be playing extremely badly for the image of Ireland in the French speaking world.

    Biggest risk is we might lose freight access for Ro-Ro ferries, which would be a total mess given the Brexit situation. Fairly likely they’ll impose conditions on drivers to pass COVID tests etc.

    Well done Xmas partying people. We now have the same reputation as Typhoid Mary.

    Front National dicckheads being MAGA dopes is nothing to do with us whatsoever.


  • #7288
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,077 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    seamus wrote: »
    The problem is the media canvassing opinions from anyone they can find and then making headlines out of them. When NPHET or Leo refuse to provide sufficiently gloomy soundbites about restrictions, they go interviewing other random people from the HSE.

    It is perfectly understandable that the Head of ICU at a hospital will have an extremely pessimistic outlook. There's also a certain hopefulness in it for them; many are so exhausted; physically and emotionally; that a national lockdown until the late Summer would be welcomed by them.

    There's also the misuse of words by the media; "Top expert warns that restrictions will be in place until next Christmas". This is used to imply that someone important has said that we will be under lockdown until then.

    When in fact what they may have said is that things like mask-wearing may still be required in some environments like hospitals.

    The word "restrictions" has been doing a lot of heavy lifting for the last year as a way of stoking up fear.

    Yes thats true in some ways

    I don't think she's on about simple restrictions like mask wearing which I do think will be here for a good while

    Yes maybe a lockfown until summer would be welcomed by some

    Bit of a catch 22 though as you need to keep the majority of people on site

    Most I've spoken to accept nothing will open until April

    Thats 2 and a half further months of not seeing friends family, partners and is a tough ask

    At the end of March we will have all nursing homes, hcws and those over 70 all vaccinated

    At that stage the government better have a plan for reopening society and one thats not the most drawn out in Europe this time

    Having the majority of society shut down until June will not go down well

    Ask people to sacrifice until March and then three more months of no travel to other counties and no social outlets will be an ask too much imo


  • #7289
    gctest50
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,597 ✭✭✭gctest50


    Gael23 wrote: »
    Good drop in hospital numbers today. Let’s just hope they are not due to deaths rather than discharges

    Not great if you have been in hospital though it seems

    " One in eight Covid patients who are discharged from hospital die within 140 days

    https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-news/coronavirus-cases-hospitals-long-covid-19644975 "


  • #7290
    bb1234567
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    gctest50 wrote: »
    Not great if you have been in hospital though it seems

    " One in eight Covid patients who are discharged from hospital die within 140 days

    https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-news/coronavirus-cases-hospitals-long-covid-19644975 "

    While obviously is of concern and warrants further investigation it's kind of a useless study though as there is no control group of people with similar underlying conditions who never caught COVID or were never hospitalised with COVID. It says those who were hospitalised were more likely to be obese, diabetic, hypertensive etc..while it sounds pretty shocking that 12% are dying just a few months after being hospitalised, what is the risk of death for those people under normal circumstances in that time period? I'm sure it's longer but by how much longer? Without knowing that it doesn't tell us much.

    One thing that did worry me though is a thought that this phenomen may be what is contributing to the high excess deaths in in some countries above those confirmed to have died of COVID. Of course the logical opinion was that the excess beyond the official COVID death toll was deaths among people missing treatment for their other illnesses, but as we saw in Ireland lockdown and related restrictions have not actually led to any increase in mortality rate during this period. So it's odd that excess deaths are just so much higher than here in countries like UK, USA, much higher than their confirmed COVID deaths . Just wondered if that may be what is responsible, some people dying months after they are 'recovered' from COVID, because so far there aren't many explanations for these large number of unexplained deaths.


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  • #7291
    crossman47
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,600 ✭✭✭crossman47


    gctest50 wrote: »
    Not great if you have been in hospital though it seems

    " One in eight Covid patients who are discharged from hospital die within 140 days

    https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-news/coronavirus-cases-hospitals-long-covid-19644975 "

    That is really worrying.


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