2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

Timing belt · 18-01-2021 02:58PM

PropQueries wrote: »

It was obviously you who said 0% interest rates would be enough to impact the property market. And I fully agree that my 1% was not near low enough how little interest rates need to rise to severely impact the markets. It was a good point you made IMO

So will you admit you mis=quoted me in your post earlier and for the love of god stop putting spin on everything and stick to the facts.

FYI- A housing crash would be least of our problems as governments, companies funds would all fail

Timing belt · 18-01-2021 03:00PM

PropQueries wrote: »

And by that stage we will have another c. 20,000 new built a-rated units looking for occupants. The way the media appear to be spinning it is that construction just stopped last March and won't start up again until December 2021.

I showed you the data the other day that shows that construction commencements have been heavily impact and will take a year or two to feed in.

Yet again more spin and no facts

PropQueries · 18-01-2021 03:00PM

Timing belt wrote: »

So will you admit you mis=quoted me in your post earlier and for the love of god stop putting spin on everything and stick to the facts.

FYI- A housing crash would be least of our problems as governments, companies funds would all fail

Never mis-quoted you. But if you now believe interest rates rising to 0% won't impact the market, I'll take it back. But, I think your initial 0% argument was spot on.

PropQueries · 18-01-2021 03:02PM

Timing belt wrote: »

I showed you the data the other day that shows that construction commencements have been heavily impact and will take a year or two to feed in.

Yet again more spin and no facts

Commencement? So c. 20,000 new a-rated residential units weren't completed last year? And, another c. 20,000 new a-rated residential units won't most likely be completed this year?

PropQueries · 18-01-2021 03:05PM

Timing belt wrote: »

Tax needs to be implemented in a consistent and fair manner... I think 99% of the population would not have a problem with introducing a tax but all the points I mentioned above and more need to be considered and thought through.

The following shows the difference between rental vacancy rates in Dublin and USA. To assume that it is 100% the same issue may be a mistake.

Dublin City Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown Fingal South Dub
Rental vacancy rate 1.21% 0.41% 0.41% 0.27%

I don't think comparing vacancy rates in Ireland with the united states makes much sense when we don't officially count them.

The states in America officially count them because they tax them in many cases.

Timing belt · 18-01-2021 03:05PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Never mis-quoted you. But if you now believe interest rates rising to 0% won't impact the market, I'll take it back. But, I think your initial 0% argument was spot on.

Originally Posted by PropQueries View Post
As one poster recently made the point, once interest rates move up to zero, not 1%, 4% etc. but zero, the investors sitting on these vacant properties will start demanding some level of return i.e. they will have to/be forced to rent them out.

I never said this so yes you mis-quoted me and you know it.... This is why no-one believes anything you say

PropQueries · 18-01-2021 03:11PM

Timing belt wrote: »

Originally Posted by PropQueries View Post
As one poster recently made the point, once interest rates move up to zero, not 1%, 4% etc. but zero, the investors sitting on these vacant properties will start demanding some level of return i.e. they will have to/be forced to rent them out.

I never said this so yes you mis-quoted me and you know it.... This is why no-one believes anything you say

Ok, I'll take it back and should have worded it differently. No insult intended. Was more stating that you raised the point that 0% interest rates can impact the market and it doesn't have to be the 1%, 2%, 3% or 4% increase that many people believe are needed and seem years and years away.

I still think your initial argument on interest rates just needing to rise to 0% still seems spot-on to me.

JimmyVik · 18-01-2021 03:16PM

PropQueries wrote: »

And by that stage we will have another c. 20,000 new built a-rated units looking for occupants. The way the media appear to be spinning it is that construction just stopped last March and won't start up again until December 2021.

will we fcuk.

Timing belt · 18-01-2021 03:17PM

PropQueries wrote: »

I don't think comparing vacancy rates in Ireland with the united states makes much sense when we don't officially count them.

The census data is not officially counting vacant properties :rolleyes:

JimmyVik · 18-01-2021 03:19PM

Timing belt wrote: »

The census data is not officially counting vacant properties :rolleyes:

Apparently myself and my parents live in vacant properties.
Only found that out last year

Browney7 · 18-01-2021 03:20PM

Timing belt wrote: »

The census data is not officially counting vacant properties :rolleyes:

Not this vacant property counting debate again! Think it's been done to death on here as to whether it's accurate or not or if geodirectory, census or council figures are credible

Timing belt · 18-01-2021 03:23PM

The top 20 areas in Dublin for vacant properties along with the no of rental properties as per 2016 census

Row Labels Total Vacant Properties Household for sale Household for rent Rental Vacancy Rate Household being renovated Owner deceased Owner in nursing home Other reason (incl. no data)
South Dock 516 27 5.23% 148 29% 15 3 4 319
Glencullen 478 38 7.95% 18 4% 2 7 5 408
Blanchardstown-Blakestown 407 56 13.76% 70 17% 7 7 1 266
Grange A 388 16 4.12% 10 3% 139 4 4 215
North Dock B 379 38 10.03% 130 34% 5 8 6 192
Balbriggan Rural 352 15 4.26% 16 5% 4 2 2 313
Pembroke West C 341 32 9.38% 44 13% 14 10 241
Castleknock-Knockmaroon 339 37 10.91% 21 6% 11 12 6 252
Pembroke West B 321 11 3.43% 15 5% 9 2 1 283
Wood Quay B 307 26 8.47% 41 13% 5 3 1 231
North City 305 10 3.28% 123 40% 3 3 166
Royal Exchange A 304 10 3.29% 39 13% 11 2 242
Rathmines West A 283 19 6.71% 24 8% 5 3 3 229
St. Kevin's 273 19 6.96% 55 20% 2 4 2 191
Ballybough B 270 16 5.93% 67 25% 6 11 4 166
Cabra East A 270 22 8.15% 54 20% 9 9 8 168
Mountjoy B 268 6 2.24% 127 47% 9 2 1 123
Pembroke East E 262 28 10.69% 36 14% 2 8 188
Rathmines East A 260 26 10.00% 109 42% 9 8 3 105
Malahide East 255 23 9.02% 16 6% 7 9 6 194

JimmyVik · 18-01-2021 03:33PM

Browney7 wrote: »

Not this vacant property counting debate again! Think it's been done to death on here as to whether it's accurate or not or if geodirectory, census or council figures are credible

I know.
As with everything, there will be chart after chart after chart posted with reasons as to why property prices or stock markets are going to go the way each of us thinks it is.
And yet none of us will acknowledge that we havent a clue at the end of the day.
Hands up - I havent a clue, but i'll have a few guesses along the way.
I'll be right eventually, but only if i stick to the one guess - up or down

hometruths · 18-01-2021 03:50PM

Timing belt wrote: »

Tax needs to be implemented in a consistent and fair manner... I think 99% of the population would not have a problem with introducing a tax but all the points I mentioned above and more need to be considered and thought through.

The following shows the difference between rental vacancy rates in Dublin and USA. To assume that it is 100% the same issue may be a mistake.

Dublin City Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown Fingal South Dub
Rental vacancy rate 1.21% 0.41% 0.41% 0.27%

I presume your %s for Dublin are Geodirectory figures in which they strip out vacancies that they don't count as properly vacant - i.e those for sale/rent/renovation etc?

Do the figures you're quoting for the US do the same - are you comparing apples and apples?

Timing belt · 18-01-2021 03:53PM

schmittel wrote: »

I presume your %s for Dublin are Geodirectory figures in which they strip out vacancies that they don't count as properly vacant - i.e those for sale/rent/renovation etc?

Do the figures you're quoting for the US do the same - are you comparing apples and apples?

I am using CSO data from 2016 Census

USA logic on vacant's is as follows:

• A housing unit is vacant if no one is living in it at the time of the interview, unless its occupants are only temporarily absent.
• In addition, a vacant unit may be one which is entirely occupied by persons who have a usual residence elsewhere.
• Vacant units are excluded if they are exposed to the elements, that is, if the roof, walls, windows, or doors no longer protect the interior from the elements, or if there is positive evidence (such as a sign on the house or block) that the unit is to be demolished or is condemned.
• New units not yet occupied are classified as vacant housing units if construction has reached a point where all exterior windows and doors are installed and final usable floors are in place.
• Also excluded are quarters being used entirely for non-residential purposes, such as a store or an office, or quarters used for the storage of business supplies or inventory, machinery, or agricultural products.
• Vacant sleeping rooms in lodging houses, transient accommodations, barracks, and other quarters not defined as housing units are not included in the statistics.

hometruths · 18-01-2021 03:54PM

Timing belt wrote: »

I am using CSO data from 2016 Census

USA logic on vacant's is as follows:
• A housing unit is vacant if no one is living in it at the time of the interview, unless its occupants are only temporarily absent.

• In addition, a vacant unit may be one which is entirely occupied by persons who have a usual residence elsewhere.

• Vacant units are excluded if they are exposed to the elements, that is, if the roof, walls, windows, or doors no longer protect the interior from the elements, or if there is positive evidence (such as a sign on the house or block) that the unit is to be demolished or is condemned.

• New units not yet occupied are classified as vacant housing units if construction has reached a point where all exterior windows and doors are installed and final usable floors are in place.

• Also excluded are quarters being used entirely for non-residential purposes, such as a store or an office, or quarters used for the storage of business supplies or inventory, machinery, or agricultural products.

• Vacant sleeping rooms in lodging houses, transient accommodations, barracks, and other quarters not defined as housing units are not included in the statistics.

Sorry my mistake, didn't spot label rental vacancy.

Timing belt · 18-01-2021 03:56PM

schmittel wrote: »

Sorry my mistake, didn't spot label rental vacancy.

This shows the all the vacancies as per the criteria I shared

Dwarf.Shortage · 18-01-2021 04:14PM

On the shared equity scheme / developer subsidy.

For a couple on €80k combined with €50k deposit you have total spending power:
Before: (80*3.5 + 50 + 30) = 360k
After: (80*3.5/0.7 + 50 + 30) = 480k

Please tell me this isn't how it works because if it is prices of new builds are going to explode, it's a massive jump in budget and will be across the board.

Timing belt · 18-01-2021 04:23PM

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

On the shared equity scheme / developer subsidy.

For a couple on €80k combined with €50k deposit you have total spending power:
Before: (80*3.5 + 50 + 30) = 360k
After: (80*3.5/0.7 + 50 + 30) = 480k

Please tell me this isn't how it works because if it is prices of new builds are going to explode, it's a massive jump in budget and will be across the board.

I assume the 30 is HTB and i doubt you will get that as it is a separate scheme.

So Max would be 450k.

Government only have funding of 75m so that would be circa.750 properties.

They are trying to get the banks to add another 75m

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40208798.html

Dwarf.Shortage · 18-01-2021 04:25PM

Timing belt wrote: »

I assume the 30 is HTB and i doubt you will get that as it is a separate scheme.

So Max would be 450k.

Government only have funding of 75m so that would be circa.750 properties.

They are trying to get the banks to add another 75m

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40208798.html

You get the HTB as well, 100% I have read as much in multiple articles.

Even if you were right the difference remains huge.

Timing belt · 18-01-2021 04:26PM

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

You get the HTB as well, 100%

That is just Crazy!!!!

Where did you hear that?

MacronvFrugals · 18-01-2021 04:28PM

Timing belt wrote: »

That is just Crazy!!!!

Where did you hear that?

I thought i read somewhere you can get Rebuilding Ireland 5/1 ratio mortgage, help to buy 30k and also avail of the shared equity scheme

Dwarf.Shortage · 18-01-2021 04:29PM

Timing belt wrote: »

That is just Crazy!!!!

Where did you hear that?

https://www.thejournal.ie/affordable-housing-4-5305251-Dec2020/

Half a dozen other articles say the same but I won't bore you with them all, largely rehashed versions of each other.

Dwarf.Shortage · 18-01-2021 04:31PM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

I thought i read somewhere you can get Rebuilding Ireland 5/1 ratio mortgage, help to buy 30k and also avail of the shared equity scheme

There are going to be some stately mansions built in rural Ireland over the next year or two

Timing belt · 18-01-2021 08:58PM

UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2020

https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealth-management/chief-investment-office/life-goals/real-estate/2020/global-real-estate-bubble-index.html

Villa05 · 19-01-2021 01:31AM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Councillors to Dig Deeper into Bills for Building Social Homes

https://www.dublininquirer.com/2020/12/16/councillors-to-dig-deeper-into-bills-for-building-social-homes

An interesting interview with Mel Reynolds on Pat Kenny especially with regard to build cost. Mel claims Passive is 50% more efficient than A rated houses and cost the same

Villa05 · 19-01-2021 01:35AM

How to solve the housing crisis

Echos alot of what is being said by some posters here

mcsean2163 · 19-01-2021 01:59AM

fliball123 wrote: »

2 years they can stay there paying nothing and they can wreck the place as well. If someone has just gone through that I can guarantee you they will think twice about putting it up for rent again. Its not just rentals if this happened to any other service that was trying to make money it would simply stop.

Unpopular opinion but have to agree. Was in a similar position renting out our house but also renting elsewhere. Tenant decided they were due a rent reduction. When they left, sold the property. Couldn't believe how they could just Rob us and we could do nothing. Wiser now.

So basically, smaller landlords that would've been nicer in general to tenants screwed over and funds do it instead without having to pay tax.

What a world

PropQueries · 19-01-2021 10:15AM

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Unpopular opinion but have to agree. Was in a similar position renting out our house but also renting elsewhere. Tenant decided they were due a rent reduction. When they left, sold the property. Couldn't believe how they could just Rob us and we could do nothing. Wiser now.

So basically, smaller landlords that would've been nicer in general to tenants screwed over and funds do it instead without having to pay tax.

What a world

I would believe the tracker mortgage scandal impacted BTL landlords by much much more than the very very small percentage of tenants who don't pay their rent.

And, as I've stated before, the current rental yields achieved by BTL landlords more than compensate for the risk of a tenant not paying their rent.

If BTL landlords are leaving the market (and the numbers aren't as significant as some make out), it's probably more to do with finally being able to sell to pay back their boom era BTL mortgages.

And from what I remember, most of the BTL mortgages issued during the boom years would never have been paid back from the rental income achievable at that time and they invested in their BTL properties for capital gain purposes rather than rental income.

fliball123 · 19-01-2021 11:25AM

PropQueries wrote: »

I would believe the tracker mortgage scandal impacted BTL landlords by much much more than the very very small percentage of tenants who don't pay their rent.

And, as I've stated before, the current rental yields achieved by BTL landlords more than compensate for the risk of a tenant not paying their rent.

If BTL landlords are leaving the market (and the numbers aren't as significant as some make out), it's probably more to do with finally being able to sell to pay back their boom era BTL mortgages.

And from what I remember, most of the BTL mortgages issued during the boom years would never have been paid back from the rental income achievable at that time and they invested in their BTL properties for capital gain purposes rather than rental income.

Have you any evidence of this or like all of your other statements the hamster in your head done a somersault and you put your post up?

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Comments

2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1