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Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

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Comments

  • #6872
    Gruffalux
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Gruffalux


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    Asymptomatic does make a difference re aerosols. The viral load in the individual will be far lower on average, meaning fewer droplets will be expelled in breathing.

    But it exists is what I mean. All the points have differences presumed.
    Edit - I did not express it clearly. Difference meant between existence of aerosols or droplets or not. Likewise mask, social distancing, time, etc will all make a difference. They are just not magic disappearers of aerosol suspended virus


  • #6873
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,599 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    I see we are upto 200 in icu
    196 in icu yesterday
    21 admissions and 12 discharges

    Presumably 5 deaths. RIP.

    Hospital numbers upto 2023 today.


  • #6874
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    Loafing Oaf wrote: »
    https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/health-family/irish-gps-fighting-third-wave-covid-on-the-front-line-of-the-world-s-worst-outbreak-1.4458430?mode=amp

    Should point out that this is from a GP in Belmullet, which seems to be global covid central ATM...
    hopgirl wrote: »
    My friend got covid but she doesn't know where she got it as she wasn't out mixing with people. The only place she went to was to the shop to get food. In saying that people that have covid is still going into shops ����
    mcburns07 wrote: »
    It's fairly unbelievable how someone could get it from presumably spending less than a couple of mins near with asymptomatic with both wearing masks and at least some level of social distancing going on.

    Either very very unlucky or more likely being dishonest about what they have done in the past few weeks.
    Deleted User wrote: »
    I live in Belmullet area and heard the story of the women in the porch. Must be some size of a house if you can sit in a porch 4-5 meters away from the person at the door.

    I think there has to be contact made or a few seconds in close proximity in these cases. People don't want to admit there mistakes. Can easily forget for a short time.

    I think some of the doctors in that Irish Times article should lay off the anecdotes.

    One doctor states:
    "One older patient had only been to Tesco, and wore her mask the whole time. But she still got sick, tested positive, and died recently."

    The doctor hasn't a clue as to whether this is true, that older patient may have had family contacts, been reluctant to admit to having more contacts than necessary etc. While it's perfectly possible the elderly person got it in Tesco, if that is a main route of transmission supermarket staff will be getting it in droves, given that they are there all day long every day.

    Then the other doctor citing "a typical example of a patient living alone and having her shopping delivered by a neighbour to inside her door, as an example of how infectious the virus can be". “The vulnerable person is sitting inside the porch four or five metres away. The person who’s delivering the shopping drops it inside the porch. They’re asymptomatic. And the vulnerable person catches it. I’ve heard loads of those kinds of stories.”

    More anecdotal stuff. Could happen (but unlikely imo), but smacks of creating narratives to support the message being given.


  • #6875
    lawred2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,753 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    podgeandrodge wrote: »
    I think some of the doctors in that Irish Times article should lay off the anecdotes.

    One doctor states:
    "One older patient had only been to Tesco, and wore her mask the whole time. But she still got sick, tested positive, and died recently."

    The doctor hasn't a clue as to whether this is true, that older patient may have had family contacts, been reluctant to admit to having more contacts than necessary etc. While it's perfectly possible the elderly person got it in Tesco, if that is a main route of transmission supermarket staff will be getting it in droves, given that they are there all day long every day.

    Then the other doctor citing "a typical example of a patient living alone and having her shopping delivered by a neighbour to inside her door, as an example of how infectious the virus can be". “The vulnerable person is sitting inside the porch four or five metres away. The person who’s delivering the shopping drops it inside the porch. They’re asymptomatic. And the vulnerable person catches it. I’ve heard loads of those kinds of stories.”

    More anecdotal stuff. Could happen, but smacks of creating narratives to support the message being given.

    that's particularly egregious

    the problem is twofold... "reporters" want something to report and many people (usually with large egos) when given the opportunity love to feel like they are part of the story...

    the wrong reporter meets the wrong doctor and you get this sort of reckless hysterical crap.


  • #6876
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    carq wrote: »
    As far as supermarkets I would like to see some kind of enforcement / covid officer who would go around the supermarket making sure masks are worn and worn correctly.

    I would shop there as first preference.

    I saw at the weekend in my local supermarket a man take off his mask to have a telephone conversation.
    During wave 2 I saw 2 people take of their masks to have a face to face chat.

    Society needs to be protected from the idiots.

    I'd like to see supermarket staff infection numbers. The main supermarkets gave them out a year or so ago (very few). With the presumed increased transmission capability of the variants, it would be interesting to see if this impacted much on staff that work there all day.


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  • #6877
    fits
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,056 ✭✭✭✭fits


    hopgirl wrote: »
    They have tested positive and know they shouldn't be in shops, these are the people I am on about not people that don't know they have it.

    I was in supermarket at weekend and there was a woman there with a child. Both wearing masks but woman was constantly coughing and no matter what I did I couldn’t get away from her. I just don’t trust folks to do the right thing anymore.


  • #6878
    CrabRevolution
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,959 ✭✭✭CrabRevolution


    podgeandrodge wrote: »
    I think some of the doctors in that Irish Times article should lay off the anecdotes.

    One doctor states:
    "One older patient had only been to Tesco, and wore her mask the whole time. But she still got sick, tested positive, and died recently."

    The doctor hasn't a clue as to whether this is true, that older patient may have had family contacts, been reluctant to admit to having more contacts than necessary etc. While it's perfectly possible the elderly person got it in Tesco, if that is a main route of transmission supermarket staff will be getting it in droves, given that they are there all day long every day.

    Then the other doctor citing "a typical example of a patient living alone and having her shopping delivered by a neighbour to inside her door, as an example of how infectious the virus can be". “The vulnerable person is sitting inside the porch four or five metres away. The person who’s delivering the shopping drops it inside the porch. They’re asymptomatic. And the vulnerable person catches it. I’ve heard loads of those kinds of stories.”

    More anecdotal stuff. Could happen (but unlikely imo), but smacks of creating narratives to support the message being given.

    I posted similar yesterday how it's a bit bizarre that we treat people's word on how they caught the disease as gospel, especially when people have a major self interest in lying about it.


  • #6879
    duffman13
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,247 ✭✭✭duffman13


    CrabRevolution wrote: »
    I posted similar yesterday how it's a bit bizarre that we treat people's word on how they caught the disease as gospel, especially when people have a major self interest in lying about it.

    Particularly when interviewed :D Not gonna say, ah yeah was with 20 people on the road on new year's eve having the chats.


  • #6880
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    One thing I heard there from the doctor on Claire Byrne caused me some concern, that people with Long Covid may be carriers for as long as they are symptomatic. This is quite an alarming prospect if it is still totally unknown as to whether they could carry the virus. Surely tests should be performed on these symptomatic people in an effort to determine their potential infectiousness. It is something that needs to be seriously addressed, because if a cohort of people are actively and innocently spreading the virus about like Typhoid Mary, it is a public health issue. Not that I could personally imagine what could be practically done about people with such carrier status.


  • #6881
    majcos
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 596 ✭✭✭majcos


    Loafing Oaf wrote: »
    Those articles spooked me too, supermarket is pretty much the only place I go now. The worst was the woman who contracted the virus from the guy dropping off shopping inside her porch. If that's all it takes we're all doomed...
    So many stories like this from people who turn out to have far more contacts that they discounted. Don’t think about the contact a week earlier not just in the last 48 hours before symptoms started. Don’t count family members as contacts and don’t count the chains of contacts each of those contacts have.

    People insist that I have seen absolutely nobody. Then a few minutes later, my daughter is the only person who I have seen. But that was only in the garden and she didn’t come in to the house except for when she came in to change the sheets but that was only for a few minutes. Well maybe she was in the house for an hour tops. But she never took her mask off even once and we weren’t even in the same room except for when she had a quick cup of tea before she left but she didn’t eat anything at all apart from a quick scone. But my daughter has seen nobody apart from her partner of course, but he has been really careful and he has been nowhere. Except he works in a meat factory and he has dropped in to his mother but his mother has seen no-one since last March apart from a rotating crew of home helps who come in seven days a week for an hour. But the only person I could have possibly caught in from is the delivery man.

    Insist I have seen no-one. Haven’t been out of the house. And my husband doesn’t go anywhere either. He did call in to his parents but his parents haven’t seen anyone. Apart from the other two sons who both have wives who have seen absolutely no-one apart from their parents but their parents haven’t seen anyone apart form their other siblings. But no-one has been to the house apart from my niece but she has been really good and hasn’t been socialising at all. Yes, she does still work for the department of agriculture in an open plan office with fifteen other people but no-one in her office has been sick. And yes we got the heating fixed. It took the plumber the whole day. He had to replace the radiator in my bedroom but he was really careful and never took his mask off at all. Except for when he got really warm carrying in and out the supplies and while I gave him a cup of tea. But apart from that he had his mask on the entire time.

    Insist I have seen no one. Work alone and only my wife in the house. So how could we have caught it? Only place I have been is the supermarket. We have stuck to all the guidelines and never broke the restrictions even once. Haven’t been anywhere in months. Spent Christmas with just the two of us. We didn’t do anything. The only treat we gave ourselves was to go out for dinner the week before Christmas but we were really careful and it was just the two of us and we left after 90 minutes so we did everything right. And that was over a week ago anyway. Must have caught it in the supermarket.

    Insists that I haven’t seen anyone. Live alone, working from home. Photo on public Facebook account of me at lock-in on Stephen’s night. Took it down after I tested positive. Embarrassed/afraid to admit where I have been.

    A supermarket is a possibility as a source of infection especially as some have gotten more lax. Hand hygiene skipped, unclean trolley handles, dirty mask around the chin, stopping for a chat, checkout person with no mask behind a Perspex screen they need to lean around etc. but going to supermarket is a low risk and those who claim to have seen no-one at all are usually discounting other encounters and exposures.


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  • #6882
    Gruffalux
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Gruffalux


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    One thing I heard there from the doctor on Claire Byrne caused me some concern, that people with Long Covid may be carriers for as long as they are symptomatic. This is quite an alarming prospect if it is still totally unknown as to whether they could carry the virus. Surely tests should be performed on these symptomatic people in an effort to determine their potential infectiousness. It is something that needs to be seriously addressed, because if a cohort of people are actively and innocently spreading the virus about like Typhoid Mary, it is a public health issue. Not that I could personally imagine what could be practically done about people with such carrier status.

    Could be a sort of retrovirus type thingy imo, something that was mentioned early on but squished out of public awateness thereafter - housewife epidemiologist.
    Is being looked at - real scientists

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/12/coronavirus-may-sometimes-slip-its-genetic-material-human-chromosomes-what-does-mean

    A lot of the very early info re Covid has proven to be quite interesting.


  • #6883
    MerlinSouthDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,627 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    Friday's GP referral data is out - flat compared to Thursday in terms of average number of referrals per GP. The raw number of referrals was down about 20%, but this is because fewer GPs filled in the survey on Friday.

    https://tomorrowscare.ie/covid/2021-01-18_COVID_GP_Survey_Results.pdf


  • #6884
    CrabRevolution
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,959 ✭✭✭CrabRevolution


    MerlinSouthDub wrote: »
    Friday's GP referral data is out - flat compared to Thursday in terms of average number of referrals per GP. The raw number of referrals was down about 20%, but this is because fewer GPs filled in the survey on Friday.

    https://tomorrowscare.ie/covid/2021-01-18_COVID_GP_Survey_Results.pdf

    I take it Friday's referrals would be yesterday's and today's confirmed cases?


  • #6885
    Turtwig
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,578 ✭✭✭✭Turtwig


    GPs using anecdotes as examples for how covid spreads are being reckless. The patients' recall of events may not be reliable. Not saying they lied. They may simply have misattributed the source of infection and completely omitted an unsafe action they frequently undertook.

    They can also get very very unlucky. Journalists should be asking more of the GPs. Evidence based medicine is not based on anecdotes. There's plenty of studies on covid modes of transmission - and there will be plenty more of these. Please refer to these. Not Johnny's doc say he got it from a delivery package. He may have but how likely is Johnny to be representative of all infections?


  • #6886
    MerlinSouthDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,627 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    CrabRevolution wrote: »
    I take it Friday's referrals would be yesterday's and today's confirmed cases?

    Yeah, I would guess so. Friday's referrals would probably get tested on Friday or Saturday, and the swab processed in the lab on Saturday or Sunday,

    Note this is a voluntary survey which about 200 GPs typically participate in, but this varies from day to day. It's useful in terms of seeing trends over time, but one day of data doesn't tell you much.


  • #6887
    Funsterdelux
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭Funsterdelux


    Turtwig wrote: »
    GPs using anecdotes as examples for how covid spreads are being reckless. The patients' recall of events may not be reliable. Not saying they lied. They may simply have misattributed the source of infection and completely omitted an unsafe action they frequently undertook.

    They can also get very very unlucky. Journalists should be asking more of the GPs. Evidence based medicine is not based on anecdotes. There's plenty of studies on covid modes of transmission - and there will be plenty more of these. Please refer to these. Not Johnny's doc say he got it from a delivery package. He may have but how likely is Johnny to be representative of all infections?

    I originally linked the article not because of the anedotes, it was to do with the varying symptoms or lack of classic covid symptoms. Which to me was the more important message people might take from the piece. Not where Mary thinks she picked it up or lied about picking it up.

    A lot of hysteria here about anecdotes.


  • #6888
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    It's really as simple as this: person going around with virus in their nasopharyngeal area/lungs exhales normally and another person stands in that airspace shortly after and breaths same virus laden air in and gets infected.

    Masks help, of course, but air escapes around masks including the air that steams up my glasses. And the virus doesn't carry around a stopwatch to determine the amount of time anybody has to be around to infect them. Can happen in seconds if unlucky.


  • #6889
    majcos
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 596 ✭✭✭majcos


    Deleted User wrote: »
    One thing I heard there from the doctor on Claire Byrne caused me some concern, that people with Long Covid may be carriers for as long as they are symptomatic. This is quite an alarming prospect if it is still totally unknown as to whether they could carry the virus. Surely tests should be performed on these symptomatic people in an effort to determine their potential infectiousness. It is something that needs to be seriously addressed, because if a cohort of people are actively and innocently spreading the virus about like Typhoid Mary, it is a public health issue. Not that I could personally imagine what could be practically done about people with such carrier status.
    Scientists have tried to culture virus in patients who have had Covid and were seriously ill including patients who are immunocompromised and have not been able to find replication-competent (infectious) virus in 88% after 10 days and in 95% of those after 15 days. That group of patients are likely to be in hospital anyway for a period longer than this. For those with mild to moderate symptoms replication competent virus has not been recovered after 10 days.

    There have also been contact tracing studies which have shown that hospital and household contacts did not develop infections if exposure happened after day 6 of illness.

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2008457

    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32442256/

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.08.20125310v1

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2196-x

    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2765641


  • #6890
    timsey tiger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,768 ✭✭✭timsey tiger


    The whole victim blaming is going full steam ahead today I see.


  • #6891
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    Funsterdelux wrote: »
    I originally linked the article not because of the anedotes, it was to do with the varying symptoms or lack of classic covid symptoms. Which to me was the more important message people might take from the piece. Not where Mary thinks she picked it up or lied about picking it up.

    A lot of hysteria here about anecdotes.

    It's hardly hysterical to say that journalists should at least hold doctors to some form of account, when putting about dubious anecdotal stories.


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  • #6892
    Funsterdelux
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭Funsterdelux


    podgeandrodge wrote: »
    It's hardly hysterical to say that journalists should at least hold doctors to some form of account, when putting about dubious anecdotal stories.

    Of course.

    I was referring the the original response ;)


  • #6893
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Turtwig wrote: »
    GPs using anecdotes as examples for how covid spreads are being reckless. The patients' recall of events may not be reliable. Not saying they lied. They may simply have misattributed the source of infection and completely omitted an unsafe action they frequently undertook.
    People are also really, really awful at assessing risk.

    What may be a considerably higher risk activity, people assume is lower risk. So going to the supermarket for half an hour is, in their mind, a much higher risk activity than having their neighbour over for a chat for two hours.

    When the opposite is the case. "I was perfectly safe" means, "I cannot think of any high-risk activity I did that was riskier than going to the shops".

    People almost always associate strangers with higher risk. Delivery man with no mask = higher risk. Supermarket = higher risk. Jogger passing by on the road = higher risk. Family member over for dinner = lower risk.


  • #6894
    kippy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,246 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    Turtwig wrote: »
    GPs using anecdotes as examples for how covid spreads are being reckless. The patients' recall of events may not be reliable. Not saying they lied. They may simply have misattributed the source of infection and completely omitted an unsafe action they frequently undertook.

    They can also get very very unlucky. Journalists should be asking more of the GPs. Evidence based medicine is not based on anecdotes. There's plenty of studies on covid modes of transmission - and there will be plenty more of these. Please refer to these. Not Johnny's doc say he got it from a delivery package. He may have but how likely is Johnny to be representative of all infections?

    Ultimately theres not enough eveidence out there and it's not that easy to pin down where the source of the disease was. In the interests of protecting everyone surely a "better safe than sorry" approach is the way to go, even when it comes to informing the public.
    The reality is, the more cases that are known to be out there, the more "unknown" cases are out there too. There more cases are out there the more likely you are to catch it if you leave your house and then do any number of things that would have higher or lower risk profiles.
    It's different when the cases are low, but right now they are extremely high and the reality is plenty people have this disease that cannot track back to where they got it.


  • #6895
    kippy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,246 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    timsey tiger wrote: »
    The whole victim blaming is going full steam ahead today I see.

    There has been a lot of that going on in society in general around this.
    It's unfortunate.


  • #6896
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Vaccination volumes in the UK are potentially moving toward 4-5 million a week in Feb, and a move back to the tier system in March. My dad, who’s 70, got his letter today for a jab next week. Whatever has gone wrong in the UK in the last 12 months, this is incredible. Luckily I’m still registered with a GP in London.

    How the hell has the EU been so slow to the party with this?????


  • #6897
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,175 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »
    I see we are upto 200 in icu
    196 in icu yesterday
    21 admissions and 12 discharges

    Presumably 5 deaths. RIP.

    Hospital numbers upto 2023 today.

    Fairly grim milestone of 2,000 with ICU in hospitals and 200 in ICU. Hopefully these numbers plateau quickly. If cases stay in 3,000/high 2,000s you'd be worried about the cumulative affect with lag of people getting sick and lag in discharges of current hospitalisations meaning hospitalisations don't decrease quickly enough.

    Think someone mentioned there could be a reverse exponential affect after a while on here but couldn't find post. Would be interested to know if cases will decrease a bit quicker in that case over next few weeks


  • #6898
    alentejo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 962 ✭✭✭alentejo


    Alot being claimed about Supermarkets on this forum

    Just two thoughts on this

    Have many Supermarket staff got Covid recently? I am sure many staff have had it recently as its so prevalent in the community, however is it greater than expected norms? would be interested to know if this is known?

    During the 1st wave back in April & May, there were no or very few masks being worn by customers and staff? This time around, 99% of people wear masks. In theory, supermarkets should be safer that the 1st wave!

    I suspect that supermarket infections do happen, however I suspect you would be unlucky to get it in a supermarket. No matter how many infections there are, supermarkets will not close (however dont give T H ideas though)


  • #6899
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,175 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Vaccination volumes in the UK are potentially moving toward 4-5 million a week in Feb, and a move back to the tier system in March. My dad, who’s 70, got his letter today for a jab next week. Whatever has gone wrong in the UK in the last 12 months, this is incredible. Luckily I’m still registered with a GP in London.

    How the hell has the EU been so slow to the party with this?????

    UK approved vaccines ahead of EU so have a few week headstart but think the supply could have been better here.


  • #6900
    shamco
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 273 ✭✭shamco


    Read somewhere this morning that an estimated 13% of the population may have immunity either having got the disease or through vaccination in Ireland. Can we conclude from that that r rate is reduced by .13 from when the virus started.


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  • #6901
    kippy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,246 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    shamco wrote: »
    Read somewhere this morning that an estimated 13% of the population may have immunity either having got the disease or through vaccination in Ireland. Can we conclude from that that r rate is reduced by .13 from when the virus started.

    No.
    The R number and calculation of it is not exact generally, and new variants, their transmissability etc make this even harder to work out.


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