2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

Marius34 · 18-01-2021 11:23AM

Timing belt wrote: »

Which landlord has 50% occupancy?

maybe some small landlord with 2 properties, I would not think there are any large landlords with 50% occupancy. If that would happen, I'm confident it would be all around this thread.

Timing belt · 18-01-2021 11:23AM

Browney7 wrote: »

From reading the Kennedy Wilson Q3 report it seems they only have a 50% ownership of most of their Dublin residential holdings. It's a summary report so I know no more. 2020 year end reports will be interesting for IRES - they had a low vacancy in Q2 but 6 months is a long time in this pandemic so will be interesting to see any trends

Their vacancy level in Ireland in Q3 is 93% of 2088 units which means that they have 145 vacant properties in all of their 9 properties in Ireland (in the middle of a pandemic). If we use the information from the business post we Know 100 of these are for 1 property. That means they have 45 vacant properties in total for the other 8 properties and 100 majorly overpriced units in one property.

See page 21
http://ir.kennedywilson.com/~/media/Files/K/Kennedy-Wilson-IR-V2/documents/3q-2020-supplemental-financial-information.pdf

MacronvFrugals · 18-01-2021 12:00PM

Poll: Should there be a levy on housing units that lie vacant for over six months?

https://www.thejournal.ie/vacant-housing-unit-tax-5328133-Jan2021/

Results so far suggest most people in favor of this particularly in Dublin

fliball123 · 18-01-2021 12:04PM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Poll: Should there be a levy on housing units that lie vacant for over six months?

https://www.thejournal.ie/vacant-housing-unit-tax-5328133-Jan2021/

Results so far suggest most people in favor of this particularly in Dublin

There should be zero levies until the government sort out the issues of tenants who can phuck around landlords with payment (or lack of). This is IMO the main reason why a lot of units are not rented out as people see tenants being afforded all of the protection of the state and are allowed stay in someone elses property rent free for 2 years, wreck the place and then sail off into the sunset. Until this disparity is cleared up there should be no levy.

PropQueries · 18-01-2021 12:10PM

fliball123 wrote: »

There should be zero levies until the government sort out the issues of tenants who can phuck around landlords with payment (or lack of). This is IMO the main reason why a lot of units are not rented out as people see tenants being afforded all of the protection of the state and are allowed stay in someone elses property rent free for 2 years, wreck the place and then sail off into the sunset. Until this disparity is cleared up there should be no levy.

By that logic nobody should set up a business in the off-chance someone doesn’t pay them for goods/services supplied.

The current rental yields more than compensate for the very very very slim chance a tenant doesn’t pay and stays in the property for two years rent free.

MacronvFrugals · 18-01-2021 12:10PM

fliball123 wrote: »

There should be zero levies until the government sort out the issues of tenants who can phuck around landlords with payment (or lack of). This is IMO the main reason why a lot of units are not rented out as people see tenants being afforded all of the protection of the state and are allowed stay in someone elses property rent free for 2 years, wreck the place and then sail off into the sunset. Until this disparity is cleared up there should be no levy.

I think the market is ok for landlords at the minute, just barely though...

'Outrageous' Daft.ie 'home' removed as €1,200 p/m Dublin bed in shed causes fury online

https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-news/property-dublin-daft-renting-tallaght-19461197

fliball123 · 18-01-2021 12:15PM

PropQueries wrote: »

By that logic nobody should set up a business in the off-chance someone doesn’t pay them for goods/services supplied.

The current rental yields more than compensate for the very very very slim chance a tenant doesn’t pay and stays in the property for two years rent free.

2 years they can stay there paying nothing and they can wreck the place as well. If someone has just gone through that I can guarantee you they will think twice about putting it up for rent again. Its not just rentals if this happened to any other service that was trying to make money it would simply stop.

Marius34 · 18-01-2021 12:16PM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Poll: Should there be a levy on housing units that lie vacant for over six months?

https://www.thejournal.ie/vacant-housing-unit-tax-5328133-Jan2021/

Results so far suggest most people in favor of this particularly in Dublin

Over six month vacancy is typically considered as long term vacancy. Dublin has very low number of Long term vacancy, thus the impact would be very minimal.

fliball123 · 18-01-2021 12:17PM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

I think the market is ok for landlords at the minute, just barely though...

'Outrageous' Daft.ie 'home' removed as €1,200 p/m Dublin bed in shed causes fury online

https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-news/property-dublin-daft-renting-tallaght-19461197

I am not talking about the amount I am talking about the security of getting paid. You only have to look at the amount of small landlords who have legged it from the market after the all of the new legislation protecting tenants came in as yes it protected tenants but at the same time it has left landlords open to all kinds of abuse from tenants.

JimmyVik · 18-01-2021 12:20PM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Poll: Should there be a levy on housing units that lie vacant for over six months?

https://www.thejournal.ie/vacant-housing-unit-tax-5328133-Jan2021/

Results so far suggest most people in favor of this particularly in Dublin

What do they expect to happen to property.
Someone might have a property to rent for a few months or a year.
If you rent it out nowadays you might never see it again.
God help you if you get a delinquent tenant. You wont see it again and you wont get any rent either.
Too risky and stacks of regulation against the owner. Better just to leave it there.

MacronvFrugals · 18-01-2021 12:22PM

fliball123 wrote: »

I am not talking about the amount I am talking about the security of getting paid. You only have to look at the amount of small landlords who have legged it from the market after the all of the new legislation protecting tenants came in as yes it protected tenants but at the same time it has left landlords open to all kinds of abuse from tenants.

When you've landlords turning what is essentially factory containers into living units and the relevant authorities doing nothing about it, it would be fair to say this goes both ways

https://www.dublininquirer.com/2020/08/26/in-glasnevin-a-landlord-attempts-to-illegally-evict-two-residents

JimmyVik · 18-01-2021 12:28PM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

When you've landlords turning what is essentially factory containers into living units and the relevant authorities doing nothing about it, it would be fair to say this goes both ways

https://www.dublininquirer.com/2020/08/26/in-glasnevin-a-landlord-attempts-to-illegally-evict-two-residents

What about someone trying to rent out their house or apartment? Not people renting out factory containers or sheds? Do you think they could do with some security on a very expensive asset?

combat14 · 18-01-2021 12:31PM

great to see 6% house price increases predicted in the current environment

of course the banks predicted 10% - 15% decreases last year and they were wrong...

so the truth is who actually knows could go anyway

fliball123 · 18-01-2021 12:36PM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

When you've landlords turning what is essentially factory containers into living units and the relevant authorities doing nothing about it, it would be fair to say this goes both ways

https://www.dublininquirer.com/2020/08/26/in-glasnevin-a-landlord-attempts-to-illegally-evict-two-residents

And the tenant has the choice of not living in such conditions. There is not one landlord out there that puts a gun to a tenants head and says rent my place or else. Also there is a standard a code that rental properties need to adhere to.

Ozark707 · 18-01-2021 12:57PM

Marius34 wrote: »

Over six month vacancy is typically considered as long term vacancy. Dublin has very low number of Long term vacancy, thus the impact would be very minimal.

If that is the case then there should be no real impediment to implementing a vacancy tax. Most LL’s won’t have such a long void so it won’t affect them and if there are only a small number of REITs in this boat then it should not cause any major rumblings.

If there are major rumblings then it might indicate there are quite a few in this boat.

Marius34 · 18-01-2021 01:05PM

Ozark707 wrote: »

If that is the case then there should be no real impediment to implementing a vacancy tax. Most LL’s won’t have such a long void so it won’t affect them and if there are only a small number of REITs in this boat then it should not cause any major rumblings.

If there are major rumblings then it might indicate there are quite a few in this boat.

I don't think it would be a problem for large Landlords, as only small portion of their properties stay vacant over 6 month, but I'm afraid it would be an issue for non LL home owners, especially in country side.

Ozark707 · 18-01-2021 01:16PM

Marius34 wrote: »

I don't think it would be a problem for large Landlords, as only small portion of their properties stay vacant over 6 month, but I'm afraid it would be an issue for non LL home owners, especially in country side.

As they have established RPZ’s already then that would be very easy to implement so.

Marius34 · 18-01-2021 01:35PM

Ozark707 wrote: »

As they have established RPZ’s already then that would be very easy to implement so.

Maybe, if it's not to much bureaucracy to identify 6 months vacancy for exact properties.
The thing, that I don't think that there would be any visual impact on Irish Property Market, as RPZ zones has lowest Long Term vacancy rates.

hometruths · 18-01-2021 01:41PM

Marius34 wrote: »

Maybe, if it's not to much bureaucracy to identify 6 months vacancy for exact properties.
The thing, that I don't think that there would be any visual impact on Irish Property Market, as RPZ zones has lowest Long Term vacancy rates.

Really? Where are you getting that info from?

Xoo2 · 18-01-2021 01:53PM

There seems to be a serious supply issue where we're looking to buy Castleknock, Coolmine, even Blanchardstown- Dublin 15 .etc. Looking for a 4-bed semi-D and I don't know if it's just the time of year but there might be 1 house a week coming on the market. Anything under 550k seems to go sale agreed/sold within a month or so. Even a 3 bed with attic suitable for conversion, or already converted would be great. Just based on my own experience house hunting it wouldn't surprise me at all if prices rise this year.

Marius34 · 18-01-2021 01:56PM

schmittel wrote: »

Really? Where are you getting that info from?

The main source for Long term vacancy in Ireland is GeoDirectory. It's far from perfect, but it's the best we have so far.

Timing belt · 18-01-2021 01:57PM

Ozark707 wrote: »

As they have established RPZ’s already then that would be very easy to implement so.

If they were to implement it then they need to do it right and not impact people unintentionally where there is a good reason for the property being vacant. (e.g. Owner deceased, in a nursing home, hospital, household being renovated)

In France vacancy rates increased after they implemented a vacancy tax because the LL let the property out for a short term let during the 6 months.

Likewise if it is only restricted to rental property it will not capture any properties where developers/owners have chose to leave their property vacant in the hope of capital appreciation because they do not want the headache of Renting it out.

How will it deal with lease up properties as developers normally drip feed these to the market over a period of 12-15 Months. If they were to be taxed they may wait until the whole development was complete before renting out resulting in a delay in units hitting the market.

In the 2016 census houses/apartments to rent only accounted for 12.% of vacant properties in Dublin according to the CSO data

It needs to be thought through fully, implemented and followed up on unlike most of the housing initiatives by the government. There was lots of noise about the vacant housing unit being set up in the department of housing 4/5 years ago and yet we have heard or have seen very little of them.

According to the CSO 2016 census rental properties only accounted for 12% of the vacant properties in Dublin.

Ozark707 · 18-01-2021 02:26PM

Timing belt wrote: »

It needs to be thought through fully, implemented and followed up on unlike most of the housing initiatives by the government. There was lots of noise about the vacant housing unit being set up in the department of housing 4/5 years ago and yet we have heard or have seen very little of them.

Fully agree it needs to be fully thought out. It does not look like it is rocket science to figure out though either. We were told it was going to be very hard to go after Airbnb's as well. I suspect if there was a gentle nudge you could flush out many of the vacant in the REITs pretty quickly.

PropQueries · 18-01-2021 02:34PM

Ozark707 wrote: »

Fully agree it needs to be fully thought out. It does not look like it is rocket science to figure out though either. We were told it was going to be very hard to go after Airbnb's as well. I suspect if there was a gentle nudge you could flush out many of the vacant in the REITs pretty quickly.

I’m not sure much thinking has to go into such a proposal. We can take some off-the-shelf solutions that are implemented in many other countries.

Many other countries have a vacant property tax with the danish actually criminalising property owners who don’t tell their councils about their property being vacant to Washington D.C. slapping a 10% tax on derelict property.

If vacant property isn’t such a big problem in Ireland, people shouldn’t be too worried as it wouldn’t apply to most..

Ozark707 · 18-01-2021 02:41PM

PropQueries wrote: »

I’m not sure much thinking has to go into such a proposal. We can take some off-the-shelf solutions that are implemented in many other countries.

Many other countries have a vacant property tax with the danish actually criminalising property owners who don’t tell their councils about their property being vacant to Washington D.C. slapping a 10% tax on derelict property.

If vacant property isn’t such a big problem in Ireland, people shouldn’t be too worried as it wouldn’t apply to most..

Yes they could just start by looking at daft and targeting the multi unit places.

Timing belt · 18-01-2021 02:41PM

PropQueries wrote: »

I’m not sure much thinking has to go into such a proposal. We can take some off-the-shelf solutions that are implemented in many other countries.

Many other countries have a vacant property tax with the danish actually criminalising property owners who don’t tell their councils about their property being vacant to Washington D.C. slapping a 10% tax on derelict property.

If vacant property isn’t such a big problem in Ireland, people shouldn’t be too worried as it wouldn’t apply to most..

Prop Are you going to reply about my other post? I would like to know who the poster is and that you were not misrepresenting what I said. Thanks

Knex* · 18-01-2021 02:41PM

combat14 wrote: »

great to see 6% house price increases predicted in the current environment

of course the banks predicted 10% - 15% decreases last year and they were wrong...

so the truth is who actually knows could go anyway

Hard not to see increases in the short term, anyway. Until a vaccine is rolled out and people are comfortable putting their homes online again and allowing viewings, we're only going to see a bottleneck in terms of demand and being able to purchase. Supply is so bad that anything remotely turn key in good areas are nearly guaranteed to result in a bidding war and go above asking at the minute.

Overall supply is down 50% or more from your average month. I don't think demand has dropped by quite that amount, and we were already in a shortage prior to covid. Although arguably prices had stagnated.

If we see price drops, I don't know if that can happen until towards the end of the year when supply goes back to normal volumes.

PropQueries · 18-01-2021 02:46PM

Timing belt wrote: »

Prop Are you going to reply about my other post? I would like to know who the poster is and that you were not misrepresenting what I said. Thanks

It was obviously you who said 0% interest rates would be enough to impact the property market. And I fully agree that my 1% was not near low enough how little interest rates need to rise to severely impact the markets. It was a good point you made IMO

PropQueries · 18-01-2021 02:49PM

Knex* wrote: »

Hard not to see increases in the short term, anyway. Until a vaccine is rolled out and people are comfortable putting their homes online again and allowing viewings, we're only going to see a bottleneck in terms of demand and being able to purchase. Supply is so bad that anything remotely turn key in good areas are nearly guaranteed to result in a bidding war and go above asking at the minute.

Overall supply is down 50% or more from your average month. I don't think demand has dropped by quite that amount, and we were already in a shortage prior to covid. Although arguably prices had stagnated.

If we see price drops, I don't know if that can happen until towards the end of the year when supply goes back to normal volumes.

And by that stage we will have another c. 20,000 new built a-rated units looking for occupants. The way the media appear to be spinning it is that construction just stopped last March and won't start up again until December 2021.

Timing belt · 18-01-2021 02:54PM

Ozark707 wrote: »

Yes they could just start by looking at daft and targeting the multi unit places.

Tax needs to be implemented in a consistent and fair manner... I think 99% of the population would not have a problem with introducing a tax but all the points I mentioned above and more need to be considered and thought through.

The following shows the difference between rental vacancy rates in Dublin and USA. To assume that it is 100% the same issue may be a mistake.

Dublin City Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown Fingal South Dub
Rental vacancy rate 1.21% 0.41% 0.41% 0.27%

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1