Is anyone else starting to become a bit excited?

jimmii · 17-01-2021 08:53PM

Link on fire this evening!

cnocbui · 18-01-2021 01:40AM

Dohnjoe wrote: »

At the risk of repeating this, cash isn't a speculative investment instrument like shares or BTC. It's designed to be as relatively stable as possible to act as a good medium of exchange. In the current economic climate it deliberately depreciates for a reason.

It can produce a return under certain economic circumstances (e.g. a falling ruble in Russia a couple of years back generated capital flight and national banks jacked up savings rates to 17%) - but that's not a typical economic situation.

To simplify, if saving rates on cash were higher than the rate of inflation, then the propensity to save would increase, and spending would decrease - which would cause issues within the economy. People spend less, economy starts to slide, unemployment increases, recession starts to kick in, etc.

This is why we take our medium of exchange and convert it into investment assets that do generate a return (shares, bonds, land, gold, crypto, etc)

And what else do you think I meant? I have been investing for more than 3 decades, and can remember getting 17.5% on some debentures. Thanks for the lesson, but I'm not exactly new to this. And for most of my life, it was possible to get good rates of interest on cash in normal transaction accounts. The last decade of low interest rates is not the norm for me, it's an aberration.

Mellor · 18-01-2021 02:14AM

cnocbui wrote: »

The last decade of low interest rates is not the norm for me, it's an aberration.

I'll take low interest on cash savings with corresponding low interests on mortgage and the like. 10% on savings with a 15% mortgage doesn't appeal at all.

Obviously, an older investor, with no mortgage or debts, would have a different preference.

makeorbrake · 18-01-2021 02:45AM

Mellor wrote: »

I'll take low interest on cash savings with corresponding low interests on mortgage and the like. 10% on savings with a 15% mortgage doesn't appeal at all.

I live 'far away'....and I have some local monopoly money in a managed fund here. It's bringing in 7% but its completely pointless if currency devaluation/inflation in real terms is running higher than that.

Ironically, I never got into bitcoin for big phat short term gains. I bought into the self sovereign, unconfiscatable money aspect of it that can't be stealth taxed through inflation. I'd sooner park most of my wealth up in it on the basis that it retains its value - as opposed to the theft that goes on with ordinary people's hard earned $ being vapourised either through complete currency/government mismanagement or controlled management, washing away .gov mistakes with x% inflation. It seems I can't do that until btc matures but hey ho, I'll take the major gains (by entering and exiting the market) in the meantime if it has to work that way.

As regards the complete Keynesian bóllocks thats rolled out suggesting that the world will fall apart if we don't have inflation, I'm not buying that crap! If there is ongoing innovation, people will always buy into that. However, it will be tangible innovation - not people being rampant consumers of complete crap that's manufactured in China that they don't actually need.

Governments need to start respecting people who are responsible and save by not stealing their wealth from them. The other irony is that the uninformed go on about the carbon footprint of bitcoin when its this bs economic system that encourages people to buy random crap that is causing the most environmental damage.

Mellor · 18-01-2021 03:02AM

makeorbrake wrote: »

I live 'far away'....and I have some local monopoly money in a managed fund here. It's bringing in 7% but its completely pointless if currency devaluation/inflation in real terms is running higher than that.

But inflation isn't higher than that.

Inflation, averaged over the last four years is less than 0.5%
So really not sure why you felt the need to explain something as basic as inflation there. That also applies to crypto or any investment too btw.

What's the relevance to my post that you quoted?

makeorbrake · 18-01-2021 03:08AM

Mellor wrote: »

But inflation isn't higher than that. ......
What's the relevance to my post that you quoted?

I live in the developing world where currency devaluation or inflation runs higher. The point I'm making is that I'm not impressed by high savings rates in any country as most likely you're still getting gamed by the system locally (you're still losing).

Over and above that, the figure you quote - its based on CPI. That's not a real representation of inflation. It's a two track thing these days. We have deflationary pressures brought about by technological innovation. However, there are other things that are very much inflationary - the things that are left outside of that CPI calculation!

maninasia · 18-01-2021 03:56AM

makeorbrake wrote: »

I live in the developing world where currency devaluation or inflation runs higher. The point I'm making is that I'm not impressed by high savings rates in any country as most likely you're still getting gamed by the system locally (you're still losing).

Over and above that, the figure you quote - its based on CPI. That's not a real representation of inflation. It's a two track thing these days. We have deflationary pressures brought about by technological innovation. However, there are other things that are very much inflationary - the things that are left outside of that CPI calculation!

I recall house prices are often left out of CPI calculations, which is crazy.

Do you live in a country with no tax on crypto ? It's a good feeling. ðŸ˜

Mellor · 18-01-2021 03:59AM

makeorbrake wrote: »

I live in the developing world where currency devaluation or inflation runs higher. The point I'm making is that I'm not impressed by high savings rates in any country as most likely you're still getting gamed by the system locally (you're still losing).

Interest rates are unrelated to inflation.
In fact they tend to apply inversely. Periods of high interest rates corresponds to low inflation. So your “most likely” is not accurate (for any normal, established economy)

Regardless, what you describe isn’t a cash only issue. Any investment has to “beat” inflation to be a gain in real terms.
Not storing wealth in a depreciating currency is just common sense. Just like not storing it in 2006 Nissan Micras

Mellor · 18-01-2021 04:40AM

maninasia wrote: »

I recall house prices are often left out of CPI calculations, which is crazy.

CPI inflation to supposed to estimate "cost of living". Houses aren't an consumable expense every year. So changes in house prices year to year don't affect the cost of living some somebody in the same situation.

Obviously house prices are a huge expense for people, and are are tracked and assessed in other ways.

makeorbrake · 18-01-2021 05:51AM

Mellor wrote: »

Obviously house prices are a huge expense for people, and are are tracked and assessed in other ways.

Sorry dude but you leave it out of CPI then it's totally misleading. Likewise food and energy. You think that your average person understands these nuances? The claim is made that these things were taken out to make it more accurate. The counter-claim is that they were taken out to drive down the inflation figure.

makeorbrake · 18-01-2021 05:53AM

maninasia wrote: »

Do you live in a country with no tax on crypto ? It's a good feeling. ðŸ˜

It has its benefits

makeorbrake · 18-01-2021 05:58AM

Mellor wrote: »

Interest rates are unrelated to inflation.
...Not storing wealth in a depreciating currency is just common sense. Just like not storing it in 2006 Nissan Micras

That's why I described both scenarios together (inflation and currency devaluation). In the case of the latter, it's very easy to say that (don't store wealth in depreciating currency). Try living in a Country and dealing with their sovereign currency when capital controls are implemented such that you can't hold any other currency.

The over-arching point I'm making is that the current norm is inequitable and a reset is required in how we do things.

Mellor · 18-01-2021 07:40AM

makeorbrake wrote: »

Sorry dude but you leave it out of CPI then it's totally misleading. Likewise food and energy. You think that your average person understands these nuances? The claim is made that these things were taken out to make it more accurate. The counter-claim is that they were taken out to drive down the inflation figure.

Increases to the price of milk are due to inflation. House price increases are mainly not due to inflation.
Inflation is a factor obviously, but a 5% annual gain is mostly not inflation.

And you are comparing with previous years. It the measurement is the same, the comparison works.

makeorbrake wrote: »

That's why I described both scenarios together (inflation and currency devaluation).

Neither of those are interest. Which is what was being discussed.
You've just gone on a weird segway about inflation.

Try living in a Country and dealing with their sovereign currency when capital controls are implemented such that you can't hold any other currency.

The over-arching point I'm making is that the current norm is inequitable and a reset is required in how we do things.

What country do you live in that you can't hold any other currency?

If that's the case, it's unfortunate, but it's by no means the norm, so a bit silly to paint it as such.

Anyway, back to crypto
BTC trending down. Not so much a sharp dip, so I think less "buy the dippers" involved.

Bob24 · 18-01-2021 09:54AM

Mellor wrote: »

Increases to the price of milk are due to inflation. House price increases are mainly not due to inflation.
Inflation is a factor obviously, but a 5% annual gain is mostly not inflation.

Inflation is a measurement of price increases, not a cause.

And there are several kinds of inflations depending on what you chose to measure. CPI is one, house price inflation is another.

BrandonBay86 · 18-01-2021 11:09AM

Change of topic here.

I know some people here are moving / may have already moved abroad for crypto tax purposes, with Portugal being the recurring theme.

Any thoughts on any other suggestions both near and far, in particular ones which come with other benefits (climate / cost of living etc).

Bob24 · 18-01-2021 11:25AM

BrandonBay86 wrote: »

Change of topic here.

I know some people here are moving / may have already moved abroad for crypto tax purposes, with Portugal being the recurring theme.

Any thoughts on any other suggestions both near and far, in particular ones which come with other benefits (climate / cost of living etc).

Not a suggestion as such, but the below map of CGT rate for each country could be handy in terms of shortlisting European destinations. It doesn't take crypto-specific regulations into account though (but I would be wary of picking a country which offers exceptions for crypto, as you might want to hold other assets types, and exceptions could change anytime with crypto going back to the general taxation regime - as an exemple but on a different topic: Portugal had introduced very attractive tax benefits for foreign pensioners moving to the country, but seems to be scaling it down as the government needs money).

Otherwise in Asia: Singapore and Hong-Kong are nice places with no capital gains tax and where you can live in English. Not cheap though.

makeorbrake · 18-01-2021 12:07PM

Mellor wrote: »

Increases to the price of milk are due to inflation. House price increases are mainly not due to inflation.
Inflation is a factor obviously, but a 5% annual gain is mostly not inflation.

And you are comparing with previous years. It the measurement is the same, the comparison works.

Looks like you are falling for the CPI three card trick. There are different types of inflation including asset inflation. To disregard that is wayward.

Mellor wrote: »

Neither of those are interest. Which is what was being discussed. You've just gone on a weird segway about inflation.

There's no weird segway here. Zoom out and you will appreciate that whether its through inflation or currency devaluation, sovereign governments have made it so that ordinary people who are responsible in saving are punished.

Mellor wrote: »

If that's the case, it's unfortunate, but it's by no means the norm, so a bit silly to paint it as such.

There's nothing silly about it. There are plenty of countries that impose those types of restrictions.

Mucashinto · 18-01-2021 01:34PM

Anything I value or deem necessary seems to have been increasing at a rate far outstripping the advertised rate of inflation for a significant amount of time tbh - education, housing, good food, pension costs etc. As said above I think it's been hidden by easy credit (yay, debt!) and cheap consumer goods.

I also think cheap travel went a good way to dampening any feelings of being poorer and I actually think one of the lasting effects of the current 'crisis' is those days are gone, so interested to see what effect that could have on people's perceptions if it pans out. Sure who needs to go anywhere anyway when you have Zoom :rolleyes:

Mellor · 18-01-2021 02:05PM

Bob24 wrote: »

Inflation is a measurement of price increases, not a cause.

And there are several kinds of inflations depending on what you chose to measure. CPI is one, house price inflation is another.

Well if we’re going to be pedantic.
Inflation IS the increase of prices, not the measurement.
CPI is a measurement of inflation.

And yes there are different types. House price inflation and CPI are different. Which it why it would makes no sense to include house prices in CPI. QED

makeorbrake wrote: »

Looks like you are falling for the CPI three card trick. There are different types of inflation including asset inflation. To disregard that is wayward.

You also acknowledge they are different. Which is is why they are not lump I together. As I said.
Nobody suggested disregarding it. Literally said they are measured in other ways.

There's nothing silly about it. There are plenty of countries that impose those types of restrictions.

I noticed you dodged the question.
Care to list these countries?

I mean they are plenty of oppressive governments out there. I feel sorry for those people, generally. But I don’t consider them the norm or worry about their savings. But you do you.

Bob24 · 18-01-2021 02:31PM

Mucashinto wrote: »

Anything I value or deem necessary seems to have been increasing at a rate far outstripping the advertised rate of inflation for a significant amount of time tbh - education, housing, good food, pension costs etc. As said above I think it's been hidden by easy credit (yay, debt!) and cheap consumer goods.

Hedonic quality adjustment also plays a role in hiding some of the cost increases.

If applied harshly: the price of an entry-level laptop remains flat over 5 years, but the processing power of entry-level laptops has doubled over that period. Adjusted for quality, it means there was a 50% deflation in laptop prices (because for the same money you are getting a laptop which is considered twice as good). And thus technology improvement for laptops is driving down CPI figures even though people are still spending the exact same money on laptops.

In practice it is a bit more nuanced and not as brutal as the above exemple, but it is the idea and it does have the effect of lowering CPI figures. And to be clear this is not theoretical - this type of adjustments is actually applied to most consumer price inflation figures (easy to find sources, but see one here).

Dohnjoe · 18-01-2021 04:26PM

Amazing that the gains are holding and haven't gone off a cliff yet. I wouldn't be surprised to see a drop at the end of the week, but if it doesn't do anything too crazy could set us up for another run. "Rest of the world" Paypal crypto will be pretty big too.

Dnxncofiruwvx · 18-01-2021 04:38PM

Dohnjoe wrote: »

Amazing that the gains are holding and haven't gone off a cliff yet. I wouldn't be surprised to see a drop at the end of the week, but if it doesn't do anything too crazy could set us up for another run. "Rest of the world" Paypal crypto will be pretty big too.

I love the smell of alt season in the morning!

Really though, I think there will a short rally as Bitcoin consolidates and alts catch up on their btc pairs, and the real alt boom will be later on in spring/ summer. But hey, what do I know!

Bruno Mannheim · 18-01-2021 05:12PM

Dnxncofiruwvx wrote: »

what do I know!

nothing

:D:D:D:D

Dohnjoe · 18-01-2021 05:35PM

Dnxncofiruwvx wrote: »

I love the smell of alt season in the morning!

Really though, I think there will a short rally as Bitcoin consolidates and alts catch up on their btc pairs, and the real alt boom will be later on in spring/ summer. But hey, what do I know!

Well I am indulging in a bit of hopium, and the usual disclaimer applies that we could still go off a cliff here

The 1 year and lifetime charts of BTC tell us that it should, but meh, it's crypto, we'll see

Donegal1234 · 18-01-2021 05:52PM

Dohnjoe wrote: »

Amazing that the gains are holding and haven't gone off a cliff yet. I wouldn't be surprised to see a drop at the end of the week, but if it doesn't do anything too crazy could set us up for another run. "Rest of the world" Paypal crypto will be pretty big too.

Here is the volume PayPal deos at the minute. This is just in US for now. Be interesting when it expands into Europe

https://coinmarketcap.com/fr/exchanges/itbit/

grindle · 18-01-2021 06:06PM

Donegal1234 wrote: »

https://coinmarketcap.com/fr/exchanges/itbit/

Here is the volume PayPal deos at the minute. This is just in US for now. Be interesting when it expands into Europe

Surprisingly pathetic figures but I guess they've only entered the deal with Paxos recently. Have they started advertising it over there yet, the way we see with eToro and Revolut here?

cnocbui · 18-01-2021 06:10PM

BrandonBay86 wrote: »

Change of topic here.

I know some people here are moving / may have already moved abroad for crypto tax purposes, with Portugal being the recurring theme.

Any thoughts on any other suggestions both near and far, in particular ones which come with other benefits (climate / cost of living etc).

I'm hoping to head for NZ when some stuff here is sorted and restrictions have lifted. Crypto profits being a small factor. I'm fed up with the taxation system, the weather and the dysfunctional and ridiculous legal system.

Bruno Mannheim · 18-01-2021 06:58PM

Alt season approaching
My tip as follows:
Buy the red ones and wait for them to turn green
Sell, rinse & repeat

Dont chase any green candles and keep a level head and try not to over trade
Some days the best trade is no trade

For me for 2021, Zilliqa is a no brainer
currently offering 16% staking rewards and until October for every 1000 ZIL claimed, you get 1gZil
1gZil currently = 1200 ZIL

Zilliqa has to do a 3x to get to its ATH, easily achievable this year

Dont turn down free money when its offered on a plate like this

Dohnjoe · 18-01-2021 07:05PM

For anyone else reading, we have utterly no idea if "alt season" will happen, maybe it will, maybe it won't. Likewise maybe this coin will go up, maybe it won't. Be wary of anyone shilling any of these like it's a sure thing.

Personally I have high double digit number of alts by this stage from a bad ICO and alt addiction in 2017. Some are "better" than others, but mostly it's a lottery. And pretty much everyone gets wiped in a bear.

Selik · 18-01-2021 07:48PM

If anybody wants a referral link for Bitstamp please PM me. We both get a 50 dollar credit once you make your first trade and it's before the end of this month. It's that simple from what I can see!

Is anyone else starting to become a bit excited?

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