New England Patriots Thread Mod Warning Post #253

el Fenomeno · 05-01-2021 12:48pm

It's not inconceivable we try to move up by packaging some picks + players (Gilmore for example) too.

ELM327 · 05-01-2021 1:00pm

I was just watching the 2012 draft recap, we got Hightower and Jones in the first round on defense.
BB and co do well in managing the draft, trading down (usually) but also trading up for the right player. He usually hits on defense players picked high, even going back to the likes of wilfork and seymour, but often misses on WR
I'd prefer us to trade out of the 15 slot, pick up some solid starters on defense in the draft, and use FA to get another QB. Brissett was passable with us, not good and not bad. Better than Cam.

I'dlove for us to trade and get Jimmy G back but I can't see it happening.

My pick at QB for next year would be Roethlisberger. He has a very high cap number and is 38. He's playing well but PIT have a lot of starters to resign including LT. We could get a trade done. He's One of my all time favorite non NE players so I'd be delighted to see him in blue!

Shedite27 · 05-01-2021 1:00pm

BizzyC wrote: »

In the draft, all the round 1 talent will be gone before we can pick at 15, leaving us with FA to find a new starting QB...

You can never tell with drafts, we got Garoppolo at 64 and Brisett at 91. Maholmes was drafted 10, Russel Wilson 75, Aaron Rodgers 24, Lamar Jackson 32, Deshaun Watson 12, Tom Brady 199, Dak Prescott 135, Kirk Cousins 102.

Meanwhile, Jameis Winston 1, Marcus Mariota 2, Mitch Trubitsky 2, Carson Wentz 2, Blake Bortles 3, Sam Darnold 3.

Which list would you want from your QB from?

el Fenomeno · 05-01-2021 1:03pm

I wouldn't mind taking a shot at Trey Lance. Big guy, similar to Cam. Would fit in well with this new option offence McDaniels put in place for Cam. Would complement our offensive line strengths. We could supplement some receiving options later in the draft - or ideally in FA. I'd love if Kenny Golloday became available.

Mr. Guappa · 05-01-2021 1:09pm

Shedite27 wrote: »

You can never tell with drafts, we got Garoppolo at 64 and Brisett at 91. Maholmes was drafted 10, Russel Wilson 75, Aaron Rodgers 24, Lamar Jackson 32, Deshaun Watson 12, Tom Brady 199, Dak Prescott 135, Kirk Cousins 102.

Meanwhile, Jameis Winston 1, Marcus Mariota 2, Mitch Trubitsky 2, Carson Wentz 2, Blake Bortles 3, Sam Darnold 3.

Which list would you want from your QB from?

In hindsight, the decision not to draft any QB last year is even more baffling. At the time I took it as a huge show of faith in Stidham, but obviously he's not what we hoped, and surely BB knew this last March, so why not take even a mid/late round flyer on a QB hoping to strike gold?

BizzyC · 05-01-2021 1:48pm

Shedite27 wrote: »

You can never tell with drafts, we got Garoppolo at 64 and Brisett at 91. Maholmes was drafted 10, Russel Wilson 75, Aaron Rodgers 24, Lamar Jackson 32, Deshaun Watson 12, Tom Brady 199, Dak Prescott 135, Kirk Cousins 102.

Meanwhile, Jameis Winston 1, Marcus Mariota 2, Mitch Trubitsky 2, Carson Wentz 2, Blake Bortles 3, Sam Darnold 3.

Which list would you want from your QB from?

If you look at the list of starting QB's around the league that were not 1st round picks, its a very small list: Wilson, Brady, Dak, Kirk, Carr. You could add Hurts if you think Wentz is done.

There are plenty of QB's picked in the 1st round who aren't 1st round talent, but the fact still stands that you're more likely to get a starting-caliber QB from the 1st round than any other.

Lawrence is 1st round talent, so is Fields, but they wont be there at 15.
So the question then becomes about the next group in the draft; Lance, Jones, Trask & Wilson.

Are they 1st round talent, or guys who will simply be picked in the 1st round due to team needs.
And if we don't pick one up at 15, will we still have a shot at one at 46 or do we need to stretch on a QB to have a shot at picking up a decent one...

Shedite27 · 05-01-2021 3:37pm

BizzyC wrote: »

If you look at the list of starting QB's around the league that were not 1st round picks, its a very small list: Wilson, Brady, Dak, Kirk, Carr. You could add Hurts if you think Wentz is done.

There are plenty of QB's picked in the 1st round who aren't 1st round talent, but the fact still stands that you're more likely to get a starting-caliber QB from the 1st round than any other.

Lawrence is 1st round talent, so is Fields, but they wont be there at 15.
So the question then becomes about the next group in the draft; Lance, Jones, Trask & Wilson.

Are they 1st round talent, or guys who will simply be picked in the 1st round due to team needs.
And if we don't pick one up at 15, will we still have a shot at one at 46 or do we need to stretch on a QB to have a shot at picking up a decent one...

My point was that there's more starting QB's that were on the board at 15 than not. I don't watch college football but would be happy enough to be picking at 15 if I was QB-shopping

ELM327 · 05-01-2021 4:34pm

Shedite27 wrote: »

My point was that there's more starting QB's that were on the board at 15 than not. I don't watch college football but would be happy enough to be picking at 15 if I was QB-shopping

You could get an Aaron Rodgers or a Brandon Weedin at that range of spot though.

Foxtrol · 05-01-2021 6:20pm

Shedite27 wrote: »

My point was that there's more starting QB's that were on the board at 15 than not. I don't watch college football but would be happy enough to be picking at 15 if I was QB-shopping

That just isn't true though. The % of QBs that were drafted at or after 15 that become starters is absolutely tiny compared to the % of QBs that are selected between 1-14.

Sure you can find a QB from 15 onwards but it becomes less and less likely - generally 2 or 3 QBs are gone by pick 15 with another 10+ selected during the remainder of the draft. The draft involves a lot of luck but as you go on it moves from an educated guess to a complete lottery. You can hit but it is big risk to take with the most important position.

This year I'd be shocked if at least 4 QBs aren't already gone by pick 15, anyone that has a desire for a specific guy will have to move up a lot or be happy to settle for whatever comes even if they are an overpay at 15.

Foxtrol · 05-01-2021 9:11pm

After posting that earlier regarding QBs the below popped up on my timeline. Any team looking for a QB needs to trade up early or just hope they strike gold.

https://twitter.com/PFF_Mike/status/1346534539301183488?s=20

Shedite27 · 05-01-2021 10:31pm

Foxtrol wrote: »

That just isn't true though. The % of QBs that were drafted at or after 15 that become starters is absolutely tiny compared to the % of QBs that are selected between 1-14.

Sure you can find a QB from 15 onwards but it becomes less and less likely - generally 2 or 3 QBs are gone by pick 15 with another 10+ selected during the remainder of the draft. The draft involves a lot of luck but as you go on it moves from an educated guess to a complete lottery. You can hit but it is big risk to take with the most important position.

This year I'd be shocked if at least 4 QBs aren't already gone by pick 15, anyone that has a desire for a specific guy will have to move up a lot or be happy to settle for whatever comes even if they are an overpay at 15.

Well that's only because there's a lot more picked after pick 15 than before it, hence dragging the average down. I assume it's the same for every position.

I'd say there's more NFL starters currently that are picked after 15 than before 15.

If someone can find the gem, there's as likely to be in round 2/3/4 as top 10 pick.

Foxtrol · 05-01-2021 10:57pm

Shedite27 wrote: »

Well that's only because there's a lot more picked after pick 15 than before it, hence dragging the average down. I assume it's the same for every position.

I'd say there's more NFL starters currently that are picked after 15 than before 15.

If someone can find the gem, there's as likely to be in round 2/3/4 as top 10 pick.

The numbers show us it definitely isn't as likely to get that gem in round 2/3/4 as top 10 pick, the opposite is true. The problem you're raising in bold is my whole point, your examples of QBs after the early first round is based off a much larger number of other QBs picked in those rounds not making it. Sure you can find a gem but there is a far higher % of misses, they just aren't as well known as first round busts.

Your point is more an argument for drafting a mid-late round QB every year to see if you get a gem but it is a massive gamble to put your team's season on a QB that slips past the early first round (and even early first round guys come with risks).

Christy42 · 06-01-2021 1:45am

Later round QBs starting
Bucs, Saints, 49ers, Seahawks, Vikings, Jaguars, Raiders, Eagles, Cowboys, Broncos

1st round QBs as main starter (discounting injury)
Pats, Bills, Dolphins, Jets, Steelers, Browns, Ravens, Bengals, Colts, Texans, Titans, Chiefs, Chargers, Giants, Washington, Packers, Bears, Lions, Cardinals, Rams, Falcons, Panthers.

Based on how the season ended but discounting injuries to obvious starters. Obviously some of the above will change before next season.

22 - 10 for the 1st rounders. Given how many more QBs are drafted in later rounds that is a much higher success rate. For first round not top 15 you have Ravens, Panthers, Packers switching sides so still a 19-13 split in favour of the better draft picks. I count 7 1.1 picks starting.

el Fenomeno · 06-01-2021 9:58am

Looks like Caserio is off to Houston as their new GM.

I know it's a promotion, but that's as bad a GM landing spot as I can remember in recent history.

Mr. Guappa · 06-01-2021 10:36am

el Fenomeno wrote: »

Looks like Caserio is off to Houston as their new GM.

I know it's a promotion, but that's as bad a GM landing spot as I can remember in recent history.

Yeah seems like a bad situation there. Not surprised they went with Caserio though, they've been trying to get him with a few years. We resisted all those previous attempts, so obviously did not want to lose him. That said, our drafting has been sub-par recently so a change might be for the best? Not sure how much say Caserio had in our picks though?

ionadnapokot · 06-01-2021 11:58am

How could JG come back to NE?

I dont know how things work in NFL with Trade's and Draft picks etc.

edit:
just came across this.
https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/49ers/could-potential-49ers-patriots-jimmy-garoppolo-trade-be-win-win

ELM327 · 06-01-2021 1:54pm

ionadnapokot wrote: »

How could JG come back to NE?

I dont know how things work in NFL with Trade's and Draft picks etc.

edit:
just came across this.
https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/49ers/could-potential-49ers-patriots-jimmy-garoppolo-trade-be-win-win

Jimmy G for a fifth round pick would be a steal. As good as the moss trade IMO
I'd welcome him back with open arms.

Having a capable QB (not Cam) is only part of the puzzle though. A QB is useless if theres no one to throw to

AbusesToilets · 06-01-2021 3:34pm

Getting Jimmy back at that price would be a fleecing imo. He's had a tough season this year, but he is a top 10-15 QB when he's healthy. Has experience winning playoff games, which is something that can't be said for most other FA options. Also help with trying to attract FAs.

ELM327 · 06-01-2021 3:50pm

I'd part with a second for him. I'd part with a first if we got say a 4th back with him.

ionadnapokot · 06-01-2021 4:47pm

ELM327 wrote: »

Jimmy G for a fifth round pick would be a steal. As good as the moss trade IMO
I'd welcome him back with open arms.

Having a capable QB (not Cam) is only part of the puzzle though. A QB is useless if theres no one to throw to

Sorry now but what is Round 5?
e.g. Round 1 Patriots pick 15th. So round 5 they pick 75th - but give it to 49ers?

That sounds like a steal!

Receiver options good in the Draft? Even for BB!

Mr. Guappa · 06-01-2021 6:05pm

ionadnapokot wrote: »

Sorry now but what is Round 5?
e.g. Round 1 Patriots pick 15th. So round 5 they pick 75th - but give it to 49ers?

That sounds like a steal!

Receiver options good in the Draft? Even for BB!

The draft is 7 rounds, roughly 250 picks in total, depending on how many compensatory picks there were.

Each round is 32 picks, one per team, same position each round, unless a pick is traded.

So, the Jaguars this year will own the first pick in each round - 1, 33, 65.

From the third round on, there will be a number of compensatory picks at the end of each round - these are awarded to teams that have lost high-qualtiy free agents, based on some formula.

The Patriots 5th round pick will be something like the 160th overall selection.

Jolly Red Giant · 06-01-2021 10:16pm

Mr. Guappa wrote: »

Yeah seems like a bad situation there. Not surprised they went with Caserio though, they've been trying to get him with a few years. We resisted all those previous attempts, so obviously did not want to lose him. That said, our drafting has been sub-par recently so a change might be for the best? Not sure how much say Caserio had in our picks though?

Does this open the prospect of McDaniels taking the HC job there?

ionadnapokot · 07-01-2021 1:03am

Mr. Guappa wrote: »

The draft is 7 rounds, roughly 250 picks in total, depending on how many compensatory picks there were.

Each round is 32 picks, one per team, same position each round, unless a pick is traded.

So, the Jaguars this year will own the first pick in each round - 1, 33, 65.

From the third round on, there will be a number of compensatory picks at the end of each round - these are awarded to teams that have lost high-qualtiy free agents, based on some formula.

The Patriots 5th round pick will be something like the 160th overall selection.

My Maths went out the window there! & I forgot to factor in the other teams that are in in the play-offs!

160th pick for JG sounds good!

Any guesses if BB will pick a WR or CB in the 1st round?

el Fenomeno · 07-01-2021 1:58am

Jolly Red Giant wrote: »

Does this open the prospect of McDaniels taking the HC job there?

I bet you hope so.

You haven't been able to bang that drum for a while!

Foxtrol · 07-01-2021 9:18pm

ionadnapokot wrote: »

Sorry now but what is Round 5?
e.g. Round 1 Patriots pick 15th. So round 5 they pick 75th - but give it to 49ers?

That sounds like a steal!

Receiver options good in the Draft? Even for BB!

A steal yes but that is because I'd suspect that is usual offseason ideas completely pulled out of his ass - like the rumour today that Watson could be acquired for 2 1sts and change.

For all the smoke, Jimmy will only be moved if 49ers somehow get Stafford or trade for another good QB or trade the whole way up to get one of the first QBs that would be good to start on day 1 - neither of which are very likely. Even if that happened there'd be enough interest to get more than a 5th, especially as he has 2 years on his deal and at a reasonable cost.

StringerBell · 07-01-2021 10:57pm

I'd not be too pushed to bring Jimmy back tbh, he has a real problem staying on the field it seems! For a 5th it would be a no brainer of course but definitely wouldn't be going with a 2nd for him at this stage, big contract too but I haven't looked into how that can break down as its not a realistic trade for me.

Whats Matt Cassel up to these days though?

Foxtrol · 07-01-2021 11:24pm

StringerBell wrote: »

I'd not be too pushed to bring Jimmy back tbh, he has a real problem staying on the field it seems! For a 5th it would be a no brainer of course but definitely wouldn't be going with a 2nd for him at this stage, big contract too but I haven't looked into how that can break down as its not a realistic trade for me.

Whats Matt Cassel up to these days though?

He will actually be cheap enough next year given the price of QBs these days, as ther 49ers front loaded the contract. If traded he'd be around $25m - one of the lowest non-rookie tied starter contracts.

BrentMused · 15-01-2021 10:14pm

I'm sure many of you guys may have already read it, but I'm about halfway through Jeff Benedict's 'The Dynasty' which I received for Christmas.

What a superb read it is so far.

PhuckHugh · 16-01-2021 12:26pm

BrentMused wrote: »

I'm sure many of you guys may have already read it, but I'm about halfway through Jeff Benedict's 'The Dynasty' which I received for Christmas.

What a superb read it is so far.

Boycott?

eagle eye · 17-01-2021 5:38pm

Gotta say I like Mac Jones a lot. He is very similar to Brady coming out of college with question marks over his deep ball. He's probably more developed than Brady was. What I like about him is how quick he gets the ball out of his hands, his footwork and awareness in the pocket, how quick he checks down and his reading of the defense. Another hugely important trait is making the right decision when the play breaks down whether that's taking the sack or getting rid of the ball, he doesn't make stupid decisions like trying run run backwards and get the throw away and lose huge yardage if he gets sacked or try and throw it with a defender in his face.

New England Patriots Thread Mod Warning Post #253

Comments