Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

Happydays2020 wrote: »

There is an incredible amount of revisionism going on today. We have go our numbers down before and will do so again. The numbers over the last few days are 50% off the peak. Hopefully next Sunday they will be down to 2000 and heading towards 1000 the following week. The vast vast majority of people are compliant.

Cases are still shocking given that the measures were introduced 3 weeks ago now.

Compliance is clearly not that great.

tom1ie wrote: »

Yes and the vast majority will be screwed over by the fact we have an open front door to the virus.

But its not an open door. The numbers coming in are low and additional safeguards are now in place.

Happydays2020 wrote: »

There is an incredible amount of revisionism going on today. We have go our numbers down before and will do so again. The numbers over the last few days are 50% off the peak. Hopefully next Sunday they will be down to 2000 and heading towards 1000 the following week. The vast vast majority of people are compliant.

The numbers are going down slowly.
We have no experience in dealing with this new variant. The assumption that we've done it before so we'll do it again is false. We haven't done it before.

TonyMaloney wrote: »

The numbers are going down slowly.
We have no experience in dealing with this new variant. The assumption that we've done it before so we'll do it again is false. We haven't done it before.

What was the peak? when was this? what are the numbers now?

I'm wondering if the lack lustre reduction in numbers despite level5 is also due to a change in symptoms. According to some GPs more than half of patients no longer have a cough or fever and instead are more typically presenting with symptoms of a head cold and sinus. An article in the IT yesterday mentioned that GPs were finding it had to get people to go for Covid testing because they just don't believe these are Covid symptoms, instead think they have a cold or "my usual sinus infection".

While it isn't publicly understood that these are now the more typical symptoms less will get tested and less will isolate within families. It'll have to have a knock on effect on transmission.

These are 3 different GPs featured in the article below. An A&E dr mentioned the change on RTE news last night briefly too.

Fifty per cent of positive cases at Dr Ilona Duffy’s Monaghan practice over two days recently presented with nasal congestion. “We are calling it the Covid voice – not just a little sniffle, but that sinusitis, blocked nasal sound. Symptoms are beginning earlier, maybe three days after exposure.”
....
We’ve two in ICU. It’s worse than the very beginning, because these are people who are younger.”

The people most at risk are the ones who seem to get better at around five to six days, and then experience a sudden deterioration, she says.

The typical symptoms of cough and loss of taste are still being reported by patients, but “most cases of Covid will not present in the archetypal fashion”.

Among 20- to 40-year-olds, he is seeing a wider range of symptoms, including “head colds, aches and pains, skin sensitivity and upper respiratory symptoms. Fever hasn’t been a huge factor among our patients.”

Last Monday, we had 60 referrals. People don’t have to have a cough or shortness of breath. It’s really varied now. It might be fatigue, a little sore throat, sinus symptoms. Some people have diarrhoea.

You have to keep your antennae attuned. Even when you’re having a conversation with somebody over the phone, they might just have a little dry cough” – he makes a sound like clearing his throat – “mid-sentence, and that might be enough to refer them. And they are shocked when they come back positive.”

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/health-family/irish-gps-fighting-third-wave-covid-on-the-front-line-of-the-world-s-worst-outbreak-1.4458430

Happydays2020 wrote: »

What mass influx? It was tiny compared to normal years. The main cause of this was greater mixing - the virus was already here. I am sure there is an element to this, and I agree we should already have had the negative PCR complemented by antigen testing on arrival in place in December which was part of the ECDC recommendations.

But its it also the case that Tony Holohan told Mike Ryan (who told the world) on Monday it was not to do with the UK strain but rather mixing?

The virus was already here but in much smaller quantities. *120k arrivals in normal times is insignificant, but these are not normal.times and it is likely a large amount of those wo travelled here came from Britain.

The statement from TH and MR rings true, the original cause for the increase of infection was due to people mixing. The variant may be more infectious but it's not magic, it can only spread when people mix.

*ETA: Apologies, it was 54K arrivals to ROI, point still stands.

ginoginelli wrote: »

It doesnt even have to be zero covid. The Korean approach has proven to control the virus.

Strict 2 week quarantine for all arrivals. (This is key)
Effective track and trace.
Appropriate mask use.

Once we reduced the numbers significantly in the community we could then comfortably "live with covid" until widespread vaccination.

They also track mobile phone and credit card data - which GDPR would never allow.

Happydays2020 wrote: »

If nightclubs in Belmullet stayed closed in line with Government recommendations and if households did not mix in line with Government recommendations (including the stricter rules applying from 30 December) then it would not have been as much of a factor. It was as much cause of people coming from Dublin and other urban centres as anything else.

It was a bit of everything but the case rates in the U.K. and community infection, particularly in London were extremely high and the infectious new strain was present there.

From Ireland’s point of view, London is the local big city. Let’s not kid ourselves. It’s returning emigrants in the same way that people flying home from NYC to Vermont is in terms of patterns of movement.

Travel from the U.K. was banned days before Christmas, including by other European countries like France.

We didn’t really have the ability to do that because of Northern Ireland being used as a back door.

Happydays2020 wrote: »

What mass influx? It was tiny compared to normal years. The main cause of this was greater mixing - the virus was already here. I am sure there is an element to this, and I agree we should already have had the negative PCR complemented by antigen testing on arrival in place in December which was part of the ECDC recommendations.

But its it also the case that Tony Holohan told Mike Ryan (who told the world) on Monday it was not to do with the UK strain but rather mixing?

Have to agree with this. Someone I know who lives and works n Dublin were out in pubs and restaurants several times in the run up to Xmas. His rationale was to get the partying out of the way and then isolate before coming back down the country for the Xmas. Two problems, the isolation that he was imposing to just a week and it wasn't taking into account his any of his own family in Dublin maybe developing symptoms a few days later having already travelled down the country. According to him them earlier weeks in December were like normal, drinks on a Friday after work etc. they just had to have a meal.

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

Can I ask where you are getting ,56,000 from? I thought it was nearly double that.

IT say over 54,000.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/more-than-54-000-people-flew-into-state-over-festive-period-1.4453610

Datacore wrote: »

It was a bit of everything but the case rates in the U.K. and community infection, particularly in London were extremely high and the infectious new strain was present there.

From Ireland’s point of view, London is the local big city. Let’s not kid ourselves. It’s returning emigrants in the same way that people flying home from NYC to Vermont is in terms of patterns of movement.

Travel from the U.K. was banned days before Christmas, including by other European countries like France.

We didn’t really have the ability to do that because of Northern Ireland being used as a back door.

If we knew about the UK strain we would have acted sooner. And we should already have been requesting negative PCR tests given overall levels in the UK which was envisaged by the ECDC system from red zones. These two factors would have limited numbers and the former may have changed advice - noting that advice did change on 22 December (but unfortunately was ignored by many which would have minimised the damage).

But you rightfully highlight the backdoor problem which is why ZC is not a realistic option. we have to manage the risk as much as we possibly can.

Basically unless there’s a Common Travel Area coordinated approach to this, we are not going to be able to manage it, but it means being bolted to Boris’ brand of Brexity exceptionalism and a government that too approaches like “just let it wash through the country.”

We’re not willing to control the Northern Ireland border, seemingly even less so than we are willing to enforce bans on domestic intercounty travel because we are terrified of the violent implications that might bring about and Northern Ireland’s government was and is determined to ensure the people of ‘Ulster’ have the same right to die of COVID as their English counterparts due to being dogmatists instead of pragmatists, so we are where we are. If Coronavirus is good enough for Her Majesty’s subjects ‘on the mainland’ then it seems the people of NI must suffer the same fate.

Happydays2020 wrote: »

But its not an open door. The numbers coming in are low and additional safeguards are now in place.

Safeguards that no one avails of as they are not enforced!
Your view is quite naive.

is_that_so wrote: »

IT say over 54,000.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/more-than-54-000-people-flew-into-state-over-festive-period-1.4453610

That figure doesn’t include those who flew/sailed into Belfast though after travel to the Repblic was stopped.