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Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

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Comments

  • #6092
    Russman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,978 ✭✭✭Russman


    Ironhead93 wrote: »
    I'm still a little baffled how high the numbers have gotten, did we really have the least restricted Christmas in the world? (obviously excluding outliers like NZ AND AUS)

    A little bit of that, and I think a certain minority went bananas in December because the govt said it was ok.
    Remember though the narrative was that we were the best in Europe etc. and it was no doubt fed by fatigue across the population. Hindsight is great in fairness.


  • #6093
    iamwhoiam
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,248 ✭✭✭✭iamwhoiam


    wadacrack wrote: »
    Not testing close contacts with a virus that transmits asymptomatically and new variants makes it very difficult to suppress. I think we will stall a about 1,500-2,000

    Close contacts are contacted by text and given the recommendations to restrict movement and given a date when they can go out again
    I was a close contact and got a daily text to remind me of it and the dates


  • #6094
    Away With The Fairies
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,077 ✭✭✭Away With The Fairies


    is_that_so wrote: »
    They will return to them when positivity rates and daily positive cases come down. Today's numbers for example could produce an extra 6-9K close contacts.

    I know close contacts has to isolate. But it's close contacts of close contacts. So how will the numbers reduce when there's people out there who doesn't know they have it and spreading it?


  • #6095
    Marty Bird
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,250 ✭✭✭Marty Bird


    Turtwig wrote: »
    Except they never said this. You made this interpretation yourself. Population level risk and individual risk are two who very different things. Look at how tiny our cases numbers have been for our systems to become crippled. Even if the proportion of people requiring healthcare drops it's not beyond possibility that there is still a very finite number of infections to so called lower risk groups that the health system can absorb. It would allow us have higher daily case numbers than now. With exponential growth that would at most buy us a few weeks. Little more.

    Hang on there that’s exactly how this was spelt out from the beginning that’s it not serious to the vast majority of people.

    That with uncontrollable spread we cannot protect the vulnerable and the people most at risk and to stop the pressure on the health service from those very groups that get seriously ill with it.

    🌞6.02kWp⚡️3.01kWp South/East⚡️3.01kWp West



  • #6096
    Harry Palmr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    Ironhead93 wrote: »
    I'm still a little baffled how high the numbers have gotten, did we really have the least restricted Christmas in the world? (obviously excluding outliers like NZ AND AUS)

    Yes, our run up to Christmas was the Thanksgiving of Ireland.

    Much of UK was in greater lockdown and most of Europe doesn't celebrate the 25th in any event and even with that in mind do not do so by going to the pub en mass or inviting 15 people round for dinner.


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  • #6097
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Away With The Fairies wrote: »
    I know close contacts has to isolate. But it's close contacts of close contacts. So how will the numbers reduce when there's people out there who doesn't know they have it and spreading it?

    Close contacts of close contacts have never had to isolate


  • #6098
    Russman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,978 ✭✭✭Russman


    Jim_Hodge wrote: »
    Ach it's not that definitive. SOME, even MANY, people perhaps but there are still large numbers of people sticking rigidly to the guidelines. I agree that too many aren't giving it full adherence but there are many more taking it very seriously. Indeed, I've heard previously sceptical people starting to at last take it seriously in just the past week,

    Yep, I agree with this. Someone I was speaking to only yesterday was previously a bit meh about the whole thing and was a regular with a group of friends in a pub that flouted the rules all along, and even he is now ultra compliant and concerned as he knows a few people who got it in the last few weeks, whereas it was previously just something “out there” from his perspective.
    I regularly give a housemate who is an essential worker, a lift to/from work and traffic seems to me to be substantially less than November but nowhere near April/May levels.


  • #6099
    Away With The Fairies
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,077 ✭✭✭Away With The Fairies


    Stheno wrote: »
    Close contacts of close contacts have never had to isolate

    We need to test close contacts so if they turn out positive we can identify their close contacts. That's the problem when not testing close contacts.


  • #6100
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,178 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    wadacrack wrote: »
    Not testing close contacts with a virus that transmits asymptomatically and new variants makes it very difficult to suppress. I think we will stall a about 1,500-2,000

    I guess the advice for close contacts won't change so that they still restrict movements. But yeah you'd wonder how many are being missed because some close contacts might not only restrict if they get definite positive result.


  • #6101
    wadacrack
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,172 ✭✭✭wadacrack


    Stheno wrote: »
    Close contacts of close contacts have never had to isolate

    If close contacts are being tested this changes. They are a close contact of a confirmed case and more likely to comply. More chains of transmission are broken and the Ro drops. Not testing them is severely limiting our efforts to suppress this virus and the UK variant will probably be dominant within 3-4 weeks.


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  • #6102
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Away With The Fairies wrote: »
    I know close contacts has to isolate. But it's close contacts of close contacts. So how will the numbers reduce when there's people out there who doesn't know they have it and spreading it?
    We should all be staying away from other people anyway.


  • #6103
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    cameramonkey wrote: »
    Would you like the political system of Vietnam in Ireland? These things often go hand in hand because they have an ability to control their populations with laws that would not be accepted in Ireland.

    We weren't far off it for most of the last century. Any woman who had a child out of wedlock was quickly quarantined from the community to save the shame of the family in the eyes of the community and the Catholic Church.

    I guess they thought that it was contagious.


  • #6104
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    Russman wrote: »
    Which is really good, but we’re now two weeks out from New Years and supposedly in the highest level of restrictions, where are three thousand people a day still getting covid ?

    Has there been any info from Govt. on this? Even if 50% happening from hospitalisation still along of other cases and as above poster says, New Years is a long time ago now.


  • #6105
    Sweet.Science
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,985 ✭✭✭Sweet.Science


    Would anyone know what the positive swab number for last Saturday was ?


  • #6106
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,599 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    Sweet.Science wrote: »
    Would anyone know what the positive swab number for last Saturday was ?

    5099

    You can find the numbers for last week here

    https://covid19.shanehastings.eu/api/swabs/


  • #6107
    BringBackMick
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,100 ✭✭✭BringBackMick


    Sweet.Science wrote: »
    Would anyone know what the positive swab number for last Saturday was ?

    4842 confirmed cases
    5099 positive swabs

    1 week on
    3231 confirmed cases
    3063 positive swabs


    Are people actually trying to say progress is bad?


  • #6108
    BringBackMick
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,100 ✭✭✭BringBackMick


    At rate of decline this day next week we can hope for

    Cases/ positive swabs around 2000


  • #6109
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Sweet.Science wrote: »
    Would anyone know what the positive swab number for last Saturday was ?

    https://twitter.com/COVID19DataIE/status/1347927617668833280?s=19

    https://twitter.com/COVID19DataIE/status/1350459803756331012?s=19


  • #6110
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,976 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Arduach wrote: »
    And today will be as far away come Monday making today's guestimates redundant. We just don't know how many leave hospital when, making a number increase in hospital look artificially high or low. The figures won't go down in a hurry with a continued base of 3k cases a day.

    This.
    Numbers of admissions did slow very slightly towards the end of the week .
    However the patients in ICU are less predictable and those numbers will continue to climb for a few weeks after case numbers and hospital admissions stabilise .


  • #6111
    BringBackMick
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,100 ✭✭✭BringBackMick


    16/01 3200
    23/01 ~2000
    30/01 ~1400
    6/02 ~1000
    13/02 ~700
    20/02 ~400

    So from the extremely amateurish calculations above, if we stay the course our cases numbers will be at respectable levels by late Feb... I think schools need to remain shut until around then


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  • #6112
    CrabRevolution
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,959 ✭✭✭CrabRevolution


    BringBackMick wrote: »
    4842 confirmed cases
    5099 positive swabs

    1 week on
    3231 confirmed cases
    3063 positive swabs


    Are people actually trying to say progress is bad?
    I wouldn't say it's bad, but it's disappointing considering the country has now come through more than a whole 14 day incubation cycle of what should be extremely limited opportunities to spread the disease.


  • #6113
    Russman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,978 ✭✭✭Russman


    As an aside, am I correct in saying that if you’re a confirmed case you’re told a definite date that you have to isolate until ?
    I know of someone (an in-law of a friend) who tested positive on a tuesday and went back to work on the following Monday, 6 days later, claiming that “they” said it was ok to go back as long as he was feeling ok. I called horsesh1t on that but wanted to check !


  • #6114
    MerlinSouthDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,627 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    BringBackMick wrote: »
    4842 confirmed cases
    5099 positive swabs

    1 week on
    3231 confirmed cases
    3063 positive swabs


    Are people actually trying to say progress is bad?

    Progress is decent. Also encouraging that Ronan Glynn said we were down to an average of 2.3 close contacts (remarkably low). It would be nice if we could fall as quickly as we rose in case numbers but that was never going to happen.


  • #6115
    kilkenny31
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 701 ✭✭✭kilkenny31


    Russman wrote: »
    As an aside, am I correct in saying that if you’re a confirmed case you’re told a definite date that you have to isolate until ?
    I know of someone (an in-law of a friend) who tested positive on a tuesday and went back to work on the following Monday, 6 days later, claiming that “they” said it was ok to go back as long as he was feeling ok. I called horsesh1t on that but wanted to check !


    Depends. Were they tested because the had symptoms?


  • #6116
    BringBackMick
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,100 ✭✭✭BringBackMick


    CrabRevolution wrote: »
    I wouldn't say it's bad, but it's disappointing considering the country has now come through more than a whole 14 day incubation cycle of what should be extremely limited opportunities to spread the disease.

    Main issue is disease is rife in hospitals, as alluded to, half of the hospitalised cases were acquired in hospital

    1 person infected in ward of 6, 6 people will inevitably catch in few days.

    Community transmission is much lower but spread in nursing homes and health care facilities will remain stubbornly high for some weeks


  • #6117
    blowitupref
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,135 ✭✭✭blowitupref


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    Yes, but that's because of the backlog.

    The decline in swabs does seem worryingly slow

    We had more backlog cases this week than last week. Near 16,000 less positive swabs is passable for now but we need to see the same if not a bigger decrease for the week ahead.

    Last seven days

    23937 positive swabs
    29156 confirmed cases

    Previous seven days

    39605 positive swabs
    43844 confirmed cases


  • #6118
    ax530
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 493 ✭✭ax530


    Russman wrote: »
    As an aside, am I correct in saying that if you’re a confirmed case you’re told a definite date that you have to isolate until ?
    I know of someone (an in-law of a friend) who tested positive on a tuesday and went back to work on the following Monday, 6 days later, claiming that “they” said it was ok to go back as long as he was feeling ok. I called horsesh1t on that but wanted to check !

    People I know who tested positive were given a date by the HSE person who called them. Different date each both same house, both tested same day.
    I believe it is 10 days after symptoms started. But could also have included number of days after certain symptoms has passed.
    I was a close contact of them so my restrictions were longer, as I had met 2nd day symptoms and I had 14 day from then. (I had a neg test during this time) this was during Oct wave so only 1 test for me as a contact.


  • #6119
    gctest50
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,597 ✭✭✭gctest50


    Seems Eircom boy Paul Reid is getting pissy with Denis OBriens Beacon Hospital management since they won't sign his love note :


    " Paul Reid, who was speaking to Katie Hannon on RTÉ Radio One, blasted management of the Beacon for failing to sign up to a deal to allow the HSE to use beds in private hospitals in order to tackle the current Covid-19 crisis."


    This is despite Beacon doing more than the rest:



    : “Beacon Hospital is treating more public patients than any of the 17 other private hospitals.

    “Public patients currently occupy over 55% of our Intensive Care Unit (ICU) and approximately 15%-20% of all surgery for the last four months has been done on behalf of public hospitals such as the Mater Public, St James’ Hospital, Tallaght, Children’s Health Ireland (Crumlin), Tullamore and University Hospital Limerick under existing arrangements.”



    https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40208384.html


  • #6120
    ax530
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 493 ✭✭ax530


    Russman wrote: »
    As an aside, am I correct in saying that if you’re a confirmed case you’re told a definite date that you have to isolate until ?
    I know of someone (an in-law of a friend) who tested positive on a tuesday and went back to work on the following Monday, 6 days later, claiming that “they” said it was ok to go back as long as he was feeling ok. I called horsesh1t on that but wanted to check !

    People I know who tested positive were given a date by the HSE person who called them. Different date each both same house, both tested same day.
    I believe it is 10 days after symptoms started. But could also have included number of days after certain symptoms has passed.
    I was a close contact of them so my restrictions were longer, as I had met 2nd day symptoms and I had 14 day from then. (I had a neg test during this time) this was during Oct wave so only 1 test for me as a contact.


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  • #6121
    marno21
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,650 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    John develops symptoms on January 4th and tests positive and begins self isolating. John’s only 2 contacts are his wife Mary and his son Mikie. Mikie and Mary also self isolate and test positive on the 10th. Mikie and Mary have 2 contacts but 1 contact is recovering from it having it for a week and the other is positive now. Assuming they continue to self isolate, the virus dies out in the home, but from the data there’s been growth from the 4th to the 10th.

    The above is a crude example but if people are now following the latest rules in place since the 7th, the virus will spread primarily in private households. The virus will produce positives this week and next week but it should go into decline then. The majority ARE following the rules and if you are following the rules it’ll start going into serious decline soon.


This discussion has been closed.
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