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Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

1…194195197199200…333

Comments

  • #5882
    MerlinSouthDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,627 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    majcos wrote: »
    Increase in Covid cases in hospital/in ICU in January 2021.

    1st +54/+9
    2nd +89/+6
    3rd +123/+9
    4th +38/+7
    5th +103/+3
    6th +104/+13
    7th +99/+7
    8th +138/+12
    9th +139/+13
    10th +146/+7
    11th +121/+16
    12th +66/+15
    13th +47/+16
    14th +52/-3
    15th +67/+14

    Thanks Majcos. I'm not quite following your numbers, are you basing this off cases in hospital at 8 am or 8 pm? ICU capacity is going to a big problem, it could be another week before ICU numbers stabilise


  • #5883
    Ironhead93
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 60 ✭✭Ironhead93


    Drumpot wrote: »
    The popular reaction of people to that article is quite telling.

    If people reject bad news because of how it’s packaged , it would help explain why people so easily made up their own rules during Christmas that played a huge role in our surge making global headlines.

    NEPHET asked everybody to reduce contacts and maintain vigilance when things opened up but Most people chose to interpret it as things are fine because levels are being lowered. If we can learn nothing else from this crisis but to learn to filter out noise and take important information from credible sources we will be better for it.


    To play devils advocate, the government were overly restrictive throughout the the summer when our cases were consistently double digits, same old 'next 2 weeks are critical blah blah' no matter where the numbers were. Many people were certainly irresponsible and socialised too much during the holiday season but you cannot realistically expect widespread compliance after NPHET continuously crying wolf and the public having lived more restrictively than anywhere in Europe for 9 months at that point.

    I think the government would have moved into level 5 in Jan regardless of what happened over Christmas, everyone I talked to expected a full lockdown looming and just wanted to make hay while possible. Point is the blame doesn't fall entirely on one side. You cannot stop human nature indefinitely pandemic or not, people will socialise it's inevitable.


  • #5884
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,178 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    I'm not quite sure what this article is based on. Thought ICU figures were slowly stabilising. Unless thing go drastically wrong this weekend I can't see how it could happen this weekend.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/ireland/covid-in-ireland-icu-beds-will-all-be-full-by-monday-doctor-warns-0gql89zzx?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1610787154


  • #5885
    wadacrack
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,172 ✭✭✭wadacrack


    Eod100 wrote: »
    I'm not quite sure what this article is based on. Thought ICU figures were slowly stabilising. Unless thing go drastically wrong this weekend I can't see how it could happen this weekend.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/ireland/covid-in-ireland-icu-beds-will-all-be-full-by-monday-doctor-warns-0gql89zzx?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1610787154

    Stabilising at a very high rate we have to remember, Cases per day still over 3,000. Unsustainable and probably not slowing enough. Mobility data not encouraging also.

    We have to put into context how bad it still is, 15-20 per day admitted to ICU. That was near our total ICU number at one point in early October


  • #5886
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,178 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    wadacrack wrote: »
    Stabilising at a very high rate we have to remember, Cases per day still over 3,000. Unsustainable and probably not slowing enough. Mobility data not encouraging also

    Sure, I don't think the ICU numbers have peaked yet and know there will be a lag but based on current increases can't see how ICUs would be full by this weekend. Unless it means having to go into surge capacity but thought that was being used in some cases already.


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  • #5887
    Probes
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 466 ✭✭Probes


    Ironhead93 wrote: »
    To play devils advocate, the government were overly restrictive throughout the the summer when our cases were consistently double digits, same old 'next 2 weeks are critical blah blah' no matter where the numbers were. Many people were certainly irresponsible and socialised too much during the holiday season but you cannot realistically expect widespread compliance after NPHET continuously crying wolf and the public having lived more restrictively than anywhere in Europe for 9 months at that point.

    I think the government would have moved into level 5 in Jan regardless of what happened over Christmas, everyone I talked to expected a full lockdown looming and just wanted to make hay while possible. Point is the blame doesn't fall entirely on one side. You cannot stop human nature indefinitely pandemic or not, people will socialise it's inevitable.

    Don't agree that they were overly restrictive. The problem is there has never been a long term strategy, hence as soon as the restrictions are lifted we reintroduce the virus to the population and it goes out of control.


  • #5888
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    Doctor Jimbob wrote: »
    The main issue I have with that article is it didn't even consider the possibility that these new symptoms could be a combination of the general sinus issues that a lot of people in this country get in winter, combined with asymptomatic covid. I'm not trying to say that's definitely the case, but it seems strange that it doesn't seem to be considered as a possibility. Obviously this is anecdotal, but I get vague nose and throat symptoms most winters. I went to my GP about it, he said it's very common in the area and suspects it's dampness related. Lumping common symptoms like that with an illness that we know presents asymptomatically in a lot of people seems like jumping to conclusions in my eyes.

    The general message that people need to be more careful is spot on though. I know that's unpalatable for a lot of people but the fact of the matter is this thing is spreading like crazy at the moment and there are a lot of vulnerable people out there.

    Agreed. Like NEPHET asking us to reduce contacts and reduce socialising (even over Christmas) was the most important message. I feel the problem is quite regularly not the message but how people choose to interpret the message.

    I think fear and anxiety are very much misunderstood. Too much is bad but not enough relative to the situation is equally bad. Unfortunately at times we as a society haven’t responded as well as we can and haven’t adapted our behavior enough to prevent the severe spread we are seeing.

    Fear and anxiety are biological traits we have to protect us, ignoring scary information because it scares us or makes us anxious doesn’t help us in a crisis. Being able to filter important information is imperative and I would argue would of led to a better response from public. But we are programmed to conform in school and society doesn’t promote independent critical thinking. It rewards consensus and hive thinking that sometimes right but can be tragically wrong.

    The banks and government “were to blame for 2007”. Now its NEPHET, government and media that’s to blame? Hmmm. Why do we never look at ourselves and think “well maybe if we looked at our role, as a society in the baking crisis or Christmas surge, we could find out how to make sure this doesn’t happen again”. But these are harsh truths we don’t want to explore.

    I know this is not a popular stance to take but I’m fed up of us constantly blaming everything else for the problems we face. It’s not about blame, it’s about responsibility and actively addressing the Actual causes of issues that are made worse by human behaviour. Part of that is the denial of responsibility and refusal (quite often belligerent in case of lockdowns) to adapt to the situation as it unfolds.


  • #5889
    CrabRevolution
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,959 ✭✭✭CrabRevolution


    I know it's down to trying to find the bright side, but people's interpretation of the stats is pretty skewed. Once people see that the increase has slowed, they think the job is done, we're over the hill and are about to coast easily to safety.
    I was disagreeing with a poster recently who bizarrely claimed in response to the slowdown in growth "We're in a good place" when we're actually in the worst situation we've ever been in.

    I haven't looked at the mobility data but my own non-scientific measure is a motorway I pass over every day on the way to work. During the last lockdown it was eerily empty, but passing it the last few days it still had a decent stream of traffic. Even allowing for essential workers it's not heartening.


  • #5890
    majcos
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 596 ✭✭✭majcos


    MerlinSouthDub wrote: »
    Thanks Majcos. I'm not quite following your numbers, are you basing this off cases in hospital at 8 am or 8 pm? ICU capacity is going to a big problem, it could be another week before ICU numbers stabilise
    Data from HSE operations reports. The figures used are the total confirmed cases at 8pm. ICU numbers are as of 6.30pm each day.

    (Corrected error on 15th in original post.)


  • #5891
    Probes
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 466 ✭✭Probes


    The main problem for me in all this is that much of the time we are asking individuals to take care of society when we all know that not all individuals will comply. This disease needs a concerted societal response which sticks in the craw of anyone remotely right wing or libertarian. That's why I think we are all a bit doomed to have the same circumstance play out over and over, the short history of the virus has shown that intense restrictions to eliminate the virus allow for more freedom most of the time, but no one wants to live with restrictions like they have in China when things go pear shaped.


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  • #5892
    majcos
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 596 ✭✭✭majcos


    Happydays2020 wrote: »
    The last 4 days are particularly encouraging vs the previous 4 days.
    Fingers crossed. It’s even better as I made an error on increase on 15th. That should read +15 in hospital numbers.


  • #5893
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 8,647 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    According to the statistics, there will be over 2k in hospital with covid by Monday.


  • #5894
    Datacore
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 178 ✭✭Datacore


    The least worse case scenario is a short, sharp spike and we might just about avoid meltdown of the hospitals.

    That’s increasingly looking less and less likely as the figure of >3000 cases a day just isn’t sustainable. We need to be on a much steeper downwards trajectory.


  • #5895
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    Ironhead93 wrote: »
    To play devils advocate, the government were overly restrictive throughout the the summer when our cases were consistently double digits, same old 'next 2 weeks are critical blah blah' no matter where the numbers were. Many people were certainly irresponsible and socialised too much during the holiday season but you cannot realistically expect widespread compliance after NPHET continuously crying wolf and the public having lived more restrictively than anywhere in Europe for 9 months at that point.

    I think the government would have moved into level 5 in Jan regardless of what happened over Christmas, everyone I talked to expected a full lockdown looming and just wanted to make hay while possible. Point is the blame doesn't fall entirely on one side. You cannot stop human nature indefinitely pandemic or not, people will socialise it's inevitable.

    I don’t believe discussing blame is relevant. It’s more important to focus on responsibility. What was NEPHETs responsibility? What was the general public and government’s responsibility?

    This is a pandemic where we needed to shift resources and priorities to our health.

    I’d argue out of all three NEPHET were the most responsible and tried primarily (despite unpopular views and government influence) to stick to what they thought was needed to suppress the virus and protect society. What was their primary message? In general it was “Reduce social contacts, reduce socialising and don’t make unnecessary trips”.

    The public were somewhat compliant but surges happened when more things opened. Our failure to adapt (unless everything is closed and we have no choice) has been a problem. It’s not human nature to goto pubs or resteraunt or gyms or even schools, these are just modern ways we have of interacting abs educating. It’s certainly human nature to crave these things as they are our ways of interacting or socialising but they aren’t imperative to our survival during a crisis. I believe people have tried to explain and excuse unwise behavior and strategies “because we are human”.

    The government try to balance everything with a heavy motive towards giving the majority what they want. This in essence sums up Christmas and our surge. This needs to be recognized if we want to learn anything. What we as a society wanted in December has had a huge knock on effect. We elect these politicians so what responsibility do we take for their actions?

    I appreciate I am in the minority and that my views will not be popular, but I’m not posting to be popular. Every time we fave a crisis we do what our government do and find somebody to blame for the state of things. We are where we are with this surge because the people wanted to open up in December and we are reaping the rewards of what we wanted.


  • #5896
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    According to the statistics, there will be over 2k in hospital with covid by Monday.
    A net increase of 152 seems very unlikely at this point. We might exceed 1900 if we're unlucky


  • #5897
    Mimon
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭Mimon


    Probes wrote: »
    The main problem for me in all this is that much of the time we are asking individuals to take care of society when we all know that not all individuals will comply. This disease needs a concerted societal response which sticks in the craw of anyone remotely right wing or libertarian. That's why I think we are all a bit doomed to have the same circumstance play out over and over, the short history of the virus has shown that intense restrictions to eliminate the virus allow for more freedom most of the time, but no one wants to live with restrictions like they have in China when things go pear shaped.

    Can't see why you think Libertarians would have an issue with restrictions. They are against needless government interventions but surely this is an essential intervention for the sake of public health.

    I would class myself as leaning towards the Libertarian end of the spectrum but see no issues with interventions to save lives and protect health.


  • #5898
    Datacore
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 178 ✭✭Datacore


    One of the things that’s worrying me is the messaging is *still* not getting though and isn’t clear.

    They need to actually publish a “stay at home mandate” a lot of people I’ve spoken to this morning by phone for business stuff don’t seem to understand that’s what Level 5 means.

    They’ve vague notions about 5km limits. One person thought it was a 2km limit. Many of them seem to be confused as to whether or not they can go shopping or get coffee out etc etc

    One person seemed to think it was ok to meet your friends if it was in the park or standing on the street.

    It’s also very different in the cities as your 5km area contains lots of stuff and you’ll get people out and about doing all sorts.

    I’d have a lot of concern that the government is addressing a bubble of media and those of us who are very engaged with this topic online.

    A lot of people aren’t as clear about it as we might believe based on dipping into a thread like this.

    I really think the also need to use emergency SMS broadcast alerts. They’re probably far more likely to get through to people than expecting them to have all turned into certain tv and radio shows.

    I’d also add that some of them are confusing levels with what’s going on with English Tier numbers too.

    There’s way too much jargon about levels, tires, and unfortunately many people aren’t going to go Google a table to figure out what it means.


  • #5899
    DraftDodger
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 284 ✭✭DraftDodger


    Deleted User wrote: »
    According to the statistics, there will be over 2k in hospital with covid by Monday.

    At least people had a great Xmas though.

    That's all that matters or something.


  • #5900
    Mimon
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭Mimon


    Drumpot wrote: »
    I don’t believe discussing blame is relevant. It’s more important to focus on responsibility. What was NEPHETs responsibility? What was the general public and government’s responsibility?

    This is a pandemic where we needed to shift resources and priorities to our health.

    I’d argue out of all three NEPHET were the most responsible and tried primarily (despite unpopular views and government influence) to stick to what they thought was needed to suppress the virus and protect society. What was their primary message? In general it was “Reduce social contacts, reduce socialising and don’t make unnecessary trips”.

    The public were somewhat compliant but surges happened when more things opened. Our failure to adapt (unless everything is closed and we have no choice) has been a problem. It’s not human nature to goto pubs or resteraunt or gyms or even schools, these are just modern ways we have of interacting abs educating. It’s certainly human nature to crave these things as they are our ways of interacting or socialising but they aren’t imperative to our survival during a crisis. I believe people have tried to explain and excuse unwise behavior and strategies “because we are human”.

    The government try to balance everything with a heavy motive towards giving the majority what they want. This in essence sums up Christmas and our surge. This needs to be recognized if we want to learn anything. What we as a society wanted in December has had a huge knock on effect. We elect these politicians so what responsibility do we take for their actions?

    I appreciate I am in the minority and that my views will not be popular, but I’m not posting to be popular. Every time we fave a crisis we do what our government do and find somebody to blame for the state of things. We are where we are with this surge because the people wanted to open up in December and we are reaping the rewards of what we wanted.

    Good post.

    The government saw the trend in the week before Christmas - the horse had it's head at the gate looking to where it could bolt to. The government didn't shut the gate as people would have complained after being told the horse was coming out to play.

    At that stage people should have been told not to travel, to celebrate Christmas in their own houses and only an exemption made for people living on their own.


  • #5901
    majcos
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 596 ✭✭✭majcos


    Eod100 wrote: »
    I'm not quite sure what this article is based on. Thought ICU figures were slowly stabilising. Unless thing go drastically wrong this weekend I can't see how it could happen this weekend.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/ireland/covid-in-ireland-icu-beds-will-all-be-full-by-monday-doctor-warns-0gql89zzx?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1610787154
    Not sure why they are quoting from a ‘junior doctor’. I cannot read the whole article so maybe they have other interviewees. He may not be at all wrong as ICU admissions are still increasing here and I don’t think his opinion should be discounted entirely but it’s strange to use him as a source.

    (The term ‘junior doctor’ is somewhat offensive to many doctors who work in our hospitals. It’s not an official grade or category at all. Media seem to use it when referring to all non-consultant hospital doctors. Some are very far from junior and are aged in their 40s/50s/60s with decades of experience as doctors.)


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  • #5902
    DraftDodger
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 284 ✭✭DraftDodger


    Datacore wrote: »
    One of the things that’s worrying me is the messaging is *still* not getting though and isn’t clear.

    They need to actually publish a “stay at home mandate” a lot of people I’ve spoken to this morning by phone for business stuff don’t seem to understand that’s what Level 5 means.

    They’ve vague notions about 5km limits. One person thought it was a 2km limit. Many of them seem to be confused as to whether or not they can go shopping or get coffee out etc etc

    One person seemed to think it was ok to meet your friends if it was in the park or standing on the street.

    It’s also very different in the cities as your 5km area contains lots of stuff and you’ll get people out and about doing all sorts.

    I’d have a lot of concern that the government is addressing a bubble of media and those of us who are very engaged with this topic online.

    A lot of people aren’t as clear about it as we might believe based on dipping into a thread like this.

    I really think the also need to use emergency SMS broadcast alerts. They’re probably far more likely to get through to people than expecting them to have all turned into certain tv and radio shows.

    People are just plain thick tbh. There is a public house near me here in Mount Merrion and it has a take away coffee place outside and it was absolutely packed with people standing around in groups as i went past on the way home from work this morning. Having a coffee is absolutely essential in the middle of a pandemic obviously.


  • #5903
    Funsterdelux
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭Funsterdelux


    Datacore wrote: »
    One of the things that’s worrying me is the messaging is *still* not getting though and isn’t clear.

    They need to actually publish a “stay at home mandate” a lot of people I’ve spoken to this morning by phone for business stuff don’t seem to understand that’s what Level 5 means.

    They’ve vague notions about 5km limits. One person thought it was a 2km limit. Many of them seem to be confused as to whether or not they can go shopping or get coffee out etc etc

    One person seemed to think it was ok to meet your friends if it was in the park or standing on the street.

    It’s also very different in the cities as your 5km area contains lots of stuff and you’ll get people out and about doing all sorts.

    I’d have a lot of concern that the government is addressing a bubble of media and those of us who are very engaged with this topic online.

    A lot of people aren’t as clear about it as we might believe based on dipping into a thread like this.

    I really think the also need to use emergency SMS broadcast alerts. They’re probably far more likely to get through to people than expecting them to have all turned into certain tv and radio shows.

    Instead of supervalu leaflets the postperson should be dropping updated covid leaflets on current guidelines.
    The averge dog on the street doesnt keep abreast with the latest HSPC data or DR Phil Nolans graphs.

    SMS alerts too would be a no brainer


  • #5904
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,178 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    Paul Reid on RTE radio 1, surge ICU capacity is 313. 28 available adult beds left.


  • #5905
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 8,647 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    seamus wrote: »
    A net increase of 152 seems very unlikely at this point. We might exceed 1900 if we're unlucky

    I'l quote from a HSE e-mail from the CCO.

    "Whilst the vaccine is being rolled out this is not a solution that in the short term will address this
    surge. It is anticipated that we will have over 2,000 in-patients and more than 220 critical care
    patients with COVID-19 by next Monday and that we will see further increases beyond then. This is
    considerably more than in the first peak and will require staff re-deployment to maintain separated
    pathways and support critical care surge. The ongoing impact of healthcare related Covid 19
    outbreaks will also significantly impact on the flow of patients through the acute and post-acute care
    health system."

    This was sent Wednesday morning.


  • #5906
    SuperRabbit
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 698 ✭✭✭SuperRabbit


    Probes wrote: »
    The main problem for me in all this is that much of the time we are asking individuals to take care of society when we all know that not all individuals will comply. This disease needs a concerted societal response which sticks in the craw of anyone remotely right wing or libertarian. That's why I think we are all a bit doomed to have the same circumstance play out over and over, the short history of the virus has shown that intense restrictions to eliminate the virus allow for more freedom most of the time, but no one wants to live with restrictions like they have in China when things go pear shaped.

    You can be right wing and collectivistic, there's no correlation between individualism and right v left. Unless you are in the trump cult, which happens to be right wing but could have been left or up or down or anything. If anything the left tends to be actually more individualistic than the right

    Ireland used to be one of the most collectivistic countries in Europe, it was something that set us apart culturally from the British, who were one of the most Individualistic cultures.. what happened to us? https://www.hofstede-insights.com/product/compare-countries/


  • #5907
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    I'l quote from a HSE e-mail from the CCO.

    "Whilst the vaccine is being rolled out this is not a solution that in the short term will address this
    surge. It is anticipated that we will have over 2,000 in-patients and more than 220 critical care
    patients with COVID-19 by next Monday and that we will see further increases beyond then. This is
    considerably more than in the first peak and will require staff re-deployment to maintain separated
    pathways and support critical care surge. The ongoing impact of healthcare related Covid 19
    outbreaks will also significantly impact on the flow of patients through the acute and post-acute care
    health system."

    This was sent Wednesday morning.
    Things change pretty rapidly. Wednesday may as well have been a month ago in the current circumstances.


  • #5908
    SuperRabbit
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 698 ✭✭✭SuperRabbit


    DraftDodger wrote: »
    At least people had a great Xmas though.

    That's all that matters or something.

    Remember that doctor on the news that said we should postpone Christmas a few months and everyone could meet up with their family then, once the vulnerable were vaccinated. IMAGINE IF WE HAD DONE THAT. Maybe we wouldn't be locked down till the end of March then. It's harder to keep a bonfire under control than wildfire.

    Varadkar yesterday was like "we shouldn't have followed NPHET advice" (paraphrasing) dude you did in my eye, they never told you to reopen restaurants and wet pubs, and also they wanted us to lockdown sooner and keep numbers lower to begin with. You can't spend all this time saying to us "we take a lot more things into account than NPHET advice, that's why we don't follow it" and then suddenly say "level 3 was a mistake, shoudln't have followed their advice" as if you hadn't ignored their advice whenever it didn't suit

    ah shudda coulda woulda... but it's so frustrating to be in this place now when we had so much information available to us, unlike last March. i could just give out about it for years


  • #5909
    Datacore
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 178 ✭✭Datacore


    I wouldn’t conflate Irish and American culture and particularly not politics.

    We are far, far more into big society here. That’s extremely obvious if you listen to any debate. There’ll be uproar here about lack of public services or low social welfare payments or anyone suggesting privatising state services. In the USA that’s usually the opposite.

    We also don’t have a two party system, one of which is deep into conspiracy theories, COVID and climate change denial and is supporting a wanna be strongman dictator. Nor would half our population and media think that was acceptable or normal.

    We import the odd talking point and you’ve a small fringe who are buried in US politics online. They tend to emerge as the anti mask protesters and to be fair, by comparison to many places that has been small here.

    I find Irish people tend to click into moving as a herd though. Prior to Christmas there were very good levels of control of the virus as most people were behaving extremely sensibly.

    The wheels fell or over Christmas because of a cultural fixation on the Xmas festival atmosphere and because of extremely weak communication.

    As soon as people felt it was ok to go shopping and let their hair down there was general acceptance that was fine and it was driven by everyone having a wonderful time, businesses understandably trying to make hay while the sun shone and a false sense of self assurance that we had it all under control and were being very sensible. We had saved Christmas!

    It was paralleled in Britain and I think that played into reinforcement of a very confused message and dangerous narrative that we could somehow save brownie points by being sensible before Christmas and if we just opened up for and went mad for a few days we could somehow dial it all back with a tight lockdown after Xmas and it would be fine.

    Most people do not have a natural feel for what exponential growth is. Even months on we are still struggling (around the world ) with the concept that a slow moving, stable situation can suddenly explode with relatively small changes in behaviour.

    We’re now dealing with a huge spike that has momentum that’s much harder to control than when it was low and manageable.


  • #5910
    Arduach
    Closed Accounts Posts: 618 ✭✭✭Arduach


    seamus wrote: »
    Things change pretty rapidly. Wednesday may as well have been a month ago in the current circumstances.

    And today will be as far away come Monday making today's guestimates redundant. We just don't know how many leave hospital when, making a number increase in hospital look artificially high or low. The figures won't go down in a hurry with a continued base of 3k cases a day.


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  • #5911
    Happydays2020
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    Funsterdelux wrote: »
    Instead of supervalu leaflets the postperson should be dropping updated covid leaflets on current guidelines.
    The averge dog on the street doesnt keep abreast with the latest HSPC data or DR Phil Nolans graphs.

    SMS alerts too would be a no brainer

    SMS alerts should be utilised now. Simple, effective.


This discussion has been closed.
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