2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

14-01-2021 10:02PM

Idbatterim wrote: »

this is the thing, properly run countries here have proper taxation system etc. Governments there maybe somewhat populist, here they are UBER populist, they wont touch the likes of a meaningful property tax, that might encourage downsizing etc, its a political handgrendade, none of them will touch it. Not having a meaninful property tax is a joke, but in irelands case its such a token gesture, I think it should be massively hiked or just scrap it, if its going to be left at current rate (of course if its scrapped, its very very difficult to reinstate)...

My personal preference would be a council tax like in the uk, applies to all adults in house, no exemptions, exceptions. Again wouldnt be touched here, as it would be fair in my opinion, but not fair in the governments eyes, bending over backwards for those that will never vote for them... did i mention the "vulnerable"?

Property tax should never have come in, but now that it's here, it shouldn't be getting dangled over people's heads that they're possibly going to be moved into higher bands.

Besides, individual councils have a 15% leeway with it anyway, so they can increase it if they wish on a local level (which I also disagree with).

Personally, although I can understand the benefit of property tax for the government (a reliable, stable tax income) it shouldn't be charged if the homeowners turn to pensionable age. Also, the difference in rates is too sizeable (especially from the lowest to second lowest rate - jumps up far too much).

There are many issues with it, and I genuinely don't believe it should exist in the way that it does. It also is unfair that people in social housing don't have to pay it - gives the clear impression that (again) the workers are propping up the unemployables.

Timing belt · 14-01-2021 10:03PM

awec wrote: »

If the investor leaves they can't take the property with them.

But you do have to take a lot of SF proposals with a pinch of salt. If they ever got into power, it is incredibly unlikely they would do everything they say.

they will not invest in new properties if regulation becomes a burden and the a unstable untested political environment.... The spread on Irish CDS would go through the roof on the night of the election.

PropQueries · 14-01-2021 10:06PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Property tax should never have come in, but now that it's here, it shouldn't be getting dangled over people's heads that they're possibly going to be moved into higher bands.

Besides, individual councils have a 15% leeway with it anyway, so they can increase it if they wish on a local level (which I also disagree with).

Personally, although I can understand the benefit of property tax for the government (a reliable, stable tax income) it shouldn't be charged if the homeowners turn to pensionable age. Also, the difference in rates is too sizeable (especially from the lowest to second lowest rate - jumps up far too much).

There are many issues with it, and I genuinely don't believe it should exist in the way that it does. It also is unfair that people in social housing don't have to pay it - gives the clear impression that (again) the workers are propping up the unemployables.

I don’t think property taxes will make any difference until DCC explains why it costs them in excess of €200k more per unit to build houses than SDCC (literally just down the road) can build them at.

Timing belt · 14-01-2021 10:07PM

PropQueries wrote: »

I don’t think 700,000 bankers left London because of Brexit. And they didn’t come here if they did.

But the report clearly states it’s the hospitality workers moving back home because of coronavirus. Which is why I’m wondering if something similar is happening in Dublin that’s not yet showing up in the official government reports as they’re generally 6 months or more behind the curve while they collate the data.

Besides employees working remotely from the beach at the start there has been no reports....

I assume it would work both ways they would return home and we would see a increase in the Irish returning

PropQueries · 14-01-2021 10:15PM

Timing belt wrote: »

Besides employees working remotely from the beach at the start there has been no reports....

I assume it would work both ways they would return home and we would see a increase in the Irish returning

There’s so much going on that’s most likely severely impacting the property market that appears to be not noticed due to covid.

For example, pre-covid, there were c. 32,000 international students studying in Ireland.

I assume many won’t be coming back in such numbers for the 2021/2022 academic year either so what are all those empty rooms doing right now?

Another example would be in relation to many cash in hand workers who wouldn’t have been entitled to PUP, have they gone home freeing up their rooms?

There would/ should appear to be plenty of spare capacity in the accommodation sector right now, so why isn’t it showing up in the data?

Timing belt · 14-01-2021 10:26PM

PropQueries wrote: »

There’s so much going on that’s most likely severely impacting the property market that appears to be not noticed due to covid.

For example, pre-covid, there were c. 32,000 international students studying in Ireland.

I assume many won’t be coming back in such numbers for the 2021/2022 academic year either so what are all those empty rooms doing right now?

Another example would be in relation to many cash in hand workers who wouldn’t have been entitled to PUP, have they gone home freeing up their rooms?

There would/ should appear to be plenty of spare capacity in the accommodation sector right now, so why isn’t it showing up in the data?

They are vacant because of RPZ's... if the regulation was not there rents would have dropped and if demand picked up they would rise again but because or RPZ's it makes more sense to leave vacant for a year or two or you could be waiting 10 years to get back to your previous rent.

hometruths · 14-01-2021 10:28PM

Timing belt wrote: »

They are vacant because of RPZ's... if the regulation was not there rents would have dropped and if demand picked up they would rise again but because or RPZ's it makes more sense to leave vacant for a year or two or you could be waiting 10 years to get back to your previous rent.

Now we're getting somewhere.

PropQueries · 14-01-2021 10:31PM

Timing belt wrote: »

They are vacant because of RPZ's... if the regulation was not there rents would have dropped and if demand picked up they would rise again but because or RPZ's it makes more sense to leave vacant for a year or two or you could be waiting 10 years to get back to your previous rent.

Good point. So there’s probably significantly more vacant properties than being advertised with the landlords hoping it’s back to normal next year.

I hope those same investors also understand that a minimum of an extra c. 40,000 new build homes will have also entered supply in the interim (new builds for 2020 and 2021 combined) and maybe another c. 20,000 to 30,000 potential probate sales re-entering supply.

That will be a lot of new homes looking for occupants from early 2022 IMO.

Timing belt · 14-01-2021 10:32PM

schmittel wrote: »

Now we're getting somewhere.

Is SF going to remove RPZ.... no not a chance.

Every time someone interferes with the property market they end up making 2 or more new issues.

fliball123 · 14-01-2021 10:33PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Good point. So there’s probably significantly more vacant properties than being advertised with the landlords hoping it’s back to normal next year.

I hope those same investors also understand that a minimum of an extra c. 40,000 new build homes will have also entered supply in the interim (new builds for 2020 and 2021 combined) and maybe another c. 20,000 to 30,000 potential probate sales re-entering supply.

That will be a lot of new homes looking for occupants from early 2022 IMO.

You keep talking about probate sales most of which take years and you absolutely zero evidence of numbers. Also building for 2021 has not exactly got off to a great start a lot of building sites have shut down for the first month of the year. You are also going on the basis that our population will not grow once Covid is a thing of the past. Ireland's population has increased every year since 1961 last year is an anomaly due to covid and we have no figures for the population now in 2021

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_Republic_of_Ireland

Timing belt · 14-01-2021 10:37PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Good point. So there’s probably significantly more vacant properties than being advertised with the landlords hoping it’s back to normal next year.

I hope those same investors also understand that a minimum of an extra c. 40,000 new build homes will have also entered supply in the interim (new builds for 2020 and 2021 combined) and maybe another c. 20,000 to 30,000 potential probate sales re-entering supply.

That will be a lot of new homes looking for occupants from early 2022 IMO.

we won't have those no of new homes next year as construction got delayed this year so that will cushion any drop in immigration no's.

You are still on about your probate :eek::eek::eek::eek::eek:

They will still be buying all before them and outbidding the government and other institutional investors. There is a lot of money that can't find a home at the moment that is paying a good yield.... I think that even if there yield fell to 2.5% you would still see them coming to the party to play.

hometruths · 14-01-2021 10:42PM

Timing belt wrote: »

Is SF going to remove RPZ.... no not a chance.

Every time someone interferes with the property market they end up making 2 or more new issues.

I was more talking about progress acknowledging that there are vacant properties that are just sitting idle and empty and could be on the market immediately if desired.

I agree interference is causing issues. Principally it is artificially restricting supply.

PropQueries · 14-01-2021 10:42PM

fliball123 wrote: »

You keep talking about probate sales most of which take years and you absolutely zero evidence of. Also bulding for 2021 has not exactly got off to a great start a lot of building sites have shut down for the first month of the year. You are also going on the basis that our population will not grow once Covid is a thing of the past.

Well the IDA has already stated that new jobs in the multinational sector will be impacted by the inability to have site visits last year and this year. And that’s before any impact of the OECD tax reforms becomes clear.

The tourism industry will take a few years to return to normal so they won’t be looking for many additional workers above 2019 levels for the foreseeable future.

Will international students return in such pre-covid numbers?

If probate sales take years, the ones from 5 years ago should be available to re-enter supply about now.

I think landlords holding out for the supposed pre-covid supply/demand mismatches to return to normal post-covid are making a very big mistake IMO

Timing belt · 14-01-2021 10:47PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Well the IDA has already stated that new jobs in the multinational sector will be impacted by the inability to have site visits last year and this year. And that’s before any impact of the OECD tax reforms becomes clear.

The tourism industry will take a few years to return to normal so they won’t be looking for many additional workers above 2019 levels for the foreseeable future.

Will international students return in such pre-covid numbers?

If probate sales take years, the ones from 5 years ago should be available to re-enter supply about now.

I think landlords holding out for the supposed pre-covid supply/demand mismatches to return to normal post-covid are making a very big mistake IMO

And if demand returns as strong or even 25% weaker than before the cash in..

PropQueries · 14-01-2021 10:47PM

Timing belt wrote: »

we won't have those no of new homes next year as construction got delayed this year so that will cushion any drop in immigration no's.

You are still on about your probate :eek::eek::eek::eek::eek:

They will still be buying all before them and outbidding the government and other institutional investors. There is a lot of money that can't find a home at the moment that is paying a good yield.... I think that even if there yield fell to 2.5% you would still see them coming to the party to play.

But are they getting that yield or are they saying that’s the yield they would get if they rented their vacant apartment?

How long before their investors start actually looking for this yield (in hard cash) that has been advertised to them?

If government tax revenues decline, will the state keep up its side of the bargain in relation to the rents they agreed pre-covid, long-term lease agreements, HAP etc.

Cyrus · 14-01-2021 10:47PM

PropQueries wrote: »

There’s so much going on that’s most likely severely impacting the property market that appears to be not noticed due to covid.

For example, pre-covid, there were c. 32,000 international students studying in Ireland.

I assume many won’t be coming back in such numbers for the 2021/2022 academic year either so what are all those empty rooms doing right now?

Another example would be in relation to many cash in hand workers who wouldn’t have been entitled to PUP, have they gone home freeing up their rooms?

There would/ should appear to be plenty of spare capacity in the accommodation sector right now, so why isn’t it showing up in the data?

When you say spare capacity what do you mean ? Accommodation available to rent and when you say it’s not showing up in the data what data do you mean ?

The lack of foreign students being temporary rather than permanent anyway.

PropQueries · 14-01-2021 10:52PM

Timing belt wrote: »

And if demand returns as strong or even 25% weaker than before the cash in..

Well the signals point to reduced demand over the next 5 years compared to the pre-covid projections i.e. less FDI jobs being created, less tourism jobs being created etc.

New build housing supply hasn’t fallen materially and won’t this year either.

fliball123 · 14-01-2021 10:53PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Well the IDA has already stated that new jobs in the multinational sector will be impacted by the inability to have site visits last year and this year. And that’s before any impact of the OECD tax reforms becomes clear.

The tourism industry will take a few years to return to normal so they won’t be looking for many additional workers above 2019 levels for the foreseeable future.

Will international students return in such pre-covid numbers?

If probate sales take years, the ones from 5 years ago should be available to re-enter supply about now.

I think landlords holding out for the supposed pre-covid supply/demand mismatches to return to normal post-covid are making a very big mistake IMO

Can you not see that new job creation and population figures and other areas of the economy like house building in Ireland the numbers are temporarily stuck just like every other country in the world are stuck due to covid. I dont know how to get this point through your head. COVID IS HERE BUT WILL NOT BE HERE FOREVER SO A LOT OF THINGS ARE ON HOLD. Your predictions are based on Covid being here forever and things never going back to the norm afterwards. The only way your numbers even come close to stacking up is if students dont come back here for college, people dont come here for work and tourists dont come here to visit once Covid is gone.

So what happened last year with regards to your supposed property savior of probate sales that started 6 years ago if your theory is correct we should of had a load of properties on the market last year and instead we had a huge decrease in properties for sale. Property availability is still decreasing day on day on myhome even this year with your 5 year probate sales due to hit the market. Good to have you back but your still making figures up for fun.

fliball123 · 14-01-2021 10:55PM

PropQueries wrote: »

But are they getting that yield or are they saying that’s the yield they would get if they rented their vacant apartment?

How long before their investors start actually looking for this yield (in hard cash) that has been advertised to them?

If government tax revenues decline, will the state keep up its side of the bargain in relation to the rents they agreed pre-covid, long-term lease agreements, HAP etc.

One thing that is for sure is that eaten breed is soon forgotten. You only have to look at when we cut things in the aftermath of 08 to see the amount of p1ss and vinegar that was aimed at the cuts. I cant see any government facing down the lefties if they try to cut any of this

fliball123 · 14-01-2021 10:57PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Well the signals point to reduced demand over the next 5 years compared to the pre-covid projections i.e. less FDI jobs being created, less tourism jobs being created etc.

New build housing supply hasn’t fallen materially and won’t this year either.

WE have yet to see the full figures for 2020 lets see if they hit the 21k mark and to lose a month maybe longer already and they year only started its not a great way to kick it off.

PropQueries · 14-01-2021 10:57PM

Cyrus wrote: »

When you say spare capacity what do you mean ? Accommodation available to rent and when you say it’s not showing up in the data what data do you mean ?

The lack of foreign students being temporary rather than permanent anyway.

And we’re still continuing to build all that student accommodation they couldn’t fill even pre-covid.

They will have their choice of student accommodation places to choose from should they decide to return in similar numbers to the pre-covid levels for the 2022/2023 academic year.

In relation to data, I suppose daft.ie is the only one to go by even though many now rent homes through Facebook etc. and the local councils snap them up before they even get a chance to be advertised, so it hasn’t been a meaningful report for many years.

fliball123 · 14-01-2021 10:57PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Well the signals point to reduced demand over the next 5 years compared to the pre-covid projections i.e. less FDI jobs being created, less tourism jobs being created etc.

New build housing supply hasn’t fallen materially and won’t this year either.

What signals are you sitting on your roof again with tin foil on your head

Timing belt · 14-01-2021 11:00PM

PropQueries wrote: »

But are they getting that yield or are they saying that’s the yield they would get if they rented their vacant apartment?

How long before their investors start actually looking for this yield (in hard cash) that has been advertised to them?

If government tax revenues decline, will the state keep up its side of the bargain in relation to the rents they agreed pre-covid, long-term lease agreements, HAP etc.

If you look at all the tax take will pobably come in around target if there is a fall in income tax (Which there was not in 2020) just look at the extra cash they are making on CGT at the moment...

Investors will make there money from the capital appreciation of the asset rising in value. If you took out a 20 year bond the yield is 0.1%..... the stock market has adjusted prices already for a low yield which you can see in the p/E ratios.. That means that for property the prices of the asset rises or the investor will accept a lower rent. Even taking into account the risk premium on property there is a lot of room for investors to play with.

hometruths · 14-01-2021 11:03PM

Timing belt wrote: »

And if demand returns as strong or even 25% weaker than before the cash in..

I can't help thinking the pent up supply is going to outpace the pent up demand.

Pent up demand affected negatively by rising unemployment and lower net migration. Positively affected by increased savings rate.

Can't think of anything that will negatively effect pent up supply. Likely to increase due to people thinking about bigger house/different lifestyle.

The increased savings rate - the only positive for pent up demand - is likely to have a dual impact. It drives the pent up supply because of large savings from homeowners who wish to trade up PPRs.

If people who have been sitting on second properties enjoying capital appreciation with one eye on their CGT exemption see supply coming on stream, they might figure they are better to sell sooner rather than later.

fliball123 · 14-01-2021 11:05PM

schmittel wrote: »

I can't help thinking the pent up supply is going to outpace the pent up demand.

Pent up demand affected negatively by rising unemployment and lower net migration. Positively affected by increased savings rate.

Can't think of anything that will negatively effect pent up supply. Likely to increase due to people thinking about bigger house/different lifestyle.

The increased savings rate - the only positive for pent up demand - is likely to have a dual impact. It drives the pent up supply because of large savings from homeowners who wish to trade up PPRs.

If people who have been sitting on second properties enjoying capital appreciation with one eye on their CGT exemption see supply coming on stream, they might figure they are better to sell sooner rather than later.

People going to a bigger house is this not a zero sum game you lose a property from the current available stock and then you gain one?

Your argument for CGT exemptions doe not seem to bearing fruit just keep an eye on the supply it is continuing to go down this year.

Also demand would of been kept at bay due to corona rrestrictions and people waiting to see if there is any blow back from Brexit

Timing belt · 14-01-2021 11:06PM

PropQueries wrote: »

And we’re still continuing to build all that student accommodation they couldn’t fill even pre-covid.

They will have their choice of student accommodation places to choose from should they decide to return in similar numbers to the pre-covid levels for the 2022/2023 academic year.

In relation to data, I suppose daft.ie is the only one to go by even though many now rent homes through Facebook etc. and the local councils snap them up before they even get a chance to be advertised, so it hasn’t been a meaningful report for many years.

That's a funny post seeing as you kept calling out no's were down on daft when it suited your argument :P:P:P

hometruths · 14-01-2021 11:08PM

fliball123 wrote: »

People going to a bigger house is this not a zero sum game you lose a property from the current available stock and then you gain one?

Your argument for CGT exemptions doe not seem to bearing fruit just keep an eye on the supply it is continuing to go down this year.

Not being a zero sum game is exactly why I said dual impact.

Well of course supply is still going down. We're in a lockdown. But as you so eloquently pointed out to Props, we won't be in lockdown for ever.

fliball123 · 14-01-2021 11:10PM

schmittel wrote: »

Not being a zero sum game is exactly why I said dual impact.

Well of course supply is still going down. We're in a lockdown. But as you so eloquently pointed out to Props, we won't be in lockdown for ever.

how is one person moving from one house to another not a zero sum game? 1 - 1 = 0

Timing belt · 14-01-2021 11:13PM

schmittel wrote: »

I can't help thinking the pent up supply is going to outpace the pent up demand.

Pent up demand affected negatively by rising unemployment and lower net migration. Positively affected by increased savings rate.

Can't think of anything that will negatively effect pent up supply. Likely to increase due to people thinking about bigger house/different lifestyle.

The increased savings rate - the only positive for pent up demand - is likely to have a dual impact. It drives the pent up supply because of large savings from homeowners who wish to trade up PPRs.

If people who have been sitting on second properties enjoying capital appreciation with one eye on their CGT exemption see supply coming on stream, they might figure they are better to sell sooner rather than later.

I agree.. The only caveat that I would put on demand is that if after all the QE and government spending we don't see a strong recovery with inflation... Then the markets will turn and we could very quickly go into a Depression for 3-4 years and that will kill any demand. Their are a lot of economic indicators flashing orange/red at the moment.

PropQueries · 14-01-2021 11:15PM

schmittel wrote: »

I can't help thinking the pent up supply is going to outpace the pent up demand.

Pent up demand affected negatively by rising unemployment and lower net migration. Positively affected by increased savings rate.

Can't think of anything that will negatively effect pent up supply. Likely to increase due to people thinking about bigger house/different lifestyle.

The increased savings rate - the only positive for pent up demand - is likely to have a dual impact. It drives the pent up supply because of large savings from homeowners who wish to trade up PPRs.

If people who have been sitting on second properties enjoying capital appreciation with one eye on their CGT exemption see supply coming on stream, they might figure they are better to sell sooner rather than later.

It’s a good point. The moment the small investors currently keeping their units vacant to beat the RPZ zones etc. in the hope of a rebound in 2022 see property prices falling, they will either sell or rent out immediately.

What’s amazing is that at the start of last year there was nothing about the sort of supposed housing shortage reported later in 2020.

All that means is that many pulled their properties due to the uncertainties and as another poster stated, these will most likely start flooding back into the market once this pandemic starts going away.

But, and here’s the clincher IMO. New build housing supply in 2020 hasn’t reduced by much compared to 2019. Potential probate sales are still there in the background with the beneficiaries wanting their inheritance sooner rather than later.

There’s many other bigger sources of supply I could mention but I don’t go into them at the moment in case it gives some here a panic attack ðŸ˜‚

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Comments

2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1