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Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

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  • #4682
    Datacore
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 178 ✭✭Datacore


    fits wrote: »
    Christmas seems like a much bigger deal here than anywhere else I can think of. The spending is incredible. Multiples of our European neighbours. It’s not as big a deal in US either.

    I love Christmas in Ireland but yes it was a recipe for disaster this year. It’s awfully sad

    It’s kinda split between Thanksgiving and Christmas in the USA, but they go as mental on shopping and the visiting and many states have a spike. They aren’t into bars and pubs tho.

    Irish figures at peak were up there with the top 3 US states, which include unusual locations you wouldn’t expect like Rhode Island. Remember the US figures are an average of all states and many of them are large, empty places in the middle.

    Portugal has had a spike to some degree too. A lot of focus in Portugal and Spain tends to be around visits to homes and stuff focused on 6th January, so watch them for a slightly later peak.


  • #4683
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    This chart represents how often the people from every country in the EU plus the UK did things like visit pubs, restaurants, museums, shopping centres etc.
    I couldn't find data on Cyprus.

    I think it's pretty damn conclusive from this what went wrong, but I'm sure others will manage to draw different conclusions so I'll present it without comment for now.

    539337.png

    Where is the source data on this Tony?


  • #4684
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    spookwoman wrote: »
    17 december was fun as well. TonyMaloney posted a google activity file called wearef***ed and got the same abuse.

    I thought I'd get away with it. Who knew that so many people read the file names?


  • #4685
    Vicxas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,622 ✭✭✭✭Vicxas


    Sierra Oscar wrote: »
    Johnson sounding the alarm bells regarding the new variant circulating in Brazil.

    https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1349379986449428483

    They said it could disrupt some treatments and vaccines but not neutralise them.

    Not sure what that means for the average Joe


  • #4686
    Amirani
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 12,554 Mod ✭✭✭✭Amirani


    griffdaddy wrote: »
    I wonder when things do open up again (whenever that may be) is there anything to be said for a more gradual easing of restrictions rather than opening everything from a single date? I'd imagine the stop/start nature of the opening and closing is driving demand when things finally do open. If restaurants/pubs opened, say Monday to Thursday for lunch and between 5 and 9 and/or with a third of capacity allowed and gradually increased over a number of weeks, would that be reflected in more manageable case numbers while satisfying some of the pent up demand? This might be problematic from a supply/staffing point of view though.

    This is the sort of thing that sounds reasonable now, but once things settle and it's proposed the restauranteurs and publicans jump all over it.

    Remember the proposals to close restaurants at 9 or 10pm? "Does the virus only come out after dark?", "No evidence pubs are causing spread after 9pm" and craic like this is all you'd hear.


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  • #4687
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Where is the source data on this Tony?

    Here raind
    https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/

    If you click on the button labelled 'Region CSVs' you can get CSV files for almost every country (and county within).
    I had to cobble this data together using the files from each country. If you just want to inspect my own working I'm happy to share the excel file.


  • #4688
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Sierra Oscar wrote: »
    Johnson sounding the alarm bells regarding the new variant circulating in Brazil.

    https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1349379986449428483

    The nutritionist claiming expertise on viral mutations again

    There is emerging evidence that the E484K mutation can enable the virus to escape some people’s immune responses........But Bloom and other scientists are hopeful that the mutations in the variants won’t substantially weaken the performance of vaccines. The shots tend to elicit whopping levels of neutralizing antibodies, so a small drop in their potency against the variants might not matter. Other arms of the immune response — T-cells, for example — that are triggered by vaccines might not be affected. “If I had to bet right now, I would say the vaccines are going to remain effective for the things that really count — keeping people from getting deathly ill,” says Luban.


  • #4689
    Datacore
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 178 ✭✭Datacore


    I suspect what we are going to see here is a short, sharp shock as it will probably reduce quite rapidly. It looks like the general public has shocked itself quite badly, never mind the government.

    There isn’t that much evidence of Ireland having a political debate about the reality of the situation, just that we had a slip up that we didn’t intend.

    The whole being “worst in world” status has been more about the fact that we had a very stable and low numbers situation followed by an astronomical spike. It’s also a label I think that really has caused a very sudden reaction here.

    Ireland doesn’t really work by hard enforcement or top down direction these days, so it’s about people coming on board and bringing these numbers down.

    The sense I get is it will be contained by the fact that we’re as shocked by it as anyone else is. It was a national misstep by a large % of the population rather than a trend.

    Unfortunately, it’s going to cause a lot of deaths though and those will run on for probably the next month, even if the figures of infections plummet you’re liking at a 3 to 4 week lag before the numbers in hospital shrink back.

    It’s an extremely costly misstep in human terms.


  • #4690
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    If anyone is still miring themselves in the "worst in the world" proclamations, it's worth sticking your head up every now and again to take a look around.

    The US recorded 4,470 deaths yesterday. This is the equivalent of 70 deaths here. Which is very much possible. However this has been a sustained issue in the US. They've had a sustained number of deaths which is our equivalent of 40 deaths every day since the start of December.

    The UK is not faring much better, running our equivalent of 30 deaths/day since the start of December, up to an average of 70/day since the start of this year.

    With any luck, we've had a short, sharp shock. While we're going to see some grim figures over the coming days, we should hopefully return to a better place and not get trapped in the ongoing hell that is plaguing other countries.


  • #4691
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,175 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    Sierra Oscar wrote: »
    Johnson sounding the alarm bells regarding the new variant circulating in Brazil.

    https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1349379986449428483

    Not another one, feck sake!


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  • #4692
    bb1234567
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    1560 deaths in UK today, cases are dropping fast though thankfully but deaths are scary high for the moment. Mad to see Boris focusing attention on preventing foreign travel bringing in variants, could the situation be any worse in the UK as it stands really.


  • #4693
    Probes
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 466 ✭✭Probes


    Sierra Oscar wrote: »
    Johnson sounding the alarm bells regarding the new variant circulating in Brazil.

    https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1349379986449428483

    He's so concerned about it that he won't do anything until it's too late.


  • #4694
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    seamus wrote: »
    If anyone is still miring themselves in the "worst in the world" proclamations, it's worth sticking your head up every now and again to take a look around.

    The US recorded 4,470 deaths yesterday. This is the equivalent of 70 deaths here. Which is very much possible. However this has been a sustained issue in the US. They've had a sustained number of deaths which is our equivalent of 40 deaths every day since the start of December.

    The UK is not faring much better, running our equivalent of 30 deaths/day since the start of December, up to an average of 70/day since the start of this year.

    With any luck, we've had a short, sharp shock. While we're going to see some grim figures over the coming days, we should hopefully return to a better place and not get trapped in the ongoing hell that is plaguing other countries.

    That's very true. Going from feck all cases to thousands of cases suddenly is scary as ****, but assuming you get a handle on things, it's a lot better to do it this way than see a gradual rise to a similar number.

    We briefly had the worst incidence rate in the world. We were never the worst country in the world. That distinction goes to whoever ends up with the worst death toll.

    We're just going to be a famous case-study in what not to do at Christmas during a pandemic


  • #4695
    Arghus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,189 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    What Username Guidelines wrote: »
    Within minutes of my last post my wife told me about a family where someone went out to different restaurants before Christmas over a few nights with a few different groups and brought it home. Her Mother is ventilated since last night. She passed it to her boyfriend and 3 year old, and then the mother on Christmas Day. Went to visit a friend on Christmas Eve and it’s spread through that family too. One of those in hospital, but recovering. The girl herself is absolutely fine, both physically and mentally, by mentally I mean her conscience is apparently absolutely clear as she “stayed within the rules” and sure the government said restaurants were safe.

    I absolutely despair, while at the same time am a little envious people could be that ignorant and anxiety free about it all. I think the thing I’m struggling most with, and will continue to struggle with after this is over, is the sheer amount of stupidity and selfishness there is out there.

    I just think back to what the thread was like on the run up to December. Every warning or note of caution from NPHET was met with a lot of derision - not from everybody of course - but the general mood was "stuff your advice", "why isn't he talking about vaccines, it's over" - a remedial and emotionally immature level of understanding and reasoning about what the facts of the situation were.

    When Gabriel Scally said people should think about whether it's worth risking the health of their vulnerable family members over Christmas, his words were pounced upon. He was only calling a spade a spade.

    There's a lot of stupid and selfish people out there, and some who aren't but just chose to be wilfully ignorant.


  • #4696
    Datacore
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 178 ✭✭Datacore


    I think though we also need to be aware that we don’t exist in a national vacuum and we speak English. So a lot of the stuff being absorbed here is the same stuff that’s being absorbed in the USA and U.K. online.

    We are definitely not lost in the political denial stuff the USA is, but we still have an element of absorbing a lot of misinformation, more so around the notions that “ah it’s all a bit over hyped.”

    There’s one other issue I would bring up on the communication side: the government is over reliant on the traditional media to get messages out. There’s an assumption everyone’s aware of what’s going on on the Late Late or Virgin Media News or tunes regularly to local radio. Most of us do, but a sizeable minority don’t.

    For example, I know people who didn’t know that Ireland’s in a level 5 lockdown or about the 5km limits because they don’t listen to the radio, watch broadcast tv or read newspapers.

    The only way you’ll reach those people would be by sending emergency text alerts. I can’t see any other way you’ll info to them.

    I also would like to know what efforts the government is making with communication in languages like Polish. Eg the they bought advertising space in Polish language media that’s consumed here?

    Use of outdoor advertising signs, the electronic gantry signs on the motorways and around Dublin & Cork etc could be more effective.

    Using mobile road side signage elsewhere might be useful too.

    There’s some of it but not enough simple messages like “Level 5 - Stay within 5km of home.”

    I would ask the mobile operators to facilitate (at no charge - they could easily solve this) a weekly SMS alert about current levels in each area or nationally and of any dramatic changes. It should be part of an emergency alert system.


  • #4697
    JP Liz V1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 91,178 ✭✭✭✭JP Liz V1


    Stephen Donnelly says more than half of new COVID19 infections are linked to the UK variant
    https://forumofgames.com/




  • #4698
    What Username Guidelines
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    Arghus wrote: »
    I just think back to what the thread was like on the run up to December. Every warning or note of caution from NPHET was met with a lot of derision - not from everybody of course - but the general mood was "stuff your advice", "why isn't he talking about vaccines, it's over" - a remedial and emotionally immature level of understanding and reasoning about what the facts of the situation were.

    When Gabriel Scally said people should think about whether it's worth risking the health of their vulnerable family members over Christmas, his words were pounced upon. He was only calling a spade a spade.

    There's a lot of stupid and selfish people out there, and some who aren't but just chose to be wilfully ignorant.

    Also, those who were raising flags to the seriousness on here were not only called doom-mongers, but also told they were hoping the numbers would rise, enjoying it even, just so they could say "I told you so".

    I've become absolutely fascinated with how differently people deal with bad news, grim outlooks, and a crisis like this.


  • #4699
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    Datacore wrote: »
    I think though we also need to be aware that we don’t exist in a national vacuum and we speak English. So a lot of the stuff being absorbed here is the same stuff that’s being absorbed in the USA and U.K. online.

    We are definitely not lost in the political denial stuff the USA is, but we still have an element of absorbing a lot of misinformation, more so around the notions that “ah it’s all a bit over hyped.”

    There’s one other issue I would bring up on the communication side: the government is over reliant on the traditional media to get messages out. There’s an assumption everyone’s aware of what’s going on on the Late Late or Virgin Media News or tunes regularly to local radio. Most of us do, but a sizeable minority don’t.

    For example, I know people who didn’t know that Ireland’s in a level 5 lockdown or about the 5km limits because they don’t listen to the radio, watch broadcast tv or read newspapers.

    The only way you’ll reach those people would be by sending emergency text alerts. I can’t see any other way you’ll info to them.

    I also would like to know what efforts the government is making with communication in languages like Polish. Eg the they bought advertising space in Polish language media that’s consumed here?

    Use of outdoor advertising signs, the electronic gantry signs on the motorways and around Dublin & Cork etc could be more effective.

    Using mobile road side signage elsewhere might be useful too.

    There’s some of it but not enough simple messages like “Level 5 - Stay within 5km of home.”

    I would ask the mobile operators to facilitate (at no charge - they could easily solve this) a weekly SMS alert about current levels in each area or nationally and of any dramatic changes. It should be part of an emergency alert system.

    I would also add that they seem to think the whole population is on twitter. Probably less than 20% is, but they spend a significant amount of time on it. If these comms are official, they should have to mirror these comms on at least Govt. websites.


  • #4700
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    What Username Guidelines wrote: »
    Within minutes of my last post my wife told me about a family where someone went out to different restaurants before Christmas over a few nights with a few different groups and brought it home. Her Mother is ventilated since last night. She passed it to her boyfriend and 3 year old, and then the mother on Christmas Day. Went to visit a friend on Christmas Eve and it’s spread through that family too. One of those in hospital, but recovering. The girl herself is absolutely fine, both physically and mentally, by mentally I mean her conscience is apparently absolutely clear as she “stayed within the rules” and sure the government said restaurants were safe.

    I absolutely despair, while at the same time am a little envious people could be that ignorant and anxiety free about it all. I think the thing I’m struggling most with, and will continue to struggle with after this is over, is the sheer amount of stupidity and selfishness there is out there.

    Another one who doesn't grasp the concept of personal responsibility. It is her fault and she should be called on her bulls!t. I get some people just don't understand it but she clearly does but is hiding behind the government, who hide behind NPHET when it suits them and throw them under the bus when it doesn't.

    If that happened in my family, I'd literally never speak to them again.

    I know some people contract it through no fault of their own, that's different.


  • #4701
    DraftDodger
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 284 ✭✭DraftDodger


    Sierra Oscar wrote: »
    Johnson sounding the alarm bells regarding the new variant circulating in Brazil.

    https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1349379986449428483

    Not good at all.


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  • #4702
    ShooterSF
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,824 ✭✭✭ShooterSF


    Datacore wrote: »
    I would ask the mobile operators to facilitate (at no charge - they could easily solve this) a weekly SMS alert about current levels in each area or nationally and of any dramatic changes. It should be part of an emergency alert system.

    Oh could you imagine the outrage though?! "I didn't opt into this" etc.

    On the numbers I wonder if in some freakish way we're lucky it was such a huge jump (obviously luckier would have been no increase) so as not to suffer the frog in the water scenario as the temp slowly increases and the population just accept it. We seem to have been properly shocked into taking precautions again.


  • #4703
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    seamus wrote: »
    If anyone is still miring themselves in the "worst in the world" proclamations, it's worth sticking your head up every now and again to take a look around.

    The US recorded 4,470 deaths yesterday. This is the equivalent of 70 deaths here. Which is very much possible. However this has been a sustained issue in the US. They've had a sustained number of deaths which is our equivalent of 40 deaths every day since the start of December.

    The UK is not faring much better, running our equivalent of 30 deaths/day since the start of December, up to an average of 70/day since the start of this year.

    With any luck, we've had a short, sharp shock. While we're going to see some grim figures over the coming days, we should hopefully return to a better place and not get trapped in the ongoing hell that is plaguing other countries.


    UK is much worse on the deaths front. Luckily there is no onus on anybody to report a death for a significant period so it could be high or it could be low we don't know. I've heard reports of notifications on RIP.ie being significantly higher lately.

    edit: just saw merlin reference the same RIP tweet I saw.

    https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1349390222669328386?s=20


  • #4704
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    ShooterSF wrote: »
    Oh could you imagine the outrage though?! "I didn't opt into this" etc.

    On the numbers I wonder if in some freakish way we're lucky it was such a huge jump (obviously luckier would have been no increase) so as not to suffer the frog in the water scenario as the temp slowly increases and the population just accept it. We seem to have been properly shocked into taking precautions again.

    Yeah, we mostly altered our behaviour again.

    However a large number of people seem to have gone shopping in the post-Christmas sales. Not a huge amount. We look about average for the EU. However it coincided with what was almost certainly the actual peak of the virus.

    If you were in one of those large Dublin shopping centres that can hold 5,000+ during this time, then you were sure to have been rubbing shoulders with numerous infected people. Who knows if this could lead to another rise in cases. Would be due about now.

    539356.png


  • #4705
    martingriff
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,362 ✭✭✭✭martingriff


    Just watching the news you would think the head of the INMO would wear her mask correctly if she was going to


  • #4706
    martingriff
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,362 ✭✭✭✭martingriff


    Cork care homes trying to jump the queue good on the mail to say cut it out


  • #4707
    Arduach
    Closed Accounts Posts: 618 ✭✭✭Arduach


    A lot of apprehension when you refresh the page this evening re. deaths


  • #4708
    Lawrence Quick Lumber
    Posts: 0 ✭ Lawrence Quick Lumber


    Fair share of entitled geebags out there trying to skip the vaccine queue.


  • #4709
    Datacore
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 178 ✭✭Datacore


    podgeandrodge wrote: »
    I would also add that they seem to think the whole population is on twitter. Probably less than 20% is, but they spend a significant amount of time on it. If these comms are official, they should have to mirror these comms on at least Govt. websites.

    I think to a degree that’s because journalists and many of those who are prolific online and also politicians are active on Twitter, so it can be useful from the point of view of getting information out there.

    I agree though they need to be a lot clearer on government websites. I find the HSE sites are often a confusing mess (perhaps reflective of the organisation itself?). When you go looking for information it’s often hard to find or buried in hard to read documents full of jargon.

    Then you’ve confusing duplication of the same information on the Dept of Health sites and you’re being referred to Gov.ie for other stuff

    There should be one state site like perhaps COVID.ie that is a well organised portal to everything, with super clear information.

    Vital messages like change of level should be just mass texted to every active mobile phone. It’s simple to do and if messages are kept to at most a couple per month nobody is going to be annoyed by it. However, if you go beyond that you’ll find people will be.

    Also when we do move down levels, some websites that people could refer people to would be useful. You’re going to get people eventually returning to say organising outdoor exercise classes, sports, outdoor art etc etc or whatever in a few months time when things have hopefully improved and it would be very useful if they could just say : visit covid.ie and familiarise yourself with the rules and guidelines.

    I just think they’re making a lot of obsolete assumptions about people all sitting at home tuned into Live Line on Radio 1.

    Also perhaps take out ads on services people they’re missing actually use: Spotify, various podcast apps, YouTube, Instagram etc etc etc - in many cases they may actually be relatively cheap too. They’re not reaching the a certain cohort and just intensifying messages on traditional platforms like radio will just raise the alertness level of people who are already probably extremely alert.


  • #4710
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Simone Hollow Tumor wrote: »
    Fair share of entitled geebags out there trying to skip the vaccine queue.
    It's pretty pointless at present as restrictions are not going to change for a good while


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  • #4711
    the corpo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,813 ✭✭✭the corpo


    63 additional deaths confirmed.

    3,569 new cases.


This discussion has been closed.
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