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Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

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Comments

  • #4082
    spookwoman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,059 ✭✭✭✭spookwoman


    HSE operations report for today. Did it up early

    12-01-2021-p1-beds.jpg
    12-01-2021-p2-beds.jpg
    12-01-2021-p3-beds.jpg
    12-01-2021-p4-beds.jpg


  • #4083
    wheresthebeef
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 887 ✭✭✭wheresthebeef


    What Username Guidelines wrote: »
    I haven’t been following treatments as closely, but one thing I find curious is the lack of panic of ventilators. In March last year it was a global panic to stockpile ventilators, though it seems now that a hesitancy to get a patient onto a ventilator is in fact helping people.

    In terms of deaths being lower, in wave 1 the nursing homes were hit quite badly. They’re better protected now with staff training, better step-down care, visitor limitations, etc. It’s difficult to compare reported hospital figures to deaths as unfortunately a lot of nursing home residents didn’t make it to hospitals or, if they did, may have deemed unfit for ICU.

    There was a lot unknown in Wave 1. Firstly the disease was assumed to be an Acute Respiratory Distress Sydrome (ARDS) almost exclusively. I think we now know that it’s a combination of respiratory, vascular and neurological. Still scary but different. There certainly are a number of treatment options now to reduce the likelihood of needing a ventilator or ending up in ICU at all. Dialysis for kidney failure also became a significant issue. This means there is a much more diverse set of presentations amongst these critical patients and the actual number of ventilator machines is less of an issue. The limiting factor now is the very specialised staff needed to care for critically ill people.


  • #4084
    Purple Mountain
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,695 ✭✭✭✭Purple Mountain


    Jinglejangle69 wrote: »
    People panicking here.

    Seriously relax, we will be fine and the hospitals will cope.

    The sheer fear in people by the media is bizarre.

    As a species we have faced and overcome events a 100 times worst than this.

    The hospitals will be OK.

    I assume you dont work in one, or indeed anyone who thanked your post.

    To thine own self be true



  • #4085
    frank8211
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 306 ✭✭frank8211


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    Yes

    In the UK school never stopped for those children during any lockdown

    and now see the mess they are in in uk


  • #4086
    Turtwig
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,578 ✭✭✭✭Turtwig


    Jinglejangle69 wrote: »
    People panicking here.

    Seriously relax, we will be fine and the hospitals will cope.

    The sheer fear in people by the media is bizarre.

    As a species we have faced and overcome events a 100 times worst than this.

    The hospitals will be OK.

    In most people's lifetime we've never experienced anything like it. The hospitals will exist but they've already curtailed their non covid care and surgical procedures - that is not coping

    Also fear? None here. Just a recognition of a really grim situation. Some frustration I guess because it was largely avoidable but posts like yours show just how much people want to invent their own reality for comfort.

    The hospitals are not ok. What's happening to them should not in anyway be considered OK. But you are right eventually they will be OK.


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  • #4087
    Richard Hillman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,033 ✭✭✭✭Richard Hillman


    Spanish Eyes wrote: »
    Christmas in July sounds like a plan. The mid Winter is not working at all is it?

    Yeah, I'm all in. That little ****ty weekend after Wimbledon ends and there's nothing much else on. I'm not too keen on Christmas Dinner anyway, but BBQ Turkey sounds like an absolute treat.


  • #4088
    JJayoo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,810 ✭✭✭JJayoo


    Jinglejangle69 wrote: »
    People panicking here.

    Seriously relax, we will be fine and the hospitals will cope.

    The sheer fear in people by the media is bizarre.

    As a species we have faced and overcome events a 100 times worst than this.

    The hospitals will be OK.

    Ignorance is bliss


  • #4089
    MrMusician18
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,127 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    Turtwig wrote: »
    Can't see that happening though. Once hospitalisations start to drop to perceived acceptable levels and case numbers the same, there will be huge pressure on the government to open up again. Nothing in the government's past actions suggests they will change their approach especially now with the positive PR of vaccines. I expect a silly flurry to open everything up and shoot ourselves in the foot once again.

    I fully expect the talk of reopening to build again, with St. Patrick's day being the target date


  • #4090
    spookwoman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,059 ✭✭✭✭spookwoman


    Jinglejangle69 wrote: »
    People panicking here.

    Seriously relax, we will be fine and the hospitals will cope.

    The sheer fear in people by the media is bizarre.

    As a species we have faced and overcome events a 100 times worst than this.

    The hospitals will be OK.

    Please to tell us what events that were 100 times were than this?

    Waterford hospital has canceled all outpatient activity and elective procedures until at least 22 January.
    We don't have 24hr cardiac care, if someone has a heart attack in Waterford after 5 or at weekend we are shipped off to Cork University Hospital. You're kinda f*cked with the golden hour as it is, now add the fact that for 4 days running there has been 0 critical care beds available in Cork and they have the highest amount of covid patients. Yeah hospitals are managing fine.... my ar*e


  • #4091
    Datacore
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 178 ✭✭Datacore


    I think it's also worth bearing in mind that during previous events like this we didn't really have any dependency or expectation of high tech healthcare. So things like a lack of access to cancer care or complex diagnostics or other support services in 1918 was just not really an issue.

    Hospitals back then were bandaging up wounds and breaks and carrying out pretty basic surgeries, often with poor outcomes.

    If you had a serious cardiac issue, you likely would not have survived into your 40s. If you had a heart attack, you just died. What we would now regard as highly treatable cancers we often not even diagnosed, people died "of pains." Leukemias, multiple myeloma etc etc were often diagnosed as various anaemias and not treated or totally inappropriately treated. Many of the diseases we now treat and live with were fatal or debilitating.

    If you had a serious accident, you often just didn't survive. There was no ICU and the most an A&E could do was probably stitch and bandage.

    So to compare the removal of access to a modern 20st century healthcare system from a modern 21st century population and the overflowing of a 1918 hospital is frankly not even possible. They're both called hospitals but the comparison ends there.

    The impacts now are likely to be profound and potentially deadly for a lot of people who depend on those facilities or being able to get access to them quickly.

    Flooding the hospitals with COVID cases removes the safety net for a large % of the population and unfortunately that means people will have bad outcomes.


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  • #4092
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    CruelSummer wrote: »
    Mainstream media’s role in Ireland over Covid would make a very interesting study. I’ve posted on this many times before. If they stuck to more facts instead of worry metrics, Amárach polls, and the politics of it all, people might not have switched off.
    Do you agree or disagree that George Lee is supposed to be a Science / Environment reporter for RTE? He seems to have morphed into NPHET spokesperson instead, and to top it off - doesn’t even understand the data he’s spewing and constantly makes erroneous statements. I find this extremely irritating. Does he report on any other scientific news?
    Fergal Bowers is much more balanced.
    I didn’t anywhere in my post suggest it was the media’s fault or NPHET’s re Christmas. I’ve previously also posted re the perfect storm of conditions re Christmas surge:
    1. Lockdown for Spring - last to emerge from it in Europe.
    2. First into Lockdown in Europe in October - told Christmas could be ‘meaningful’. Cue people making all sorts of plans to get through the latest restrictions then, this lockdown with poor Communication from NPHET - aka Level 2-5 overnight and the Government questioning its rationale - had many people doubtful of its necessity. I say this as meeting people daily who would always pull together in a crisis - there were question marks from the public re Level 5 in Oct.
    3. Pressure cooker activities - people cooped up for weeks set free in December - frantically shopping, meeting people, getting in as much as possible. Some clearly completely losing the run of themselves, shebeens, house parties, big family gatherings, you name it.
    4. U.K. variant and increased transmissibility. What people got away with before re parties etc, before - they didn’t at Christmas as we’d a new arrival in town - Covid B 117 U.K. variant. This message from NPHET this evening was lost on me - they seem to be at pains to limit the new variant as the single major issue that’s changed despite even Prof Nolan’s forecasting models not predicting these numbers. It seems they’re more focused on figure pointing and reopening and it just seems bizarre. What is the intention of that? I also would be concerned about this moving forward - will NPHET want Level 5 indefinitely?


    Good post. You are certainly right with a lot of that.

    As for George Lee, he reads what put in front of him. Maybe he does over egg it a bit with his commentary. I tune out to be honest. Same goes for George hook.

    I don't know what NPHET could have done differently. They said this could get very bad very quickly. That's exactly what transpired.

    We are now the worst in the world in terms of incidence. The government coming out and publicly undermining them was surely one of the most irresponsible acts a government has done in the history of the state.

    We keep saying "personal responsibility" as if by repeating it people will practice it. While there are many who do take this seriously in their life in general. The reality is there's a sizeable minority in Ireland who never have had personal responsibility for their actions / situation and never will. With these people it's alway's someone else's fault. Normally they are tolerated because they fvck up their own life but in a pandemic they end up messing up the whole system. Why they are still tolerated I've no idea. I guess it's because we all know one.

    We also have too many cute whores who see it as their mission in life to game the system. We saw that here with the ready made excuses to tell a Garda if stopped. People flying via Belfast etc etc. It's clear people tried to have their cake and eat it. Plenty of people took the piss and are now moaning they are on the PUP or worse.

    Historians will not look kindly on this period. We have lurched from crisis to crisis. If the virus ends up mutating faster than we can roll out vaccines we'll in this for a lot longer than people want or expect.

    Looking at the outcomes (as that's what is really important).
    • We have the highest incidence in the world.
    • Our schools are closed.
    • Elective and non emergency care is closed.

    That can only be classed as monumental fail by government not NPHET. NPHET advise government decide. You cannot delegate responsibility. That's why they get paid the big bucks. There isn't a backbone between them. As other's have said they are destined to make the same mistakes.


  • #4093
    sjb25
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,416 ✭✭✭sjb25


    Jinglejangle69 wrote: »
    People panicking here.

    Seriously relax, we will be fine and the hospitals will cope.

    The sheer fear in people by the media is bizarre.

    As a species we have faced and overcome events a 100 times worst than this.

    The hospitals will be OK.

    ...


  • #4094
    Happydays2020
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    Purple Mountain wrote: »
    I assume you dont work in one, or indeed anyone who thanked your post.

    Maybe. I read it as a certain amount of optimism - hoping for the best. And indeed they are right that we have faced far greater challenges.

    We know there were bad policy and personal choices, the consequences of which we are now facing. We know the hospitals and importantly the people in them are facing a horrendous few weeks. But we also know that we will get to the other side of this. And I will certainly remember the role of the broader health services when RTÉ long forget and resume attacks on their pay.


  • #4095
    Datacore
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 178 ✭✭Datacore


    RTE attacks the health service pay? That's news to me! Honestly have never heard them do that.


  • #4096
    schmoo2k
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,389 ✭✭✭schmoo2k


    As of Jan 10, 2021, IRELAND remains in a Spreading state. The infection is very quickly increasing (R = 2.28). At this growth rate, new infections and deaths will double every 8 days. This outbreak is beyond containment, with 46,087 active cases, and requires mitigation. This is the 6th surge in infections, which started on the week of Dec 14, 2020. With 39,405 new cases and 84 new deaths, this is the worst week yet for cases and deaths during this surge. The Contagion Risk is extremely high at 99.2%. This is the likelihood of meeting an infected person during one hundred random encounters. It appears that the level of social distancing has decreased dramatically, resulting in higher levels of infection growth. IRELAND is currently on the HotSpot list due to rapid increase in cases. The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is estimated as 2.4%. This is consistent with the average CFR of 2.3%. Preliminary estimates suggest that 10% of the population may have been infected and are presumed immune. This may be enough to slightly suppress the spread of the virus. This preliminary estimation also implies an Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) of roughly 0.5%. The Early Warning Indicator at -2.98 implies that a significant increase in infection growth rate is imminent.
    - https://covid19.hpccsystems.com/


  • #4097
    Happydays2020
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    Datacore wrote: »
    RTE attacks the health service pay? That's news to me! Honestly have never heard them do that.


    https://www.inmo.ie/Article/PrintArticle/9100

    https://www.inmo.ie/Article/PrintArticle/9224


  • #4098
    prunudo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,114 ✭✭✭prunudo


    schmoo2k wrote: »
    - https://covid19.hpccsystems.com/

    How can they say we're beyond containment when we're in lockdown, businesses and schools are closed, house visits and social mixing isn't allowed. Besides, swab data and positivity is on a downward trend.
    Everything we are seeing is a result of the week leading up to Christmas and then knock on infections among family or close contacts. People greatly changed their behaviour after the day itself.


  • #4099
    Datacore
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 178 ✭✭Datacore


    That was from during the financial crisis back in the troika era around a decade ago. Every aspect of public spending at that time was being debated.

    Looking through RTE coverage recently it’s all been quite heavily highlighting the student nurses pay issue and not in a negative way.


  • #4100
    Datacore
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 178 ✭✭Datacore


    prunudo wrote: »
    How can they say we're beyond containment when we're in lockdown, businesses and schools are closed, house visits and social mixing isn't allowed. Besides, swab data and positivity is on a downward trend.

    Seems a bit extreme but it remains to be seen. If it’s genuinely beyond containment we are probably looking at a total disaster. It’s only a website though and it’s only looking at raw numbers.

    Let’s see where the trend goes over the next few days.


  • #4101
    Gruffalux
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Gruffalux


    schmoo2k wrote: »
    - https://covid19.hpccsystems.com/

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7698683/

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/mg.co.za/coronavirus-essentials/2021-01-11-ivermectin-is-not-a-miracle-drug/%3famp

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/12/first-its-kind-african-trial-tests-common-drugs-prevent-severe-covid-19

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.29.20222661v1
    India trial.

    Looking at the map in the last post's link one cannot help but notice the lower impact of Covid in Africa.
    At an earlier time I subscribed to the inadequate reporting thesis but now I think that we would hear if African ICUs on the wider continent were melting down.
    Younger population is given as a reason. Quite possibly a factor. Though other countries have young populations too like Palestine, Iraq, Afghanistan - the first 2 of those examples have not done overly well . Cross immunity from other coronaviruses due to more prevalent poor health. Very possible. Although other places in the world have lots of poor health and coronaviruses.

    Is it still a thought crime to even wonder about medications that have regular use in Africa due to endemic parasite problems?
    A recent Indian study linked above has looked at prophylactic ivermectin. Ooops. Did I say that word out loud! :)


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  • #4102
    WoollyRedHat
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,462 ✭✭✭✭WoollyRedHat


    Datacore wrote: »
    Seems a bit extreme but it remains to be seen. If it’s genuinely beyond containment we are probably looking at a total disaster. It’s only a website though and it’s only looking at raw numbers.

    Let’s see where the trend goes over the next few days.

    Beyond containment just means we are no longer in a position to detect early cases or establish who infected person has been in contact with in effective manner..


  • #4103
    Datacore
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 178 ✭✭Datacore


    It just seems extremely bad. I’m not even going to do any more walks after that. Just going to stay inside and not go out anymore.


  • #4104
    WoollyRedHat
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,462 ✭✭✭✭WoollyRedHat


    Datacore wrote: »
    It just seems extremely bad. I’m not even going to do any more walks after that. Just going to stay inside and not go out anymore.

    Oh yeah, it's definitely not good. See headlines suggesting people wear masks when outdoors again.


  • #4105
    Gruffalux
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Gruffalux


    Datacore wrote: »
    It just seems extremely bad. I’m not even going to do any more walks after that. Just going to stay inside and not go out anymore.

    That website's( human) just chews the data in the moment. The prognostications do not seem to take into account the nuances around the data. Its interesting as a snapshot in time. But we are definitely moving back towards containment due to recent actions. Go out. It's lovely outside.


  • #4106
    Worztron
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,894 ✭✭✭Worztron


    How big is the workforce in the ROI vs the number on the PUP?

    Mitch Hedberg: "Rice is great if you're really hungry and want to eat two thousand of something."



  • #4107
    Cork2021
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,436 ✭✭✭Cork2021


    Vaccine number 3 incoming

    https://twitter.com/ema_news/status/1348909884402786306?s=21


  • #4108
    prunudo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,114 ✭✭✭prunudo


    Datacore wrote: »
    It just seems extremely bad. I’m not even going to do any more walks after that. Just going to stay inside and not go out anymore.

    At the end of the day we can all make your own decisions but I wouldn't stop going out for a walk if its what you have being doing up till now. The reality is you had a greater chance of meeting an infected person over the last 2 weeks than you will in the next 2.


  • #4109
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Datacore wrote: »
    It just seems extremely bad. I’m not even going to do any more walks after that. Just going to stay inside and not go out anymore.
    For your mental and physical health I'd strongly encourage you to keep it up, even if you limit it. Sneak out very early or after dark if needs be.


  • #4110
    c68zapdsm5i1ru
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,709 ✭✭✭c68zapdsm5i1ru


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Good post. You are certainly right with a lot of that

    We are now the worst in the world in terms of incidence. The government coming out and publicly undermining them was surely one of the most irresponsible acts a government has done in the history of the state.

    We keep saying "personal responsibility" as if by repeating it people will practice it. While there are many who do take this seriously in their life in general. The reality is there's a sizeable minority in Ireland who never have had personal responsibility for their actions / situation and never will. With these people it's alway's someone else's fault. Normally they are tolerated because they fvck up their own life but in a pandemic they end up messing up the whole system. Why they are still tolerated I've no idea. I guess it's because we all know one.

    We also have too many cute whores who see it as their mission in life to game the system. We saw that here with the ready made excuses to tell a Garda if stopped. People flying via Belfast etc etc. It's clear people tried to have their cake and eat it. Plenty of people took the piss and are now moaning they are on the PUP or worse.

    Historians will not look kindly on this period. We have lurched from crisis to crisis. If the virus ends up mutating faster than we can roll out vaccines we'll in this for a lot longer than people want or expect..


    Exactly. It is the people who have caused this mess, and who are responsible for the deaths, business closures, illnesses and damage to our children's education we are now looking at. We're all human and most of us have probably slipped up occasionally, misinterpreted a guideline, momentarily forgotten to socially distance.

    But only some people wilfully carried on regardless, in the full knowledge of what they were doing. We saw it earlier on last Summer when people were on Boards delightedly telling us all that they were in their local pub and they stayed there for hours being served pint after pint. We've seen it in all the large gatherings for big birthdays, christenings and first holy communions. We've seen it in the employers bringing people back into work who could realistically work from home, the people who didn't bother to isolate after foreign travel, the restaurant owners who crammed as many people in as possible in the run up to Christmas, the people who partied and then mixed with several households over Christmas and the people who defied the ban on travel from the UK to Ireland and snuck in via Belfast.

    Anyonwme who behaved like that should be taking a long hard look at themselves.


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  • #4111
    ixoy
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 18,044 Mod ✭✭✭✭ixoy


    Henley Tangy User wrote: »
    Anyonwme who behaved like that should be taking a long hard look at themselves.
    Many of them won't though. The government said it was okay to meet people therefore they had to meet as many as possible...


This discussion has been closed.
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