Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

Bushmaster64 wrote: »

Point is we didn't lose our f*cking minds 3 years ago, why are we losing them now?

It's a more serious virus obviously.

Amirani wrote: »

I presume your 250-300 is Covid only?

We have 150+ non-Covid patients in ICU at the moment, where do they go?

Currently the surge private hospitals are taking non-covid patients.

Amirani wrote: »

There's only about 40 private ICU beds total, so maths still don't add up if you have 300 Covid patients and 150 non-Covid patients needing ICU?

Yeah, they aren't able to take them all ofc, but it makes sense to try and put the non-covid new patients there.

Talisman wrote: »

Leo Varadkar and Paul Reid both spoke last week about plans to move non-Covid ICU patients to the private hospitals. There hasn't been any announcement since about an agreement regarding this.

Paul Reid was speaking about this on RTÉ yesterday. Radio 1 at 1pm I think.

Wibbs wrote: »

I don't S, because I couldn't find any. This occurred to me way back in the summer one night(a glass of red, or two may have been involved ), but this is the very first time I've heard medical folks musing about it, and I've been looking and wondering why because it seems so bloody obvious. Back then I was looking at various bits of data from different regions and was puzzled by the wide variability in both transmission and severity of illness and it just didn't make sense.

EG take the common cold. If it's around in the population pretty much everyone exposed will get it and the symptoms are pretty much the same for everyone(unless you've existing sinus problems say) and it takes about the same time to clear the system.

While viral illnesses certainly have a range of severity of symptoms I couldn't find an example of one that was nearly as variable as covid. SARS or MERS weren't.

Yet here we have a virus; that some people, quite the number, don't contract it after close contact in households, including romantically linked couples. Whereas you have people who've been careful, followed the rules, stayed in as much as possible, yet still caught the thing. In the last few weeks I know of a few who have no idea where they might have contracted it, but they did. Yet a couple sharing the same bed and one doesn't? Eh.. wut?

Those that do return a positive can have no symptoms, whereas another the same age, background etc can get a really bad dose of it and some thankfully a minority can go on to die from it. This is the case even among the most vulnerable like the elderly. The old(and men) are more likely to die from any infection anyway, but you have outbreaks in care homes where again some are asymptomatic or very mild, some get worse and some die. It makes zero sense.

It does make sense if we're dealing with a partially immunised population. I did look at studies into how viruses spread in partially vaccinated populations, eg measles and it looks much more like how covid 19 acts. I'll see if I can drag them up for you.

There was a lot of talk of pre-existing immunity at the beginning, but because they made wild claims about the pandemic ending abruptly and within months, many were ignored..

I seem to remember when Italy had about 60,000 cases, some folk reckoned it was in fact about 5m total. Not sure how they reached that figure, but Italy are now at 2.2m confirmed cases (i.e. almost 40 times more) which means 200m Italians may have had it :rolleyes:

Ok, so those lads were incorrect. I know a few wackos like Ivor Cummins also based their theories on pre-existing immunity too, from recent-ish exposure to other more common (previously more common) coronaviruses. Now he's been proved wrong too - but to an extent that they reckon the lockdowns didnt work and the numbers fell due to hitting an immunity threshold.

BUT... I still do think you have something. I believe the numbers fall due to lockdowns, yet it is fascinating that some people get it and others don't, or that some get it very badly when fit, and others report little to no symptoms. There's been genetic theories after entire families have died in the US versus other families being fine (also with certain races faring better or worse).

At this stage though, how hasnt every single healthcare worker had it? They use PPE, yes, but still many contract it. It seems to spread almost untamed through hospitals and nursing homes, so there are plenty of people vulnerable to it. I would like to see a study on healthcare workers or known close contacts (i.e. sleeping in a bed with a positive case) that didnt catch it, to check for antibodies of other common coronaviruses, if that's even possible.

But it appears now there are only some clues as to susceptibility (age, pre-existing conditions, etc) rather than solid data to show who is and isn't at risk.

There have been quite a few studies into pre-existing immunity. I haven't looked at any in a while, but back during the summer I remember lots of them working from small datasets to make big claims, with many studies resulting in competing and contradictory findings

Little snowy old me wrote: »

Very sad. And of course it happened here. In fact I suspect some grandparents were bullied into allowing their sons and daughters bring the grandchildren around. We all know the types, the ones who dump their children with their grandparents at every opportunity. Spinning some rubbish about how upset darling Jack or Caitlin will be if they don't see granny and grandad at Christmas.

You got to wonder about the wisdom of that Super Valu ad now.

cameramonkey wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/covid-19-surge-due-to-increased-social-mixing-says-who-s-mike-ryan-1.4455748

Ryan says social mixing the reason for upsurge. Micky Martin will not like that after a conversation with Tony that Ryan totally debunks MM theory that it is the UK virus that is causing the problems. Micky trying to shift the blame to the UK virus and off his disastrous decisions, Ryan and Tony returning the serve.

This is not helping anyone. And does Mr Ryan have the complete data to categorically say this.

Wibbs wrote: »

However it doesn't explain the even more remarkable variation in severity and symptoms within a similar demographic.

Isn't that where the viral load comes into play?

Fajnzylber, J., Regan, J., Coxen, K. et al. SARS-CoV-2 viral load is associated with increased disease severity and mortality. Nat Commun 11, 5493 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19057-5

cameramonkey wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/covid-19-surge-due-to-increased-social-mixing-says-who-s-mike-ryan-1.4455748

Ryan says social mixing the reason for upsurge. Micky Martin will not like that after a conversation with Tony that Ryan totally debunks MM theory that it is the UK virus that is causing the problems. Micky trying to shift the blame to the UK virus and off his disastrous decisions, Ryan and Tony returning the serve.

I think he's probably right and we'll know for sure within a few weeks. The government will likely stick with the UK variant regardless.