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Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

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Comments

  • #3542
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Vicxas wrote: »
    My concern is they've not outlined when restrictions will be relaxed once the most vulnerable have been vaccinated.
    Case and hospital numbers will do that sooner. Level 5 might look a little less harsh in February sometime. If you consider that Groups 1-5 contain a lot of them, that's more like April. IMO Level 3 may come about then.


  • #3543
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Vicxas wrote: »
    My concern is they've not outlined when restrictions will be relaxed once the most vulnerable have been vaccinated.
    The criteria for tightening or loosening restrictions haven't changed. It all depends on the trajectory of infections and the likely impact of those on our hospital system.

    Once the vulnerable have been vaccinated, we would expect to see a sharp drop-off in deaths and ICU numbers, which will then inform us on what level of restrictions are tolerable.

    On current hospital numbers, I would hope to see good progress on discharges this week. Saturday & Sunday are always slow for discharges. Even a narrowing gap between admissions and discharges would be a positive.


  • #3544
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    quartz1 wrote: »
    Martin and Varadker on different radio stations rolling out the blame game against the Public and NPHET.

    An elected government mirrors it’s people. The Irish people never take responsibility for the state of its country, the government responds the exact same way. There is always somebody else to blame ;)


  • #3545
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,458 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1348577900522594307?s=19


  • #3546
    Beechwoodspark
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,046 ✭✭✭✭Beechwoodspark


    Varadkar sniggering and laughing when told the Irish 14 day rate is the highest in the world at the moment.

    There’s something not right with this guy, have always thought it


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  • #3547
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,449 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1348577900522594307?s=19

    Just to note they sampled 95 tests I believe he said and they're focusing on those with a recent travel history to the UK as per an interview last week.


  • #3548
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,458 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    Just to note they sampled 95 tests I believe he said and they're focusing on those with a recent travel history to the UK as per an interview last week.

    Eh, not a random sample then, I wonder why not.


  • #3549
    MD1990
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,740 ✭✭✭✭MD1990


    Beechwoodspark wrote: »
    Varadkar sniggering and laughing when told the Irish 14 day rate is the highest in the world at the moment.

    There’s something not right with this guy, have always thought it

    I think we will open schools next months at 1000-2000 cases a day.

    Will cause huge spread again.

    This goverment never learn from their mistakes.
    We are now the Covid capital of the world & perhaps the worst country in Europe to be living in now in terms of the chances of catching the virus.

    Varadkar is as bad as Boris Johnson


  • #3550
    CalamariFritti
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,309 ✭✭✭CalamariFritti


    So within a week or two the wild speculations about the 'new UK variant' being more infectious have become the accepted 'truth'. Its not suspected to be more contagious. Its now an undisputed line that you will find in the papers everywhere.

    When this first got a mention and the UK officials came out with those "70% more contagious" I looked at their line of argument and I concluded that they have no way of knowing that. As far as I remember that was more or less confirmed by our CMO.

    But there is no mention of that now. Did we simply gloss over the bit where scientific evidence is needed or is there actually any hard data behind it at this point? Did I miss something? Genuine question, its hard to keep up.


  • #3551
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,599 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    Eh, not a random sample then, I wonder why not.

    If they can only do a random sample it's not going to be large enough to give a reliable estimate of the % in the country so instead they do a biased sample for other reasons.

    I'm not sure what the other reasons are but I trust that they exist.


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  • #3552
    Probes
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 466 ✭✭Probes


    CalamariFritti wrote: »
    So within a week or two the wild speculations about the 'new UK variant' being more infectious have become the accepted 'truth'. Its not suspected to be more contagious. Its now an undisputed line that you will find in the papers everywhere.

    When this first got a mention and the UK officials came out with those "70% more contagious" I looked at their line of argument and I concluded that they have no way of knowing that. As far as I remember that was more or less confirmed by our CMO.

    But there is no mention of that now. Did we simply gloss over the bit where scientific evidence is needed or is there actually any hard data behind it at this point? Did I miss something? Genuine question, its hard to keep up.

    What's the evidence against it at this stage? Hasn't it pretty much taken over the entire UK?


  • #3553
    CalamariFritti
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,309 ✭✭✭CalamariFritti


    Probes wrote: »
    What's the evidence against it at this stage? Hasn't it pretty much taken over the entire UK?

    I'm not asking about evidence whether it exists or not. But people came out with "vastly more contagious" and they actually put a number to it.

    Sorry for being such a PITA but when I read a number I want to know how the number got there. I cant help it. Spent too many years working as an analyst.


  • #3554
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,458 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    CalamariFritti wrote: »
    I'm not asking about evidence whether it exists or not. But people came out with "vastly more contagious" and they actually put a number to it.

    Sorry for being such a PITA but when I read a number I want to know how the number got there. I cant help it. Spent too many years working as an analyst.

    I was initially thinking that it might have spread purely due to association with a certain age group or demographic, but it seems to be distributed across all age groups and regions.


  • #3555
    CalamariFritti
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,309 ✭✭✭CalamariFritti


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    I was initially thinking that it might have spread purely due to association with a certain age group or demographic, but it seems to be distributed across all age groups and regions.

    But still has nothing to do with more or less contagious?


  • #3556
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    CalamariFritti wrote: »
    But there is no mention of that now. Did we simply gloss over the bit where scientific evidence is needed or is there actually any hard data behind it at this point? Did I miss something? Genuine question, its hard to keep up.
    The data on its increased infectiousness is still unclear. We probably won't really know until it's all passed.

    The original suggestions of 70% now seem to have likely been worst-case estimates. Later data suggested somewhere around 50%, but the margin for error is large. It could be anything from 20% to 60%.

    It's been confounded by Xmas, basically. Any variant which is marginally more infectious will always eventually become dominant. But when you throw in a mass superspreader event, even a variant that's just 10% more infectious will explode and take over much more quickly.

    There's no way to examine the physical virus and determine how much more infectious it is. It's really only through experimentation and taking population data and putting it through statistical analyses that you can make anything approaching a different guess.

    And when you're analysing the general population, that number crunching becomes insanely complex with wide margins of error.


  • #3557
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,599 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    I was initially thinking that it might have spread purely due to association with a certain age group or demographic, but it seems to be distributed across all age groups and regions.

    I think theres scientific evidence that it's more infectious I saw something about it binding in a more efficient manner.

    The level of higher infectiousness is though population analysis.

    If there was a 1000 cases last week and 10000 of the normal covid and this week theres 2000 of the nre variant and 15000 of normal covid.

    Then normal covid grew by 50% and new variant grew by 100%. Therefore its 100% or 50% more infectious depending on who is presenting the data.


  • #3558
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    CalamariFritti wrote: »
    But still has nothing to do with more or less contagious?

    We are not sampling near the level required to check for variants or their evolution.

    It's more transmissible because it is displacing the other variants at a much greater rate.

    The other part of the evidence on where the number comes from PHE who mapped the variant and looked at how many people it got passed on to vs the old variant. There was a clear difference across all age groups and geographies in the UK.

    Logically if it passes onto more people than the old strain then it will be far more numerous than the old variant over time. Which is exactly what is happening.

    539071.jpeg


  • #3559
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    Eh, not a random sample then, I wonder why not.

    The variant will also show a negative on the PCR test for the S gene. This might be by proxy providing an estimate for the prevalence of the variant.


  • #3560
    DraftDodger
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 284 ✭✭DraftDodger


    Beechwoodspark wrote: »
    Varadkar sniggering and laughing when told the Irish 14 day rate is the highest in the world at the moment.

    There’s something not right with this guy, have always thought it

    Heard that. Why laugh at something so serious. Bizarre.


  • #3561
    bb1234567
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    Beechwoodspark wrote: »
    Varadkar sniggering and laughing when told the Irish 14 day rate is the highest in the world at the moment.

    There’s something not right with this guy, have always thought it

    Very put off by him in the last few months of the pandemic. Very two faced, completely changes his stance on it all when it suits his argument/beliefs


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  • #3562
    Probes
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 466 ✭✭Probes


    CalamariFritti wrote: »
    I'm not asking about evidence whether it exists or not. But people came out with "vastly more contagious" and they actually put a number to it.

    Sorry for being such a PITA but when I read a number I want to know how the number got there. I cant help it. Spent too many years working as an analyst.

    Im pretty sure that data is available to you though, if you want to check. The UK have been providing updates on its spread and Denmark have been doing it too, so if you are analytically minded you could look at those and do some calculations yourself.


  • #3563
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,599 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    146 in icu

    128 yesterday
    21 admissions
    1 discharge

    Presumably 2 deaths too.

    50% of standard icu capacity is now occupied by covid patients. Never mind people with other health needs.

    Highest level in icu with covid since 12 April.


  • #3564
    StevenToast
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,055 ✭✭✭StevenToast


    Huge increase in ICU

    "Don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining." - Fletcher



  • #3565
    Mervyn Skidmore
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,210 ✭✭✭Mervyn Skidmore


    I know someone who tested post there last week. They are continuing their daily walks on public paths. Anything that can be done to report them?


  • #3566
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    146 now in ICU. 21 admissions in the last 24 hours.
    We'll pass March's peak tomorrow.


  • #3567
    lawred2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,756 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    Mervyn Skidmore wrote: »
    I know someone who tested post there last week. They are continuing their daily walks on public paths. Anything that can be done to report them?

    this will be interesting


  • #3568
    NIMAN
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,788 ✭✭✭✭NIMAN


    As big an issue as ICU beds running out is having the staff to man them.

    With so many nurses out self isolating or sick, it's isn't just having the beds that matters.


  • #3569
    MD1990
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,740 ✭✭✭✭MD1990


    https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1348588165427302407

    as I said earlier.

    Schools will open with thousands of cases a day. Any schools outbreaks will be referred as community transmission.

    This despite the new varient transmitting more in 12-18 years than the previous one.

    The ego of this goverment will cost more lives.
    A month ago we had the goverment & nphet bragging about having the lowest cases like it was some competition with other countries.


  • #3570
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    Anyone else in the mood for a general election?


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  • #3571
    StevenToast
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,055 ✭✭✭StevenToast


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    Anyone else in the mood for a general election?

    No

    "Don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining." - Fletcher



This discussion has been closed.
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