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Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

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  • #3002
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,935 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    marno21 wrote: »
    1421 in hospital as of 8am this morning. Relentless growth in hospitals at the minute unfortunately.

    And 121 in ICU.


  • #3003
    lawred2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,756 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    fits wrote: »
    This is not the same. Not at all. Usually other care continues but everything is being cancelled now to make way for covid. You can’t have covid patients on corridors. I was in one of the regional hospitals during the week. Was there last winter too before this all kicked off and it’s a completely different environment now.

    Is everything being cancelled?

    Cancer screening? etc

    I've read of some less urgent appointments being cancelled but everything?


  • #3004
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,455 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    The only thing we might have going for us is that the lag between cases and hospitalisation seems inexplicably narrow.

    I can't get my head around what's going on

    What's the typical time lag between case detection and hospitalisation?


  • #3005
    fits
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,057 ✭✭✭✭fits


    I was actually in for cancer screening.

    But it appears a lot of that is being cancelled or cut back. Elective Operations too. Eg



  • #3006
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    a
    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    The only thing we might have going for us is that the lag between cases and hospitalisation seems inexplicably narrow.

    I can't get my head around what's going on

    There was was a testing drop over Xmas which moved the day people were confirmed positive closer to the hospitalisation date, and there was likely some wishful thinking going on as well, people ignoring symptoms wanting to have a normal Christmas. This ties in with skyrocketing infection numbers also from the 21st to the 28th


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  • #3007
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    I'd say Christmas introduced a lag to the cases. People holding off going to hospital over those days then ultimately going. Could give the impression of them tightening.

    It's happening at quite a clip. Currently numbers in hospital growing 15% per day. Doubling time is only 5 days. What's the upper limit for our hospitals?

    Unfortunately fits the curve very well not like the high low case/ swab numbers that keep people guessing.

    538957.png

    People putting off going to hospital would surely increase the lag. What we see is a shorter lag than expected.

    It's as though the profile of the disease has changed, and more people are requiring hospitalisation earlier on.
    I'm not saying that's what's happening, just how it appears to me.

    If it's anything like a 14 day lag then it's just a matter of time before they can't really cope. If the lag really is genuinely shorter due to the profile of the disease then we'd hope to see the growth slow in the next couple of days, mirroring what happened with the swab data.


  • #3008
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,599 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    And 121 in ICU.

    That's yesterday's total. The icu update comes later.


  • #3009
    lawred2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,756 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    People putting off going to hospital would surely increase the lag. What we see is a shorter lag than expected.

    It's as though the profile of the disease has changed, and more people are requiring hospitalisation earlier on.
    I'm not saying that's what's happening, just how it appears to me.

    If it's anything like a 14 day lag then it's just a matter of time before they can't really cope. If the lag really is genuinely shorter due to the profile of the disease then we'd hope to see the growth slow in the next couple of days, mirroring what happened with the swab data.

    People putting off going for a test and then being in such a state as requiring hospitalisation maybe...


  • #3010
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »
    That's yesterday's total. The icu update comes later.

    Liam Woods said a few days ago that surge plans allow for the overall ICU capacity to grow to around 350 with a “reasonable standard of normal ICU care provision” so still the only slightly OK figure for now.


  • #3011
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,455 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    People putting off going to hospital would surely increase the lag. What we see is a shorter lag than expected.

    It's as though the profile of the disease has changed, and more people are requiring hospitalisation earlier on.
    I'm not saying that's what's happening, just how it appears to me.

    If it's anything like a 14 day lag then it's just a matter of time before they can't really cope. If the lag really is genuinely shorter due to the profile of the disease then we'd hope to see the growth slow in the next couple of days, mirroring what happened with the swab data.

    I'm not seeing a lag?

    Cases were climbing a lot towards the end of December, translating to the current surge in hospitalisations; cases went stratospheric after new years. I don't think we have seen that hit the hospital data fully juat yet. Hope I'm wrong!


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  • #3012
    Follow_ur_lead
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 60 ✭✭Follow_ur_lead


    Hooefully numhers continue to decline today and we can get schools etc back by end of January.


  • #3013
    klose
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,198 ✭✭✭✭klose


    Jinglejangle69 wrote: »
    If it's not their job who's is it then?????


    When you go back to work to work Monday and are told to do the work of 2-3 or more people for your shift and to get in with it and get it done how would you feel? That's what nurses are going through at the moment cause they're so threadbare with staff due to other nurses contacting covid or isolating.

    People can say hospitals are overrun in winter, fair enough, but they're massively hit for staff and therein lies the problem.


  • #3014
    froog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Liam Woods said a few days ago that surge plans allow for the overall ICU capacity to grow to around 350 with a “reasonable standard of normal ICU care provision” so still the only slightly OK figure for now.

    The big problem is staff. Numbers are very low overall with health care workers out with covid themselves. It was at crisis point in limerick. Others will follow. Not sure how they could enact surge plans without staff.


  • #3015
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Follow_ur_lead wrote: »
    Hooefully numhers continue to decline today and we can get schools etc back by end of January.
    Some people have guessed at cases under 1000 for this to happen but hospital numbers too will have to turn a lot, so the end of January could be too soon.


  • #3016
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    froog wrote: »
    The big problem is staff. Numbers are very low overall with health care workers out with covid themselves. It was at crisis point in limerick. Others will follow. Not sure how they could enact surge plans without staff.
    That was three days ago and they seem confident of it plus the private hospitals will get on board soon enough as well.


  • #3017
    jackboy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,031 ✭✭✭jackboy


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Some people have guessed at cases under 1000 for this to happen but hospital numbers too will have to turn a lot, so the end of January could be too soon.

    There is no chance schools will open with 1000 cases a day. Probably will have to go at least less than 200 cases a day.


  • #3018
    Jinglejangle69
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,131 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    klose wrote: »
    When you go back to work to work Monday and are told to do the work of 2-3 or more people for your shift and to get in with it and get it done how would you feel? That's what nurses are going through at the moment cause they're so threadbare with staff due to other nurses contacting covid or isolating.

    People can say hospitals are overrun in winter, fair enough, but they're massively hit for staff and therein lies the problem.

    I totally agree.

    I feel for them.

    But if they don't do it who else will??

    If it's not their job who's is it??


  • #3019
    giveitholly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,240 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    jackboy wrote: »
    There is no chance schools will open with 1000 cases a day. Probably will have to go at least less than 200 cases a day.

    No way will schools stay closed until cases get down to at least 200 or under


  • #3020
    robfowler78
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 933 ✭✭✭robfowler78


    jackboy wrote: »
    There is no chance schools will open with 1000 cases a day. Probably will have to go at least less than 200 cases a day.

    Jesus I think we could be still looking at 200 cases a day even with the vaccine that’s a very low bar . Do people really think that the cases would have to be that low to open schools?


  • #3021
    lawrencesummers
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,861 ✭✭✭lawrencesummers


    Cant they open schools on a county by county basis depending on numbers.

    No point stopping kids in Kerry going to school because Monaghan is riddled.


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  • #3022
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    jackboy wrote: »
    There is no chance schools will open with 1000 cases a day. Probably will have to go at least less than 200 cases a day.
    I completely disagree with that number. Schools being open are a priority and we had them open at numbers well above that. It's not the only measure, community prevalence of the disease and hospital numbers are part of it. Once prevalence and cases come down we will see moves on schools.


  • #3023
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    lawrencesummers wrote: »
    Cant they open schools on a county by county basis depending on numbers.

    No point stopping kids in Kerry going to school because Monaghan is riddled.
    No it's likely to be all or nothing.


  • #3024
    jackboy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,031 ✭✭✭jackboy


    robfowler78 wrote: »
    Jesus I think we could be still looking at 200 cases a day even with the vaccine that’s a very low bar . Do people really think that the cases would have to be that low to open schools?

    Yes. 1000 cases a day is still way out of control. The numbers will need to be well down to reopen the schools. It will be very hard to get the unions now to agree to school reopening.

    I was actually being generous with 200 cases, it could be lower.

    I would need to hear a strong rationale to think that schools would open with a higher number.


  • #3025
    Follow_ur_lead
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 60 ✭✭Follow_ur_lead


    robfowler78 wrote: »
    Jesus I think we could be still looking at 200 cases a day even with the vaccine that’s a very low bar . Do people really think that the cases would have to be that low to open schools?

    Doubtful. I think they will open end of jan with cases at 1000 or so. Schools need to reopen.


  • #3026
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    jackboy wrote: »
    Yes. 1000 cases a day is still way out of control. The numbers will need to be well down to reopen the schools. It will be very hard to get the unions now to agree to school reopening.

    I was actually being generous with 200 cases, it could be lower.

    I would need to hear a strong rationale to think that schools would open with a higher number.

    Schools were open in October with 1000 cases


  • #3027
    wadacrack
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,172 ✭✭✭wadacrack


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Schools were open in October with 1000 cases

    New variant completely changes the situation. Opening up with 1,000 cases unsustainable and we will end up with ur health service under pressure within weeks


  • #3028
    Follow_ur_lead
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 60 ✭✭Follow_ur_lead


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    Schools were open in October with 1000 cases

    It will be all about the Data and tracking how it is spreading. If it is still shown that teens are pretty much unaffected by this thing then get teachers vaccinated and get them back in school.


  • #3029
    9db3xj7z41fs5u
    Closed Accounts Posts: 172 ✭✭9db3xj7z41fs5u


    Jinglejangle69 wrote: »
    I totally agree.

    I feel for them.

    But if they don't do it who else will??

    If it's not their job who's is it??

    The thing with nurses and doctors is that they have limited time. To take care of a critically ill patient is very time-consuming. A critical care nurse or doctor can realistically only look after a limited number of people, even if they wish otherwise. Even just to assess the patient, transfer the patient, and connecting them to the necessary life supports will take 2+ hours with experienced staff. And then to make up the necessary medications which have to be administered a couple of times per day can take 20 mins per go. If these things are done in a haste, mistakes will be made, for little gain.

    If a primary teacher was asked to suddenly teach a class of a 100, I mean sure they could do it. But hand on heart, the quality of the learning experience would be terrible.

    I have great faith in healthcare workers. A lot of them treat the job as a vocation, and do whatever they can to help! They will do their best to shoulder the burden. But their time is a finite resource.


  • #3030
    Follow_ur_lead
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 60 ✭✭Follow_ur_lead


    wadacrack wrote: »
    New variant completely changes the situation. Opening up with 1,000 cases unsustainable and we will end up with ur health service under pressure within weeks

    I don't think we can cope as a country with a functioning education system either though. Some tough calls to be made without a doubt.

    How many hospitalisations are in the age bracket of 4 to 20?


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  • #3031
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    https://twitter.com/Antcon7062/status/1348213253139267584?s=19


This discussion has been closed.
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