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Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,057 ✭✭✭✭fits


    majcos wrote: »
    HSE operations report 9/1.

    Covid cases hospitalised 1353 as of 8pm - increase from 1214.

    ICU confirmed Covid cases 120 as of 6.30pm - increase from 107.
    3 deaths in ICU 24 hours up to 8am on 9/1.
    Confirmed Covid cases ventilated 71 as of 6.30pm on 9/1 - increase from 65.
    Available ICU beds 37 as of 6.30pm on 9/1. 9 ICUs with no available beds.


    it looks like there’ll be 2000 in hospital by the time hospitalisations peak.

    https://twitter.com/antcon7062/status/1348018386769498122?s=21


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,756 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    People still have families to infect unfortunately.

    I can't see it falling that fast.

    Jesus, how big are these families?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,057 ✭✭✭✭fits




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 653 ✭✭✭Irish_peppa


    Can this statistic be correct ? :eek:

    "1 in 86 people in Ireland had coronavirus during last two weeks"

    If true and with the transmission rate sure this looks grim for us all

    https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/nine-further-covid-19-deaths-and-more-than-4800-new-cases-in-ireland-1062081.html


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,455 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Can this statistic be correct ? :eek:

    "1 in 86 people in Ireland had coronavirus during last two weeks"

    If true and with the transmission rate sure this looks grim for us all

    https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/nine-further-covid-19-deaths-and-more-than-4800-new-cases-in-ireland-1062081.html

    Quite possibly.

    Works out at about 57k people, or about 4k per day.

    The London estimate is around 1 in 30.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,769 ✭✭✭Asdfgh2020


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    Quite possibly.

    Works out at about 57k people, or about 4k per day.

    The London estimate is around 1 in 30.

    Think people should realise that 1 in 86 equates to 1.16% of population with the ‘virus’ and 98.84% without it.

    Similarly 1 in 30 means 3.3% with and 96.7% without


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Bubbaclaus wrote: »
    How does the day of the week reduce the positivity rate of the swabs taken?
    For a good while weekends were seen as lower testing activity. That is probably not the case now. I've learnt to accept the data we get rather than indulging in extended Excel formulas to work out what's happening behind the scenes. Crucial numbers are hospitals and ICU occupancy. Those two and the 5/7 day rate will determine when we can see any changes to restrictions. On a positive note what we seem to be seeing is the peak or near peak in cases.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,512 ✭✭✭harr


    is_that_so wrote: »
    For a good while weekends were seen as lower testing activity. That is probably not the case now. I've learnt to accept the data we get rather than indulging in extended Excel formulas to work out what's happening behind the scenes. Crucial numbers are hospitals and ICU occupancy. Those two and the 5/7 day rate will determine when we can see any changes to restrictions. On a positive note what we seem to be seeing is the peak or near peak in cases.
    If we are near peak of cases when should that reflect in a drop in hospital / ICU numbers ? In reality are we looking at end of January before we see any significant changes in hospital numbers?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 653 ✭✭✭Irish_peppa


    Asdfgh2020 wrote: »
    Think people should realise that 1 in 86 equates to 1.16% of population with the ‘virus’ and 98.84% without it.

    Similarly 1 in 30 means 3.3% with and 96.7% without

    Phew that statisitic gave me a shock i can chill out now :cool:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    harr wrote: »
    If we are near peak of cases when should that reflect in a drop in hospital / ICU numbers ? In reality are we looking at end of January before we see any significant changes in hospital numbers?
    Think it's reckoned to be about 2 weeks or so but if cases are still high (> 1000) it could be longer.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    Imo

    We're past the peak and the big mixing period was the run up to Christmas as peopled piled into town for restaurants, drinks and shopping, rather than Christmas day stuff.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,057 ✭✭✭✭fits


    froog wrote: »
    Imo

    We're past the peak and the big mixing period was the run up to Christmas as peopled piled into town for restaurants, drinks and shopping, rather than Christmas day stuff.

    Past the cases peak maybe but there’s still a tsunami heading for the hospitals.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    fits wrote: »
    Past the cases peak maybe but there’s still a tsunami heading for the hospitals.

    Yep, hospitals wont peak for possibly 2 weeks going by previous lag periods. Grim.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,650 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    1421 in hospital as of 8am this morning. Relentless growth in hospitals at the minute unfortunately.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,861 ✭✭✭lawrencesummers


    I have been calling for testing at airports for a long time.

    It’s only now that it has come in, and it’s limited in its necessity depending on where you are coming from.

    We have the Uk variant here and the SA variant, we are very slow to detect it and it would explain some bit the huge increase of late. We know they most likely had to arrive by air travel. If we had testing in place it could have caught that.

    So we are where we are, and we have to deal with it. That’s fine, but we also need to learn from this mistake.

    But what’s stopping a US variant, or a German, French, Spanish, Brazilian Variant or any other variant from happening????? Not much I presume is the answer, or better again scientists just don’t really know.

    SO WHY ARE WE NOT BRINGING IN TESTING FOR ALL TRAVELERS??????


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,512 ✭✭✭harr


    The hospital situation sounds scary, I know most people are shielded from what it’s like on the the hospital floor , I was speaking to a couple of nurse friends who work in a Dublin hospital on the phone yesterday who actually sounded genuinely scared of what they will experience in the next few weeks.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,985 ✭✭✭Sweet.Science


    I have been calling for testing at airports for a long time.

    It’s only now that it has come in, and it’s limited in its necessity depending on where you are coming from.

    We have the Uk variant here and the SA variant, we are very slow to detect it and it would explain some bit the huge increase of late. We know they most likely had to arrive by air travel. If we had testing in place it could have caught that.

    So we are where we are, and we have to deal with it. That’s fine, but we also need to learn from this mistake.

    But what’s stopping a US variant, or a German, French, Spanish, Brazilian Variant or any other variant from happening????? Not much I presume is the answer, or better again scientists just don’t really know.

    SO WHY ARE WE NOT BRINGING IN TESTING FOR ALL TRAVELERS??????

    How come we can say UK variant SA variant and can't say chinese virus


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,248 ✭✭✭✭iamwhoiam


    harr wrote: »
    The hospital situation sounds scary, I know most people are shielded from what it’s like on the the hospital floor , I was speaking to a couple of nurse friends who work in a Dublin hospital on the phone yesterday who actually sounded genuinely scared of what they will experience in the next few weeks.

    Sick people at home must also be scared . Imagine being at home very sick with covid or looking after a loved one and hearing the hospitals are in crisis
    It must be petrifying to hear that when afraid you might need it


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    froog wrote: »
    Yep, hospitals wont peak for possibly 2 weeks going by previous lag periods. Grim.

    I'd agree with that. It's actually increased faster in the last week vs the previous week.

    Making October look flat.

    538956.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,166 ✭✭✭Fr_Dougal


    I have been calling for testing at airports for a long time.

    Who have you contacted?


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,131 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    iamwhoiam wrote: »
    Sick people at home must also be scared . Imagine being at home very sick with covid or looking after a loved one and hearing the hospitals are in crisis
    It must be petrifying to hear that when afraid you might need it

    Let's not panic too much yet.

    Hospitals experience crisis every winter.

    They are still not anywhere near people on corridors or nowhere to treat them.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,193 ✭✭✭screamer


    harr wrote: »
    The hospital situation sounds scary, I know most people are shielded from what it’s like on the the hospital floor , I was speaking to a couple of nurse friends who work in a Dublin hospital on the phone yesterday who actually sounded genuinely scared of what they will experience in the next few weeks.

    I feel sorry for them, as the nurses take the brunt of it all in the hospitals. They’re only human too, and no, I don’t think it’s their job just get on with it. They are at higher risk of catching Covid too. Read this morning hospitals are conserving oxygen, just grim all around.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,131 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    screamer wrote: »
    I feel sorry for them, as the nurses take the brunt of it all in the hospitals. They’re only human too, and no, I don’t think it’s their job just get on with it. They are at higher risk of catching Covid too. Read this morning hospitals are conserving oxygen, just grim all around.

    If it's not their job who's is it then?????


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,382 ✭✭✭petes


    Fr_Dougal wrote: »
    Who have you contacted?

    Just this thread on boards.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    I'd agree with that. It's actually increased faster in the last week vs the previous week.

    Making October look flat.

    The only thing we might have going for us is that the lag between cases and hospitalisation seems inexplicably narrow.

    I can't get my head around what's going on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,756 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    Asdfgh2020 wrote: »
    Think people should realise that 1 in 86 equates to 1.16% of population with the ‘virus’ and 98.84% without it.

    Similarly 1 in 30 means 3.3% with and 96.7% without

    Anyone with a basic grasp of maths understands that..

    What's your point?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,756 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    fits wrote: »
    Past the cases peak maybe but there’s still a tsunami heading for the hospitals.

    A tsunami?

    How exciting!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,057 ✭✭✭✭fits


    Let's not panic too much yet.

    Hospitals experience crisis every winter.

    They are still not anywhere near people on corridors or nowhere to treat them.

    This is not the same. Not at all. Usually other care continues but everything is being cancelled now to make way for covid. You can’t have covid patients on corridors. I was in one of the regional hospitals during the week. Was there last winter too before this all kicked off and it’s a completely different environment now.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,131 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    fits wrote: »
    This is not the same. Not at all. Usually other care continues but everything is being cancelled now to make way for covid. You can’t have covid patients on corridors. I was in one of the regional hospitals during the week. Was there last winter too before this all kicked off and it’s a completely different environment now.

    Yeah I was working in a hospital during the week and I commented here it was quite and a lot of staff standing around chatting.

    Didn't see the covid ward so obviously different.

    I'm just saying no point in panicking and loosing our marbles.

    I think the health system will manage this.

    It will be a challenge of course but let's try stay positive.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    The only thing we might have going for us is that the lag between cases and hospitalisation seems inexplicably narrow.

    I can't get my head around what's going on

    I'd say Christmas introduced a lag to the cases. People holding off going to hospital over those days then ultimately going. Could give the impression of them tightening.

    It's happening at quite a clip. Currently numbers in hospital growing 15% per day. Doubling time is only 5 days. What's the upper limit for our hospitals?

    Unfortunately fits the curve very well not like the high low case/ swab numbers that keep people guessing.

    538957.png


This discussion has been closed.
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