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Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

1…8788909293…333

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  • #2672
    Coillte_Bhoy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,932 ✭✭✭Coillte_Bhoy


    Funsterdelux wrote: »
    Cheese and chive isnt everyones cup of tea, but each to their own

    And what exactly is corn relish?? :eek:


  • #2673
    Pigeon Chaser
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 263 ✭✭Pigeon Chaser


    Poor old Gruffalux has lost all sense of reality at this stage.

    My wife and I can't even agree what to have for dinner ffs.

    The idea of the entire world working in unison is utterly ludicrous and absolutely impossible.


  • #2674
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,599 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    fm wrote: »
    Couldn't this new variant be spreading faster based on its timing? The fact its winter, more people in door, Christmas etc? Giving it more of an advantage. Wasn't it discovered in September and took awhile to spread?

    If it was just winter the new variant would be a static % of total cases. The old variant and the new variant would both spread quicker.

    Im sure the fact that its winter helps but its not making a huge difference to the growth of the old variant compared to the new variant.


  • #2675
    WoollyRedHat
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,462 ✭✭✭✭WoollyRedHat


    is_that_so wrote: »
    So based on this we all stay locked down for the next 5 years. That is a massive mental health disaster in the making, never mind the trillions we'd need to spend to do so. I wouldn't class what Australia did as rational but it seemed to work for them because they, like NZ are isolated. Their approach is draconian and somewhat authoritarian and really wouldn't work in most countries. They, like everyone else will vaccinate soon enough.

    Australia reacted like every country should have. If the majority of countries reacted like Australia, this thing would not be rampant across several continent's. It's not zero Covid, it's suppress to delay and then vaccinate. The Australian approach is the sensible approach.


  • #2676
    froog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    there's unquestionably a strong seasonal aspect to this. australia, south africa, argentina all had a peak in june (their winter). northern hemispheres dealing with winter now and it's out of control.


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  • #2677
    mandrake04
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,435 ✭✭✭mandrake04


    Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »
    And what exactly is corn relish?? :eek:

    Obviously it’s a relish made from corn, goes well with cheese crackers.

    Prefer Hoummus and caramelised onion or Spicy Capsicum myself, but I didn’t do the shopping.


  • #2678
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    MerlinSouthDub wrote: »
    43% more transmissible is actually less bad the original estimates of 70% more transmissible. If 43% is accurate, it will be possible to suppress the virus significantly using the level 5 measures and get r significantly below 1.

    That's a very confident projection. I know you tend to be optimistic but that hasn't really worked out in 2020. Maybe it's better to apply some caution before stating assertions regarding covid. It tends to make lots of people look silly 2 3 months after their predictions if this forum is anything to go by.


  • #2679
    majcos
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 596 ✭✭✭majcos


    HSE operations report 8/1.

    Covid cases hospitalised 1214 as of 8pm - increase from 1076 .
    (Further increase to 1285 as of 8am this morning Covid geohub)

    ICU confirmed Covid cases 107 as of 6.30pm - increase from 95.
    (Further increase to 119 as of 11am Covid geohub.)
    1 death in ICU 24 hours up to 8am yesterday.
    Confirmed Covid cases ventilated 65 as of 6.30pm yesterday - increase from 61.
    Available ICU beds 27 as of 6.30pm yesterday. 11 ICUs with no available beds.


  • #2680
    robfowler78
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 933 ✭✭✭robfowler78


    froog wrote: »
    there's unquestionably a strong seasonal aspect to this. australia, south africa, argentina all had a peak in june (their winter). northern hemispheres dealing with winter now and it's out of control.


    I agree I think the government know this to and are hoping that between vaccines and the seasonal aspect of it we can have low numbers throughout summer and hopefully be in a much better place for next winter ie no lockdowns and places open but still limits on large gatherings and social distancing in place but not as in your face . Once this happens people will move on it’s hard to believe we are nearly a year into these measures.


  • #2681
    Pete_Cavan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,376 ✭✭✭Pete_Cavan


    froog wrote: »
    there's unquestionably a strong seasonal aspect to this. australia, south africa, argentina all had a peak in june (their winter). northern hemispheres dealing with winter now and it's out of control.

    It would certainly appear so. There are aspects of this over which we have no control or influence, thinking we can achieve zero Covid is overestimating our influence.


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  • #2682
    robfowler78
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 933 ✭✭✭robfowler78


    Pete_Cavan wrote: »
    It would certainly appear so. There are aspects of this over which we have no control or influence, thinking we can achieve zero Covid is overestimating our influence.

    Yes zero Covid is were we started with this thing and look at how most of the countries reacted when it first broke out in Wuhan it was everybody for themselves for PPE etc and fast forward a year and it’s the same for the vaccines. You won’t change human behaviour and that’s why I don’t think zero Covid was ever really viable on a world wide scale.


  • #2683
    funnydoggy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,065 ✭✭✭funnydoggy


    We can't even get social distancing right, and people think zero COVID would work?


  • #2684
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    robfowler78 wrote: »
    Yes zero Covid is were we started with this thing and look at how most of the countries reacted when it first broke out in Wuhan it was everybody for themselves for PPE etc and fast forward a year and it’s the same for the vaccines. You won’t change human behaviour and that’s why I don’t think zero Covid was ever really viable on a world wide scale.

    Yeah that's why we still have smallpox. Eradicating a disease through a combination of suppression and vaccination is impossible in the modern age.(sarcasm)
    Thankfully smallpox didn't come about now otherwise you'd get people saying "We need to live with it" Which is code for some people will have to die with it. As long as I'm alright jack.


  • #2685
    Irish Steve
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 6,524 Mod ✭✭✭✭Irish Steve


    I came across this on Facebook earlier, and I think it deserves a wider audience, as this is where it's at on the front line, at a hospital that's at the sharp end of what's happening.
    This is me.

    This is me during a 12 and a half hour shift on my second breakdown of the day. I never cry in work or about work but today was one of my worst days in my career to date. I work in the Emergency Department in OLOL (Drogheda).

    Everyday is a learning day and I love my job but today I couldn't wait to get out of the place. We were overcrowded in the COVID area - patients sitting on chairs, trolleys, people sitting in every free space possible, patients sitting out by doors, on corridors, ambulance crew coming in with patients on stretchers with knowehere to put them, patients coming in with Shortness of breath - no cubicle to put them in.

    We try to prioritise but when everyone is COVID positive and everyone is very sick with mostly needing Intravenous fluids, antibiotics, nebulisers, steroids and some needing Cpap and Bipap, How do you determine who needs it most - The patient who has stage 4 lung cancer or the elderly frail lady who has chronic COPD? There's no end and truth be told it will be awhile before there is an end.

    Not to mention how understaffed we are due to colleagues being positive, isolating, off due to stress, The list goes on.. So the nurse to patient ratio is now 1 nurse to 9 patients.

    I understand its very hard to listen to the information of 'stay home' and 'isolate' but look at it this way, when you make the decisions you do, everyone is effected. Is it your granny you want to see in our overcrowded Emergency Department with possibly no ideal place for her to go? Your neighbour? Your Dad? Your pregnant wife? Your best friend? Your child? Is it these people you want in here with us?

    These people who probably won't get the high quality care that they deserve but unfortunately we can't give them because were transferring patients to the ward, trying to get the heart rate of the next patient to slow down or they will/could have a cardiac arrest any minute followed by running to the lady who is 12/40 weeks pregnant who is actively miscarrying and needs to be rushed to theatre?

    Please if anything listen to the advice and keep your people safe. This is no joke. This is happening around us now.

    Shore, if it was easy, everybody would be doin it.😁



  • #2686
    MerlinSouthDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,627 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    That's a very confident projection. I know you tend to be optimistic but that hasn't really worked out in 2020. Maybe it's better to apply some caution before stating assertions regarding covid. It tends to make lots of people look silly 2 3 months after their predictions if this forum is anything to go by.

    It's not a prediction, it's based on the assumption that 43% is accurate. If it's actually 70%, then big problems I'm afraid.


  • #2687
    robfowler78
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 933 ✭✭✭robfowler78


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Yeah that's why we still have smallpox. Eradicating a disease through a combination of suppression and vaccination is impossible in the modern age.(sarcasm)
    Thankfully smallpox didn't come about now otherwise you'd get people saying "We need to live with it" Which is code for some people will have to die with it. As long as I'm alright jack.

    I’m talking in relation to this idea that the whole world was going to lockdown at the same time with no vaccines as was suggested by people in the beginning. As you said yourself vaccines and medicine played a big part in smallpox eradication. And we did live with smallpox or was that eradicated in 12months ( sarcasm ).


  • #2688
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    MerlinSouthDub wrote: »
    43% more transmissible is actually less bad the original estimates of 70% more transmissible. If 43% is accurate, it will be possible to suppress the virus significantly using the level 5 measures and get r significantly below 1.
    caveat emptor wrote: »
    That's a very confident projection. I know you tend to be optimistic but that hasn't really worked out in 2020. Maybe it's better to apply some caution before stating assertions regarding covid. It tends to make lots of people look silly 2 3 months after their predictions if this forum is anything to go by.
    MerlinSouthDub wrote: »
    It's not a prediction, it's based on the assumption that 43% is accurate. If it's actually 70%, then big problems I'm afraid.


    I've highlighted your prediction there. It's a statement about something that is going to occur in the future. By definition it's a prediction. One with no substance might I add. UK couldn't control the numbers even with a lockdown when the new variant took hold.

    Either way there is a high degree of uncertainty regarding your prediction. I wouldn't bet on it. A 43% increase in transmissibility is very worrying. Hence why they've closed schools in UK and we have had to do the same.

    Leaving kids uneducated and cancelling routine hospital appointments isn't sustainable. Hopefully it will come under control but this is the third wave. As soon as we relax restrictions exponential growth , here we come AGAIN.


  • #2689
    Funsterdelux
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭Funsterdelux


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    I've highlighted your prediction there. It's a statement about something that is going to occur in the future. By definition it's a prediction. One with no substance might I add. UK couldn't control the numbers even with a lockdown when the new variant took hold.

    Either way there is a high degree of uncertainty regarding your prediction. I wouldn't bet on it. A 43% increase in transmissibility is very worrying. Hence why they've closed schools in UK and we have had to do the same.

    Leaving kids uneducated and cancelling routine hospital appointments isn't sustainable. Hopefully it will come under control but this is the third wave. As soon as we relax restrictions exponential growth , here we come AGAIN.

    Theres never been a forth wave and never will!


  • #2690
    ginoginelli
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,332 ✭✭✭ginoginelli


    robfowler78 wrote: »
    Yes zero Covid is were we started with this thing and look at how most of the countries reacted when it first broke out in Wuhan it was everybody for themselves for PPE etc and fast forward a year and it’s the same for the vaccines. You won’t change human behaviour and that’s why I don’t think zero Covid was ever really viable on a world wide scale.

    Zero covid kind of got hijacked at this stage and is misconstrued by many. A more realistic "living with covid" plan is what we should have aimed for from the beginning.

    The Australians have shown what living with covid really should be. Strict travel measures, speedy localized lockdowns, track and trace, and strong enforcment on masks, parties etc. Through these methods they are able to stamp down covid when it inevitably rears it ugly head and live a pretty normal life for the most part.


  • #2691
    DebDynamite
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,727 ✭✭✭DebDynamite


    mandrake04 wrote: »
    Believe me it’s fine, I’m in NSW and we had 1 case in community and 5 cases in travel quarantine today... all pubs, restaurants, retail, cinemas, theatres etc are open. Sure there are few restrictions and things could change tomorrow but live each day as it comes and appreciate it. We been living normal enough since last June so are definitely in front rather than living like a rat, even if we had a major outbreak now in the game we are still in front especially with vaccine plan

    trust me it fine.

    Great to hear Mandrake. That sounds like the dream at the moment. Enjoy it!

    Do you know how many cases/percentage of overall cases were caught in quarantine from overseas arrivals? I would be interesting to know how how many cases were caught and were prevented from going on to spread throughout the whole country?


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  • #2692
    Gruffalux
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Gruffalux


    ginoginelli wrote: »
    Zero covid kind of got hijacked at this stage and is misconstrued by many. A more realistic "living with covid" plan is what we should have aimed for from the beginning.

    The Australians have shown what living with covid really should be. Strict travel measures, speedy localized lockdowns, track and trace, and strong enforcment on masks, parties etc. Through these methods they are able to stamp down covid when it inevitably rears it ugly head and live a pretty normal life for the most part.

    Yes. Zero covid is probably the wrong name - it should be The Least Amount of Covid Humanly Possible Protocol.
    Life in Australia looks a lot nicer right now than what most of Europe have and will have for quite some time to come. But you know me, mad as a bag of spiders :) Happily.

    OMG-this-is-crazy-GIF.gif


  • #2693
    robfowler78
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 933 ✭✭✭robfowler78


    ginoginelli wrote: »
    Zero covid kind of got hijacked at this stage and is misconstrued by many. A more realistic "living with covid" plan is what we should have aimed for from the beginning.

    The Australians have shown what living with covid really should be. Strict travel measures, speedy localized lockdowns, track and trace, and strong enforcment on masks, parties etc. Through these methods they are able to stamp down covid when it inevitably rears it ugly head and live a pretty normal life for the most part.

    Exactly right but that’s were I think the government let us down the people did lockdown and do their bit but the government kind of dropped the ball with track and trace , travel , inforcement etc. But it’s easier to blame the Christmas gatherings and the people now.


  • #2694
    Pete_Cavan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,376 ✭✭✭Pete_Cavan


    robfowler78 wrote: »
    I’m talking in relation to this idea that the whole world was going to lockdown at the same time with no vaccines as was suggested by people in the beginning.

    We can't even coordinate a lockdown on this tiny island yet some thought and still think that one can be coordinated across the globe.


  • #2695
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    fm wrote: »
    Couldn't this new variant be spreading faster based on its timing? The fact its winter, more people in door, Christmas etc? Giving it more of an advantage. Wasn't it discovered in September and took awhile to spread?

    That is the case but the report linked is from the winter period only. It might explain some of it though. If the variant was taking over you'd expect there to be more variant in December vs November. You'd also expect more indoors in December. I'm not sure if the time of year was controlled for in that study. Might account for some of the variance if it wasn't controlled for.
    956,519 contacts reported to NHS Test and Trace were exposed between 30 November 2020 and 20 December 2020. 20,497 contacts were reported by cases with genomic sequencing data; 9,228 of those contacts were reported by cases with VOC 202012/01. 525,001 contacts were reported by pillar 2 cases tested by TaqPath labs; 262,769 of those contacts were reported by cases with SGTF.
    121,072 (12.7%) of all contacts were known to become cases (secondary attack rate) 2 :

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/950823/Variant_of_Concern_VOC_202012_01_Technical_Briefing_3_-_England.pdf


  • #2696
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Seems like they went with the hire people you agree with strategy. I'd bet he is a safe pair of hands. Gave him a massive pay rise too.

    Wave 4 all but guaranteed. You couldn't make this **** up.

    https://twitter.com/ToniTaylor546/status/1346463871389745152?s=20
    The Government has approved a pay rise of more than €90,000 for the position of secretary general of the Department of Health, making the person to be appointed to the role the highest-paid civil servant in the country.
    The post, which is being advertised by open competition, is to attract a salary of €292,000 per annum.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/department-of-health-secretary-general-pay-to-rise-by-over-90-000-1.4453509


  • #2697
    pm1977x
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,213 ✭✭✭pm1977x


    de Gascun on radio 1 saying it wasn't fully clear but looks like the backlog has washed through the system :confused: how is that possible and how is he unsure!?


  • #2698
    fly_agaric
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,332 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    mandrake04 wrote: »
    Believe me it’s fine, I’m in NSW and we had 1 case in community and 5 cases in travel quarantine today... all pubs, restaurants, retail, cinemas, theatres etc are open. Sure there are few restrictions and things could change tomorrow but live each day as it comes and appreciate it.

    Thanks for the "road not travelled" posts. The inevitable negative and dismissive responses that come up when any countries who have been more successful are mentioned are "sour grapes".

    It is almost impossible for humans to admit they perhaps made an error especially if personal circumstances, ideology & deeply held beliefs come into it.

    Our former leader likes to quote Terminator films so:
    We're not gonna make it, are we?


  • #2699
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,038 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    Pigeon Chaser wrote: »
    My wife and I can't even agree what to have for dinner ffs.
    I'm curious as to what ye do be cooking that has a ~1% chance of killing whoever eats it..


  • #2700
    bb1234567
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    Water2021 wrote: »
    Your not mad at all Gruffalux

    I've been saying this for a year now

    People still have head in the sand

    Closed economy is the only way for now

    China went eradication for a reason, pharmacology is great but can only do so much and that pharmacology is only going to work for the wealthy countries short term

    All those poor countries are going to let it run free with no pharmacology and it's going to mutate eventually inside those 500 million poor people

    It will be lockdown after lockdown as this thing figures us out

    This will have people calling me deluded like you

    Don't know if anyone else read that post on 4chan forum in January 2020 on Covid

    It was before we had any idea what Covid what was capable, one poster there claimed to have knowledge from a friend in the CDC and it sounded really far fetched at the time, but it's all came true except last part

    He said China and WHO were lying and it was airbourne, not droplets, Ro of 6 and not 3 like they were saying and the Wuhan strain was more lethal and it would mutate after hiting Europe badly due to Chinese links and they wouldn't call it infected anymore, it would be confirmed cases.

    He went on to say it would hit Italy hard ( this was January well before it happened ) and the scenes in Italy would cause the world to panic and do Wuhan style lockdowns all over and adviced people to sell stocks in airlines, hotel's etc as they are doomed, he went onto say it will infected millions upon millions until a vaccine came along, but that would only be short lived

    The friend he had said they " CDC " were not afraid of the strains that would mutate in humans as the vaccines would work against them, but the wildlife

    They worrried about it going to Brazil and mutating with indigenous bats in that area and evading vaccines and becoming more lethal

    It's all been more less or true except for the wildlife bat part in Brazil

    When I hear about bad strains coming out of Brazil and something to do with bats, i'll be worried then.

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1347745227205971968
    :eek:


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  • #2701
    MerlinSouthDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,627 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    pm1977x wrote: »
    de Gascun on radio 1 saying it wasn't fully clear but looks like the backlog has washed through the system :confused: how is that possible and how is he unsure!?

    Did he really say it wasn't fully clear? Wow, that's pretty extraordinary. The swab data is official published data, it's not like it's made up.


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