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Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

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Comments

  • #2492
    froog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    HalfAndHalf wrote: »
    I wouldn’t say an R number of between 2.4 and 3 is coming under control myself.

    the rate of increase is slowing and even starting to level out. i'm not saying we're "good" by any means. just that the trends seem to be starting to go in the right direction.

    of course there is the issue of less testing of close contacts, i'm not sure how that factors in exactly.

    538830.JPG


  • #2493
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,421 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    HalfAndHalf wrote: »
    Rampant is how many new people are catching it, not the severity in which they have it.

    So having double a transmission rate doesn’t mean anything to you no?

    Ours is between 2.4 and 3, over is 1.0 and 1.4

    R0 is just a single indicator. We started from a relatively low base (compared to the UK)


  • #2494
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    Goldengirl wrote: »
    Thanks Tony .
    Lovely exponential coloured lines there ;)
    Fair dues ðŸ‘

    I spent about 40% of my time getting the colours right. Happy with them in fairness.

    The point, if you don't mind me making it blindingly obvious (for others), is that cases have been a poor guide for the trajectory of the infection. Swabs are imperfect, but track pretty well to the data that Phil Nolan and his team base their models off. Or at least they did for the duration we can see.

    Anyways, I'm boring the hole off myself so I'll stop.


  • #2495
    HalfAndHalf
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 827 ✭✭✭HalfAndHalf


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    R0 is just a single indicator. We started from a relatively low base (compared to the UK)

    It’s an indicator or how many people 1 person will infect.

    I guess the facts make you and I think different things then. Good luck.


  • #2496
    Danno
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    embraer170 wrote: »
    It really shouldn't be that difficult to identify passengers coming from South Africa (or anywhere else):

    - Use the data passenger locator form actively and do checks on flights with many passengers arriving from higher risk areas;

    - Airlines could share data about all passengers travelling from South Africa to Ireland through their hubs (self connecting passengers would be identified but they are a minority);

    - Have immigration ask every passenger where they started their journey: it would take a few seconds at most and easily manageable with today's passenger numbers. The automatic immigration machines may cause an issue but you could have someone ask before/after the machine. You can put an additional filter at customs with officers there screening all passengers with non-green (meaning non-EU) luggage tags.

    If Irish authorities have no clue of who is landing here or from where they've came then that is an utter farce.
    Passenger locator sheets need to be with immigration officers as soon as a departing flight to Ireland has left it's origin.


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  • #2497
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,599 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    HalfAndHalf wrote: »
    I wouldn’t say an R number of between 2.4 and 3 is coming under control myself.

    The R number is a historic measure that determines what the situation was like between 5 and 10 days ago.

    There are indications that things are improving.

    Positive swabs are down two days in a row. The swab positivity rate is down 2 days in a row. The seven day average for psoitivity fell today. Measures of gp referals for testing is down.

    That said while things are improving I would definitely not consider things under control.


  • #2498
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,421 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    froog wrote: »
    the rate of increase is slowing and even starting to level out. i'm not saying we're "good" by any means. just that the trends seem to be starting to go in the right direction.

    of course there is the issue of less testing of close contacts, i'm not sure how that factors in exactly.

    538830.JPG

    If we were testing close contacts and assuming ~12.5% were positive as per before it would lower the positivity rate.
    However with a 20% positivity rate and people congregating indoors over Christmas.... you could argue that that close contact rate would be higher.
    But on the flip side, 70% of those would go on to develop symptoms and one would assume would get tested.
    So maybe the initial crash of the contact tracing failed to pick up the close contacts until they eventually developed symptoms and got tested causing a spike in cases.
    There's so many bloody variables.:confused:


  • #2499
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    froog wrote: »

    of course there is the issue of less testing of close contacts, i'm not sure how that factors in exactly.

    If we were still testing in the old fashion we'd have more cases, but a lower positivity rate.


  • #2500
    Endintheclowns
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 138 ✭✭Endintheclowns


    froog wrote: »
    it looks to me like it's coming under control tbh. (the transmission, not the situation in the hospitals, which is dire)

    "Under control"? That's some level 5 denial right there friend. We'd 8k plus cases today without any backlog built in.


  • #2501
    ThunbergsAreGo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,399 ✭✭✭✭ThunbergsAreGo


    Honestly fcuk Paul Reid being on the Late Late

    Essential my bollix


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  • #2502
    Azatadine
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,591 ✭✭✭Azatadine


    Endintheclowns wrote: »
    "Under control"? That's some level 5 denial right there friend. We'd 8k plus cases today without any backlog built in.

    The backlog WAS built in....


  • #2503
    ThunbergsAreGo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,399 ✭✭✭✭ThunbergsAreGo


    Endintheclowns wrote: »
    "Under control"? That's some level 5 denial right there friend. We'd 8k plus cases today without any backlog built in.

    There was a backlog today....


  • #2504
    froog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    Endintheclowns wrote: »
    "Under control"? That's some level 5 denial right there friend. We'd 8k plus cases today without any backlog built in.

    there was a 3k backlog today. george lee was wrong.


  • #2505
    Endintheclowns
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 138 ✭✭Endintheclowns


    Azatadine wrote: »
    The backlog WAS built in....

    Proof? I heard on the news it wasn't.


  • #2506
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,599 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    Endintheclowns wrote: »
    Proof? I heard on the news it wasn't.

    Backlog is difference between cases and swabs

    https://t.co/s9OXOUwGht?amp=1

    5k swabs 8k cases 3k backlog


  • #2507
    Queried
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 241 ✭✭Queried


    I read that the backlog had been cleared yesterday, but numbers don't seem to add up looking at positive swabs from yesterday.


  • #2508
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    there was definitely backlog cases involved in today's number, but nobody here knows the ratio

    *shoots and blows smoke from finger-gun*


  • #2509
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,599 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    Queried wrote: »
    I read that the backlog had been cleared yesterday, but numbers don't seem to add up looking at positive swabs from yesterday.

    The media (to be specific Richard Chambers) misquoted Professor Nolan. The rest of the media quoted Chambers.

    What Nolan said was that the backlog was around 24 hours more than usual.


  • #2510
    Endintheclowns
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 138 ✭✭Endintheclowns


    Still not convinced.

    They need to clear it up either way.


  • #2511
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,599 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    Endintheclowns wrote: »
    Still not convinced.

    OK. That's fun. Enjoy yourself.


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  • #2512
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    Endintheclowns wrote: »
    Still not convinced.

    We'll all take turns shaking you by the shoulders and shouting in your face until you're convinced. We have previous.

    Are you convinced?


  • #2513
    froog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    froog wrote: »
    looks like a clear backlog of 3k added on to today's figures. unless i'm missing something?

    538827.JPG

    quoting my own post.

    it's clear as day. you can see the positive swabs, and reported cases there by day and the difference between them. clearly a 3k backlog added to todays positive swabs of 5k.


  • #2514
    Queried
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 241 ✭✭Queried


    froog wrote: »
    quoting my own post.

    it's clear as day. you can see the positive swabs, and reported cases there by day and the difference between them. clearly a 3k backlog added to todays positive swabs of 5k.

    Yeah this makes sense. I was so confused when I saw the figures earlier; just didn't add up. Thanks for sharing.


  • #2515
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    froog wrote: »
    quoting my own post.

    it's clear as day. you can see the positive swabs, and reported cases there by day and the difference between them. clearly a 3k backlog added to todays positive swabs of 5k.

    that's absolutely what that chart says, but I don't think it's as clinical as that behind the scenes

    in fact I'm sure it's chaos


  • #2516
    manofwisdom
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,119 ✭✭✭manofwisdom


    Endintheclowns wrote: »
    Still not convinced.
    Gotta love newbies that pretend to be newbies..


  • #2517
    darem93
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 200 ✭✭darem93


    Danno wrote: »
    If Irish authorities have no clue of who is landing here or from where they've came then that is an utter farce.
    Passenger locator sheets need to be with immigration officers as soon as a departing flight to Ireland has left it's origin.
    They definitely don't. I know a family who came from England in September, they came on the ferry via Dublin and not a thing was asked at the port. Same at Christmas, the amount of people out and about who came straight off the plane from England was crazy. Not of course that I would begrudge anyone getting home for Christmas in normal times, but come on... with the situation the way it was over there around that time...

    When I tested positive I got a call from the HSE asking did I see anyone out over Christmas that was home from the UK. I was like imagine asking normal civilians to squeal on people because of a situation the government has completely sat back and enabled. If they knew that was causing a problem with community spread why was it allowed to happen in the first place? It's absolute madness.


  • #2518
    Endintheclowns
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 138 ✭✭Endintheclowns


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    We'll all take turns shaking you by the shoulders and shouting in your face until you're convinced. We have previous.

    Are you convinced?

    You'll have to shake me first Tony i'll get back to you then.

    Poor form by the national broadcaster either way if they got it wrong.


  • #2519
    MerlinSouthDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,627 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    that's absolutely what that chart says, but I don't think it's as clinical as that behind the scenes

    in fact I'm sure it's chaos

    The case data is certainly chaos. But I’ve a lot of faith in the swab data, it has never let us down and anytime we’ve thought there is a backlog based on swab data, that has turned out to be correct. Just ignore the case numbers, look only at the swab data and you get the true picture.


  • #2520
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    MerlinSouthDub wrote: »
    The case data is certainly chaos. But I’ve a lot of faith in the swab data, it has never let us down and anytime we’ve thought there is a backlog based on swab data, that has turned out to be correct. Just ignore the case numbers, look only at the swab data and you get the true picture.

    I'm Tony Maloney and I approve this message.
    Swabs are far from perfect but they're the best we've got.

    Cases are for epidemiological newbies. That's right. I said it.


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  • #2521
    bikeman1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭bikeman1


    George Lee should be taken off the news. I’m sure there are very many people up and down the country in fear with the numbers announced today.

    Then he comes on and starts spouting out incorrect statements saying there is no backlog in the numbers today and that all the cases happened yesterday. Then he goes off driving more fear for people.

    There are folks literally terrified watching the Late Late Show tonight.


This discussion has been closed.
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