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Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

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Comments

  • #1202
    GreeBo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,508 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »
    Yes you are telling me that the hospital are 10 times worse than they were last year. I provided data from the INMO on hospital overcrowding on 7-Jan-2020. I am waiting to see how you can state that they are now 10 times worse. We are talking about hospital capacity here.

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=115832814&postcount=1101

    Do you not comprehend that the reason someone is in hospital is important or you think it makes no difference?

    Would you prefer a hospital at 200% but all patients have broken fingers or one at 105% where all patients have covid?


  • #1203
    Wesekn.
    Closed Accounts Posts: 120 ✭✭Wesekn.


    wadacrack wrote: »
    Flights resuming to the UK is insanity too. Tragedy unfolding.

    They're being tested now coming in


  • #1204
    Leftwaffe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,558 ✭✭✭Leftwaffe


    Wesekn. wrote: »
    They're being tested now coming in

    Negative PCR test 72 hours before the flight, better than nothing but will probably be ineffective too.


  • #1205
    Gael23
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,151 ✭✭✭✭Gael23


    Are there any arrangements for general critical care admissions like heart attacks road accidents etc that need ICU?


  • #1206
    Richard Hillman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,033 ✭✭✭✭Richard Hillman


    How are arrivals being vetted for tests? Is it the airline not allowing people to board or are they being stopped in the Airport on arrival?

    What are the odds on somebody arriving into Dublin Airport without a test and being turned around? Zip, I'll tell you.


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  • #1207
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    IIRC in April the ICU capacity leased from the private sector was to be used exclusively for non-covid patients.


  • #1208
    Le Bruise
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,353 ✭✭✭Le Bruise


    landofthetree wrote: »
    This wont be over till 2023 at the earliest. The governments and the WHO need to start being honest with people.

    https://www.top1000funds.com/2020/12/2023-until-normal-returns/



    "Speaking at FIS Digital 2020 Dr Ian Norton, founder and managing director of Respond Global and the former global head of WHO’s Emergency Medical Team Initiative warned the 185-odd asset owner attendees with a collective $11 trillion assets under management that a long road to normal still lies ahead.

    “We’ve never seen a pandemic end in less than two years,” he said."

    I know Ian well (messaged him to let him know he was being quoted on boards :)).

    He would have been a strong advocate of a traffic light scale of restrictions for towns/regions at the start of all this..rather than the full scale lockdown. believes educating the public is absolutely key (Liberia’s fight against Ebola). Simple Practices everyone buys in to that mean the virus is contained without the sledgehammer of a lockdown. Easier said than done in the western world of course!!

    He did a bit of work with Kinsale on how to open up safely over the summer too as he’s from the area.

    I believe it’s the ‘global’ normal he’s talking about in the piece above, and the fact that third world countries will lag behind on vaccine supply. You would hope individual countries will experience a large degree of internal normality once the vaccines take hold (that’s my two cents), but if it’s still circulating in certain countries, the pandemic continues, with spikes/waves appearing around the globe.


  • #1209
    landofthetree
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,464 ✭✭✭landofthetree


    Le Bruise wrote: »
    I know Ian well (messaged him to let him know he was being quoted on boards :)).

    He would have been a strong advocate of a traffic light scale of restrictions for towns/regions at the start of all this..rather than the full scale lockdown. believes educating the public is absolutely key (Liberia’s fight against Ebola). Simple Practices everyone buys in to that mean the virus is contained without the sledgehammer of a lockdown. Easier said than done in the western world of course!!

    He did a bit of work with Kinsale on how to open up safely over the summer too as he’s from the area.

    I believe it’s the ‘global’ normal he’s talking about in the piece above, and the fact that third world countries will lag behind on vaccine supply. You would hope individual countries will experience a large degree of internal normality once the vaccines take hold (that’s my two cents), but if it’s still circulating in certain countries, the pandemic continues, with spikes/waves appearing around the globe.

    Which will probably lead to mutations.

    Cant see the Irish government banning flights to stop mutations reaching here.


  • #1210
    Endintheclowns
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 138 ✭✭Endintheclowns


    wadacrack wrote: »
    Flights resuming to the UK is insanity too. Tragedy unfolding.

    Mindboggling stupidity from our government. Combined with yesterday's farce of measures i really think they have absolutely no legitimacy now.

    It's like they are ignoring all the medical advice and just being pig headed.


  • #1211
    Pitch n Putt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 581 ✭✭✭Pitch n Putt


    Thelonious Monk wrote: »
    what kind of ICU numbers are we able to manage?

    Zero is the magic number that we can manage. Anything else and it’s the end of the world scenario they way it’s being reported anyways.


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  • #1212
    What Username Guidelines
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    Le Bruise wrote: »
    I know Ian well (messaged him to let him know he was being quoted on boards :)).

    He would have been a strong advocate of a traffic light scale of restrictions for towns/regions at the start of all this..rather than the full scale lockdown. believes educating the public is absolutely key (Liberia’s fight against Ebola). Simple Practices everyone buys in to that mean the virus is contained without the sledgehammer of a lockdown. Easier said than done in the western world of course!!

    He did a bit of work with Kinsale on how to open up safely over the summer too as he’s from the area.

    I believe it’s the ‘global’ normal he’s talking about in the piece above, and the fact that third world countries will lag behind on vaccine supply. You would hope individual countries will experience a large degree of internal normality once the vaccines take hold (that’s my two cents), but if it’s still circulating in certain countries, the pandemic continues, with spikes/waves appearing around the globe.

    Agree - While I've been of the more-pessimistic mindset in terms of how long this will last overall, I do think a lot of us in the western world will be at 90% normality long before it's considered 'over' as a pandemic.


  • #1213
    beansie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14 ✭beansie


    Redordeadqwwer wrote: »
    Negative PCR test 72 hours before the flight, better than nothing but will probably be ineffective too.

    Especially as the UK allows self-swabbing - pretty high chances that some will swab incorrectly.


  • #1214
    What Username Guidelines
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    Pitch n Putt wrote: »
    Zero is the magic number that we can manage. Anything else and it’s the end of the world scenario they way it’s being reported anyways.

    I'm not sure if many have called it 'the end of the world' tbh, and I'm also not sure you fully grasp the potential effects of lack of availability of healthcare to both covid and non-covid patients.


  • #1215
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »
    Yeah that's what I said...'its grand so and the hospitals are overreacting.'
    My very words.

    Your only data points seem to be hysteria. Hard to compare and do trend analysis when it's always the worst it can be. Goldengirl says we are already at '10 times worse'.

    Good luck ;)

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=115832814&postcount=1101

    Ok fair enough but you are trying to say that this its just another normal year. While I agree normal is pretty bad, we've never had to close schools to prevent hospital becoming overwhelmed. We are not even at the bad part yet I'm afraid. The constant comparison with flu and normal years is tiring and misleading. It is much worse for almost all age categories.

    Pick a study any study that shows flu is comparable to covid in terms of IFR? It's 10X worse for anyone over 60.

    https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1311764842160644096?s=20


  • #1216
    Pitch n Putt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 581 ✭✭✭Pitch n Putt


    What Username Guidelines wrote: »
    I'm not sure if many have called it 'the end of the world' tbh, and I'm also not sure you fully grasp the potential effects of lack of availability of healthcare to both covid and non-covid patients.

    With a population of 5 million and all the billions pumped into the system we should be well able to cope with 300 icu beds and not be panicked when we get to 50 beds occupied.

    It’s a shambles really.


  • #1217
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    SuperRabbit wrote: »
    Did you read the article i sent?

    Huge numbers of people, something like a quarter of people, who recover at home at home still have heart abnormalities months later. Overall prevalence of long covid is like 4%, depending on how you define it,

    This is very dangerous for young people and can have long term impacts on their health, after this we will have a lot more people who are working part time or unable to work because of CFS, unless the CFS that covid is causing goes away, and we don't know if it will
    They really need to stop going on about long COVID, there is not enough of a timeframe - it's post-viral effects and people with other viruses can also take a good while to recover.


  • #1218
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Pitch n Putt wrote: »
    With a population of 5 million and all the billions pumped into the system we should be well able to cope with 300 icu beds and not be panicked when we get to 50 beds occupied.

    It’s a shambles really.
    Nobody panicked at 50 in ICU. That's through the prism of NPHET and their public health remit. I actually see no harm in using the current levels to alarm people into modifying their behaviour.


  • #1219
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    Pitch n Putt wrote: »
    With a population of 5 million and all the billions pumped into the system we should be well able to cope with 300 icu beds and not be panicked when we get to 50 beds occupied.

    It’s a shambles really.

    No one is panicked when 50 icu beds become occupied.

    It's when you've 42 in ICU, and less than a week later you've 89 that the panic sets in. It is not about the current numbers at all.

    A year in and you're missing the basics


  • #1220
    Pcgamer
    Closed Accounts Posts: 139 ✭✭Pcgamer


    Yesterday
    All my troubles seemed so far away
    Now it looks as though they're here to stay
    Oh, I believe in yesterday
    Suddenly
    I'm not half the man I used to be
    There's a shadow hangin' over me
    Oh, yesterday came suddenly


  • #1221
    xhomelezz
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,094 ✭✭✭xhomelezz


    According to journal.ie yesterday's figures on icu beds:

    According to the HSE there are 287 fully-staffed public ICU beds. Yesterday 255 of the adult critical care beds were occupied.


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  • #1222
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    The problem with a higher infection ratio is that many more people need hospital treatment. This has broken quite a few systems so far. Our unmitigated spread over December the Christmas period is now translating into a systematic threat to the health service. All the routine stuff stopped, next step is triaging those with most chance of surviving.

    Although triaging is normal what's not normal is that a lot of people will die who wouldn't have otherwise died had the system not been overwhelmed. Comparisions with flu are unhelpful at best and dangerous at worse. Can't believe it's fine to still spout it on here nearly a year in.

    While I think it is very important to be civil on a public forum I also think it's important to not spread disinformation that exasperates an already fragile situation. Getting lists of excuses to get around restrictions is a close second IMHO. We have too many cute whores here.

    538657.png


  • #1223
    9db3xj7z41fs5u
    Closed Accounts Posts: 172 ✭✭9db3xj7z41fs5u


    Pitch n Putt wrote: »
    With a population of 5 million and all the billions pumped into the system we should be well able to cope with 300 icu beds and not be panicked when we get to 50 beds occupied.

    It’s a shambles really.

    I don’t think that you understand what an ICU bed is. An ICU “bed” requires the following: 1. Highly specialised staff expertise: a. A consultant anaesthetist to oversee it-> 5 years of medical school and 7 years post-graduate training, exams, etc, b Anaesthetic registrars->5 years of medical school and minimum 3-4 years of postgraduate experience and exams, c-> ICU nurses-> 4 years of nursing school and minimum 2 years post-graduate experience. 2. Highly specialised equipment: this is extremely costly and not available on the ward, to monitor and treat the patient. 3. Intensive staff numbering-> 1:1 nurse: patient ratio and 1:6 doctor:patient ratio. 4. Specialised procedures: the ability to ventilate a patient, to perform dialysis on the patient, the ability to support their heart. ICU beds are very limited in any country. This is not an Irish problem.

    The cost-associated with all the above is astronomical. Also, there is, in every country only a limited set of resources. It is not surprising that the healthcare system is struggling to accommodate the extra 80+. Also, the fatigue of the healthcare staff is a huge issue. ICU is an exhausting speciality.

    People think of the car crashes and burns needing ICU. But if somebody has major cancer surgery, they will need critical care.

    I take my hat off to those people in critical care who are dealing with the strain of the 80+ patients, on top of their usual workload. They are working under gruelling conditions. I am certain that they will facilitate the extra numbers, and I hope that the right recognition goes to them for this.


  • #1224
    SeaBreezes
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,554 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes


    Pitch n Putt wrote: »
    Zero is the magic number that we can manage. Anything else and it’s the end of the world scenario they way it’s being reported anyways.

    Best hurlers are always on the fence..


  • #1225
    Jim_Hodge
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,155 ✭✭✭✭Jim_Hodge


    Pitch n Putt wrote: »
    Zero is the magic number that we can manage. Anything else and it’s the end of the world scenario they way it’s being reported anyways.

    That's an absurd comment. Where has anybody called low ICU number's, or indeed the current numbers, the end of the world?


  • #1226
    What Username Guidelines
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    Egypt Drab Varnish wrote: »
    I don’t think that you understand what an ICU bed is. An ICU “bed” requires the following: 1. Highly specialised staff expertise: a. A consultant anaesthetist to oversee it-> 5 years of medical school and 7 years post-graduate training, exams, etc, b Anaesthetic registrars->5 years of medical school and minimum 3-4 years of postgraduate experience and exams, c-> ICU nurses-> 4 years of nursing school and minimum 2 years post-graduate experience. 2. Highly specialised equipment: this is extremely costly and not available on the ward, to monitor and treat the patient. 3. Intensive staff numbering-> 1:1 nurse: patient ratio and 1:6 doctor:patient ratio. 4. Specialised procedures: the ability to ventilate a patient, to perform dialysis on the patient, the ability to support their heart. ICU beds are very limited in any country. This is not an Irish problem.

    The cost-associated with all the above is astronomical. Also, there is, in every country only a limited set of resources. It is not surprising that the healthcare system is struggling to accommodate the extra 80+. Also, the fatigue of the healthcare staff is a huge issue. ICU is an exhausting speciality.

    People think of the car crashes and burns needing ICU. But if somebody has major cancer surgery, they will need critical care.

    I take my hat off to those people in critical care who are dealing with the strain of the 80+ patients, on top of their usual workload. They are working under gruelling conditions. I am certain that they will facilitate the extra numbers, and I hope that the right recognition goes to them for this.

    Exactly.

    It is somewhat comparable, though many multiples more serious, to those who said it was a 'shambles' that we didn't have enough snow ploughs in the country in 2010/2011 for our once-in-a-blue-moon snowfall.

    The HSE have made mis-steps since this started, for sure, but an ICU bed isn't a mattress and bedframe. It's also a global issue so we can't just throw money at a problem to entice those qualified to come to Ireland and spin up as much capacity as thought.

    I do know that they have been attempting to provide extra training to nurses to attempt to semi-qualify them, but as Egypt Drab Varnish points out, there's a lot to learn.

    I presume those calling it all a shambles would react similarly if someone passed away in an ICU bed being cared for by a nurse not fully qualified to give an ICU standard of care.


  • #1227
    splashuum
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 519 ✭✭✭splashuum


    16th January 2020 had 94 people in ICU, 609 admitted within a week with flu.
    We now currently have approx 80 people in ICU and ZERO cases of the flu.
    We're actually in a better position going by the hse statistics.


  • #1228
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    is_that_so wrote: »
    They really need to stop going on about long COVID, there is not enough of a timeframe - it's post-viral effects and people with other viruses can also take a good while to recover.
    Yep.

    Chronic fatigue syndrome following an illness, especially a virus, is a well known issue that has been around long before covid.
    While widespread covid infections mean more individuals with this syndrome, it needs to not be treated as some magical new devastating illness that we should be freaking out about.

    The typical time for it to resolve is days to weeks, with a reasonable cohort requiring a couple of months, and a statistically tiny number persisting for years.

    If you've ever had a bad 'flu that put you in bed for a couple of days and left you feeling "not right" for 2-4 weeks after, then you get the gist of CFS and long-covid.

    It's easy to get turned around when you've got percentages flying around, but the data suggests that around 4% of symptomatic people of people will develop long-Covid (though the risker is higher if you're admitted to hospital) and of that 4%, around a third will develop mild organ damage.

    If we run on the assumption that about 50% of cases are asymptomatic (we just don't know), then if you catch covid your chances of having long covid are around 2% and chances of developing *mild* organ impairment is about 0.66%.


  • #1229
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    splashuum wrote: »
    16th January 2020 had 94 people in ICU, 609 admitted within a week with flu.
    We now currently have approx 80 people in ICU and ZERO cases of the flu.
    We're actually in a better position going by the hse statistics.

    Did it double a week later, and again a week after that?

    It never ceases to amaze me that people can't get their heads around what is going on. It's been on our screens every day for a year now.
    How do you not understand?

    Like, have you any questions for those of us that do?


  • #1230
    kilkenny31
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 701 ✭✭✭kilkenny31


    splashuum wrote: »
    16th January 2020 had 94 people in ICU, 609 admitted within a week with flu.
    We now currently have approx 80 people in ICU and ZERO cases of the flu.
    We're actually in a better position going by the hse statistics.

    Shhhhhhhhh not allowed be positive. I will say tho the 94 people in ICU was possibly a combined total not just from flu. The 80 or so being reported now is just with covid so doesn't give the full picture.


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  • #1231
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,943 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    splashuum wrote: »
    16th January 2020 had 94 people in ICU, 609 admitted within a week with flu.

    94 people in ICU in total, or, 94 people in ICU with the flu?

    There are a lot more people in ICU at the moment non-Covid.


This discussion has been closed.
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