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Sweden avoiding lockdown

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  • Options
    #6902
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,938 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    kaymin wrote: »
    Who cares about the death to confirmed cases when it's a meaningless number as has been pointed out ad finitum by numerous posters. I get jaded reading your posts.


    It not compulsory, so no need to read them.



    Getting a feeling though when it comes to the various case fatality rate for countries, and a one fits all assumed infection fatality rate you are well aware which is meaningless.


  • Options
    #6903
    greyday
    Registered Users Posts: 679 ✭✭✭greyday


    Its starting to look like Sweden won't have any choice but to see their herd immunity through if they don't halve infections in the next 3-(6)weeks.


  • Options
    #6904
    ArthurDayne
    Registered Users Posts: 1,708 ✭✭✭ArthurDayne


    charlie14 wrote: »
    Other than this persistent running around the world looking for figures to make Sweden`s look good while ignoring those of their next door neighbours, what exactly has Sweden`s no lockdown strategy achieved that some here were preaching a few months ago was the only way to go as there would be no vaccines.

    They are now using lockdown.
    Herd immunity was a complete bust. Contrary to Tegnell`s predictions on a second wave, whatever immunity they may have got is certainly not noticeable from their case numbers.
    Financially there has been no benefits.Their GDP Q2 is nothing to write home about, and from their own Central Bank projections with this second wave that is not going to get any better.
    Their consumer spending figures was no better during their no lockdown.
    Neither were their unemployment figures, and now with them using lockdown I doubt they have improved.
    The - no vaccine/Sweden will not need one - has Sweden with help from a backdoor deal being the most likely European to begin vaccinations.

    So what exactly has this Swedish strategy achieved that some here were preaching that it was what all countries should be doing ?

    To be fair Charlie, in the globalised world a country could have wonderfully well-formulated economic policy but it would still struggle in the face of a global lockdown. Saying that Sweden’s economic fortunes this year have been “nothing to write home about” seems to be an over-simplification. Ultimately, they maintained a level of freedom and allowed people as far as possible to continue having a life and making a living. In doing so, they have a population less ground down by restrictions and can be flexible in bringing in less / more restriction as need dictates.

    Again and again and again, the question has been posed: what has their strategy “achieved”? It is a subtle changing of the goalposts from where the common wisdom stood in March — a subtle shift in the narrative from the fact that original fears centred not on the vista of mainly life expectancy-aged people dying in elevated numbers this year, but the all-out debilitation of the health service for a sustained period. It was never a question of achievement, because people were always going to die from this, it was a question of whether the wholesale locking down of society for months on end was a proportionate response versus the risk.

    If it was simply a question of saving as many lives as possible, the advocates of lockdown would be back this time next year advocating restrictions to prevent the spread of infection to the old and sick. They won’t be — and that stands testament to the fundamental point you are ignoring — it was never merely about saving lives, it was about proportionality.


  • Options
    #6905
    biko
    Registered Users Posts: 81,223 ✭✭✭✭biko


    tobefrank321 wrote: »
    The only way you can measure success or failure is deaths per million.
    To measure this way Swe vs Ire.
    biko wrote: »
    Sweden and Ireland now similar official death numbers - 260 per million.
    Ireland 260.64
    Sweden 260.53
    That was in May

    Now;
    Ireland 415.47
    Sweden 649.56

    Sweden is currently 9th in the world on deaths per million (total)
    Untitled.png
    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/


  • Options
    #6906
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users Posts: 4,470 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    biko wrote: »
    To measure this way Swe vs Ire.

    That was in May

    Now;
    Ireland 415.47
    Sweden 649.56

    Sweden is currently 9th in the world.
    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

    One lie after another from you.

    Did you even bother to click on your own link?

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

    Sweden is 22nd. 23rd if Irans real numbers are included. Sweden have just been passed by Slovenia and Romania are on course to pass them this week.

    At least 3 other lockdown countries are queuing up to pass them out such as Poland, Hungary and Bulgaria while Croatia will not be long behind.

    Between Charlie accusing another poster wrongly of using confirmed cases as a measurement of mortality and you posting tables months out of date and passing them off as today both of you are clutching at straws.


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    #6907
    Bit cynical
    Registered Users Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭Bit cynical


    biko wrote: »
    Sweden is currently 9th in the world on deaths per million (total)
    Untitled.png
    Where's Spain on that list? Or Italy? Or Belgium? and that's just the EU countries.


  • Options
    #6908
    biko
    Registered Users Posts: 81,223 ✭✭✭✭biko


    tobefrank321 wrote: »
    One lie after another from you.
    My screenshot show clearly my result the date etc, why do you argue with the site and your own eyes?
    Why are you so abusive?
    Bit cynical wrote: »
    Where's Spain on that list? Or Italy? Or Belgium? and that's just the EU countries.
    This is strange, Belgium should definitely be in the top countries.
    There are more countries than EU. You can see Ecuador, Panama etc if you look again.


  • Options
    #6909
    Bit cynical
    Registered Users Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭Bit cynical


    Biko, I see what you've done. You went to the second page of the list and then forgot you were on the second page and counted down from the top. That is why you thought Sweden was 9th.


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    #6910
    timsey tiger
    Registered Users Posts: 1,768 ✭✭✭timsey tiger


    biko wrote: »
    My screenshot show clearly my result the date etc, why do you argue with the site and your own eyes?
    Why are you so abusive?

    This is strange, Belgium should definitely be in the top countries.
    There are more countries than EU. You can see Ecuador, Panama etc if you look again.

    Hi Biko, your screen shot is showing countries 14 - 22. So 13 countries above what you're showing, giving 13+9 =22 for Sweden. It says so at the bottom left of your screen shot.


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    #6911
    copeyhagen
    Registered Users Posts: 4,528 ✭✭✭copeyhagen


    charlie14 wrote: »

    They are now using lockdown.
    Herd immunity was a complete bust. Contrary to Tegnell`s predictions on a second wave, whatever immunity they may have got is certainly not noticeable from their case numbers.
    Financially there has been no benefits.Their GDP Q2 is nothing to write home about, and from their own Central Bank projections with this second wave that is not going to get any better.
    Their consumer spending figures was no better during their no lockdown.
    Neither were their unemployment figures, and now with them using lockdown I doubt they have improved.
    The - no vaccine/Sweden will not need one - has Sweden with help from a backdoor deal being the most likely European to begin vaccinations.

    So what exactly has this Swedish strategy achieved that some here were preaching that it was what all countries should be doing ?

    lockdown, bars close a 10pm.. nine months after our first lockdown. i would call them a success.

    swedens economy will no doubt be in a better sate than ours.

    my friend lives in uppsala, has been socialising with friends and family like normal for nine months.

    the toll of our yoyo lcokdowns, both mentally, and financially will show itself soon enough.

    i would take swedens approach a million times over ours.


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    #6912
    whippet
    Registered Users Posts: 7,674 ✭✭✭whippet


    copeyhagen wrote: »

    i would take swedens approach a million times over ours.

    I initially didn't agree with Sweden's approach - however as time has gone on and from chatting to my brother who is about 45 mins north of Uppsala - i'd take their approach any time over ours.

    He was panicking back in April thinking his new business was going to fail if a lockdown came in to place - he has lived a practically normal life for the year.

    He is fairly rural so normal day to day life you don't interact with more than one or two people outside of the house hold.


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    #6913
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users Posts: 2,147 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    There's little value in comparing other country's death figures with Sweden during a wave due to the disingenuous way they report on them.

    The last update from Sweden that I can see was 16 deaths on Nov 27th. It's likely to actually be about 70 per day and still rising, but we won't know for sure until Sweden eventually puts out that data.


  • Options
    #6914
    Bit cynical
    Registered Users Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭Bit cynical


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    There's little value in comparing other country's death figures with Sweden during a wave due to the disingenuous way they report on them.

    The last update from Sweden that I can see was 16 deaths on Nov 27th. It's likely to actually be about 70 per day and still rising, but we won't know for sure until Sweden eventually puts out that data.
    They reported 59 deaths on the 27th.


  • Options
    #6915
    biko
    Registered Users Posts: 81,223 ✭✭✭✭biko


    Bit cynical wrote: »
    Biko, I see what you've done. You went to the second page of the list and then forgot you were on the second page and counted down from the top. That is why you thought Sweden was 9th.
    timsey tiger wrote: »
    Hi Biko, your screen shot is showing countries 14 - 22. So 13 countries above what you're showing, giving 13+9 =22 for Sweden. It says so at the bottom left of your screen shot.
    Crap, thanks guys for finding the problem!


  • Options
    #6916
    timsey tiger
    Registered Users Posts: 1,768 ✭✭✭timsey tiger


    biko wrote: »
    Crap, thanks guys for finding the problem!

    I think it is kind of pointless arguing with these people.

    What is their point? Country A is more deaths per mil. than Sweden and has lockdowns.

    Do they really think that country A would be doing detter if it didnt have lockdowns?

    The inability to take any short term pain is mind blowing. We coud all be Australia, if we had the balls.


  • Options
    #6917
    bb1234567
    Registered Users Posts: 5,496 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    whippet wrote: »
    I initially didn't agree with Sweden's approach - however as time has gone on and from chatting to my brother who is about 45 mins north of Uppsala - i'd take their approach any time over ours.

    He was panicking back in April thinking his new business was going to fail if a lockdown came in to place - he has lived a practically normal life for the year.

    He is fairly rural so normal day to day life you don't interact with more than one or two people outside of the house hold.

    By now surely we must have learnt that this is not feasibly applicable everywhere.
    In the last few months Iran also tried Swedish light touch approach
    https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/covid-iran-health-system-us-sanctions-virus-rages

    Who knows how it would have worked in Ireland but Sweden is more of an exception than a rule in terms of relatively low excess deaths with these kind of rules in place


  • Options
    #6918
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users Posts: 2,147 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    whippet wrote: »
    I initially didn't agree with Sweden's approach - however as time has gone on and from chatting to my brother who is about 45 mins north of Uppsala - i'd take their approach any time over ours.

    He was panicking back in April thinking his new business was going to fail if a lockdown came in to place - he has lived a practically normal life for the year.

    He is fairly rural so normal day to day life you don't interact with more than one or two people outside of the house hold.

    Sweden's approach has suited some people. Indeed the majority of Swede's might still be in favour of Tegnell's strategy. I'm not sure.

    However it's been an unending nightmare for a very significant cohort - the vulnerable and those who have vulnerable friends or family members.


  • Options
    #6919
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,938 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    ArthurDayne wrote: »
    To be fair Charlie, in the globalised world a country could have wonderfully well-formulated economic policy but it would still struggle in the face of a global lockdown. Saying that Sweden’s economic fortunes this year have been “nothing to write home about” seems to be an over-simplification. Ultimately, they maintained a level of freedom and allowed people as far as possible to continue having a life and making a living. In doing so, they have a population less ground down by restrictions and can be flexible in bringing in less / more restriction as need dictates.

    Again and again and again, the question has been posed: what has their strategy “achieved”? It is a subtle changing of the goalposts from where the common wisdom stood in March — a subtle shift in the narrative from the fact that original fears centred not on the vista of mainly life expectancy-aged people dying in elevated numbers this year, but the all-out debilitation of the health service for a sustained period. It was never a question of achievement, because people were always going to die from this, it was a question of whether the wholesale locking down of society for months on end was a proportionate response versus the risk.

    If it was simply a question of saving as many lives as possible, the advocates of lockdown would be back this time next year advocating restrictions to prevent the spread of infection to the old and sick. They won’t be — and that stands testament to the fundamental point you are ignoring — it was never merely about saving lives, it was about proportionality.


    To be even fairer Arthur I pointed out from the outset that in a globalised world expecting one country to gain a GDP benefit during a pandemic was inane. Especially with that country`s own Central Bank and it`s independent economic think-tank projections based on the first wave and a second wave which Sweden now has.
    My point was being rubbished back then by at least one of those who have thanked your post.
    Memories are getting shorter and more selective around here of late it appears.


    I have also posted that lockdowns are not just about ensuring health services are not over-run. They also save lives. Reduce the level of infections and you reduce the number of deaths.




    As to my original question. What exactly has Sweden`s strategy achieved?


    There was no lockdown because they had no faith in a vaccine being developed. They are now using lockdown, and we have not just one but a number of vaccines, where ironically due to a side deal it now means Sweden will be one of the first countries to begin vaccinations.

    They have gained no GDP advantage. Their consumer spending was no better when others were in lockdown and their unemployment figures were no better either


    Chasing herd immunity was not just a failure, but as they have now admitted immoral. The supposed immunity they were going to gain from not locking down during the first wave, on their present numbers if it even exists is negligible, and their deaths are 4 times that of their Nordic neighbours combined.


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    #6920
    greyday
    Registered Users Posts: 679 ✭✭✭greyday


    117 deaths notified today with over 17K infections (covers period from Saturday to Monday), whatever they are trying to reduce infections is not working so far.


  • Options
    #6921
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,938 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    copeyhagen wrote: »
    lockdown, bars close a 10pm.. nine months after our first lockdown. i would call them a success.

    swedens economy will no doubt be in a better sate than ours.

    my friend lives in uppsala, has been socialising with friends and family like normal for nine months.

    the toll of our yoyo lcokdowns, both mentally, and financially will show itself soon enough.

    i would take swedens approach a million times over ours.


    For Q2 during the worst of the first wave Ireland outperformed Sweden`s GDP by 40%. With this second wave Sweden`s own Central Bank projections are pretty grim. Their unemployment figures are no better and their consumer spending was no better than Denmark who used lockdown.


    As Uppsala`s regional authority was the first to bring in extra restrictions as soon as they had the power to do so, I`m not sure they view socaialising there the same way as you and your friend do.



    Pretty slim argument that Sweden`s strategy was a success because bars can stay open until 10p.m. imo, but each to their own priorities.


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    #6922
    Bit cynical
    Registered Users Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭Bit cynical


    greyday wrote: »
    117 deaths notified today with over 17K infections (covers period from Saturday to Monday), whatever they are trying to reduce infections is not working so far.
    Deaths still rising albeit at a slower rate than before. Daily cases appear to be stabilizing with about the same number as this time last week.


  • Options
    #6923
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,938 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Bit cynical wrote: »
    Deaths still rising albeit at a slower rate than before. Daily cases appear to be stabilizing with about the same number as this time last week.


    Sweden`s Public Health Authority are predicting new cases will not peak until mid December.


  • Options
    #6924
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users Posts: 2,147 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    Bit cynical wrote: »
    Deaths still rising albeit at a slower rate than before. Daily cases appear to be stabilizing with about the same number as this time last week.

    We have no idea about the actual death rate. All you can do is make projections from older data.


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    #6925
    greyday
    Registered Users Posts: 679 ✭✭✭greyday


    It is likely they will be well over 7K deaths by next Tuesday.


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    #6926
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users Posts: 4,470 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    greyday wrote: »
    117 deaths notified today with over 17K infections (covers period from Saturday to Monday), whatever they are trying to reduce infections is not working so far.

    They don't post deaths on fridays either so it covers Friday - Monday or 4 days - average of 29 deaths a day. Weekends are traditionally low deaths so tomorrow we are likely to see some more deaths from the weekend. Infections are similar to last weekend.


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    #6927
    biko
    Registered Users Posts: 81,223 ✭✭✭✭biko


    As I've said before, since decades Sweden have had approx 90K dead each year.

    But what is odd is that Sweden is still on target for yearly deaths, maybe even a bit low.
    According to this page Sweden currently are at 81K for 2020
    https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/

    But, I as reported before - Sweden records highest death tally in 150 years in first half of 2020
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/19/sweden-records-highest-death-tally-in-150-years-in-first-half-of-2020
    51,405 Swedes died in the first six-month period, a higher number than in any year since 1869, when 55,431 people died, partly as a result of a famine.


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    #6928
    Seweryn
    Registered Users Posts: 4,487 ✭✭✭Seweryn


    Bit cynical wrote: »
    Deaths still rising albeit at a slower rate than before. Daily cases appear to be stabilizing with about the same number as this time last week.
    It doesn't look like the deaths are rising, they have been rather average in Sweden for months.

    Actually, the whole 2020 has been an average year for their death rates and the overall numbers show that. Similar to Ireland, you may observe up to say +/- 8-10 % variation between a good and a bad year, and this year is not much different.
    We can wait for the whole year report, but I wouldn't expect much to change.

    128776452_385388869377837_6100521177963385138_n.jpg?_nc_cat=105&ccb=2&_nc_sid=ae9488&_nc_ohc=ENkET-xqiqoAX9t-19y&_nc_ht=scontent-dub4-1.xx&oh=f57922ac4e4bff61af63fd7d59dd6c94&oe=5FEAD930


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    #6929
    greyday
    Registered Users Posts: 679 ✭✭✭greyday


    They posted 59 deaths on Friday, don't know if they are deaths from sometime Thursday to the same time Friday or not though.
    The graph shows for the last few weeks that the deaths reported on the Tuesday are obviously large and they cover multiple days, then Wednesday is lower than next two days, from Wednesday to Friday the death rate climbs, not sure if its the way they get notified or if Tegnell just likes to end the week well.


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    #6930
    Ginger n Lemon
    Registered Users Posts: 3,447 ✭✭✭Ginger n Lemon


    Seweryn wrote: »
    It doesn't look like the deaths are rising, they have been rather average in Sweden for months.

    Actually, the whole 2020 has been an average year for their death rates and the overall numbers show that. Similar to Ireland, you may observe up to say +/- 8-10 % variation between a good and a bad year, and this year is not much different.
    We can wait for the whole year report, but I wouldn't expect much to change.

    128776452_385388869377837_6100521177963385138_n.jpg?_nc_cat=105&ccb=2&_nc_sid=ae9488&_nc_ohc=ENkET-xqiqoAX9t-19y&_nc_ht=scontent-dub4-1.xx&oh=f57922ac4e4bff61af63fd7d59dd6c94&oe=5FEAD930

    Top analysis as always.


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    #6931
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users Posts: 4,470 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    charlie14 wrote: »
    For Q2 during the worst of the first wave Ireland outperformed Sweden`s GDP by 40%. With this second wave Sweden`s own Central Bank projections are pretty grim. Their unemployment figures are no better and their consumer spending was no better than Denmark who used lockdown.


    As Uppsala`s regional authority was the first to bring in extra restrictions as soon as they had the power to do so, I`m not sure they view socaialising there the same way as you and your friend do.



    Pretty slim argument that Sweden`s strategy was a success because bars can stay open until 10p.m. imo, but each to their own priorities.

    They didn't outperform Sweden's GDP by 40%. They outperformed their growth by 40% which is a different thing entirely.

    You've used this bogus statistic before.

    If Country A grows by 1% and country B grows by 2%, would you say country B outperformed country A by 100%? Of course not, you'd say it outperformed country A by 1%.

    The grasping at straws is getting desperate now.


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