Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

Peter Flynt wrote: »

It wasn't falling.

We were averaging a 1000+ cases per day.
Level 5 began the day before the mid term break.

Let's stick to the facts and not stuff you've made up in your head.

Right so the 7 day positivity rate was 7.3% on the 17th, when the schools closed on the 23rd it was 6.6%, hence it was already falling before schools closed and continued to fall all the way to the 14th of November until it rose for the next few days.

Now that lines up with something happening at the end of midterm break. Its reduced since with schools open.

So theres the facts, I can point you to the data showing this if you want so that you know its not made up, quite far from made up.

Oh and cases were already dropping before the schools closed, the week before they closed 1k plus per day, in the days after they were going down, schools closing wouldn't have impact that so soon. Easy to look it up.

But sure you'll probably say its all made up because the numbers don't actually agree with your opinion.

Level 3 and household restrictions we're feeding into the numbers when the schools closed.

Heres the cold hard data, check it out for yourself

[Url] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107064/coronavirus-cases-development-ireland/ [/url]

[Url] https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/datasets/f6d6332820ca466999dbd852f6ad4d5a_0/data?page=25 [/url]

That is a typical attitude that's out there unfortunately

You could just as easily be burying friends and relations in the new year after not seeing them for the last Christmas you get a chance

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Right so the 7 day positivity rate was 7.3% on the 17th, when the schools closed on the 23rd it was 6.6%, hence it was already falling before schools closed and continued to fall all the way to the 14th of November until it rose for the next few days.

Now that lines up with something happening at the end of midterm break. Its reduced since with schools open.

So theres the facts, I can point you to the data showing this if you want so that you know its not made up, quite far from made up.

Oh and cases were already dropping before the schools closed, the week before they closed 1k plus per day. Easy to look it up.

Schools closed on Friday 23rd October.

Ireland's 14 day average number of cases in the week leading up to 23rd October:

Saturday 17th October: 791.86 cases per day
Sunday 18th October: 857.50 cases per day
Monday 19th October: 894.14 cases per day
Tuesday 20th October: 953.93 cases per day
Wednesday 21st October: 993.64 cases per day
Thursday 22nd October: 1033.64 cases per day [Day Level 5 started]
Friday 23rd October: 1045.07 cases per day

So cases were not dropping.
In fact they were rising.

But, of course, you're not interested in the facts.

BringBackMick wrote: »

"It's no use having a good Christmas if you're burying friends and relations in the new year."

That's pretty blunt. Was this in a radio/tv interview or a publication?

BringBackMick wrote: »

"It's no use having a good Christmas if you're burying friends and relations in the new year."

jesus christ, that's seriously out of order if he said that

Peter Flynt wrote: »

Schools closed on Friday 23rd October.

Ireland's 14 day average number of cases in the week leading up to 23rd October:

Saturday 17th October: 791.86 cases per day
Sunday 18th October: 857.50 cases per day
Monday 19th October: 894.14 cases per day
Tuesday 20th October: 953.93 cases per day
Wednesday 21st October: 993.64 cases per day
Thursday 22nd October: 1033.64 cases per day [Day Level 5 started]
Friday 23rd October: 1045.07 cases per day

So cases were not dropping.
In fact they were rising.

But, of course, you're not interested in the facts.

I've just given you the facts and the links, I suggest reading them, key metrics were already reducing and case numbers followed soon after.

The schools closing had no impact on case numbers in the days around and after they closed.

The positivity rate was already reducing.

7 day positivity began reducing on 21st October, before schools closed.

You wouldn't have seen an impact of L5 until about 10 days later, so why from the 26th did case numbers themselves start coming down ?? Nothing to do with schools, cases announced would already have been seeded prior to them closing on 23rd.

There's absolutely no point in trying to have a rational discussion on this because you seem to want to throw some personal digs. I've given you the links, they show positivity reducing before schools closed, your argument hence isn't accurate that closing the schools caused the reduction.

The increase in positivity ties in with cases actually seeded over midterm.

stephenjmcd wrote: »

I've just given you the facts and the links

You gave made up facts and you gave no links.

The likes of you are the worst of posters.

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I study exponential growth, so very much know, cheers for that thought though.

I don't believe you and it's based on your previous postings where you were so wrong so many times about numbrsd.

stephenjmcd wrote: »

If you go back and see my reply to you you'll see the links there infront of you.

But to save you the hassle here they are again, look at the dates there and see when the positivity rate started dropping.

Good man keep up the personal digs

https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/datasets/f6d6332820ca466999dbd852f6ad4d5a_0/data?page=22

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107064/coronavirus-cases-development-ireland/

So you copied and pasted two websites.

Do you know how to even reference a link?

The "positivity rate" is utterly irrelevant if more people are going for tests and being diagnosed negative. This is a good thing as people were doing as they were required.....taking a test (many working in schools) if they had any symptoms. I took a test myself in October as a precaution so as to prevent myself from infecting others if I had the virus.

The real issue is the number of positive tests as declared and issued by NPHET on the gov.ie website.

I have provided those stats as have kept a close eye on those figures daily.

Peter Flynt wrote: »

So you copied and pasted two websites.

Do you know how to even reference a link?

I inserted a link into a reply directing you to a website that shows statistics. Not my fault if you missed them.

The links back up the viewpoint.

How else do you want me to give you a link to a website by carrier pigeon??

Either way your original argument that the schools dropped cases wouldn't have been possible given they dropped literally a few days after schools closed.

Anyway I'll take the decision to leave you at it now and won't bother engaging any further, your clearly not interested in any sort of discussion simply trying to throw enough manure in the hope of it sticking

Gotten very hostile in here on the last page or so

Tony's worry index will be going through the roof

Eod100 wrote: »

They're paving the way for restrictions already next year https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1331287725916483584?s=19

No shock there, probably need one for a few weeks while trying to roll out a vaccine to at risk groups

Eod100 wrote: »

They're paving the way for restrictions already next year https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1331287725916483584?s=19

I'd love to know Leo's definition of a 'short period'?

Eod100 wrote: »

They're paving the way for restrictions already next year https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1331287725916483584?s=19

To be honest the whole winter has been very predictable.

Drumpot wrote: »

By the time restrictions are increased again more information will be available re vaccine and hopefully at worst we will be looking at another 6-8 week lockdown with April being our target of where we will hopefully begin to winddown the most prohibitive lockdowns for good.

I'm hoping it doesn't go on that long, but I agree it's going to be into 2021. The vaccines are coming, and hopefully they will make a big impact - it'll just take a bit of time.

We're again having what I consider to be daft discussions about opening pubs and so on. It's not going to happen, and dangling reopening in front of businesses knowing full well they will probably have to shut again is completely unfair. But this will be the third time we've done this so clearly the politicians never learn. The pubs now want a guarantee that if they reopen they will not have to close - perfectly fair request, impossible for the government to give and they should be saying that now.

If I was a business owner in indoor hospitality, I'd be all over my industry body to get compensation from the government to allow them remain closed until perhaps March 2021, and only plan to possibly reopen from that point with progressive lifting of restrictions as the vaccines arrive and are deployed.