Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

Cork2021 · 24-11-2020 04:51PM

Excellent numbers.
The north’s testing figures are a joke surely? 800 tests that’s nothing

KrustyUCC · 24-11-2020 04:53PM

seamus wrote: »

Maybe 40-50. Any attempt to guess the backlog has always been hit-and-miss. One day last week there were 100 new cases above the swab number when no backlog was expected.

The upper limit on cases today is 300, IMO. But guessing at the actuall number on a daily basis is banned

The 252 yesterday was the lowest number since September 27

Even allowing for 40-50 of a 'backlog' we should be under that number hopefully

Going down the right path

seamus · 24-11-2020 04:54PM

Cork2021 wrote: »

The north’s testing figures are a joke surely? 800 tests that’s nothing

Maybe some delay at labs or something that caused very few results to come through. The north hasn't been testing enough, but 800 tests in one day would be a 66% reduction. Has to be some other issue.

Deeper Blue · 24-11-2020 05:02PM

The numbers the last few weeks have provided concrete evidence that schools aren't a huge driver of spread

Great news

TomSweeney · 24-11-2020 05:04PM

Stark wrote: »

No wonder they're ****ed at the moment.

F*cked !!

I know no one with the disease, life is back to pretty much normal for me, working from home, take the kids to school, wear a mask - but rather that then everywhere closed.
Shops open, bars/restaurants open from today.

Getting on with life and living, time to stop hiding in terror under your bed.

big syke · 24-11-2020 05:07PM

El Sueño wrote: »

The numbers the last few weeks have provided concrete evidence that schools aren't a huge driver of spread

Great news

A few posters have been pretty quiet about this.

I wonder what spin they put on it?

What Username Guidelines · 24-11-2020 05:08PM

seamus wrote: »

Maybe 40-50. Any attempt to guess the backlog has always been hit-and-miss. One day last week there were 100 new cases above the swab number when no backlog was expected.

The upper limit on cases today is 300, IMO. But guessing at the actuall number on a daily basis is banned

I said yesterday I'd love to see <270 to get to a new recent low, but 252 surprised me. Given we're into smaller numbers now, backlogs should be relatively smaller, so fingers crossed now for a lower number than yesterday and a continued trend down. <2% is excellent though.

eagle eye · 24-11-2020 05:09PM

The numbers going down is great news but I'm concerned with relaxing restrictions too early. We could go from this level to where we were in mid October before Christmas. I'd have much preferred to keep level 5 in place until the second week of December and make sure we were in a good place at Christmas.

innuendo141 · 24-11-2020 05:10PM

seamus wrote: »

Great numbers for today

190 positive swabs out of 10,051. 1.89% positivity (!)

7-day now 2.75%

I'm more concerned about the Worry Index to be honest, when are the figures updated?

big syke · 24-11-2020 05:10PM

eagle eye wrote: »

The numbers going down is great news but I'm concerned with relaxing restrictions too early. We could go from this level to where we were in mid October before Christmas. I'd have much preferred to keep level 5 in place until the second week of December and make sure we were in a good place at Christmas.

But mid October was all the schools ? Right?

bennyineire · 24-11-2020 05:11PM

eagle eye wrote: »

The numbers going down is great news but I'm concerned with relaxing restrictions too early. We could go from this level to where we were in mid October before Christmas. I'd have much preferred to keep level 5 in place until the second week of December and make sure we were in a good place at Christmas.

So stay in lockdown to stop going into another lockdown, that's some sound logic there

big syke · 24-11-2020 05:12PM

bennyineire wrote: »

So stay in lockdown to stop going into another lockdown, that's some sound logic there

we need to go deeper...Lockception

KrustyUCC · 24-11-2020 05:12PM

NPHET wanted six weeks

They're going to get six weeks and now a tiered slow opening

Retail has to open on the 1st to be viable into next year

If NPHET recommend an extension of restrictions the government rightfully should ignore that advice

NunianVonFuch · 24-11-2020 05:12PM

Great news! With the Gov bulling ahead to go to Level 3 next week before NPHET even meet to discuss anything we could yet snake into the sub-100s maybe a few days into Level 3 before the relaxed restrictions work their way through the system.

eagle eye · 24-11-2020 05:14PM

bennyineire wrote:

So stay in lockdown to stop going into another lockdown, that's some sound logic there

Which would you prefer, a few weeks now and back in level 5 before Christmas or stay at level 5 another 18 days and be certain it'll be good at Christmas?
I'm not saying it will happen but protecting Christmas would be my no.1 goal.

KrustyUCC · 24-11-2020 05:16PM

We won't be back in level 5 before Christmas

Not a chance of that

The economic damage that extra 18 days would cause would be very high

Over €500m going on the six weeks lockdown costing €1.5billion

That's before the cost of businesses closing permanently

eagle eye · 24-11-2020 05:17PM

big syke wrote:

But mid October was all the schools ? Right?

No it wasn't all the schools but I'm still concerned about that.
If we get down to double digit figured then I'll be less concerned about the schools.
I've never made an outright claim that the schools are the cause of everything. I've always stated that there's no definitive proof either way. That is still the case. Get down to double digit cases and then it looks like the schools are not a big issue.

ACitizenErased · 24-11-2020 05:18PM

Anyone who thinks we'll be in level 5 before Christmas is utterly delusional

NunianVonFuch · 24-11-2020 05:19PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Anyone who thinks we'll be in level 5 before Christmas is utterly delusional

Even ignoring the economic factors and the holiday, since it takes 2 weeks or so for changes to show an effect there's no way we'll have spiked enough to hit the panic button before at least mid-January.

eagle eye · 24-11-2020 05:20PM

ACitizenErased wrote:

Anyone who thinks we'll be in level 5 before Christmas is utterly delusional

Well you don't understand exponential growth so you aren't qualified to make that assertion.

ACitizenErased · 24-11-2020 05:23PM

eagle eye wrote: »

Well you don't understand exponential growth so you aren't qualified to make that assertion.

I study exponential growth, so very much know, cheers for that thought though.

big syke · 24-11-2020 05:25PM

eagle eye wrote: »

No it wasn't all the schools but I'm still concerned about that.
If we get down to double digit figured then I'll be less concerned about the schools.
I've never made an outright claim that the schools are the cause of everything. I've always stated that there's no definitive proof either way. That is still the case. Get down to double digit cases and then it looks like the schools are not a big issue.

Ah get off the stage.

For months you have been banging the school spreading the virus drum.

You even said case numbers were dropping while schools were closed. You nailed your colours to the mast at least have the self respect to stick to your guns or admit schools may not be spreading the virus the way you think.

Ficheall · 24-11-2020 05:26PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I study exponential growth, so very much know, cheers for that thought though.

Dunno if I'd be waving that stats module around like that.

giveitholly · 24-11-2020 05:26PM

eagle eye wrote: »

The numbers going down is great news but I'm concerned with relaxing restrictions too early. We could go from this level to where we were in mid October before Christmas. I'd have much preferred to keep level 5 in place until the second week of December and make sure we were in a good place at Christmas.

Reckon we should stay in level 5 until April,sure what harm is it doing,we will all be grand!!!

Peter Flynt · 24-11-2020 05:27PM

El Sueño wrote: »

The numbers the last few weeks have provided concrete evidence that schools aren't a huge driver of spread

Great news

We are averaging 345 cases per day (over the past seven days) after 33 days of the country effectively shut down at level 5.

On September 1st, when schools were fully reopened, we were averaging 199 cases per day (over the previous 7 days from Aug 25-31) with a virtually fully functioning economy

Great news indeed.

So much for your "concrete evidence".

bilston · 24-11-2020 05:27PM

pauldry wrote: »

They only tested 800 odd not 4 or 5000 like previous days

We could do that and our numbers would be 25

It's not some sort of competition!

Its great news that numbers have come down from 1,000 a day to under 100, albeit it is one day...

Spudman_20000 · 24-11-2020 05:27PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Anyone who thinks we'll be in level 5 before Christmas is utterly delusional

And anyone that thinks we'll ever go back to level 5, and the economic suicide that would be, is delusional too.

What Username Guidelines · 24-11-2020 05:28PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

The economic damage that extra 18 days would cause would be very high

I dont know enough about economics - but is this really a massive factor? When I've asked in the past, people shout back "Thirty Billion", "Depression", etc..

But I recall in March when we extended lockdown from 3 weeks to 5 weeks, it was basically said "that's it, lots of pubs won't open ever again". As time went by, this has been repeated, and lots of pubs in Dublin havent opened at all since March.

I understand some have gone to the wall at this stage, but the commentary always seems to be they're hanging on by fingernails. I'm not saying they're having a perfect aul time, and any opening would be welcomed by them, but with an end in sight (vaccine) whats an extra couple of months if they've survived this long vs the alternative?

This isnt meant to be a wind-up, I'd actually like to understand it some more. I got pretty anxious in March that the knock on effects from people out of work would be catastrophic, and perhaps we're somewhat shored up by PUP and we wont feel it until next year or even later, in which case, what does that look like?

bodhrandude · 24-11-2020 05:29PM

TomSweeney wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BrandonStraka/status/1331061473368567811?s=20

Fair play to these police, these people out after curfew are literally murderers .

Where is this from, Dakota? Its like something straight out of Handmaids Tale.

podgeandrodge · 24-11-2020 05:29PM

Cork2021 wrote: »

Majority won’t be able according to the independent, the local takeaway won’t be allowed supply them. That’s what some pubs did to get open

Through some legislative change??

Food works or doesn't work. (I'm not convinced and think they should just limit numbers per gathering).

But why the feck would they care where the food came from?

Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

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