Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

eagle eye wrote: »

Was some official talking about easing restrictions?
If we went to level 3 now we'd be in dire straits before Christmas.

And before we decide to go back to a lower restriction level the retail shops have to have a plan in place to restrict the number of people entering their premises.
There needs to be a serious plan for all businesses in place to try and make a lower level work.

Again?

iamwhoiam wrote: »

Level 3 with one household visiting or not ?
According to what site you read L 3 has different rules under vistors

It'll all be announced later in the week.

L3 has a number of sub restrictions within it that can be applied such as varying levels of household restrictions

JDD wrote: »

Tell me this now. In mid October Northern Ireland were finding over 1k cases a day, with about a quarter of our population. How were their hospitals not overrun two weeks later? Is it just that NHS hospitals have better capacity, or what?

I have been thinking about this too, I guess they must have more hospitals. They have had weeks of smilar numbers to us with a lot less population I think the numbers in hospital & ICU were similar too.
Could it be because they dont have private hopitals ? in our system a certain amount of health care is always in private so dont need as much capacity in public.

John.Icy wrote: »

I actually don't think they are. The HSE figure of 292 at 8pm last night is from 29 acute sites (including CHIs). I don't see any mention of St. Columcilles on the list.

Do there numbers feed into another hospital's tally? Maybe someone knows what he story is here or I am missing something in the daily ops.

You're right.

There are 48 acute hospitals in the HSE's list, but only 29 of them covered in the daily operations update.

Either they're rolling them up, or not counting them at all.

Perhaps only those hospitals with Covid ICUs are in the operations update?

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Level 3 was confirmed by the Taoiseach today, official announcement coming Thursday/Friday

It sounds like we'll already know exactly what's coming well before the announcement.

They'll probably announce a 2-3 week plan though. Don't want to be telling people there will be an easing of restrictions around Xmas week, they might decide to skip ahead a bit :pac:

Another announcement then around 10/11 December to lay out the plan for the weeks ahead, before a New Year's address (around 2nd Jan).

JDD wrote: »

Tell me this now. In mid October Northern Ireland were finding over 1k cases a day, with about a quarter of our population. How were their hospitals not overrun two weeks later? Is it just that NHS hospitals have better capacity, or what?

Who says they aren't overrun. A lot of non covid care got shut down. They suffered through. They had a lot of deaths. Probably as many extra non covid deaths as extra covid deaths but it will take time for those to be counted up.

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Who says they aren't overrun. A lot of non covid care got shut down. They suffered through. They had a lot of deaths. Probably as many extra non covid deaths as extra covid deaths but it will take time for those to be counted up.

Well, I didn't see any coverage in the newspapers of temporary morgues or people being treated in corridors or temporary ICU beds being used. Even with elective surgeries being cancelled (I presume they kept open cancer care and screenings?) I can't see how that afforded them such a massive cushion. I realise they had more than their fair share of deaths, but I'm more talking about hospitals being overrun rather than deaths.

For example, in mid October when the Level 5 decision was made, we were finding approx 1k cases a day. If we had the same rate of infection as NI, that would have been about 5k a day.

NPHET were saying at the time that if the same increase infections continued - and hospitalisations that inevitably follow two weeks later - we would have to start cancelling elective procedures at the end of October and would be at full surge capacity by the end of November. Beyond that, it would be tent hospitals and fridge trucks and mattresses on the floor presumably - not that they said that in so many words.

Northern Ireland had the equivalent of 4/5k cases a day for weeks. Even while cancelling elective procedures, how in God's name do they have that level of extra capacity that they were able to cope?

humberklog wrote: »

I've been watching Denmark in relation to Ireland (fairly comparable EU countries). For the first time since August Denmark has overtaken Ireland in infection rates. For the last week or so they've been posting infections about 2.5x ours. Their death rates are still very, very low 789 to our 2023.

As comparable countries it doesn't look like Ireland is doing too bad or is it that Denmark is doing something wrong?

What's their positivity rate? That's probably a better measure of how we are doing, respectively.

JDD wrote: »

Then they are doing better than us, in both protecting their elderly and controling the spread of the virus.

Fortunately for them. Unfortunately for us.

Why? Ireland's positivity rate is lower than Denmark

JDD wrote: »

Well, I didn't see any coverage in the newspapers of temporary morgues or people being treated in corridors or temporary ICU beds being used. Even with elective surgeries being cancelled (I presume they kept open cancer care and screenings?) I can't see how that afforded them such a massive cushion. I realise they had more than their fair share of deaths, but I'm more talking about hospitals being overrun rather than deaths.

For example, in mid October when the Level 5 decision was made, we were finding approx 1k cases a day. If we had the same rate of infection as NI, that would have been about 5k a day.

NPHET were saying at the time that if the same increase infections continued - and hospitalisations that inevitably follow two weeks later - we would have to start cancelling elective procedures at the end of October and would be at full surge capacity by the end of November. Beyond that, it would be tent hospitals and fridge trucks and mattresses on the floor presumably - not that they said that in so many words.

Northern Ireland had the equivalent of 4/5k cases a day for weeks. Even while cancelling elective procedures, how in God's name do they have that level of extra capacity that they were able to cope?

On a per capita basis they would have twice the icu capacity as us.

There's been suspension of a lot more than elective procedures. Some fairly important operations were cancelled.

I believe there's was 60 cases where kidney transplants would have been scheduled (kidney available and all) as of last week where the donated organs were not used because there wasn't icu capacity as a contingency if the operation went wrong.

106 cancer related surgeries cancelled in Belfast NHS Trust as of 3 weeks ago.

Those are just two statistics that stuck with me from reading the news media about Northern Ireland.

JDD wrote: »

Well, I didn't see any coverage in the newspapers of temporary morgues or people being treated in corridors or temporary ICU beds being used. Even with elective surgeries being cancelled (I presume they kept open cancer care and screenings?) I can't see how that afforded them such a massive cushion. I realise they had more than their fair share of deaths, but I'm more talking about hospitals being overrun rather than deaths.

For example, in mid October when the Level 5 decision was made, we were finding approx 1k cases a day. If we had the same rate of infection as NI, that would have been about 5k a day.

NPHET were saying at the time that if the same increase infections continued - and hospitalisations that inevitably follow two weeks later - we would have to start cancelling elective procedures at the end of October and would be at full surge capacity by the end of November. Beyond that, it would be tent hospitals and fridge trucks and mattresses on the floor presumably - not that they said that in so many words.

Northern Ireland had the equivalent of 4/5k cases a day for weeks. Even while cancelling elective procedures, how in God's name do they have that level of extra capacity that they were able to cope?

Need for hospitilisation is not a constant across all age groups or health status. 1000 cases in people under 30 might lead to no one needing hospital but 1000 cases in over 70s might leads to 100 people needing hospital treatment (just an e.g.). The Sept/Oct surge was initially driven by younger age groups, so we had a lot of lead time before we really noticed anything in the hospitals. Once community spread occurs for a sufficient amount of time it gets into the older groups and the more vulnerable. Here in the south we had domination of cases in younger brackets then eventually we began having issues with older brackets, such as outbreaks occurring in nursing homes once again. That's when your deaths are going to start going up and your need for hospital treatment.

Pretty sure the likes of QUB and other colleges were causing big issues up North in terms of the absolute case numbers. A lot of those people were never going to add to the hospital tallies. May not be the only factor. Either ways, was there not talk of of the ROI taking in some NI patients? So maybe they were getting close to being overwhelmed.

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

On a per capita basis they would have twice the icu capacity as us.
.

They have 5.3 ICU beds per 100k while we have 6.5.

They have by far the lowest level of ICU beds in the UK.

Interesting that Denmark has a population just slightly larger than ours and carries out 6-7 times more daily tests than we do.