Share Picks 2020

Nemeses2050 · 18-11-2020 06:58PM

Rigolo - I remember you mentioning you were in Barrick gold, what's your view on it? you still long on it?

FSM and GOLD are down this week, lowest they've been in a month...Assume people diversifying from metals and putting in cyclicals.

Liamo_mu · 18-11-2020 07:09PM

Wombatman wrote: »

https://twitter.com/TODAYshow/status/1329042312559779841

What price did you buy at mate? Was looking myself. Long-term it should go up again for sure.

RIGOLO · 18-11-2020 07:10PM

Nemeses2050 wrote: »

Rigolo - I remember you mentioning you were in Barrick gold, what's your view on it? you still long on it?

FSM and GOLD are down this week, lowest they've been in a month...Assume people diversifying from metals and putting in cyclicals.

Yeah I posted about it, I played it as a hedge, exited with some gains, then Buffett bought in and thought he knows something I dont and felt Id left some on the table but seems that was pure hedge on his part as hes now cut that GOLD position. BARRICK is very well run and all this Covid stuff has actually forced management to do a better job and create leaner more efficient less waste organisations.

Looking at the VIX volatility index all this talk of vaccines is definitely calming things down. So I think playing Gold is a risky move (I know.. says the man who nearly went in large on a bitcoin miner today) if your expecting gains or a flight to gold . There are far less risky plays in the cyclicals as they pick up. I think you and many others have already built out positions in them .

And also theres no harm in not trading anything, keeping some cash on the side . If theres some stocks you believe in long term, then use the side money to build a bigger position in them on each of their red days , every stock has red days.

p to the e · 18-11-2020 07:11PM

rudders wrote: »

What are people's opinion on Walgreens? Stocks seems to have a constant decline this year. Announcements of Amazon getting into the pharma industry it's taking even more of a hit. Any thoughts ?

I think the drop in Walgreens due to Amazon entry into pharma is overblown. Amazon will not be able to prescribe/deliver what are called Schedule II class drugs. These include Ritalin and strong pain medications, adderall, codeine. People with multiple meds that include these Schedule II drugs may not want to deal with multiple vendors.

Also Walgreens has recently partnered up with Doordash to deliver medication kind of like a Deliveroo. I'm not sure of the planned delivery times for Amazon pharma but some people may not want to wait a day or two for their meds.

Add to that a nice dividend.

Nemeses2050 · 18-11-2020 07:30PM

RIGOLO wrote: »

Yeah I posted about it, I played it as a hedge, exited with some gains, then Buffett bought in and thought he knows something I dont and felt Id left some on the table but seems that was pure hedge on his part as hes now cut that GOLD position. BARRICK is very well run and all this Covid stuff has actually forced management to do a better job and create leaner more efficient less waste organisations.

Looking at the VIX volatility index all this talk of vaccines is definitely calming things down. So I think playing Gold is a risky move (I know.. says the man who nearly went in large on a bitcoin miner today) if your expecting gains or a flight to gold . There are far less risky plays in the cyclicals as they pick up. I think you and many others have already built out positions in them .

And also theres no harm in not trading anything, keeping some cash on the side . If theres some stocks you believe in long term, then use the side money to build a bigger position in them on each of their red days , every stock has red days.

Thanks for sharing your views, agree gold and metals in general will be risky play at this time...You know I have been a bit heavy on cyclicals

yep I'm gonna keep a bit of powder dry..

littlevillage · 18-11-2020 07:36PM

littlevillage wrote: »

I took the opportunity to get my BEP down a bit. Think they simply have to recover eventually, especially when things get back to 'normality'.

The backdrop here is that

- various US states are being forced to legalize gambling. (They are broke and need the taxes)

- GAN directors were buying GAN shares at these kind of prices a few months back.

- Also Flutter (Paddy Power) who are one of GAN's biggest customers might take a fancy to simply buying them out if the GAN sp collapses.

Bought a traunche at $15 yesterday, out at $17 today. No biggie, but 13% in my pocket is better than in some other plebs pocket.

virginmediapls · 18-11-2020 07:53PM

littlevillage wrote: »

Bought a traunche at $15 yesterday, out at $17 today. No biggie, but 13% in my pocket is better than in some other plebs pocket.

Just wondering how it works - do you pay all that CGT at once then, or do a separate form every time you sell?

Havent had to do it before, have some profit to take this year though - wahey !

virginmediapls · 18-11-2020 07:55PM

Went in on 4D pharma a while back and regret it big time now. Just holding it out of FOMO but don't think they are looking like making shapes anytime soon.

Wombatman wrote: »

https://twitter.com/TODAYshow/status/1329042312559779841

As a side-note, I really wouldn't like to have to get into one of those planes. If they are re-certified, I'll do my best to avoid them. Have heard awful things about Boeings engineering in recent years.

Thargor · 18-11-2020 08:55PM

TSLA off again, madness.

DutchYurt · 18-11-2020 09:13PM

I keep DCA'ing Edesa but it just keeps going down. Tested 5$ a few times seems to have good resistance. I hope that's the bottom. I'm nearing a 30% loss overall on it..

Fastly thankfully back to making goesn, just another 10$ and I'll be evens!

Liamo_mu · 18-11-2020 09:42PM

Wonder what caused Zoom to shoot up just there? But annoyed cause I had been watching ball week bethinking it might be one to get.

But that's investing always a million options you consider but don't take

RobAMerc · 18-11-2020 09:53PM

anyone know why Regeneron is doing so poorly ?

Thargor · 19-11-2020 12:12AM

People probably think the new vaccines are going to eat its new antivirals lunch. Great company though, big pipeline and not doing that bad.

Shedite27 · 19-11-2020 10:07AM

Liamo_mu wrote: »

Wonder what caused Zoom to shoot up just there? But annoyed cause I had been watching ball week bethinking it might be one to get.

But that's investing always a million options you consider but don't take

New York announced about that time that they were closing schools again. Lockdown = Zoom

p to the e · 19-11-2020 10:27AM

virginmediapls wrote: »

Went in on 4D pharma a while back and regret it big time now. Just holding it out of FOMO but don't think they are looking like making shapes anytime soon.

4D is one for a long term hold. They have a NASDAQ listing on the horizon which could be huge. Everything in the pharma industry is dependent on whether the stuff they make works or not so there's always a risk but also potentially huge rewards. If you think they are worth investing in and believe in their product then stick with them.

https://www.valuethemarkets.com/2020/11/17/the-second-gen-covid-19-stocks-offering-explosive-opportunities-4d-pharma/

RIGOLO · 19-11-2020 11:07AM

For those interested in broader systemic views of the markets Michael Cembalest JPMC has 2 great articles on what he calls 'The Armageddonists ' .. these are the bears who have for a decade or more predicted a global recession , but history has been written on their comments and they were ALL WRONG !

So moral of the story is

1) Not everyone gets it right
2) Even the best get it wrong
3) Buisness journalists in broadsheets (non business specific tomes) are 90% terrible at their jobs particularily in the Irish press. They wouldnt know how to cover or inform a reader on global macro economic issues if their lives depended on it.
4) Equities have outperformed safe havens goverment and corporate bonds considerably since all these predicitons of doom.
5) Even in the depths of the COVID dip , many of these commentators got it WRONG AGAIN in their predictions.
6) And for many reasons Mister Cembalast sees no reason why this bull run should not continue. If you exclude airlines, travel and energy related stocks the fundamentals including earnings , free cash flow and EPS are actually up across the sectors. So a very specific few sectors have born the brunt of the impact .

I enjoy reading the quotes ..
Now if only we had journalists who next time they interview one of these guys or write an article on them will mention the elephants in the room regarding their subjects.

May 20, 2010 Nouriel Roubini "There are some parts of the global economy that are now at the risk of a double-dip recession. From here on I see
things getting worse." - CBS

January 7, 2016 George Soros
"Global markets are facing a crisis and investors need to be very cautious, billionaire George Soros told an
economic forum in Sri Lanka on Thursday..."China has a major adjustment problem," Soros said. "I would say it
amounts to a crisis. When I look at the financial markets there is a serious challenge which reminds me of the
crisis we had in 2008." - Bloomberg

November 9, 2016 Paul Krugman
"It really does look like President Donald J. Trump, and markets are plunging....So we are very probably looking at a
global recession, with no end in sight. I suppose we could get lucky somehow. But on economics, as on everything
else, a terrible thing has just happened." - New York Times

I guess Nobel Prizes dont mean as much as they used too, and calling economics a science was always goign to be a stretch.

Anyways deep in the Covid crisis they gaffed again

March 24, 2020 Nouriel Roubini
“With the COVID-19 pandemic still spiraling out of control, the best economic outcome that anyone can hope for is
a recession deeper than that following the 2008 financial crisis... The risk of a new Great Depression, worse than
the original — a Greater Depression — is rising by the day.” - Published note on Project Syndicate

April 1, 2020 George Soros "We're going to have the worst bear market in my lifetime." - Business Insider

Interesting reading

Part 1 Nov 2019
https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-wm-aem/global/pb/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/the-armageddonists.pdf

Part 2

https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-wm-aem/global/pb/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/the-armageddonists-revisited.pdf

RIGOLO · 19-11-2020 11:32AM

Nemeses2050 wrote: »

CRSR and PLTR - on a good run...thought after the earnings both would drop...what do I know.

got out of CRSR at 29...now it's feckin 35

Thats a tough one, I feel for you, you really did spot it early and made a great call to invest.
Just seems to be the way markets are manipulated these days, good companies run up into earnings, then report good numbers, Wall St knocks it back to scare the weak hands and then they hover up cheap shares and rerate it and let it run to its true potential. Been on the recieving side of that too often, its been goign on for years, now if only Jim Cramer had done a video in 2006 talking about how hedge funds make that happen..:rolleyes:..

I think CRSR is still worth investing in.
We are facing into Q4 , Black Friday deals, presents gifts and tech is all that the younger generation want. Everyones a blogger these days and needs lots of peripherals . I think it and PLTR will run more, just waiting on some dips to add to the holding. So 2021 theres no reason to believe CRSR wont report even better numbers.

Also I went back to my roots with some old school statistical modeling , even asked the wife to help my run some CRSR numbers thru a predictive analysis Matlab program I wrote, and got Google AI involved via my Rasperry PI to crunch some numbers .
Whilst that was running on a small bitcoin mining farm in the garage and all the lights were flickering on and off with the power surge, I asked myself is there an easier way.. so I went on Amazon and tried to buy some Corsair kit and alot of it is not in stock cos of demand with delays on shipping.

You see it doesnt think a PhD to work this sheeeettt out, sometimes all you need is to look in the right places, any idiot can do that.

Nemeses2050 · 19-11-2020 11:45AM

Ah Roubini Perma-bear....but in fairness to him he was right about Financial crisis in 2008...I reckon some of the economists just go by the economic theories...real world have so many variances...

Mach 3 · 19-11-2020 11:55AM

RIGOLO wrote: »

For those interested in broader systemic views of the markets Michael Cembalest JPMC has 2 great articles on what he calls 'The Armageddonists ' .. these are the bears who have for a decade or more predicted a global recession , but history has been written on their comments and they were ALL WRONG !

So moral of the story is

1) Not everyone gets it right
2) Even the best get it wrong
3) Buisness journalists in broadsheets (non business specific tomes) are 90% terrible at their jobs particularily in the Irish press. They wouldnt know how to cover or inform a reader on global macro economic issues if their lives depended on it.
4) Equities have outperformed safe havens goverment and corporate bonds considerably since all these predicitons of doom.
5) Even in the depths of the COVID dip , many of these commentators got it WRONG AGAIN in their predictions.
6) And for many reasons Mister Cembalast sees no reason why this bull run should not continue. If you exclude airlines, travel and energy related stocks the fundamentals including earnings , free cash flow and EPS are actually up across the sectors. So a very specific few sectors have born the brunt of the impact .

I enjoy reading the quotes ..
Now if only we had journalists who next time they interview one of these guys or write an article on them will mention the elephants in the room regarding their subjects.

I guess Nobel Prizes dont mean as much as they used too, and calling economics a science was always goign to be a stretch.

Anyways deep in the Covid crisis they gaffed again

Interesting reading

Part 1 Nov 2019
https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-wm-aem/global/pb/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/the-armageddonists.pdf

Part 2

Good post, RIGOLO. You are on the right track.

90% of people would rather be wrong with the crowd than wrong on their own. The other 10% don't care if they are wrong.

I'm not so sure what point you are trying to make, but I am getting the impression you are very bullish equities. I am of the opposite view at the moment and would be interested to hear why people think it is a good idea to be invested in equities over the next 6 months or any other asset classes for that matter.

dxhound2005 · 19-11-2020 12:28PM

Mach 3 wrote: »

Good post, RIGOLO. You are on the right track.

90% of people would rather be wrong with the crowd than wrong on their own. The other 10% don't care if they are wrong.

I'm not so sure what point you are trying to make, but I am getting the impression you are very bullish equities. I am of the opposite view at the moment and would be interested to hear why people think it is a good idea to be invested in equities over the next 6 months or any other asset classes for that matter.

You won't be wrong anyway if all asset classes go down and you are not invested in any of them. Gold is supposed to go up if shares go down.

Nemeses2050 · 19-11-2020 01:06PM

RIGOLO wrote: »

Thats a tough one, I feel for you, you really did spot it early and made a great call to invest.
Just seems to be the way markets are manipulated these days, good companies run up into earnings, then report good numbers, Wall St knocks it back to scare the weak hands and then they hover up cheap shares and rerate it and let it run to its true potential. Been on the recieving side of that too often, its been goign on for years, now if only Jim Cramer had done a video in 2006 talking about how hedge funds make that happen..:rolleyes:..

I think CRSR is still worth investing in.
We are facing into Q4 , Black Friday deals, presents gifts and tech is all that the younger generation want. Everyones a blogger these days and needs lots of peripherals . I think it and PLTR will run more, just waiting on some dips to add to the holding. So 2021 theres no reason to believe CRSR wont report even better numbers.

Also I went back to my roots with some old school statistical modeling , even asked the wife to help my run some CRSR numbers thru a predictive analysis Matlab program I wrote, and got Google AI involved via my Rasperry PI to crunch some numbers .
Whilst that was running on a small bitcoin mining farm in the garage and all the lights were flickering on and off with the power surge, I asked myself is there an easier way.. so I went on Amazon and tried to buy some Corsair kit and alot of it is not in stock cos of demand with delays on shipping.

You see it doesnt think a PhD to work this sheeeettt out, sometimes all you need is to look in the right places, any idiot can do that.

I agree with holiday season, it definitely has legs to run...will nibble some if it dips....Great call on PLTR...

Folks interested in UK market should look at Capita - CPI...it's a diversified group but mainly outsourcing, providing BPM services etc...before Covid-19 it was on a path of re-structuring it's business but covid disrupted it...however with vaccine on horizon it has great scope. current price is 42P

Timmaay · 19-11-2020 01:44PM

NNDM back over 5$ (premarket), I'm very bullish on this company at the minute,they have about a 2year lead on their competitors.

https://youtu.be/9xzRymjXLKA

RIGOLO · 19-11-2020 02:20PM

responses to a few posts mixed in here, great to see healthy discussion

Mach 3 wrote: »

Good post, RIGOLO. You are on the right track.

90% of people would rather be wrong with the crowd than wrong on their own. The other 10% don't care if they are wrong.

I'm not so sure what point you are trying to make, but I am getting the impression you are very bullish equities. I am of the opposite view at the moment and would be interested to hear why people think it is a good idea to be invested in equities over the next 6 months or any other asset classes for that matter.

Dont read too much into that post whether I am bullish equities, I think thats for another debate. FWIW I am, but everything in this game is personal, so my bullish time frame is 5 years out , I dont need the money tied up in equities but others might and have a different timeframe and need the market to support their future plans in 12-18 months, so bullish 5 years is no good for the person who needs it in 2021.

The point I was really making there is dont listen too much to anyone cos everyone gets it wrong plenty times, and there have been 'Armageddonists' (great term) saying its all going to crash for decades.

As to why theres reason to be bullish, its all outlined in the article.
Mr Cembalast makes a good case that the fundamentals supported many companies in this crisis and will do the same going forward. I freely admit I didnt expect so many companies to be able to report such good numbers in the midst of a global pandemic. If someone told you 2 years ago, in 2020 everyone would be wearing a mask, no schools open and no flights or holidays but the Dow would break 30,000 , everyone would say your mad to think the market could survive that impact.
But its happened, many companies are fundamentally healthy and emerging markets and regions are expanding so theres a good case for being bullish, bar
a mink escaping from some 'fur farm' and infecting the planet with a new covid variant.

One of my takeaways from the articles is . You just never know how the market will react, or you just never know what life will throw up next, thats what makes this such an interesting area to be involved in, you just never know , its like a sitcom where the plot line is unpredictable but we spend our days trying to predict it and sometimes get it right.

As to PLTR , theres a poster here 'saganist' who I think made the earliest call on them, have to give him credit.

Roubini - wasnt the only one to call the crash

Some refer to Bitcoin as Gold 2.0 , its the new goto 'commodity' if equities drop or interest rates go negative. The gold:bitcoin ratio has been trending positive for BTC, lets see if the millenials keep it alive as they seem to prefer a virtual coin, although Im old school and prefer a gold one, maybe I need to get with it.

DutchYurt · 19-11-2020 04:23PM

Nemeses2050 wrote: »

Folks interested in UK market should look at Capita - CPI...it's a diversified group but mainly outsourcing, providing BPM services etc...before Covid-19 it was on a path of re-structuring it's business but covid disrupted it...however with vaccine on horizon it has great scope. current price is 42P

I got tipped when they were 27 and got out at 32. If I'm not mistaken there were rumours of a buy out by a private equity firm. I only dabble a small amount but certainly keeping an eye

DutchYurt · 19-11-2020 04:26PM

Timmaay wrote: »

NNDM back over 5$ (premarket), I'm very bullish on this company at the minute,they have about a 2year lead on their competitors.

https://youtu.be/9xzRymjXLKA

Thats quite the graph they have there, any idea what happened in June and Oct 2019 like a brick was put into their SP

Shedite27 · 19-11-2020 04:32PM

Nemeses2050 wrote: »

@Shedite27 - got some GDRX, I understand Amazon moving into their Domain will be damaging but thought yesterdays drop was overreaction, what you reckon?

The CEO was on CNBC today talking through Amazon's move. I'm more bullish now after hearing what he had to say, basically that GoodRx still offers far more and bigger discounts than Amazon, and their model is quite different.

Up 10% today (still down 20% for the week)

Nemeses2050 · 19-11-2020 05:15PM

exactly what I was wishing for, company to make a statement

...hopefully it'll go back to where it was at the start of the week

19-11-2020 05:37PM

cmssjone wrote: »

At the risk of sounding a bit thick, can I ask why people believe 4d pharmacy is a good stock to hold..........

My reasoning is that they are working on treatments that might potentially be used in conjunction with an MSD blockbuster drug. The current SP is tiny relative to that potential. I bought most of my shares at 60% of what they are now so I'm not sitting on a loss and hoping for the best.

DutchYurt · 19-11-2020 06:04PM

Edesa has dropped below the 5$ resistance with a new low today of 4.89$ and I'll be honest, I'm now starting to worry.. It's been roughly a month since they released news about FDA clearance for Phase 2 so news should be coming soon. I've been saying should alot..

I can't make sense as to why it is still going down, I learned yesterday that a hedge fund bought 120k shares at an avg of 8$ in Q3 (owning about 1.28% of the company) whilst there has been insider buying a few weeks back for 4$ but yet it keeps dripping down.

I'll hold my weak hands for now but if it tests the 4.80 level I can't keep DCA'ing from lack of funds so I'll reconsider the advice I read awhile ago of watering the flowers and cutting the weeds at a 30% loss.

Any one else thoughts on Edesa?

Bob Harris · 19-11-2020 06:23PM

DutchYurt wrote: »

I'll hold my weak hands for now but if it tests the 4.80 level I can't keep DCA'ing from lack of funds so I'll reconsider the advice I read awhile ago of watering the flowers and cutting the weeds at a 30% loss.

Any one else thoughts on Edesa?

Are you dollar cost averaging or just averaging down?

Share Picks 2020

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