Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

Ficheall · 17-11-2020 11:02AM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Maybe, just maybe, the public isn't at fault? Not sure if some on here are able to wrap their heads around the fact that NPHET and the HSE are about as incompetent as any random person on the street.

NPHET and the HSE have f*cked up in parts for sure, but no matter how badly they f*cked up, if all the public tried really hard not to catch or spread the virus, then it would be beaten. Similarly, even if NPHET and HSE did absolutely everything perfectly, the public still have to play their part.

The public are in no way blameless. A large contingent of them are, but the entirety of it, no.

copeyhagen · 17-11-2020 11:04AM

Ficheall wrote: »

NPHET and the HSE have f*cked up in parts for sure, but no matter how badly they f*cked up, if all the public tried really hard not to catch or spread the virus, then it would be beaten. Similarly, even if NPHET and HSE did absolutely everything perfectly, the public still have to play their part.

The public are in no way blameless. A large contingent of them are, but the entirety of it, no.

blame the public. blame 5 million for 100 in town..

2020, the year of the blame game, hold everyone accountable except the policy makers...

we really are sheep.

s1ippy · 17-11-2020 11:04AM

Maestro85 wrote: »

Slightly off topic but I wonder what are the numbers for re-infection? Or is this something we will only be able to properly deduce months down the line when looking back (given the demand and issues for current day to day data collection)?

Here's the latest on Boris, I'm guessing he doesn't have it and his self isolation is just virtue signalling as he'd know by now if he has it again or not. Like, they'd be testing him continuously.
https://www.shropshirestar.com/news/uk-news/2020/11/15/boris-johnson-self-isolating-after-contact-with-covid-19-case/

As you can see here from this article:
https://www.dn.se/sthlm/150-aterinsjuknade-utreds-lakaren-andreas-smittades-tva-ganger/

Translated in theLocal.se, there are at least 150 cases of reinfection in Sweden that they're trying to downplay. Fact is, this means that herd immunity was futile and comes at an immense cost to those who have already suffered at the hands of this inhumane strategy.

Bitch of an affliction.

seamus · 17-11-2020 11:06AM

Very quick crunch of some of the county numbers, and going by hospital stats would suggest that this current uptick is driven almost entirely by Donegal, Limerick, Meath & Waterford. If these four counties had been in "normal" range the last 4 days, we'd still be on a downward slope.

This would explain why GP referrals and community transmission is low but the numbers are still increasing; driven by clusters/outbreaks within these counties.

I don't know why they don't talk about these things at the briefings instead of going on about scenes of drinking on the streets and getting people worked up.

Big groups gathered out on the street is perhaps not the best idea in the middle of a pandemic, but talking about it in the same breath as caution over increasing numbers, creates the false narrative that the two are linked.

The data does not support any link between outdoor drinking and the current numbers. Nor the reopening of schools and the current numbers.

lawrencesummers · 17-11-2020 11:09AM

normanoffside wrote: »

I just find it very odd that this seems to be the first virus in history where spread from Asymptomatic people is apparently an issue?
Why has this never been an issue with other common and transmissible respiratory viruses?

How do you know it’s not?
There have been countless strains of the flu that have never been examined and researched and mitigated as much as this.

People react differently to things.

You hear about the 90’year old smoker who is still flying it and the 30 year old smoker on a list for a lung transplant.

Loafing Oaf · 17-11-2020 11:14AM

s1ippy wrote: »

Here's the latest on Boris, I'm guessing he doesn't have it and his self isolation is just virtue signalling as he'd know by now if he has it again or not.

I wonder if people who have already had the virus generally self-isolate when they're in close contact with a case. Seems a bit OTT...

17-11-2020 11:16AM

Akabusi wrote: »

I think its fairly simple, it took almost 3 months to get the numbers down first time with full buy in from the public, better weather and no schools. There isn't a hope in hell that we get them down to anywhere below 100 cases per day in 6 weeks. To have set such target was disingenuous at best but most likely to be used to extend the lockdown up to Christmas.

It took 6 weeks from peak to under 100

Ficheall · 17-11-2020 11:16AM

copeyhagen wrote: »

blame the public. blame 5 million for 100 in town..

2020, the year of the blame game, hold everyone accountable except the policy makers...

If the policies are followed perfectly, then sure, you can blame the policy makers.
"-This X doesn't do what it's supposed to.
- Did you follow the instructions?
- Most of them..."

And pretending there are only 100 people not following the policy is more than a little disingenuous.

I've no desire to say the HSE/NPHET are wholly innocent - I said back in February that Tony was an idiot - but to claim they are wholly responsible is every bit playing the blame game.

aziz · 17-11-2020 11:17AM

What bugs me about the Waterford cases is that’s it’s a outbreak in a factory, a TOY factory,how is that an essential business

Plus I heard workers were sent for tests and then told to get straight back to work.

And earlier in the crisis if a factory had a outbreak it would be closed for a deep cleaning but that is not happening here

s1ippy · 17-11-2020 11:17AM

s1ippy wrote: »

My old school had no cases, but an ex-colleague of mine said on the group chat their household has been struck down badly. She went home from school today and is awaiting a test but reckons she had fifteen close contacts during the morning between the staff room and her classroom, so it'll be interesting to see how conservative the contract tracers are.

At this stage every child in every school in the country needs to be tested.

There's been several cases confirmed now at the school as of this morning, the whole school has been closed (parents had to come and collect) as it's a small rural one. The principal closed the school, not the HSE. I've worked in eight schools in Cork and surrounds, I'd be friendly with some teachers in the majority of the main primary schools here. Nowhere I'm aware of doesn't have at least a case, but more likely large clusters now.

My brother is keeping his kids at home and my sister was sending hers in but they're isolating at the moment because they were close contacts of a confirmed case (not told where but their school is located near a hospital so I can probably take a wild guess).

Is Covid-19 testing and tracing system for schools fit for purpose? (via @IrishTimes) https://www.irishtimes.com/news/education/is-covid-19-testing-and-tracing-system-for-schools-fit-for-purpose-1.4403817
Let me know if you can't see that article.

Non solum non ambulabit · 17-11-2020 11:19AM

seamus wrote: »

Very quick crunch of some of the county numbers, and going by hospital stats would suggest that this current uptick is driven almost entirely by Donegal, Limerick, Meath & Waterford. If these four counties had been in "normal" range the last 4 days, we'd still be on a downward slope.

This would explain why GP referrals and community transmission is low but the numbers are still increasing; driven by clusters/outbreaks within these counties.

I don't know why they don't talk about these things at the briefings instead of going on about scenes of drinking on the streets and getting people worked up.

Big groups gathered out on the street is perhaps not the best idea in the middle of a pandemic, but talking about it in the same breath as caution over increasing numbers, creates the false narrative that the two are linked.

The data does not support any link between outdoor drinking and the current numbers. Nor the reopening of schools and the current numbers.

Great analysis. We are actually doing great save for a few outbreaks as you say. These outbreaks have nothing to do with schools or pubs. They are always the easy target.

We need journalists to do their job and ask what is causing these outbreaks instead of focusing on the easy target of young people meeting outside.

lawrencesummers · 17-11-2020 11:20AM

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

The lack of cases related to schools. Even if they are attributing as few cases as possible to schools, if large numbers children in the same school and their parents were all contracting the virus around the same time, we would know about it. Instead, all we get are these anecdotal stories like that which I quoted referring to two families! If there was more, people would be screaming about it.

This takes a bit to understand but it’s important.

Cases are only Confirmation that a small number (less than 5 %) of people at any given period who have symptoms or been in contact with a confirmed case actually have Covid.

That means that we are only quantifying the number of people who are sick with either symptoms or confirmed contact with someone who has tested positive.

We don’t, and have never quantified to a large enough degree the number of asymptomatic people over any lengthy enough period of time.

Granny can get sick today because she caught COVID 5 days ago after grandchild got COVID three weeks ago and it took 16 days to spread through the people in the house before granny got it, and none of them were tested as none had symptoms or only mild ones they ignored. Then you test all the family as close contacts of sick granny and they all come back negative except grandad because the virus has come and gone amongst the others.

Essentially We haven’t got the slightest clue about asymptomatic spread.

ACitizenErased · 17-11-2020 11:21AM

seamus wrote: »

Very quick crunch of some of the county numbers, and going by hospital stats would suggest that this current uptick is driven almost entirely by Donegal, Limerick, Meath & Waterford. If these four counties had been in "normal" range the last 4 days, we'd still be on a downward slope.

This would explain why GP referrals and community transmission is low but the numbers are still increasing; driven by clusters/outbreaks within these counties.

I don't know why they don't talk about these things at the briefings instead of going on about scenes of drinking on the streets and getting people worked up.

Big groups gathered out on the street is perhaps not the best idea in the middle of a pandemic, but talking about it in the same breath as caution over increasing numbers, creates the false narrative that the two are linked.

The data does not support any link between outdoor drinking and the current numbers. Nor the reopening of schools and the current numbers.

I've come to the exact same conclusion after looking at the figures. Every county has decreasing incidence except for the ones listed plus maybe 1/2.

Akabusi · 17-11-2020 11:21AM

mandrake04 wrote: »

They had to give a target that people will try to achieve, if they came out and said Christmas is cancelled then people are going say what's the F**king point and not bother.

Maybe a realistic target would have been better, treat the population as adults for once. Trust and buy in to the restrictions is being lost every week with this carry on.

lawrencesummers · 17-11-2020 11:22AM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

Great analysis. We are actually doing great save for a few outbreaks as you say. These outbreaks have nothing to do with schools or pubs. They are always the easy target.

We need journalists to do their job and ask what is causing these outbreaks instead of focusing on the easy target of young people meeting outside.

There have been cases of spread reported in schools. Not a lot but there have been casss reported. That’s not to say there haven’t been more though.

And your right there haven’t been outbreaks in pubs. Primarily because they are closed.

s1ippy · 17-11-2020 11:24AM

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I wonder if people who have already had the virus generally self-isolate when they're in close contact with a case. Seems a bit OTT...

That's the point, they previously thought it wasn't a risk but now they're seeing more and more reinfections. You wouldn't hear about this only that it's the prime minister so it's high profile. This needs to be publicised so people aren't going around recklessly after they've had it thinking they're invincible.

Genome sequencing and analysis of infected people has shown that various instances of the virus are different enough that antibody response will not necessarily be effective if somebody contracts another version of covid. Hence the 150 Swedish reinfections and Boris isolating now.

Akabusi · 17-11-2020 11:25AM

Deleted User wrote: »

It took 6 weeks from peak to under 100

Sorry, it seemed much longer.

I still stand by my point that this target is now much harder to achieve due to the differences in circumstances now.

Non solum non ambulabit · 17-11-2020 11:26AM

lawrencesummers wrote: »

There have been cases of spread reported in schools. Not a lot but there have been casss reported. That’s not to say there haven’t been more though.

And your right there haven’t been outbreaks in pubs. Primarily because they are closed.

So these outbreaks i was referring to in Donegal, Limerick, Meath & Waterford were due to schools. That has not be communicated. Tell me more.

Pubs are selling take away pints and there are people calling for them to be closed because they are spreading covid and causing these outbreaks. Again not backed up by data unless again you would like to share?

caveat emptor · 17-11-2020 11:27AM

We are doing remarkably well compared to our closest neighbours.
This is a combination of not having enough capacity so we had to get numbers under control aggressively and quickly.

I was no fan of the department of health and NPHET at various times throughout this crisis but credit where credit is due. Of course people aren't following restrictions because they don't believe in them, The data is fairly clear on the effectiveness of them even with the loud minority shouting to open up and let rip. Credit to them for not sugar coating things and to the government for eventually listening. Leo's Claire Byrne appearance was a short term PR win but has damaged him long term.

The fact that kids can get it and spread it means that schools open puts upward pressure on numbers whether we want to see that or not. The test and trace in schools is on another planet. I understand and agree with the necessity to keep them open though for the productivity of the country. However if we see runaway numbers again and everything is shut then that'll be looked at again.

Various trades are dying a death and if the supports are not enough they need to be changed. I suspect there are many in this area who are upset that they are not making as much money as they would have. i.e profit. Saying there is no evidence of restrictions to suit this narrative doesn't add up.

17-11-2020 11:30AM

There have been over 2,400 cases detected in schools in Northern Ireland since the start of term in August until the end of the first week of November.

All 39 of NI's special schools had at least one positive case.

NI are still reporting approx 500 cases per day, and are planning to lift restrictions on 27th November, including opening the pubs.

niallo27 · 17-11-2020 11:31AM

lemonTrees wrote: »

So it's take your picks fault bingo

NPHET
RTE
Sam McConkey
Varadkar
Minister for health
The pubs
The schools
Airports
Take away pints
Hairdressers
Communions
Funerals
Donald Trump
Cheltenham
Etc...Etc...

It's everyone's fault except people taking personal responsibility and acting like good citizens.

We would have no crime in this country if everyone was a good citizen, we would very little road deaths if everyone acted like a good citizen, everything would be wonderful if everyone acted like a good citizen but it does not happen in any aspect of life so why are we expecting it to happen with covid. Expecting people to do the right thing all of the time is an idiotic approach and it wont work.

niallo27 · 17-11-2020 11:34AM

Deleted User wrote: »

The data has flat-lined for every age group that has a reason to go out in public - whatever the reason. But lets blame schools so we can go for pints with our mates

Can we stop with this crap, it just makes people ignore whatever point you are making.

lawrencesummers · 17-11-2020 11:35AM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

So these outbreaks i was referring to in Donegal, Limerick, Meath & Waterford were due to schools. That has not be communicated. Tell me more.

Pubs are selling take away pints and there are people calling for them to be closed because they are spreading covid and causing these outbreaks. Again not backed up by data unless again you would like to share?

The data on schools is not conclusive because the tracing isn’t in depth enough or not being published, but the international evidence is overwhelmingly that schools contribute to transmission.

We are not given the information on cases spreading, a lot of unfounded talk is that Limerick is a result of large wedding and Donegal because of cross boarder contamination.

So your right the pubs are not the cause of outbreak, but we are not given the data on transmission and for a long time it wasn’t being collected anyway because contact tracing only went back 2 days.

Loafing Oaf · 17-11-2020 11:41AM

lawrencesummers wrote: »

The data on schools is not conclusive because the tracing isn’t in depth enough or not being published, but the international evidence is overwhelmingly that schools contribute to transmission.

We are not given the information on cases spreading, a lot of unfounded talk is that Limerick is a result of large wedding and Donegal because of cross boarder contamination.

So it is the schools. Or the posh ones anyway...

frank8211 · 17-11-2020 11:44AM

aziz wrote: »

What bugs me about the Waterford cases is that’s it’s a outbreak in a factory, a TOY factory,how is that an essential business

Plus I heard workers were sent for tests and then told to get straight back to work.

And earlier in the crisis if a factory had a outbreak it would be closed for a deep cleaning but that is not happening here

And an outbreak in a medical devices and meat factory are reported. And a few schools. Otherwise Waterford would have low figures

normanoffside · 17-11-2020 11:45AM

seamus wrote: »

Very quick crunch of some of the county numbers, and going by hospital stats would suggest that this current uptick is driven almost entirely by Donegal, Limerick, Meath & Waterford. If these four counties had been in "normal" range the last 4 days, we'd still be on a downward slope.

This would explain why GP referrals and community transmission is low but the numbers are still increasing; driven by clusters/outbreaks within these counties.

I don't know why they don't talk about these things at the briefings instead of going on about scenes of drinking on the streets and getting people worked up.

Big groups gathered out on the street is perhaps not the best idea in the middle of a pandemic, but talking about it in the same breath as caution over increasing numbers, creates the false narrative that the two are linked.

The data does not support any link between outdoor drinking and the current numbers. Nor the reopening of schools and the current numbers.

The rises in hospitalisations in Limerick and Donegal are the result of Hospital acquired infections in UHL and Letterkenny Hospitals respectively.

ednwireland · 17-11-2020 11:48AM

lawrencesummers wrote: »

We are not given the information on cases spreading, a lot of unfounded talk is that Limerick is a result of large wedding and Donegal because of cross boarder contamination.

West and south donegal cases 104 and 115 per 100000 east side in the 4 and 500 hundreds

so there has to be a border effect whether its work or shopping (and theres lots of people heading across because shops are open)

obviously Letterkenny has the highest because of the hospital outbreak

17-11-2020 11:51AM

seamus wrote: »

Very quick crunch of some of the county numbers, and going by hospital stats would suggest that this current uptick is driven almost entirely by Donegal, Limerick, Meath & Waterford. If these four counties had been in "normal" range the last 4 days, we'd still be on a downward slope.

This would explain why GP referrals and community transmission is low but the numbers are still increasing; driven by clusters/outbreaks within these counties.

I don't know why they don't talk about these things at the briefings instead of going on about scenes of drinking on the streets and getting people worked up.

Big groups gathered out on the street is perhaps not the best idea in the middle of a pandemic, but talking about it in the same breath as caution over increasing numbers, creates the false narrative that the two are linked.

The data does not support any link between outdoor drinking and the current numbers. Nor the reopening of schools and the current numbers.

Its good distraction and deflection

lawrencesummers · 17-11-2020 11:52AM

It’s a joke that the government will being in legislation less than a week after a few hundred people had a pint outdoors with no confirmed cases attributed but wouldn’t do anything about consistent and repeat confirmed contamination in meat factories.

Tackle the problem FFs.

ACitizenErased · 17-11-2020 11:52AM

normanoffside wrote: »

The rises in hospitalisations in Limerick and Donegal are the result of Hospital acquired infections in UHL and Letterkenny Hospitals respectively.

It's pretty mad how the hospital in Limerick has singlehandedly caused a community outbreak. That sounds like mass staff infection to me.

Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

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