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Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
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10-11-2020 5:58pm#1At the same time as the US Presidential election was sucking up all of the political attention in the world a long dormant conflict erupted in the Caucasus. Azerbaijan and the the ethnically Armenian occupants of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region resumed their decades old war. They had fought a bloody war in the 1990's that resulted in 30,000 dead with the net result that Armenia had effective control of a region that was, and still is, recognised as part of Azerbaijan. Since then there has been sporadic flare-ups but nothing on this scale.
Azerbaijan is a larger and wealthier country then Armenia but the Armenians have traditionally been supported by Russia. At the same time the Azerbaijanis have been supported by Turkey (both countries are populated by Turkic peoples and share a Muslim faith). Both of these allies have been pivotal in this conflict for opposing reasons. The Turks have essentially green-lighted this war and have supplied modern weaponery to the Azerbaijanis with which to fight it. At the same time the Russians have not been of any help to the Armenians. They have an agreement that they will defend Armenia if that comes under attack but crucially this does not apply to the Nagorno-karabakh region.
After 6 weeks of fighting and reports of up to 5,000 deaths Azerbaijan has taken a considerable amount of the region as well as it's second largest city Shusha/Shushi. Last night the Armenian Prime Minister signed a peace agreement to stop the fighting which solidified the loss of territory leading to angry protesters to rampage through the country's parliament. In contrast people celebrated on the streets of Baku and the Azerbaijani President make a triumphant address to the nation. Russia who co-signed the agreement have agreed to send in peace keepers. Here's how the map looks now:
There are many interesting questions that this all throws up:- Why did Turkey choose to Green-light the operation now?
- Why did Russia not intervene?
- According to the residents of Nagorno-karabakh, the capital Stepanakert was mere days from falling - so why did the Azerbaijanis agree to the Peace Agreement now?
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correct horse battery staple wrote: »It's complicated. I think Aliev had multiple goals, distract from Covid, take advantage of a unique times, and more importantly retake large chunks of land that were not even part of karabakh which they lost in 90s war. Which they accomplished along with militarily neutering Armenia for next decade.
I say between Putin putting pressure to maximise advantage to Russia without completely alienating Armenia and a realisation that occupation of the most populated of karabakh would mean years of insurgency, this is probably the best outcome for all involved. Sadly it took loss of life on all sides, to arrive at similar enough position which would have been achieved if OSCE Minsk Group plan was implemented.
The biggest issue was turkey and Israel to degree , without turkey backing Azerbaijan likely wouldn't have seen this latest conflict , russia likes when they are the only show in town and your only option is sign a treaty with us or we come in to protect our citizens (Georgia and Ukraine ) prime examples passportisation followed by troops and tanks ,but when you have a military force who have numbers and modern equipment and have the ability to hit back just as hard while causing massive losses to russia the game suddenly changes , erdokan is just as much a rouge as Putin is and he's shown he will have no issues hits russian military targets in Syria ( several aircraft lost to Turkish and Turks supported forces )
Putin has never had to face a strong military opponent ,yes he pokes his nose at US forces every now and again with unsafe military interceptions but he knows if one of his pilots caused the downing of a military aircraft or ship he would face dire consequences .
Turkey are more than happy to shoot first and ask questions later
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Brussels Sprout wrote: »At the same time as the US Presidential election was sucking up all of the political attention in the world a long dormant conflict erupted in the Caucasus. Azerbaijan and the the ethnically Armenian occupants of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region resumed their decades old war. They had fought a bloody war in the 1990's that resulted in 30,000 dead with the net result that Armenia had effective control of a region that was, and still is, recognised as part of Azerbaijan. Since then there has been sporadic flare-ups but nothing on this scale.
Azerbaijan is a larger and wealthier country then Armenia but the Armenians have traditionally been supported by Russia. At the same time the Azerbaijanis have been supported by Turkey (both countries are populated by Turkic peoples and share a Muslim faith). Both of these allies have been pivotal in this conflict for opposing reasons. The Turks have essentially green-lighted this war and have supplied modern weaponery to the Azerbaijanis with which to fight it. At the same time the Russians have not been of any help to the Armenians. They have an agreement that they will defend Armenia if that comes under attack but crucially this does not apply to the Nagorno-karabakh region.
After 6 weeks of fighting and reports of up to 5,000 deaths Azerbaijan has taken a considerable amount of the region as well as it's second largest city Shusha/Shushi. Last night the Armenian Prime Minister signed a peace agreement to stop the fighting which solidified the loss of territory leading to angry protesters to rampage through the country's parliament. In contrast people celebrated on the streets of Baku and the Azerbaijani President make a triumphant address to the nation. Russia who co-signed the agreement have agreed to send in peace keepers. Here's how the map looks now:
There are many interesting questions that this all throws up:- Why did Turkey choose to Green-light the operation now?
- Why did Russia not intervene?
- According to the residents of Nagorno-karabakh, the capital Stepanakert was mere days from falling - so why did the Azerbaijanis agree to the Peace Agreement now?
1) Turkey is desperate to become a dominant power in the region. They are jealous of Israel and the Arab powers in the Middle East. The EU lies to the west. Russia controls the Caucasus. Throw in a weak economy and crap currency. A war against an old enemy is a good distraction.
2) Russia sat back and let Armenia lose so they would have no one else to turn to. Now Russia has strengthened its hold over Armenia and blocked Turkey from having any further military presence in NK.
3) Azerbaijan were getting very close to taking NK. The risk of additional incidents like the shooting down of the Russian helicopter was increasing. Russia was always going to step in. Divide and conquer was the approach. Now they have a large "peacekeeping" force in Armenia and NK. They've also blocked Turkey's ambitions.0 -
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Divide and conquer was the approach. Now they have a large "peacekeeping" force in Armenia and NK. They've also blocked Turkey's ambitions.
They have been allowed 1600 troops , that's not by any stretch of the imagination a large force ,they could be wiped out in Few Hours , turkey is also putting peacekeepers in so already russia was countered , Azerbaijan backed by turkey and others means there is no russian aggression towards Azerbaijan forces who Will likely massively increase their presence in the Nk area
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Azerbaijan/Turkey are not going to attack Russian troops. They don't want a war in the Caucasus. Turkey isn't strong enough to take on Russia. Azerbaijan has taken a large part of NK but the area which remains under Armenian control will be policed by Russia.
No .
See your wrong Turkey could hold its own it's got one of the largest Militaries in the world ,they don't to attack Russia ,but Russia won't take on the Azerbaijans with Turkey in their corner and possibly nato(highly unlikely) as their back up Armenia has a weak russia a failing leader an economy in the gutter for years ,and they have suffered more losses in local conflicts not against real armies than America suffered in the 10+ years fighting in the middle East , Afghanistan and elsewhere ,
Again russian peacekeepers will only be policing a small corridor that's it ,
If Azerbaijan wanted they could push right up to the border with Armenia and then stop ,
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I'm not wrong. Turkey won't be able to take Russia on in its own backyard
Again they don't need to Azerbaijan got it's territory back and several weakened Armenia's military and government without having to go into Armenia itself ,
What did Russia influence get refugees and a government that may well collapse it's a loss for Armenia and putin ,
And a win for Azerbaijan and the Turks ,
Belarus , Armenia , some powerful allies there for a weak Putin
Is almost a trumpism fakes news we won .
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