Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

MerlinSouthDub · 12-11-2020 04:37PM

eigrod wrote: »

Slightly disappointing that the rate of reduction has pretty much stalled over the last few days.

Just the last 2 days. Tuesday's numbers were good. Also, positivity rate today is below the 7 day average. Would have been nice if it was lower though!

AlmightyCushion · 12-11-2020 04:44PM

3xh wrote: »

Not at all.

The poster used the 50,000 figure to say look how bad it is. The point is it’d be lower if they used <28 days since the start.

It’s a moving goal post.

Is it reasonable to say an 80 year old that contracted it, recovered, then dies 5 months later through old age complications is a Covid death? That is what was happening initially.

They made the change in mid August. 5 months prior to that was not long after this all started over here. I can't imagine there were many 80 year olds who got covid, recovered and then died 5 months later prior to their change.

Edit: Also, if you look at this page (https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths), you will see that the 50,000 figure is for deaths that occured 28 days after a positive covid test. They have over 61,600 deaths with covid on the death cert.

DOCARCH · 12-11-2020 04:44PM

3xh wrote: »

A timely reminder of the power of statistics;

In August 2020, the U.K. government changed their Covid death limit to 28 days after a positive test.

Up until then, any eventual death that occurred to a Covid positive case was classified as a death. No time limit.

So, what would happen to that 50,000 figure if the applied 28 days was used from the start?

Clue; it’d be lower.

Do you honestly think this is THE ONLY example of massaged statistics in this protracted Covid show?

Was watching BBC news the other day and they were talking about this. Apparently, to date, there are 61,000 death certificates in the UK that reference Covid-19.

ACitizenErased · 12-11-2020 04:47PM

Just in case people think today's number seems higher than expected - today's tests conducted is the highest since 31st October.

igCorcaigh · 12-11-2020 05:02PM

eigrod wrote: »

Slightly disappointing that the rate of reduction has pretty much stalled over the last few days.

It's exponential decay. The decreases get smaller with time. The trajectory is still downward.

manofwisdom · 12-11-2020 05:07PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Just in case people think today's number seems higher than expected - today's tests conducted is the highest since 31st October.

Yes good news to get only 423 positives from 13k tests.

Eod100 · 12-11-2020 05:17PM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

6.15 so

That's where the ish comes in :pac:

igCorcaigh · 12-11-2020 05:28PM

Wow! This is somewhere around 50% increase new cases in one day?

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1326923876002107394?s=19

3xh · 12-11-2020 05:30PM

DOCARCH wrote: »

Was watching BBC news the other day and they were talking about this. Apparently, to date, there are 61,000 death certificates in the UK that reference Covid-19.

I can’t explain the 61,000 figure. But I’d ask does that include or exclude the 5,500 Covid deaths that were removed from the running total in the summer? Who knows with these Covid stats.

Are you saying the BBC referenced 61,000 in the same week the U.K. total passed 50,000 but didn’t address the discrepancy in their report?

Eod100 · 12-11-2020 05:31PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Wow! This is somewhere around 50% increase new cases in one day?

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1326923876002107394?s=19

Makes it a bit easier to understand Varadkar telling people to hold off on flights home for time being so. Lots of Europe going the wrong way and good few Irish living in the UK and that's just one example.

Harry Palmr · 12-11-2020 05:33PM

First Caribbean cruise since they were suspended goes back out to sea and registers a case! Apparently its full of "bloggers" covering what they are on so there will be plenty of first hand coverage

https://twitter.com/AynRandPaulRyan/status/1326914010613215236

polesheep · 12-11-2020 05:37PM

3xh wrote: »

I can’t explain the 61,000 figure. But I’d ask does that include or exclude the 5,500 Covid deaths that were removed from the running total in the summer? Who knows with these Covid stats.

Are you saying the BBC referenced 61,000 in the same week the U.K. total passed 50,000 but didn’t address the discrepancy in their report?

I saw that report and they did address the discrepancy. They also featured two men aged 79 that had died with Covid. One daughter said her dad was a fit and healthy man with no underlying illness. It transpired that he was diabetic, an asthmatic and severely obese. The other man was also obese.

wakka12 · 12-11-2020 05:38PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Wow! This is somewhere around 50% increase new cases in one day?

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1326923876002107394?s=19

Depends how many tests were done. Hospitalisations and ICU dropped in the UK yesterday, fortunately it doesnt look to be heading towards the same insane peak as France/Italy/Belgium and central Europe

3xh · 12-11-2020 05:38PM

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

They made the change in mid August. 5 months prior to that was not long after this all started over here. I can't imagine there were many 80 year olds who got covid, recovered and then died 5 months later prior to their change.

Edit: Also, if you look at this page (https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths), you will see that the 50,000 figure is for deaths that occured 28 days after a positive covid test. They have over 61,600 deaths with covid on the death cert.

Ok, change 5 months to 29 days, 30 days, 31 days. Same thing but would easily explain the near ballistic rise and fall of deaths from March to May.

I only used 5 months to indicate the absurdity of the initial unlimited timeframe used followed by the changing of the parameters to <28 days but keeping the initial running death total going.

Can you agree that that is clearly manipulating statistics?

3xh · 12-11-2020 05:44PM

polesheep wrote: »

I saw that report and they did address the discrepancy. They also featured two men aged 79 that had died with Covid. One daughter said her dad was a fit and healthy man with no underlying illness. It transpired that he was diabetic, an asthmatic and severely obese. The other man was also obese.

Cheers, I’ll try watch the explanation for disparity in the figures if I can find it.

As for the bit about the 2 men, ffs! Typical. Just shows you. And as for this thing of whoring long Covid sufferers on tv/radio when you can find as many qualified doctors who don’t recognise it as an ailment.

wakka12 · 12-11-2020 05:45PM

3xh wrote: »

A timely reminder of the power of statistics;

In August 2020, the U.K. government changed their Covid death limit to 28 days after a positive test.

Up until then, any eventual death that occurred to a Covid positive case was classified as a death. No time limit.

So, what would happen to that 50,000 figure if the applied 28 days was used from the start?

Clue; it’d be lower.

Do you honestly think this is THE ONLY example of massaged statistics in this protracted Covid show?

5000+ deaths in the UK were removed from the official death toll a few months ago, the day after bringing in the 28 day limit. All deaths that took place beyond 28 days after infection were excluded

UK excess deaths are now over 70,000, certainly don't think overcounting deaths is something they could be accused of

Away With The Fairies · 12-11-2020 05:49PM

With numbers lowering each day, they seem to have some control over this again. How long are results taking now so that contact tracing can start?

igCorcaigh · 12-11-2020 05:49PM

wakka12 wrote: »

5000+ deaths in the UK were removed from the official death toll a few months ago, the day after bringing in the 28 day limit. All deaths that took place beyond 28 days after infection were excluded

UK excess deaths are now over 70,000, certainly don't think overcounting deaths is something they could be accused of

Seems a very sneaky thing to do, given that it can take a number of weeks before a patient succumbs. What is the official reason they give for that decision?

caveat emptor · 12-11-2020 05:53PM

Harry Palmr wrote: »

First Caribbean cruise since they were suspended goes back out to sea and registers a case! Apparently its full of "bloggers" covering what they are on so there will be plenty of first hand coverage

https://twitter.com/AynRandPaulRyan/status/1326914010613215236

Yeah when people say "we are all in the same boat" it's hard to believe them them, they really are in the same boat now. Wonder which port will allow them to dock. Still a nice 4 day cruise.

wakka12 · 12-11-2020 05:55PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Seems a very sneaky thing to do, given that it can take a number of weeks before a patient succumbs. What is the official reason they give for that decision?

Some patients who died after longer than 28 days in hospital would not be included in the official figure but to be fair it's a pretty small number

Dont know how to link images but scroll down to figure 4 in this study..it's a review of average hospital/ICU stay lengths. Outside of China it is very uncommon for anybody to be in hospital longer than 30 days with COVID, whether it's a death or recovery it usually takes place within a 30 day time frame after admission. https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-020-01726-3

However, in the UK the rule is not a COVID death if occurs 30 days after official notification of infection, not admission to hospital.

So they could be missing a good few for that reason now that I think of it. It's really hard to tell, honestly it's just a ridiculous system of counting deaths, makes no sense.

titan18 · 12-11-2020 06:24PM

Eod100 wrote: »

Makes it a bit easier to understand Varadkar telling people to hold off on flights home for time being so. Lots of Europe going the wrong way and good few Irish living in the UK and that's just one example.

Tbf, will Varadkar be telling the MEPs to stay in Brussels or will they be allowed in? Same rule for everyone and all

Hector Savage · 12-11-2020 06:27PM

https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2020-11-12/spain-will-require-negative-pcr-test-from-travelers-coming-from-over-60-countries.html

A bit rich from Spain, they are one of the worst countries in the world yet have this rule even with travellers from Ireland, and I guess the PCR test is not free.

This is the end of international travel.

Hector Savage · 12-11-2020 06:29PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

That would be us but for the measures in place. You look across Europe records are being broken left right and center.

It's remarkable and fortunate, even with the restrictions, we have managed to avoid the worst of it so far at least.

Let's keep it that way.

Bet you;re loving it yeah ?
Hoping for a lockdown that will just go on indefinitely ...

Kermit.de.frog · 12-11-2020 06:30PM

638 new deaths in Italy and 38,000 new cases.

Not good across the continent. Maybe Ireland can buck the trend to some extent and get to our level 3 provided we keep a lid on transmission. I am worried about the situation in the north though and potential for that to spill over.

Hector Savage · 12-11-2020 06:31PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

638 new deaths in Italy and 38,000 new cases.

Not good across the continent. Maybe Ireland can buck the trend to some extent and get to our level 3 provided we keep a lid on transmission. I am worried about the situation in the north though and potential for that to spill over.

I bet you're "worried" allright ...

MOR316 · 12-11-2020 06:32PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I am worried about the situation in the north though and potential for that to spill over.

First said in 1921

is_that_so · 12-11-2020 06:35PM

Hector Savage wrote: »

https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2020-11-12/spain-will-require-negative-pcr-test-from-travelers-coming-from-over-60-countries.html

A bit rich from Spain, they are one of the worst countries in the world yet have this rule even with travellers from Ireland, and I guess the PCR test is not free.

This is the end of international travel.

They won't for us when we go Orange/Amber next week. We currently tick the box on <150 cases per 100K and are very close to dipping below a 4% 14 day positivity rate.

Hector Savage · 12-11-2020 06:38PM

is_that_so wrote: »

They won't for us when we go Orange/Amber next week. We currently tick the box on <150 cases per 100K and are very close to dipping below a 4% 14 day positivity rate.

Either way, there can be no planning anymore, cos you don't know what country will be green/amber/red/whatever ahead of time.

Plus the cost of PCR ... ~ €150 per person, good luck with a family of 4.

Nah, it's done, I'll be lucky to get home in the next decade, allready accepted the fact ill never see my parents again and won't be able to go to their funerals.

All for a virus with an IFR of ~ 0.2% ...

NUTS!

Miike · 12-11-2020 06:42PM

Hector Savage wrote: »

Either way, there can be no planning anymore, cos you don't know what country will be green/amber/red/whatever ahead of time.

Plus the cost of PCR ... ~ €150 per person, good luck with a family of 4.

Nah, it's done, I'll be lucky to get home in the next decade, allready accepted the fact ill never see my parents again and won't be able to go to my parents funerals.

All for a virus with an IFR of ~ 0.2% ...
NUTS!

To be fair Hector, there is more to this than IFR.

This is an example of a hospital system already on its knees catering to an ENORMOUS catchment area, showing harrowing signs of decline:

In Limerick, there are 161 staff out of work today either due to a positive test or because they are a close contact of a confirmed case. The majority of these staff are from University Hospital Limerick and the HSE is expecting these numbers to increase as all staff are now being tested.

https://www.thejournal.ie/hospital-outbreaks-5264431-Nov2020/

stephenjmcd · 12-11-2020 06:42PM

Hector Savage wrote: »

Nah, it's done, I'll be lucky to get home in the next decade

Dramatic much?

Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

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