Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

holdyerhorses · 06-11-2020 07:30PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

They should open pubs, but possibly with restrictions on numbers per gathering. Not much wrong with 2/3/4 people meeting for a couple of drinks once they curb mass gatherings.

Nah, all pubs and restaurants open, but only with your household, this meeting with other households is the reason we are in this mess

lemonTrees · 06-11-2020 07:31PM

Numbers aren't coming down the way you'd like to see them. Think people need to prepare themselves mentally for level 5 lasting at least another 4 weeks.

spookwoman · 06-11-2020 07:37PM

bb1234567 · 06-11-2020 07:37PM

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/russia-resists-lockdown-despite-alarming-spread-of-covid-19-1.4402597?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Apparently 200,000 hospitalised with COVID in Russia according to Irish times, if so that is one of the highest hospitalisation rates in the world, 0.15% of the country's population in hospital at one time

PmMeUrDogs · 06-11-2020 07:37PM

lemonTrees wrote: »

Numbers aren't coming down the way you'd like to see them. Think people need to prepare themselves mentally for level 5 lasting at least another 4 weeks.

We're only barely starting to see the effect of level 5 and we've gone from 1000+ cases per day to a 7 day average of just over 500. That's an absolutely enormous drop and mostly a result of level 3.

We already know level 5 will last 4 more weeks but the decline is extremely encouraging

manniot2 · 06-11-2020 07:54PM

We bring in level 5 after months of moaning by the celeb scientists. As soon as there is talk of reopening plans, who do they roll out? Sam McConkey to put a dampener on things. Unreal.

Ah well, at least RTÉ radio 1 is doing well out of it all, the rest of ye can suffer.

bodhrandude · 06-11-2020 07:58PM

bb1234567 wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/russia-resists-lockdown-despite-alarming-spread-of-covid-19-1.4402597?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Apparently 200,000 hospitalised with COVID in Russia according to Irish times, if so that is one of the highest hospitalisation rates in the world, 0.15% of the country's population in hospital at one time

Jeezo it looks like Russia's herd immunity ain't working, 200,000 hospitalised is a crazy number.

podgeandrodge · 06-11-2020 08:04PM

owlbethere wrote: »

If pubs are allowed open for drinks, some part of the population will absolutely go ahead with 12 pubs of Christmas. Make no mistake about that. It's wishful thinking to think some people will behave and 12 pubs won't occur this year due to the need to keep contacts low and social distancing measures. If pubs are allowed open, the 12 pubs will be on.

owlbethere wrote: »

The public health team and the authorities know, give people an inch and they will take a mile. Unfortunately the pubs will probably remain closed due to the fear of people mishaving around the 12 pubs of Christmas aspect.

They need to allow for some people acting responsibly, the sledgehammer approach is unfair. It's not that difficult to place the onus on the pub owner to ensure that gatherings are in restricted numbers.

holdyerhorses wrote: »

Nah, all pubs and restaurants open, but only with your household, this meeting with other households is the reason we are in this mess

Difficult to identify households for pub owners though. Easier to limit gatherings to maybe 4 people or something like that. It's not unreasonable I think to allow small groupings to go out and have a jar. The problem is large gatherings of many households, where if one person has Covid, the spread will be potentially very high.

Deeper Blue · 06-11-2020 08:20PM

lemonTrees wrote: »

Numbers aren't coming down the way you'd like to see them. Think people need to prepare themselves mentally for level 5 lasting at least another 4 weeks.

Miles to early to say that. We've been in level 5 for just over a fortnight, the results of level 5 have probably only just started filtering through.

ACitizenErased · 06-11-2020 08:33PM

lemonTrees wrote: »

Numbers aren't coming down the way you'd like to see them. Think people need to prepare themselves mentally for level 5 lasting at least another 4 weeks.

If you think we're not coming out of level 5 on Dec 1st you've another thing coming

What Username Guidelines · 06-11-2020 08:34PM

owlbethere wrote: »

If pubs are allowed open for drinks, some part of the population will absolutely go ahead with 12 pubs of Christmas. Make no mistake about that. It's wishful thinking to think some people will behave and 12 pubs won't occur this year due to the need to keep contacts low and social distancing measures. If pubs are allowed open, the 12 pubs will be on.

I do wonder how big that “some part” is tbh. We’ve a cohort in the country that have lived as normal this year and gotten away with it, there’ll be no getting through to them.

I’ve personally been ok with the restrictions as my lifestyle hasn’t been overly impacted, but there is this weird subconscious thing around Christmas and my birthday in December where there’s a slight glumness about it, like maybe I’ll take a bit of a chance. I probably won’t, and it certainly won’t be the 12 pubs, it’ll be a meal with my wife. But I do wonder how many may actually give it a go and have a blowout.

Like mentioned earlier, people have been saying since the beginning that social distancing won’t last, and I’m surprised it has and we’ve all gotten very used to life as it is right now, so who knows what it’ll be like at Christmas. All I know is I’m ready to be further surprised by either people largely behaving or the whole thing collapsing.

06-11-2020 08:37PM

From this evening apparently

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1GsFp53Kxo

wadacrack · 06-11-2020 08:39PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

If you think we're not coming out of level 5 on Dec 1st you've another thing coming

Their wouldn't be another lockdown according to many on here. Only clusters also

MelbourneMan · 06-11-2020 08:39PM

lemonTrees wrote: »

Numbers aren't coming down the way you'd like to see them. Think people need to prepare themselves mentally for level 5 lasting at least another 4 weeks.

Hello. This is not suggested by the data, projections, or modelling, in any shape or form. Diligence and discipline are required until then, but given the modified behaviours of recent weeks, an extension of Level 5 is considered a very low probability scenario at this time, and would only be provoked by a significant unforeseen event.

ACitizenErased · 06-11-2020 08:40PM

MelbourneMan wrote: »

Hello. This is not suggested by the data, projections, or modelling, in any shape or form. Diligence and discipline are required until then, but given the modified behaviours of recent weeks, an extension of Level 5 is considered a very low probability scenario at this time, and would only be provoked by a significant unforeseen event.

Cheers Philip.

domrush · 06-11-2020 08:42PM

MelbourneMan wrote: »

Hello. This is not suggested by the data, projections, or modelling, in any shape or form. Diligence and discipline are required until then, but given the modified behaviours of recent weeks, an extension of Level 5 is considered a very low probability scenario at this time, and would only be provoked by a significant unforeseen event.

Is this poster an expert in the field? Genuine question

Jim_Hodge · 06-11-2020 08:48PM

domrush wrote: »

Is this poster an expert in the field? Genuine question

Two guesses and the correct one doesn't begin with Y.

niallo27 · 06-11-2020 08:49PM

wadacrack wrote: »

Their wouldn't be another lockdown according to many on here. Only clusters also

There is no way they are not opening retail before Christmas no matter how much Tony says.

polesheep · 06-11-2020 08:49PM

wadacrack wrote: »

Their wouldn't be another lockdown according to many on here. Only clusters also

Maybe you are observing the lockdown but many aren't. What was meant by 'there won't be another lockdown' was compliance. There isn't anything like the same compliance this time around.

holdyerhorses · 06-11-2020 08:49PM

lemonTrees wrote: »

Numbers aren't coming down the way you'd like to see them. Think people need to prepare themselves mentally for level 5 lasting at least another 4 weeks.

Forever, really, if the stay at 300 to 500, that's level 5 forever, until a treatment, no?

I'd mentally prepare yourself for that, rather than the hope NOHET might advise otherwise.

Morries Wigs · 06-11-2020 08:50PM

For me the next 2 weeks are crucial

polesheep · 06-11-2020 08:51PM

MelbourneMan wrote: »

Hello. This is not suggested by the data, projections, or modelling, in any shape or form. Diligence and discipline are required until then, but given the modified behaviours of recent weeks, an extension of Level 5 is considered a very low probability scenario at this time, and would only be provoked by a significant unforeseen event.

Goodbye.

holdyerhorses · 06-11-2020 08:51PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

They need to allow for some people acting responsibly, the sledgehammer approach is unfair. It's not that difficult to place the onus on the pub owner to ensure that gatherings are in restricted numbers.

Difficult to identify households for pub owners though. Easier to limit gatherings to maybe 4 people or something like that. It's not unreasonable I think to allow small groupings to go out and have a jar. The problem is large gatherings of many households, where if one person has Covid, the spread will be potentially very high.

But that wasnt happening when restaurants and pubs were open, it mas max 6, and rare I would assume that it was 6 different households.4 would mean a family of 5 in one house couldn't go, that's illogical.

wadacrack · 06-11-2020 08:52PM

polesheep wrote: »

Maybe you are observing the lockdown but many aren't. What was meant by 'there won't be another lockdown' was compliance. There isn't anything like the same compliance this time around.

The evidence on close contacts appears to indicate that many are. Id expect retail to open . Pubs I think seems unlikely and recipe for disaster unless cases are very low below 50 daily

Plumbthedepths · 06-11-2020 08:52PM

Morries Wigs wrote: »

For me the next 2 weeks are crucial

Aren't they all, I assume your concerned aswell.

Jim_Hodge · 06-11-2020 08:52PM

MelbourneMan wrote: »

Hello. This is not suggested by the data, projections, or modelling, in any shape or form. Diligence and discipline are required until then, but given the modified behaviours of recent weeks, an extension of Level 5 is considered a very low probability scenario at this time, and would only be provoked by a significant unforeseen event.

Hi, good evening, howdy,

Care to throw up some of the modelling there for the Heck of it?

:rolleyes:

polesheep · 06-11-2020 08:54PM

holdyerhorses wrote: »

Forever, really, if the stay at 300 to 500, that's level 5 forever, until a treatment, no?

I'd mentally prepare yourself for that, rather than the hope NOHET might advise otherwise.

Level 1,2,3,4,5 it doesn't matter. Look around you. They have closed businesses but people are working around the restrictions now.

Jim_Hodge · 06-11-2020 08:54PM

polesheep wrote: »

Maybe you are observing the lockdown but many aren't. What was meant by 'there won't be another lockdown' was compliance. There isn't anything like the same compliance this time around.

You keep saying this but I have seen massive compliance. You don't see compliance because it has been clear from day 1 that you don't want to see it.

Arghus · 06-11-2020 08:55PM

hmmm wrote: »

And I can't believe some people are saying we should relax restrictions quickly, this is exactly what got us into the second lockdown mess.

If numbers continue to fall it will become relentless. Expect to see spokespeople on for restraunters, publicans, hairdressers, business owners etc, etc on every current affairs show on TV, radio and across the Internet saying that their particular sector should be opened up quicker. There already was one on prime time last night and then another on TV3 straight afterwards. It's quite bogus really, because the public are behind the measures but the constant lobbying in the media can help shape the narrative and then can force the government to act.

The government needs to stick to its guns for the 6 weeks.

polesheep · 06-11-2020 08:56PM

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

You keep saying this but I have seen massive compliance. You don't see compliance because it has been clear from day 1 that you don't want to see it.

You need to get out of your bubble. I live in Dublin and I see life as nearly normal, bar businesses being closed. And people are finding ways around that.

Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

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