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Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

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  • #1052
    What Username Guidelines
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    Russman wrote: »
    That's simply not going to happen. Thankfully most people realise how serious this thing is and that extraordinary measures are required. Yes, its sh1t for people and the spread of burden is not equal, but one look at our continental neighbours will bring people back to reality. Its not going away because we're fed up with it.

    Yeah, that "it'll be over by [X]" has been posted frequently since March. :rolleyes:


  • #1053
    Away With The Fairies
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,077 ✭✭✭Away With The Fairies


    OscarMIlde wrote: »
    From what I can gather the main issue is that these mutations are within the spike protein.

    The spike protein was chosen as the antigenic region for the vaccines in development, partly as it seemed to be immunogenic (i.e. our immune system recognises it as a foriegn object) and partly as it seemed fairly stable/unmutated in sars-cov-2 strains circulating, and thus would work against all these strains.

    If new strains of sars-cov-2 emerge in humans from mink with mutations in the spike protein, these may result in sufficient differences that antibodies produced by the vaccine may not recognise this altered spike protein. If this strain is as transmissable between humans as the current circulating strains this could result in another pandemic.

    Although it is not entirely clear at this stage the net effect of these mutations, the fact that the virus is more mutable in farmed mink populations is of sufficient concern that the populations are being culled as a response.

    Hopefully a very strict quarantine is being maintained on any workers potentially exposed to this. An early response is crucial in containing this.

    Isn't it too late to control this second pandemic? There was a link a few pages back saying it got to an old person in a nursing home who had no connection to mink farms. So sounds like it's been circulating for a while.


  • #1054
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,758 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Away With The Fairies wrote: »
    Isn't it too late to control this second pandemic? There was a link a few pages back saying it got to an old person in a nursing home who had no connection to mink farms. So sounds like it's been circulating for a while.
    There's 12 cases.


  • #1055
    Paddygreen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 716 ✭✭✭Paddygreen


    GT89 wrote: »
    The governmemt narrative tells us that the more we obey their guidelines the quicker we will be out of lockdown. Complete nonsense and could be further from the truth the more we resist the quicker lockdown will be over. Brillant to see these protests in London.
    https://twitter.com/SteveLaws_/status/1324425970242232321?s=19

    Are you one of our experts? Where is your PhD? Where is your title? All our experts, leaders, and aristocracy wants to do is keep us safe from the dangerous virus , because they really really care about us. Over on the mainland this is what His Royal Highness Prince Charles Philip Arthur George, Prince of Wales, KG, KT, GCB, OM, AK, QSO, CC, PC, ADC, Earl of Chester, Duke of Cornwall, Duke of Rothesay, Earl of Carrick, Baron of Renfrew, Lord of the Isles and Prince and Great Steward of Scotland has to say...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BucTwPegW5k


  • #1056
    Rob A. Bank
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,842 ✭✭✭Rob A. Bank


    Professional sports bubbles are good places to study COVID-19

    US Professional basketball players have helped to provide details of a poorly understood phase of Covis-19’s life cycle: its behaviour in the bodies of newly infected people.

    Athletes and staff members were repeatedly checked for SARS-CoV-2 with a version of the highly sensitive quantitative polymerase chain reaction method, which can be used to assess a person’s viral levels.

    The intensive testing offered a rare chance to monitor viral levels in infected people who had not yet developed symptoms, and also in those who never felt ill.

    The study analyzed test results from 68 people.. On average, symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals reached similar peak viral RNA concentrations within similar amounts of time (2.9 days vs. 3.0 days), but acute shedding lasted longer for symptomatic individuals (10.5 days vs. 6.7 )


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  • #1057
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Easily tweaked.

    The leading Covid vaccines are not using the technology normally seen in the flu vaccine, which are inactivated virus or the live attenuated nasal spray used in children.

    One of the Chinese ones is going the inactivated route.

    All the leading candidates target the spike protein of the virus. It would be a setback for them if a mutation causes enough of a change in the spike protein that the antibody response created by the vaccine is either reduced or ineffective.


  • #1058
    Akesh
    Closed Accounts Posts: 315 ✭✭Akesh


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    So you are not concerned about debt now due to the negative interest rates pointed out even though it was a reason for getting back to normal yesterday? it's now about the cancer patients.

    I suspect this less about the sovereign fiscal position and more about individuals cost of servicing debt. After all Ireland may be able to get ECB to buy bonds at negative interest rates but banks charge quite a bit more here for mortgages and business loans.

    Nobody is arguing that essential health services shouldn't continue. In fact that was one of the main reasons for the restrictions. Did you watch the latest briefing from NPHET. Operationally the hospitals are doing well because they are not overwhelmed. It's vital they stay open to clear the back log. They can only stay open if we have restrictions. If we have restrictions we need too incur debt.

    Different arguments are trotted based on the flavour of the day. Unfortunately they are all connected.

    Our debt to GDP s one of the best in Europe. Europe has much bigger problems than us in regards financial position. Your immediate concern of rising interest rates isn't based in fact.

    I don't think you understand how the current ECB monetary policy and how it affects our sovereign debt position.
    Our predicted cost of servicing our debts has decreased by 50% between 2016 and 2020 due to lower and lower interest rates.

    Please read the report and stop worrying.


    531970.png




    https://data.oireachtas.ie/ie/oireachtas/parliamentaryBudgetOffice/2020/2020-04-21_national-debt-an-overview_en.pdf

    531969.png

    Using GDP as a metric to measure debt in Ireland is nonsense because our GDP is the most skewed in Europe due to our status as a tax haven and light-touch in regulation. Ireland will again ask future generations to pay for past mistakes including the current restrictions which are destroying the economy day-by-day.

    Also, the issue of borrowing is that the money is not being spent correctly. Borrowing funds to pay for furlough schemes is an inherently terrible idea that will return nothing to the country bar kicking the can down the road for someone else to deal with.

    Some people seem to think negative interest rates mean a magic money tree. If you are investing that money in infrastructure then you can justify the spend but in the current climate it is madness and I know people aren't going to accept more direct or indirect taxation as a result.


  • #1059
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    There's 12 cases.

    One of which is in a separate geographic region to the mink farms and the Danish government have indicated they expect a significant portion of their current cases are caused by the strain.


  • #1060
    mandrake04
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,435 ✭✭✭mandrake04


    Stheno wrote: »
    I'm having a bad day today so please bear that in mind and also please do not take this personally

    I dont think everyone is taking an equal bite. I'm very fortunate and can wfh forever, have gotten a payrise recently and been given some fantastic opportunities this past eight months. Great you say, whats the problem?

    I used have a life. I used be able to go for drinks once a week with a colleague and we'd unwind. She messaged me yesterday that she needed a virtual meetup as she was losing her mind. We'd a good chat

    My oh in his fifties very bravely decided last year to set up a new business and leave his job, that is currently in limbo and the crushing impact to his mental health is something I have to not just cope with everyday but try to put on a brave face regardless of how I feel. I'm an introvert, he's an extrovert and this is having a truly dreadful impact on his mental health, sense of self worth and sense of direction to the point that I literally asked him to speak to his doctor, but he has not as I suspect it confirms to him that his fears are reality

    I've had one person in my house since March to sort out an Internet issue.

    I've seen five friends in total once since March
    I've visited my mother once

    But I'm lucky. I've kept my job etc

    I can't get an appointment to talk to my doctor in person

    I can't trust our government to guide us through this despite the fact that I'm one of those people employed in a multinational who are propping up our tax revenues


    You know what I'd love for Christmas? I'd love for my Oh to get to have just a few hours for a meal and some drinks with his children thats literally all I want.

    Sorry bit of a rant I guess my point is that it doesn't impact us all equally

    I totally empathise with your situation, you are totally right its very apparent that not everyone is taking an equal bite.

    You seem to be doing the best you can.... and a lot of businesses are doing the right thing too and they are now forced to close.

    Pubs that closed for 6 months, fitted out all covid safe precautions at the cost of '000s..restocked only to be closed 3 weeks later. Some will never reopen.

    Yet on the other hand there were plenty of people who travelled to Red/Green countries on holidays when they could have holidayed at home and returned the money they spent into to their own economy ... instead some brought back some 'holiday mementos' and now everyone is paying for it ...including those who decided to stay at home and do the right thing.

    I wish you and your OH all the best, and a hope of some return of normality soon.


  • #1061
    spookwoman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,059 ✭✭✭✭spookwoman


    Sure if vaccines can be so easily tweeked then they should have no problem creating them and banging them out for all the corona virus's :rolleyes:


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  • #1062
    Away With The Fairies
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,077 ✭✭✭Away With The Fairies


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    There's 12 cases.

    There's another number going around and it's close to 700.


  • #1063
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Away With The Fairies wrote: »
    There's another number going around and it's close to 700.

    The Danish health minister has said of 783 cases in the northern region half are mink related, doesn't mean they are all this particular strain, but it's certainly more than 12.


  • #1064
    lemonTrees
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 105 ✭✭lemonTrees


    I always thought it would be the apes that had their revenge on us, who knew it would be the minks.


  • #1065
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,450 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Away With The Fairies wrote: »
    There's another number going around and it's close to 700.

    They've 700 fur farms alright.

    One Danish source says 12 cases another said half of the 700 cases in a region are linked to mink farms.

    "A Danish government report has linked a mutated COVID-19 strain to 12 cases in the country’s north, and the health minister said more than half of the over 700 cases in the region had been linked to mink"

    I think what people seem to be missing here is that this sequence isn't unique to Denmark its been recorded in various parts of Europe, the Dutch flagged it months ago & appearently its been reported from Ireland as well.

    I've seen commentary from scientist's saying they've not seen the evidence, the danes haven't released it. Its a mutation hence any existing antibodies aren't for that particular strain but that doesn't mean they don't have an impact, vaccine development focuses on T Cells to induce immune response, no evidence in this area yet.

    Anyway there's a whole thread on this topic.


  • #1066
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    mandrake04 wrote: »
    Really the blame is not with NPHET, they are only advising the government on a virus that was more or less eradicated in Ireland in June. If you want to blame someone blame those who traveled and reintroduced the virus back into the country.

    You can have hospitality open or you can have un-quarantined travel...it’s now plain to see long term you really can’t have both.

    Also long term those who require treatments and therapy in the future might struggle because healthcare workers who also have lives and are continuously under pressure from dealing with Covid will walk away from the profession ...everyone loses in that situation.

    It’s a huge sh!t sandwich and everyone is being asked to take a bit.
    NPHET have not been great since the CMO came back. They've thrown a few curve balls especially on communication and it's not unreasonable to argue we were going straight to Level 5 whether we liked it or not. They are also very coy on metrics. In March that didn't matter because we weren't going anywhere. While we won't get any commitments for now , over the next few weeks they need to set a value on as low as possible. Donnelly yesterday was equally as vague, suggesting that Dec 1 could still end up as just a milestone. As that long heartfelt post underscores, we need some levels of certainty that we can trust these restrictions will last as long as they are mandated or promised.


  • #1067
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    They've 700 fur farms alright.

    One Danish source says 12 cases another said half of the 700 cases in a region are linked to mink farms.

    "A Danish government report has linked a mutated COVID-19 strain to 12 cases in the country’s north, and the health minister said more than half of the over 700 cases in the region had been linked to mink"

    I think what people seem to be missing here is that this sequence isn't unique to Denmark its been recorded in various parts of Europe, the Dutch flagged it months ago.

    I've seen commentary from scientist's saying they've not seen the evidence, the danes haven't released it. Its a mutation hence any existing antibodies aren't for that particular strain, vaccine development focuses on T Cells to induce immune response, no evidence in this area yet.

    Anyway there's a whole thread on this topic.

    CD4+ T cells cause B cells to produce antibodies and help CD8+ T cells to destroy infected cells. If the antibodies from this response don't work on a mutated spike protein this has implications for the effectiveness of vaccines that are targeting the spike protein.


  • #1068
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,450 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    CD4+ T cells cause B cells to produce antibodies and help CD8+ T cells to destroy infected cells. If the antibodies from this response don't work on a mutated spike protein this has implications for the effectiveness of vaccines that are targeting the spike protein.

    Some updates from the science community. As I also said this isn't the first report of minks , the Dutch reported cases earlier in the year. The danes are now reporting 214 mink related cases since June

    https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1324456118668550144?s=19

    https://twitter.com/firefoxx66/status/1324630245039869953?s=19


  • #1069
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    is_that_so wrote: »
    NPHET have not been great since the CMO came back. They've thrown a few curve balls especially on communication and it's not unreasonable to argue we were going straight to Level 5 whether we liked it or not. They are also very coy on metrics. In March that didn't matter because we weren't going anywhere. While we won't get any commitments for now , over the next few weeks they need to set a value on as low as possible. Donnelly yesterday was equally as vague, suggesting that Dec 1 could still end up as just a milestone. As that long heartfelt post underscores, we need some levels of certainty that we can trust these restrictions will last as long as they are mandated or promised.

    If you could replace our public health team with the PH team from any other country in Europe, who would it be?


  • #1070
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    If you could replace our public health team with the PH team from any other country in Europe, who would it be?
    The Germans, but we'd need their health system as well!


  • #1071
    polesheep
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,950 ✭✭✭polesheep


    mandrake04 wrote: »
    I totally empathise with your situation, you are totally right its very apparent that not everyone is taking an equal bite.

    You seem to be doing the best you can.... and a lot of businesses are doing the right thing too and they are now forced to close.

    Pubs that closed for 6 months, fitted out all covid safe precautions at the cost of '000s..restocked only to be closed 3 weeks later. Some will never reopen.

    Yet on the other hand there were plenty of people who travelled to Red/Green countries on holidays when they could have holidayed at home and returned the money they spent into to their own economy ... instead some brought back some 'holiday mementos' and now everyone is paying for it ...including those who decided to stay at home and do the right thing.

    I wish you and your OH all the best, and a hope of some return of normality soon.

    Still banging that travel drum? There was never any advice against travelling to a green list country. I did so and enjoyed a wonderful holiday. I didn't bring back a 'memento' for anyone.


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  • #1072
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    is_that_so wrote: »
    The Germans, but we'd need their health system as well!

    Sorry. You only get the PH team.
    Germany would probably still be a good shout though.

    It was a loaded question I asked you of course. The point being that while far from perfect, there aren't many PH teams out there that are clearly doing a better job than our lot.

    What I admire about our lot was that they were able to admit their failures far faster than most of their euro counterparts - that the soup of county level restrictions we were using was not working - and that we needed harsh national level restrictions sooner rather than later to save us from a disaster.

    Level 5 might have been too much. That's open for debate.
    But I don't think they can be knocked for the relatively comfortable position we currently find ourselves in.


  • #1073
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    polesheep wrote: »
    Still banging that travel drum? There was never any advice against travelling to a green list country. I did so and enjoyed a wonderful holiday. I didn't bring back a 'memento' for anyone.

    Was in Italy myself brought back some nice vintage reds and a few t-shirts.


  • #1074
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    Sorry. You only get the PH team.
    Germany would probably still be a good shout though.

    It was a loaded question I asked you of course. The point being that while far from perfect, there aren't many PH teams out there that are clearly doing a better job than our lot.

    What I admire about our lot was that they were able to admit their failures far faster than most of their euro counterparts - that the soup of county level restrictions we were using was not working - and that we needed harsh national level restrictions sooner rather than later to save us from a disaster.

    Level 5 might have been too much. That's open for debate.
    But I don't think they can be knocked for the relatively comfortable position we currently find ourselves in.
    My issue with them is this Level 5, when they applied it and the "robust" data they used to get there. It all looks a lot like the March strategy. Level 3+ never finished but still delivered the drops of these last few weeks. I'd like to see them put actual numbers on "as low as possible" and to confirm as soon as is possible if 6 weeks is a real number. I'd also to hear of any new tools or strategies they can bring to bear on this. So far our strategy seems to be just a holding pattern till a vaccines arrives.


  • #1075
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Donegal Stubbornly high and have retaken their crown as having the highest 14 day rate in the country
    531988.JPG

    531989.JPG


  • #1076
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,758 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Donegal's issue is surely related to the north?
    Do you have similar projections for the other border counties, @raind?


  • #1077
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Donegal's issue is surely related to the north?
    Do you have similar projections for the other border counties, @raind?

    Donegal has a cluster in Letterkenny hospital

    Its also affected by Strabane whish is literally right beside it and at one point had one of the highest numbers per 100k in the world, it was well in excess of 1000 per 100k


  • #1078
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Donegal's issue is surely related to the north?
    Do you have similar projections for the other border counties, @raind?

    By the growth rate in 14 day incidence measure, Cavan is at 0.39, Monaghan at 0.57, Louth at 0.72 and Donegal at 0.95. The country as a whole at 0.68


  • #1079
    bodhrandude
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,870 ✭✭✭✭bodhrandude


    Just heard from my brother that my niece has tested positive for covid, she is a healthcare worker in Glasgow, Scotland, she is young and healthy so should pull through. Her symptoms were fatigue, tiredness and loss of sense of smell. My other sister in Dundee also said my other niece who is a doctor is isolating after being confirmed as a close contact although she hasn't received a positive diagnosis as yet.

    If you want to get into it, you got to get out of it. (Hawkwind 1982)



  • #1080
    SeaBreezes
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,554 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes


    polesheep wrote: »
    Still banging that travel drum? There was never any advice against travelling to a green list country. I did so and enjoyed a wonderful holiday. I didn't bring back a 'memento' for anyone.

    How do you know? . Did you get tested before and after?


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  • #1081
    bb1234567
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    So Slovakia having tested 2/3 of it's population has revealed an IFR of 0.45%, based on current cases and deaths. Some more people will die which will skew it upward, over 200 in ICU right now, but presumably they missed a good few recoveries in the time testing was ongoing or before they chose to test the whole country, so perhaps they balance each other out?


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