Trump vs Biden 2020, And the winner is.......... (pt 4) Read OP

y0ssar1an22 · 05-11-2020 06:31PM

AVFC.Stephen wrote: »

Why is it only fox news that have biden on 264

they gave him arizona which is just about there

namloc1980 · 05-11-2020 06:32PM

bazermc wrote: »

I’m watching CNN. They have Biden at 253 but other news outlets have Biden with 264.

Is the difference Arizona?

Yes AZ has 11 EC votes.

namloc1980 · 05-11-2020 06:32PM

The CNN correspondent in Philadelphia is a bit all over the shop

hatrickpatrick · 05-11-2020 06:33PM

bazermc wrote: »

I’m watching CNN. They have Biden at 253 but other news outlets have Biden with 264.

Is the difference Arizona?

Correct. This election will ultimately hinge on Arizona IMO. I don't see PA or GA flipping to Biden the way others do and I definitely don't think Trump has a snowball's hope in hell of flipping NV. So ultimately it's going to depend on whether AZ flips or not.

froog · 05-11-2020 06:33PM

https://twitter.com/i/status/1324401575092277248

briany · 05-11-2020 06:33PM

Necro wrote: »

How else would you describe the actions of someone who is actively trying to stop counting in states he is losing?

You'd call those actions desperate.

What are Trump supporters' accusations exactly? That the postal vote is subject to fraud on a level disproportionate to the number of postal votes cast in the election? No-one disputes that electoral fraud happens, but does it happen in such a coordinated way and in such a high number?

You're never going to convince these people of anything else, anyway. They're starting off from the assumption that the whole establishment is out to take Trump down. That's an unshakable truth to them, and they must alter their perceptions of reality to remain consistent with it.

05-11-2020 06:34PM

Oops been asleep the last 3 hours. Damn sickness.

Anything develop since this afternoon?

flazio · 05-11-2020 06:35PM

If Fox want to mend their GOP bridges they should take a punt and call Georgia for Trump now.

flazio · 05-11-2020 06:36PM

John King is the Peter Snow of US politics.

Quin_Dub · 05-11-2020 06:36PM

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Of course, the Trumpeteers have a different take on this seemingly honest mistake by AP:

https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1324389591177191426

I really don't get their emotion on that one.

It's not like Fox calling it makes it official.

Do they think that the Vote count stops because Fox changed a graphic??

Kermit.de.frog · 05-11-2020 06:37PM

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Correct. This election will ultimately hinge on Arizona IMO. I don't see PA or GA flipping to Biden the way others do and I definitely don't think Trump has a snowball's hope in hell of flipping NV. So ultimately it's going to depend on whether AZ flips or not.

Biden will win PA with ease in the end imo.

namloc1980 · 05-11-2020 06:37PM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

I really don't get their emotion on that one.

It's not like Fox calling it makes it official.

Do they think that the Vote count stops because Fox changed a graphic??

It helps to rile up the base.

Penn · 05-11-2020 06:37PM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

I really don't get their emotion on that one.

It's not like Fox calling it makes it official.

Do they think that the Vote count stops because Fox changed a graphic??

I think they don't like that it makes Trump's position look weaker, and that he's further behind and therefore not worth supporting in terms of Trump's challenges.

J2CVC · 05-11-2020 06:38PM

Some people are betting on Kamala Harris as next president, anyone know why?

She was 1000 (999/1) up until today (on Betfair). I noticed she moved to 880 a short while ago. She's now down to 400.

Edit: She's now down to 200

sheeplover55 · 05-11-2020 06:38PM

AP have Biden on 264 too when you Google "US election" , it's not just Fox

sheeplover55 · 05-11-2020 06:39PM

J2CVC wrote: »

Some people are betting on Kamala Harris as next president, anyone know why?

She was 1000 (999/1) up until today (on Betfair). I noticed she moved to 880 a short while ago. She's now down to 400.

Edit: She's now down to 200

Bidens age more than anything

Donald Trump · 05-11-2020 06:39PM

J2CVC wrote: »

Some people are betting on Kamala Harris as next president, anyone know why?

She was 1000 (999/1) up until today (on Betfair). I noticed she moved to 880 a short while ago. She's now down to 400.

Edit: She's now down to 200

They are betting that Biden kicks the bucket or becomes incapacitated before inauguration day.

Dohnjoe · 05-11-2020 06:40PM

From the Guardian feed

The Guardian’s Nina Lakhani reports from Northampton county:

Allegany county, home to Pennsylvania’s second biggest city of Pittsburgh, has paused all counting until tomorrow morning due to a legal challenge over 29,000 ballots.

Another 6000 ballots, which are too creased for the scanner, will need to be counted manually and for some reason those won’t be done until tomorrow either.

Instead, staff will work on “administrative issues” and resume counting at 9am Friday. In total, around 35k ballots are still to be counted in Allegany county, which means it’s looking unlikely that we’ll get a result from Pennsylvania today.

Donald Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania currently stands at 115,000, down from 600,000 yesterday morning. In Philadelphia, where Joe Biden has a 80% lead, a whopping 17% of votes are still to be counted.

To win Pennsylvania, Biden must win 61-63% of the remaining uncounted votes, while Trump needs to win about 37 to 39%.

In short, Biden will be much happier right now.

J2CVC · 05-11-2020 06:40PM

sheeplover55 wrote: »

Bidens age more than anything

People didn't just realise his age. Something happened somewhere to trigger someone to bet. We might never know what it is, or we might learn later.

05-11-2020 06:40PM

namloc1980 wrote: »

Too many talking heads on Fox with their whacky opinions. John King at the big board is much better.

I think they have over played him this election. Used to be they would get updates from him every half hour or so, this year its pretty much just him and the wolf droning on for hours and hours and hours and....

froog · 05-11-2020 06:40PM

J2CVC wrote: »

Some people are betting on Kamala Harris as next president, anyone know why?

She was 1000 (999/1) up until today (on Betfair). I noticed she moved to 880 a short while ago. She's now down to 400.

Edit: She's now down to 200

novelty bets. they play around with the odds to get people to throw away their money. no doubt a few hundred people will throw money on her thinking joe is about to croak it. free money for bookies.

BringBackMick · 05-11-2020 06:41PM

J2CVC wrote: »

People didn't just realise his age. Something happened somewhere to trigger someone to bet. We might never know what it is, or we might learn later.

At those prices it just takes somebody to throw 20eur on her to move, people will be hedging their bets to cover all outcomes at this stage, people just sealing in profit across the market.

Overheal · 05-11-2020 06:42PM

2nd Georgia Senate race also to go to Runoff.

ArmaniJeanss · 05-11-2020 06:43PM

J2CVC wrote: »

Some people are betting on Kamala Harris as next president, anyone know why?

She was 1000 (999/1) up until today (on Betfair). I noticed she moved to 880 a short while ago. She's now down to 400.

Edit: She's now down to 200

Depends on the terms of the market to an extent - if its next inaugurated president then presumably there's a non-zero chance of any 77 year-old man dying over the two month period between now & early January when Biden becomes prez.
Her odds have come in because if Trump had won then she had no chance, but now she does have that chance.

paleoperson · 05-11-2020 06:43PM

J2CVC wrote: »

Some people are betting on Kamala Harris as next president, anyone know why?

She was 1000 (999/1) up until today (on Betfair). I noticed she moved to 880 a short while ago. She's now down to 400.

Edit: She's now down to 200

What do you mean "why", obviously if Biden is voted as president and becomes incapacitated (heart attack, assassination, another stroke they can't hide) Harris becomes president. The odds are shortening along with Biden's odds. It's still a few months until the next president is actually inaugurated.

eagle eye · 05-11-2020 06:44PM

hatrickpatrick wrote:

Correct. This election will ultimately hinge on Arizona IMO. I don't see PA or GA flipping to Biden the way others do and I definitely don't think Trump has a snowball's hope in hell of flipping NV. So ultimately it's going to depend on whether AZ flips or not.

Pennsylvania is going to be an easy win for Biden.

y0ssar1an22 · 05-11-2020 06:44PM

the reason arizona was awared:

split current total
467,000.00 0.75 350,250.00 1,469,341.00 1,819,591.00 biden wins
0.25 116,750.00 1,400,951.00 1,517,701.00
86% counted -
or 0.7 326,900.00 1,469,341.00 1,796,241.00
2,869k 0.3 140,100.00 1,400,951.00 1,541,051.00 biden wins

0.65 303,550.00 1,469,341.00 1,772,891.00
0.35 163,450.00 1,400,951.00 1,564,401.00 biden wins
-
0.625 291,875.00 1,469,341.00 1,761,216.00
0.375 175,125.00 1,400,951.00 1,576,076.00 biden wins
-
0.615 287,205.00 1,469,341.00 1,756,546.00
0.385 179,795.00 1,400,951.00 1,580,746.00 biden wins
-
0.61 284,870.00 1,469,341.00 1,754,211.00
0.39 182,130.00 1,400,951.00 1,583,081.00 biden wins

0.60 280,200.00 1,469,341.00 1,749,541.00
0.40 186,800.00 1,400,951.00 1,587,751.00 biden wins

0.55 256,850.00 1,469,341.00 1,726,191.00
0.45 210,150.00 1,400,951.00 1,611,101.00 biden wins
-
0.525 245,175.00 1,469,341.00 1,714,516.00
0.475 221,825.00 1,400,951.00 1,622,776.00 biden wins

0.5 233,500.00 1,469,341.00 1,702,841.00
0.5 233,500.00 1,400,951.00 1,634,451.00 biden wins
-
0.45 210,150.00 1,469,341.00 1,679,491.00
0.55 256,850.00 1,400,951.00 1,657,801.00 biden wins
-
0.4 186,800.00 1,469,341.00 1,656,141.00
0.6 280,200.00 1,400,951.00 1,681,151.00 trump wins

trump needs about 58% of remaining to win

Kermit.de.frog · 05-11-2020 06:45PM

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1324406121721786369

J2CVC · 05-11-2020 06:45PM

froog wrote: »

novelty bets. they play around with the odds to get people to throw away their money. no doubt a few hundred people will throw money on her thinking joe is about to croak it. free money for bookies.

It's the exchange. Punters set the odds.

BringBackMick wrote: »

At those prices it just takes somebody to throw 20eur on her to move, people will be hedging their bets to cover all outcomes at this stage, people just sealing in profit across the market.

It really doesn't take just €20. It took thousands to get it down.

PalLimerick · 05-11-2020 06:45PM

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Depends on the terms of the market to an extent - if its next inaugurated president then presumably there's a non-zero chance of any 77 year-old man dying over the two month period between now & early January when Biden becomes prez.
Her odds have come in because if Trump had won then she had no chance, but now she does have that chance.

If Biden becomes "Prez".

Trump vs Biden 2020, And the winner is.......... (pt 4) Read OP

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