US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

murpho999 · 05-11-2020 02:22PM

dogbert27 wrote: »

I really want to see those two called asap but Nevada is only reporting at 75%.

The AP though have Az called already for Biden so I just want it confirmed. He just needs one more State then.

Nevada said they wouldn't report anything until today.

Also Fox have also called AZ as Biden and are adamant and sticking with it despite criticism from Trump's camp.

They've based their call on where the votes outstanding to come in from.

Christy42 wrote: »

Sure but I want this in the bag. I have no interest in Biden having a lot of chances and coming up short in each.

Yes, but you just have to have patience with these things sometimes.

StringerBell wrote: »

I'd agree, I just felt like venting my concerns

I think he holds Nevada, and I am confident in Arizona, I've always been strong on Georgia if you have seen any of my posts about them even on election night when he was so far behind initially but I would also really love PA to put the stamp on it. Uphill battles in some areas but doable.

Venting is no problem.

I think he'll take PA, AZ ,GE & NE.

That would put him at 306 v 232 for a comprehensive victory that cannot be legally challenged.

Brussels Sprout · 05-11-2020 02:24PM

paul71 wrote: »

North Carolina announced yesterday that they are not counting again until 12th November.

Just to add that they have a law saying that any mail ballots will be counted that arrive up until that date so long as they are post-marked up to election day.

dogbert27 wrote: »

Alaska is only 50% reported. Are there more mail in votes to count there?

I heard before election that usually it takes weeks to fully count the vote in Alaska. I can only guess that it is something to do with its size and number of remote regions and transporting ballots.

prawnsambo · 05-11-2020 02:24PM

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

Have to be careful here because saying 'all votes get counted' is a bit misleading. The democrats fought for extremely lax restrictions in PA, the postmark one being indefensible (nobody has defended and I have challenged many to do so). So the democrats want crazily lax restrictions imo, and the Republicans want to stop that one, I wouldn't consider that voter suppression.

Obviously people will disagree about different instances, this is politics and I accept both sides will fight for the outcome that favours them no matter what. But the idea that it is necessarily voter suppression to is a bit too much.

Can I defend that one?

Within reason (and I define that as having been postmarked within the normal postal time to get to the centre by polling day) I can't see why properly postmarked votes that get to the centre after polling day shouldn't be counted.

jasonb · 05-11-2020 02:27PM

paul71 wrote: »

North Carolina announced yesterday that they are not counting again until 12th November.

Completely missed that, thanks! Makes sense why the map wasn't being updated.

So at the moment, with the states left in play, only GA and PA are counting (and AZ too I assume, though that's hopefully not in play) with NV getting back counting soon today?

letowski · 05-11-2020 02:29PM

Biden will win Pennsylvania north of +100k when all is said and done.

Brussels Sprout · 05-11-2020 02:30PM

murpho999 wrote: »

That would put him at 306 v 232 for a comprehensive victory that cannot be legally challenged.

Had a look there and this was one of the 89 winning scenario's that 538 had in their prediction:

Call Me Jimmy · 05-11-2020 02:31PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

Can I defend that one?

Within reason (and I define that as having been postmarked within the normal postal time to get to the centre by polling day) I can't see why properly postmarked votes that get to the centre after polling day shouldn't be counted.

"Ballots can be counted if they lack a postmark, a legible postmark or some other proof of mailing unless a “preponderance of the evidence” shows it was mailed after Election Day, the court said." Maybe I misunderstand it but that is different to what you're saying I think.
https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-pennsylvania-elections-courts-41b7c3a620dd3ba1b9c741fb80ff8466

moon2 · 05-11-2020 02:33PM

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

Have to be careful here because saying 'all votes get counted' is a bit misleading. The democrats fought for extremely lax restrictions in PA, the postmark one being indefensible (nobody has defended and I have challenged many to do so). So the democrats want crazily lax restrictions imo, and the Republicans want to stop that one, I wouldn't consider that voter suppression.

Obviously people will disagree about different instances, this is politics and I accept both sides will fight for the outcome that favours them no matter what. But the idea that it is necessarily voter suppression to is a bit too much.

(I didn't mean to imply you called it voter suppression, but it is the common theme I've heard)

If you post something a week before election day and the postal service *does not* deliver it by election day, that vote should absolutely be counted.

I appreciate there needs to be a limit on how long you can wait for votes to arrive, but 'a couple of days' is definitely a very reasonable thing to promote democracy and ensure no-one is disenfrancised by virtue of their local post office being underfunded/underperforming.

The best example is that the USPS in Florida may have failed to deliver 300,000 votes. https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/elections/2020/11/03/usps-ordered-to-search-for-mail-ballots-on-election-day/ It's shocking that a failure of the USPS, potentially caused by interference by the current government, is going to disenfranchise so many votes. It's especially troubling when this is more than sufficient to swing the election.

Inquitus · 05-11-2020 02:33PM

murpho999 wrote: »

Nevada said they wouldn't report anything until today.

Also Fox have also called AZ as Biden and are adamant and sticking with it despite criticism from Trump's camp.

They've based their call on where the votes outstanding to come in from.

Yes, but you just have to have patience with these things sometimes.

Venting is no problem.

I think he'll take PA, AZ ,GE & NE.

That would put him at 306 v 232 for a comprehensive victory that cannot be legally challenged.

Aye that's quite likely and definitely Biden's best possible outcome at the moment:

JZ4ly

Call Me Jimmy · 05-11-2020 02:33PM

everlast75 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/PaulBlu/status/1324349677660184585?s=19

This needs to be acknowledged.

It was Trump's plan to downplay the virus, get his supporters to the polls on the day and as democrats would most likely post their ballots to reduce COVID exposure, declare victory on the night and set the narrative that the postal votes were rigged.

This was all by design.

Well it didn't work very well if you have much higher turnout from democrats because of mail-in and I assume only a tiny portion of that will even be eligible to be challenged.

Movementarian · 05-11-2020 02:34PM

letowski wrote: »

Biden will win Pennsylvania north of +100k when all is said and done.

Really wish I had that confidence.....

Call Me Jimmy · 05-11-2020 02:36PM

moon2 wrote: »

If you post something a week before election day and the postal service *does not* deliver it by election day, that vote should absolutely be counted.

I appreciate there needs to be a limit on how long you can wait for votes to arrive, but 'a couple of days' is definitely a very reasonable thing to promote democracy and ensure no-one is disenfrancised by virtue of their local post office being underfunded/underperforming.

The best example is that the USPS in Florida may have failed to deliver 300,000 votes. https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/elections/2020/11/03/usps-ordered-to-search-for-mail-ballots-on-election-day/ It's shocking that a failure of the USPS, potentially caused by interference by the current government, is going to disenfranchise so many votes. It's especially troubling when this is more than sufficient to swing the election.

See my post above yours about the ruling.

If the USPS has done anything illegitimate or there is any sign of ****ery on their part then let's see the evidence. I'm not doubting it, but I'm sure the democratic operatives / lawyers will be bringing it to the attention of the people and the courts if that's the case.

Big Pussy Bonpensiero · 05-11-2020 02:37PM

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

"Ballots can be counted if they lack a postmark, a legible postmark or some other proof of mailing unless a “preponderance of the evidence” shows it was mailed after Election Day, the court said." Maybe I misunderstand it but that is different to what you're saying I think.
https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-pennsylvania-elections-courts-41b7c3a620dd3ba1b9c741fb80ff8466

Why is this an issue for you, and Republicans, only now? Mail in ballots is one of the safest ways to vote, has proven to be over and over again, and has been done for decades by those in the military.

You might think you're presenting a valid point, but you're not. That lawsuit was an embarrassment to the Republican party, and it won't be forgotton what they have tried to do here.

Jimbob1977 · 05-11-2020 02:38PM

Call me old fashioned, but I think every election should require a voter to turn up at a polling station on election day.

No pre-voting weeks before Election Day or postal votes (where postmarks are being debated!!).

The only exception should be postal votes for the verifiably infirmed or hospitalised.

The American system is ripe for fraud.

Quin_Dub · 05-11-2020 02:39PM

everlast75 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1324341206306967552?s=19

Interesting to hear this. Allays my fears somewhat

Threshold is only 0.1% so has to be absolutely razor thin either way for a recount.

Other States are 0.5% or 1% threshold

Akabusi · 05-11-2020 02:39PM

moon2 wrote: »

If you post something a week before election day and the postal service *does not* deliver it by election day, that vote should absolutely be counted.

I appreciate there needs to be a limit on how long you can wait for votes to arrive, but 'a couple of days' is definitely a very reasonable thing to promote democracy and ensure no-one is disenfrancised by virtue of their local post office being underfunded/underperforming.

The best example is that the USPS in Florida may have failed to deliver 300,000 votes. https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/elections/2020/11/03/usps-ordered-to-search-for-mail-ballots-on-election-day/ It's shocking that a failure of the USPS, potentially caused by interference by the current government, is going to disenfranchise so many votes. It's especially troubling when this is more than sufficient to swing the election.

But didn't Trump win Florida by more than 300K. Even if everyone of them are Biden votes it won't change things there.

Call Me Jimmy · 05-11-2020 02:39PM

Big Pussy Bonpensiero wrote: »

Why is this an issue for you, and Republicans, only now? Mail in ballots is one of the safest ways to vote, has proven to be over and over again, and has been done for decades by those in the military.

You might think you're presenting a valid point, but you're not. That lawsuit was an embarrassment to the Republican party, and it won't be forgotton what they have tried to do here.

So we can't talk about any of the legal things democrats are doing? Can't question it? I haven't heard a good reason why ballots lacking any verification that they were posted before the election being counted after the election is a good thing.

Quin_Dub · 05-11-2020 02:40PM

Jimbob1977 wrote: »

Call me old fashioned, but I think every election should require a voter to turn up at a polling station on election day.

No pre-voting weeks before Election Day or postal votes (where postmarks are being debated!!).

The only exception should be postal votes for the verifiably infirmed or hospitalised.

The American system is ripe for fraud.

And yet , the instance of fraud is miniscule almost beyond measure.

It just doesn't happen at any kind of scale.

paul71 · 05-11-2020 02:41PM

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

See my post above yours about the ruling.

If the USPS has done anything illegitimate or there is any sign of ****ery on their part then let's see the evidence. I'm not doubting it, but I'm sure the democratic operatives / lawyers will be bringing it to the attention of the people and the courts if that's the case.

The court is already involved, there is a chance that the recently appointed head of the USPS could be found in contempt of a federal court order to sweep processing plants on Tuesday, the punishment contempt of court can be imprisonment.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/11/03/election-ballot-delays-usps/

Big Pussy Bonpensiero · 05-11-2020 02:41PM

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

So we can't talk about any of the legal things democrats are doing? Can't question it? I haven't heard a good reason why ballots lacking any verification that they were posted before the election being counted after the election is a good thing.

Show us proof of fraud.
Then you have a point.
This has been done for decades.
It's tried and trusted. Nothing more really to say on the matter.

Akabusi · 05-11-2020 02:41PM

Jimbob1977 wrote: »

Call me old fashioned, but I think every election should require a voter to turn up at a polling station on election day.

No pre-voting weeks before Election Day or postal votes (where postmarks are being debated!!).

The only exception should be postal votes for the verifiably infirmed or hospitalised.

The American system is ripe for fraud.

Hello Old Fashioned!

Nody · 05-11-2020 02:42PM

Jimbob1977 wrote: »

Call me old fashioned, but I think every election should require a voter to turn up at a polling station on election day.

No pre-voting weeks before Election Day or postal votes (where postmarks are being debated!!).

The only exception should be postal votes for the verifiably infirmed or hospitalised.

The American system is ripe for fraud.

So ripe that the last study concluded for 2016 found a whopping total of 0.0005% fraudulent votes; that's 1440 votes total based on 160 million people voting. Yup, that sure will swing the president election... Now compare that to Republicans actively closing down places to vote to ensure people can not exercise their legal right to vote by comparison I'd say mail in voting should rather be the main option by comparison because it reduces the possibility of political dicking around.

Christy42 · 05-11-2020 02:43PM

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

So we can't talk about any of the legal things democrats are doing? Can't question it? I haven't heard a good reason why ballots lacking any verification it was posted before the election can be counted after the election is a good thing.

Why would it not have verification one way or another would be my first question. What is the verification system?

I think innocent till proven guilty applies for me (not the actual legal bit, just the principle). If you got some mail now as last years Christmas present then you would be skeptical it was sent before last Christmas. Given the post office's recent failures and stresses you have uncertainty about the ballots. If that person has not voted another way I would hedge on counting it. Having someone vote slightly late is regrettable but preferable to to disenfranchising someone who voted on time and got unlucky

dogbert27 · 05-11-2020 02:44PM

Jimbob1977 wrote: »

Call me old fashioned, but I think every election should require a voter to turn up at a polling station on election day.

No pre-voting weeks before Election Day or postal votes (where postmarks are being debated!!).

The only exception should be postal votes for the verifiably infirmed or hospitalised.

The American system is ripe for fraud.

There is also a pandemic that is hitting America one of the hardest so people are safely using their democratic right to cast their vote and be vigilant of their health.

Call Me Jimmy · 05-11-2020 02:45PM

Big Pussy Bonpensiero wrote: »

Show us proof of fraud.
Then you have a point.
This has been done for decades.
It's tried and trusted. Nothing more really to say on the matter.

No the ruling I'm talking about is in the last few weeks and I believe only in PA.

Big Pussy Bonpensiero · 05-11-2020 02:46PM

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

No the ruling I'm talking about is in the last few weeks and I believe only in PA.

Okay, but the action was taken by the Republican Party. It's up to them to provide proof that it's not safe, it's not up to the court or the people to prove otherwise. They made the claim, let them back it up. It really is that simple.

Call Me Jimmy · 05-11-2020 02:47PM

Christy42 wrote: »

Why would it not have verification one way or another would be my first question. What is the verification system?

I think innocent till proven guilty applies for me (not the actual legal bit, just the principle). If you got some mail now as last years Christmas present then you would be skeptical it was sent before last Christmas. Given the post office's recent failures and stresses you have uncertainty about the ballots. If that person has not voted another way I would hedge on counting it. Having someone vote slightly late is regrettable but preferable to to disenfranchising someone who voted on time and got unlucky

I completely agree innocent until proven guilty, I just couldn't say to myself that I would want that as a standard all politics aside. And I was struck by the fact that nobody seemed to have a real reason for making it that lax.

0gac3yjefb5sv7 · 05-11-2020 02:52PM

Seems like we haven't got many results today. Is there any large batches due or final counts to close in the remaining States soon?

Mr.Nice Guy · 05-11-2020 02:53PM

Looking increasingly good for Biden in PA:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324357456575778825

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324360362586755074

Brussels Sprout · 05-11-2020 02:56PM

Jimbob1977 wrote: »

Call me old fashioned, but I think every election should require a voter to turn up at a polling station on election day.

No pre-voting weeks before Election Day or postal votes (where postmarks are being debated!!).

The only exception should be postal votes for the verifiably infirmed or hospitalised.

The American system is ripe for fraud.

Packing people into polling stations on 1 single day in the middle of a pandemic would have been beyond reckless....even by American standards.
It would probably would have disenfranchised the majority of healthy but worried people over 65 - which likely would have hurt Republicans (despite what the polls were thinking - seniors appear to have broken for Trump again).

Trump's arguments against mail-in voting changed depending on whether he thought that they would be for or are against him - showing that his argument against them was morally bankrupt.

US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

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