Trump vs Biden 2020, Ultimate battle for the fate of our universe (pt 3)Read OP 01/11

eagle eye · 03-11-2020 10:33pm

froog wrote:

CNN saying the exit poll represents both early voters and late.

How could it represent late voters on the west coast?

Quin_Dub · 03-11-2020 10:33pm

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Terrifying exit poll for Biden campaign if it is accurate. If people are voting on the economy then that's a positive for Trump. Like it or not, most people have more money in their back pocket now than four years ago.

However a big caveat to the exit poll - surely it is oversampling Republicans given the early voting? So how valuable actually is it?

They don't really though..

Analysis of the Tax data for 2019 , the 1st full tax year after the big tax cuts and before Covid showed that 57% of Americans had less money (not much , about $400 a year) than in the last full tax year under Obama (2016).

Aleece2020 · 03-11-2020 10:34pm

AlphaDelta1 wrote: »

Everything iv'e seen thus far points to a big win in Florida for the president.

I'm seeing him winning there too according to all polls etc. but not by a huge margin.

jammiedodgers · 03-11-2020 10:34pm

Guy on CNN just said the exit poll included all voters (both early and voters today)

eagle eye · 03-11-2020 10:34pm

Quin_Dub wrote:

Analysis of the Tax data for 2019 , the 1st full tax year after the big tax cuts and before Covid showed that 57% of Americans had less money (not much , about $400 a year) than in the last full tax year under Obama (2016).

And everything was more expensive.

froog · 03-11-2020 10:34pm

eagle eye wrote: »

How could it represent late voters on the west coast?

i think they mean both voters from the last week and voters so far today from certain states. polls are all still open of course.

dark crystal · 03-11-2020 10:36pm

Aleece2020 wrote: »

I'm seeing him winning there too according to all polls etc. but not by a huge margin.

All polls? Which ones - Genuinely curious, as I can't see many saying Trump winning in Florida.

Quin_Dub · 03-11-2020 10:36pm

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

Would they not just poll the same amount of each?

Given that they appear to not be "exit polls" as I'd understand them - A guy standing in car-park of the school asking people how they voted on the way out.

I actually don't now how these work - Are they just like a regular poll, just taken today and only asking people that have actually voted?

Does anyone know?

Drumpot · 03-11-2020 10:36pm

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

Would they not just poll the same amount of each?

Not sure really. Is there suggestions that a lot of people will vote for Trump and say Biden if asked.

These exit polls are great viewing for the Trump base if they are a reasonably balanced Indication of voters preference.

froog · 03-11-2020 10:37pm

are they not allowed to ask directly who you voted for in exit polls?

omega man · 03-11-2020 10:37pm

jammiedodgers wrote: »

Guy on CNN just said the exit poll included all voters (both early and voters today)

Wasn’t there something like 100m mail in votes?

hometruths · 03-11-2020 10:37pm

Smee_Again wrote: »

Sky News reporting that college educated voters are up 5% and non-college educated voters are down 4%.

That’s good news for Biden.

That could be very significant.

Kermit.de.frog · 03-11-2020 10:39pm

schmittel wrote: »

That could be very significant.

Yes, that's a 9 point swing to college educated voters.

This also implies changes in rural voter turnout where education levels are typically lower and that is a negative for Trump.

eagle eye · 03-11-2020 10:39pm

Amazing that people are putting up stuff about Trump looking like winning states and when asked questions they don't respond.

I'm really surprised........................NOT!!!

Overheal · 03-11-2020 10:41pm

omega man wrote: »

Wasn’t there something like 100m mail in votes?

101.9 million. 74% of all votes cast in 2016.

Hurrache · 03-11-2020 10:41pm

froog wrote: »

CNN saying the exit poll represents both early voters and late.

In the one day. They're pretty pointless in trying to predict a winner.

omega man · 03-11-2020 10:42pm

Overheal wrote: »

101.9 million. 74% of all votes cast in 2016.

So I guess this can’t be factored in exit polls then.

cnocbui · 03-11-2020 10:42pm

There is an election counting progress tracker here, if anyones interested:
https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/us-election-2020-results-20201102-p56ars.html

froog · 03-11-2020 10:42pm

christ i flicked on to fox news to see what they're up to. a special edition of the five with gutfeld showing funny animal videos. i **** you not.

Sierra Oscar · 03-11-2020 10:43pm

eagle eye wrote: »

Where are you getting this crap from?
I'm a regular visitor to the US with lots of friends over there as I used to live there. Ordinary, decent hardworking people have had less money in the last two years than at any time they remember.

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1323757221784641537

gmisk · 03-11-2020 10:43pm

Dr. Bre wrote: »

We have 2 here FG and FF

Huh?
SF got biggest vote share last time?
Greens have seats
Independents
PBP
Social democrats

Kermit.de.frog · 03-11-2020 10:44pm

Hurrache wrote: »

In the one day. They're pretty pointless in trying to predict a winner.

538 explained that the reason it's not a good technique is because it's randomly ringing people who may not have even voted.

Whereas an actual exit poll surveys those who have definitely voted. On the day that leans republican.

Richard Hillman · 03-11-2020 10:44pm

41% are saying they are better off now than 4 years ago. 20% saying worse.

Would love if we had polls like that here.

Hurrache · 03-11-2020 10:44pm

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1323757221784641537

Richard Hillman wrote: »

41% are saying they are better off now than 4 years ago. 20% saying worse.

Would love if we had polls like that here.

In other words, a majority say their financial situation hasn't improved under Trump.

yourdeadwright · 03-11-2020 10:45pm

I just seen that the proud boys " the so called white supremacist organisation" that Trump told to stand back amd stand by are run by a Black Hispanic man,
Am i missing ng something? How are they considered white supremacist?

Dante7 · 03-11-2020 10:45pm

Cheerful Spring2 wrote: »

Registered Republicans have cast more votes in Florida. We don't know who they exactly voted for but logic says Trump. Reports by some Trump up by 200,000 votes.. With two hours to go, and if correct, Biden needs a surge from his supporters to win that state.

These metrics are not confirmed till we see the official vote tallies later!

That's not entirely correct. There are about 2 million independent/non-affiliated votes that aren't included in those figures. Common consensus indicates that Republicans need about a 3.5% cushion to counter the probable Democratic leaning of those numbers. Those numbers also don't include Miami-Dade which is Democrat, so Florida is still very much in play.

Aleece2020 · 03-11-2020 10:45pm

dark crystal wrote: »

All polls? Which ones - Genuinely curious, as I can't see many saying Trump winning in Florida.

There are a fair few floating around twitter under the #Florida tag.

Can't speak for their reliability; most of them are very adamant Trump supporters (such as Election Wizard etc.)

I personally don't trust them; but I find it interesting that even the people who are really on Trump's side are predicting such a slim win and not a larger one. That doesn't sit well for him.

Quin_Dub · 03-11-2020 10:47pm

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1323757221784641537

That definitely suggests an "on the day" skew Republican - The data for that same question was nothing like that about 2 weeks ago.

Don't get me wrong , quite a few said that things were better , but nothing like those figures..

Trump even tweeted about them as they were relatively positive..

Kermit.de.frog · 03-11-2020 10:47pm

Kentucky and Indiana (the first states) will, of course, go to Trump at the top of the hour.

But will Trump be racking up as much vote in rural counties as 2016? That will be interesting.

hometruths · 03-11-2020 10:47pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Yes, that's a 9 point swing to college educated voters.

This also implies changes in rural voter turnout where education levels are typically lower and that is a negative for Trump.

Yes, and if you split these two demographics by race you get to those who define this election in a nutshell:

College educated white voters - anti Trump vote.
Non college educated white voters - pro Trump vote.

If that 9 point swing is accurate it could be an indicator that the anti Trump depth of feeling is stronger than the pro Trump feeling.

I still think the sheer weight of numbers of Trumps demographic will see him through, but no doubt about, if I was Trump those figures would worry me.

Black Hawk Down · 03-11-2020 10:48pm

Quin_Dub wrote: »

They don't really though..

56% of Americans said they were better off now, even in the middle of a pandemic, then under Obama/Biden 4 years ago. I think we can safely assume that a big chunk of this will be down to what they have in their bank a/c at the end of the month.

Like it or not, millions of Americans are voting for Trump primarily because of his excellent work on the economy. And the realisation that a Biden administration is very likely to destroy those economic gains.

Biden's flip flopping on issues like fracking and fossil fuels, and the constant bickering in general with the DNC about the green new deal etc, is driving many people away from them. Not to mention all the peaceful protestors!

Sierra Oscar · 03-11-2020 10:49pm

Quin_Dub wrote: »

That definitely suggests an "on the day" skew Republican - The data for that same question was nothing like that about 2 weeks ago.

Don't get me wrong , quite a few said that things were better , but nothing like those figures..

Trump even tweeted about them as they were relatively positive..

I'd agree with you, the exit poll data is out of kilter with what we have seen in recent weeks.

Although CNN say it includes early voters.

Lawlesz · 03-11-2020 10:50pm

Where are we all watching this? Sky/CNN/BBC/Al Jazeera? What will have the least amount of bias? :pac:

03-11-2020 10:50pm

yourdeadwright wrote: »

I just seen that the proud boys " the so called white supremacist organisation" that Trump told to stand back amd stand by are run by a Black Hispanic man,
Am i missing ng something? How are they considered white supremacist?

He's a black Hispanic white supremacist..

Quantum Erasure · 03-11-2020 10:51pm

Lawlesz wrote: »

Where are we all watching this? Sky/CNN/BBC/Al Jazeera? :pac:

Yes

Hurrache · 03-11-2020 10:51pm

The exit poll results based on the various topics are not good for Trump anyway, topics being the environment, federal government, Obama care, Roe Vs Wade don't reflect his stance.

sheeplover55 · 03-11-2020 10:52pm

Lawlesz wrote: »

Where are we all watching this? Sky/CNN/BBC/Al Jazeera? What will have the least amount of bias? :pac:

2016 Fox had the best neutral coverage, Brett Baier and Megan Kelly - will hop on their soon, I'd assume it'll be Baier and Martha MacCallum

Lawlesz · 03-11-2020 10:52pm

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

Yes

Thanks, next time don't bother

eagle eye · 03-11-2020 10:52pm

Black Hawk Down wrote:

56% of Americans said they were better off now, even in the middle of a pandemic, then under Obama/Biden 4 years ago. I think we can safely assume that a big chunk of this will be down to what they have in their bank a/c at the end of the month.

Like it or not, millions of Americans are voting for Trump primarily because of his excellent work on the economy. And the realisation that a Biden administration is very likely to destroy those economic gains.

Biden's flip flopping on issues like fracking and fossil fuels, and the constant bickering in general with the DNC about the green new deal etc, is driving many people away from them. Not to mention all the peaceful protestors!

Laugh at this folks, don't bother responding.

Kermit.de.frog · 03-11-2020 10:53pm

CNN now saying poll says clear majority support Obamacare and that the Supreme Court should not overturn it.

Confusion everywhere

suicide_circus · 03-11-2020 10:53pm

Deleted User wrote: »

He's a black Hispanic white supremacist..

Theyre the worst

Kermit.de.frog · 03-11-2020 10:54pm

CNN 60% in exit poll say they are dissatisfied with the federal government. lol

endainoz · 03-11-2020 10:54pm

sheeplover55 wrote: »

2016 Fox had the best neutral coverage, Brett Baier and Megan Kelly - will hop on their soon, I'd assume it'll be Baier and Martha MacCallum

Best joke of the night so far.

Hurrache · 03-11-2020 10:54pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

CNN now saying poll says clear majority support Obamacare and that the Supreme Court should not overturn it.

Confusion everywhere

It's not a CNN poll though, Fox already went through the same results before CNN.

sheeplover55 · 03-11-2020 10:54pm

eagle eye wrote: »

Laugh at this folks, don't bother responding.

Says the man who said there's zero chance Biden wins a couple months back because he's too old and Trump would walk it.

You flip and flop depending on what the trends say while placing your assertiveness on others, it's not a good look.

Qiaonasen · 03-11-2020 10:55pm

Lawlesz wrote: »

Where are we all watching this? Sky/CNN/BBC/Al Jazeera? What will have the least amount of bias? :pac:

Am watching fox at the moment.

omega man · 03-11-2020 10:55pm

60% see climate change as an issue.

namloc1980 · 03-11-2020 10:55pm

Hurrache wrote: »

The exit poll results based on the various topics are not good for Trump anyway, topics being the environment, federal government, Obama care, Roe Vs Wade don't reflect his stance.

The voter issues in the Fox News exit polls look better for Biden while the CNN exit poll looks better for Trump. The world is upside down. :pac:

Sierra Oscar · 03-11-2020 10:55pm

namloc1980 wrote: »

The voter issues in the Fox News exit polls look better for Biden while the CNN exit poll looks better for Trump. The world is upside down. :pac:

The Fox News exit poll data is fairly terrible for Trump. The conspiracy theorist would think they are trying to get the Republicans out to vote!

Kermit.de.frog · 03-11-2020 10:55pm

Hurrache wrote: »

It's not a CNN poll though, Fox already went through the same results before CNN.

I'm just saying the results are bizarre.

Something for everyone.

Trump vs Biden 2020, Ultimate battle for the fate of our universe (pt 3)Read OP 01/11

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