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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

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    #6302
    MacronvFrugals
    Registered Users Posts: 1,017 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals


    cnocbui wrote: »
    Such as?

    Australia recently screwed the pooch totally in this regard, but I am not aware of Ireland getting it wrong.

    From what i understand they're relying on cellular for a decent part of it when imo it should be all fibre.

    Then theres the ownership structure which is meh to say the least, we're paying all this money and wont even own the infra.


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    #6303
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    MacronvFrugals wrote: »
    From what i understand they're relying on cellular for a decent part of it when imo it should be all fibre.

    Then theres the ownership structure which is meh to say the least, we're paying all this money and wont even own the infra.

    I don't think wireless is being considered due to the densification requirements to make it work. I may be open to correction on this but i believe the wireless suggestion was also rejected due to the 5g link to Covid. Added to that, the possibility of using Microsoft Data Centres for Telco cloud was a no go considering Bill Gates being responsible for the development of the virus


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    #6304
    MacronvFrugals
    Registered Users Posts: 1,017 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals


    Hubertj wrote: »
    I don't think wireless is being considered due to the densification requirements to make it work. I may be open to correction on this but i believe the wireless suggestion was also rejected due to the 5g link to Covid. Added to that, the possibility of using Microsoft Data Centres for Telco cloud was a no go considering Bill Gates being responsible for the development of the virus

    Thanks Hub i thought the cellular to fill gaps was still on the table, are they going with fibre>copper to the last mile?


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    #6305
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,822 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Pelezico wrote: »
    This surely evidence of a strong housing market. Remarkable in the face of the deepest recession of tge last 100 years.
    PropQueries wrote: »
    The same report states "However, we estimate transaction volumes through July and August were still down 37%" compared to Q3 2019.
    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    Prices kept going up even with less buyers and less bidders. That means strong confidence

    Surprisingly enough I have an alternative theory to the strong confidence in the market one!

    As most of us realize the supply and demand demand dynamics of buying houses are different from that of most other purchasing decisions, for example, buying apples.

    Nobody has to save for a deposit to buy an apple, nor are they constrained by their income limits as to the quality of apple they can buy, nor are they worried that their ability to access the apple market might have gone this next time years.

    That’s because the vast majority of people who buy apples are cash buyers and as far as apples are concerned all buyers are equal.

    As far as housing is concerned all buyers are not equal. The strongest buyers tend to be cash buyers, the weakest tend to be FTBers.

    In today’s housing market, evidence seems to suggest that Transaction volumes are dropping, % of cash buyers vs mortgage buyers is dropping, and the number of FTBers as % of mortgage buyers is rising.

    In other words the strongest buyers are leaving the market, and the weakest buyers are panic buying. The forced buyers are currently sustaining prices. this is not market confidence, they are buying because they feel they have to do so now.

    It may last forever, it may not. Who knows.


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    #6306
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,280 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    PropQueries wrote: »
    IRES REIT is the primary one who is public and must inform investors of vacancy rates. But, they have mastered the art of renting to the state.

    There was a documentary on RTE about one of their new built housing estates in Dublin 15 a couple of years ago if anyone can find the link to it. I think nearly all were rented to the state at c. €2,400 per month and the tenants were shocked when they learned of the rent. It was an interesting watch at the time.

    If that is the case- it would seem that the State is the one paying top dollar for rental properties- and is actively setting the standard for all private sector tenants.

    I sincerely hope that if this is the case- that the State cops the hell on, and pays a more reasonable rate- so rents float downwards for ordinary tenants who actually pay their own rent.


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    #6307
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    MacronvFrugals wrote: »
    Thanks Hub i thought the cellular to fill gaps was still on the table, are they going with fibre>copper to the last mile?

    I’d have to ask 1 of the geeks in work to answer that properly. Mmwave, base stations, blah blah


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    #6308
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,822 ✭✭✭hometruths


    The_Conductor wrote: »
    If that is the case- it would seem that the State is the one paying top dollar for rental properties- and is actively setting the standard for all private sector tenants.

    I sincerely hope that if this is the case- that the State cops the hell on, and pays a more reasonable rate- so rents float downwards for ordinary tenants who actually pay their own rent.

    This is a very important point.

    Various government policies and actions/inactions have incentivized property owners to keep them vacant (or disincentivised them from having them occupied).

    This in turn creates shortages and pushes up rents, forcing the government into long term leases at high rents with landlords - thereby creating a floor on rents.

    This is will continue until the government recognizes that their policies are causing the vacancies, thus the shortage, thus the rent increases.

    As you say, they need to cop the hell on. But will they?!


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    #6309
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,956 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    MacronvFrugals wrote: »
    Thanks Hub i thought the cellular to fill gaps was still on the table, are they going with fibre>copper to the last mile?

    I don't think there will be any copper involved - that's what fibre to the cabinet was and it was a mistake that won't be repeated. The NBP specs state:
    Passive Access Wholesale Products
    (1)Duct Access Product;
    (2)Pole Access Product;
    (3)Unbundled Fibre Access Product;
    (4)DarkFibre Product; and
    (5)Radio Tower and Mast Access Product
    file:///Users/anon/Downloads/76781_d66386ad-2bb7-4bca-86de-61c2a763d5d1.pdf
    Under the National Broadband Plan (NBP) Contract, National Broadband Ireland (NBI) will roll out a high speed and future proofed broadband network within the State Intervention Area and will operate and manage this network over the next 25 years.
    https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/16717-national-broadband-plan-contract/

    It's fibre from here on out, as copper is not future proof. The fibre coming into my house can go to at least 20 GBps by changing the electronics at both ends.

    As it's just not practical to take fibre to sparsely scattered and remote houses, those may well have to be serviced via 5G and such, but it's not compromising.


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    #6310
    MacronvFrugals
    Registered Users Posts: 1,017 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals


    [/QUOTE]As it's just not practical to take fibre to sparsely scattered and remote houses, those may well have to be serviced via 5G and such, but it's not compromising.[/QUOTE]

    The compromising part remains to be seen in fairness, as the users rack up i can see issues arising.


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    #6311
    Tea drinker
    Registered Users Posts: 2,818 ✭✭✭Tea drinker


    smurgen wrote: »
    I think demand is about to collapse. The WFH/ relocation of workers is being looked at by multinationals. They are looking at the tax implications of this with the accounting and tax firms currently.

    https://twitter.com/Independent_ie/status/1282302449387286528?s=19
    This type of issue around tax is well understood by MNC's at least it used to be. I'd expect this is no surprise.

    The surprise can be if the companies see remote working as workable long term, and feel they can do the same or similar quality from another much more remote location then the jobs and tax goes completely. Maybe even the brass plaque too


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    #6312
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,956 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    MacronvFrugals wrote: »
    As it's just not practical to take fibre to sparsely scattered and remote houses, those may well have to be serviced via 5G and such, but it's not compromising.

    The compromising part remains to be seen in fairness, as the users rack up i can see issues arising.

    If your nearest neighbour is 1km away and you want 1GBps or greater internet speeds, my suggestion is to move to where you can get such speeds.


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    #6313
    Timing belt
    Registered Users Posts: 3,427 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Tea drinker wrote: »
    This type of issue around tax is well understood by MNC's at least it used to be. I'd expect this is no surprise.

    The surprise can be if the companies see remote working as workable long term, and feel they can do the same or similar quality from another much more remote location then the jobs and tax goes completely. Maybe even the brass plaque too

    WFH model was here well before covid as was outsourcing work to cheaper labour markets so don’t see it changing the dynamic that much with the exception of employees looking for the opportunity to WFH for childcare & transport costs etc.

    Yes more will WFH and there will be less demand for housing in Dublin as a result but there is still a shortage of supply so will barely move the dial on house prices however may lower rents or at least reduce the increases.


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    #6314
    Tea drinker
    Registered Users Posts: 2,818 ✭✭✭Tea drinker


    Timing belt wrote: »
    WFH model was here well before covid as was outsourcing work to cheaper labour markets so don’t see it changing the dynamic that much with the exception of employees looking for the opportunity to WFH for childcare & transport costs etc.

    Yes more will WFH and there will be less demand for housing in Dublin as a result but there is still a shortage of supply so will barely move the dial on house prices however may lower rents or at least reduce the increases.
    I know people in a business with some remote working were previously refused WFH by HR. It's a completely different approach now with en masse WFH compared to occassional 1 day a month or some convenient - 3 days from home. I don't think the company I'm in are "there yet" for making a "best shoring" type decision but this is definitely going to focus some minds.
    It's a facor. The other thing is people in the likes of Dublin probably suffered more than their country cousins during lockdown, and the lesson there is those that can will bail in your scenario above or others.


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    #6315
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    schmittel wrote: »
    This is a very important point.

    Various government policies and actions/inactions have incentivized property owners to keep them vacant (or disincentivised them from having them occupied).

    This in turn creates shortages and pushes up rents, forcing the government into long term leases at high rents with landlords - thereby creating a floor on rents.

    This is will continue until the government recognizes that their policies are causing the vacancies, thus the shortage, thus the rent increases.

    As you say, they need to cop the hell on. But will they?!

    I think the major problem is our public and civil servants charged with advising, implementing and executing policy it’s not their money, there is no accountability and they don’t care. Its easier for them to pay what is asked, tick a box and move on.


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    #6316
    Timing belt
    Registered Users Posts: 3,427 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Tea drinker wrote: »
    I know people in a business with some remote working were previously refused WFH by HR. It's a completely different approach now with en masse WFH compared to occassional 1 day a month or some convenient - 3 days from home. I don't think the company I'm in are "there yet" for making a "best shoring" type decision but this is definitely going to focus some minds.
    It's a facor. The other thing is people in the likes of Dublin probably suffered more than their country cousins during lockdown, and the lesson there is those that can will bail in your scenario above or others.

    It will focus minds your right because there is big savings to a company with a WFH policy even if it is 2 days a week as a lot of companies have been doing in London for the past 5 years. but it won’t impact house prices as most of the people that will benefit from such a policy will be renting and all that will happen is rents will taper off.

    Even if people sold there houses and moved down the country there is sufficient demand for good quality homes in Dublin that it won’t impact house prices.


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    #6317
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    schmittel wrote: »
    Can you link to what you were reading, I'd be interested to read it as well, so I can understand it better?

    And I've always piped on about 6% being the long term average vacancy rate in a functioning market!

    http://airo.maynoothuniversity.ie/news/breakdown-housing-vacancy-figures-ireland

    What is interesting is the 4000 vacant units in Dublin City giving a 7.7% vacancy rate.


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    #6318
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Timing belt wrote: »
    You talk about 290bn of lending and property. The majority of it loan books that the funds bought cheap and as long as the majority repayment are made the fund makes money. I would speculate that the housing stock they purchased was minimal. Yes you have reit’s and private equity funds buying stock for the rental income but these are a very different business model.

    In 2008, AIB, BOI and Anglo had loans related to property and construction of c. €157 billion (not including mortgages).

    I think we can probably assume that most of the €200 billion in property and business loans purchased by the international investment funds between 2012 and 2016 were related to property. The banks and NAMA weren’t selling many of their non property related performing loans.

    Link here: https://www.tcd.ie/Economics/assets/pdf/MScEPS/Money%20and%20Banking/moneynamking%20week12.pdf


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    #6319
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    Was looking at rent prices in County Louth in our town last night.Rent prices went down at about 25 per cent per last couple weeks and they does not look like the property was AirBnB property before.Before 1 bedroom in house cost at average 500 per month now around 350/400 in 2/3 bedroom house.The amount of supply remain the same.


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    #6320
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Mod Note

    Discussion of vacant properties moved here:

    linky


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    #6321
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    Springy Turf wrote: »
    Undated article that badly summarises a freely available ESRI report from may - not news.

    If you have based any of your own opinions on sources like “dowlingfinancial” then god help you.


    ESRI article:
    https://www.esri.ie/system/files/publications/WP661_0.pdf

    God help you my friend !
    This time not that old and not a ESRI
    And even NOT MY WORDS :

    Yet many of those in middle-class jobs working from home may find themselves unemployed next spring, if a cash-strapped State goes ahead with its plan to unwind the wage subsidy scheme that has kept some of them from redundancy. That could result in another slump.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/there-may-be-trouble-ahead-for-the-housing-market-1.4368797

    And you same as other will say again : This is your fantasies ! Nothing gona happen ! Because is no supply !


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    #6322
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    You are right guys !
    There will be no supply and huge demand !
    The buyers will have problems with cash supply which will be on huge demand !


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    #6323
    Mad_maxx
    Registered Users Posts: 13,505 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx


    im planning to buy another house in the next few months with the intention of leasing to the local authority for twenty years

    i focus on houses in less desirable areas but which are structurally sound and require little investment , these houses have less far to fall in my opinion


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    #6324
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    Mad_maxx wrote: »
    im planning to buy another house in the next few months with the intention of leasing to the local authority for twenty years

    i focus on houses in less desirable areas but which are structurally sound and require little investment , these houses have l ess far to fall in my opinion
    Be careful about property taxation coming which I think will be mad heavy and will push many people away from similar business


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    #6325
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    neutral guy wrote: »
    You are right guys !
    There will be no supply and huge demand !
    The buyers will have problems with cash supply which will be on huge demand !


    People have cash, a lot of investors are coming forward with cash in the hands
    Not everyone needs a mortage


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    #6326
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    People have cash, a lot of investors are coming forward with cash in the hands
    Not everyone needs a mortage
    Any proper investor with cash will not buy any property today/tomorrow/in next 12 months.Today we have unique opportunities invest cash to a lot better places than property.Here I talking about those who has brain and cash.
    People who was saving money for property since last recession has enough brains not buy property even if property will cost 20 per cent less !
    The other part who has cash will have buy food because will lose jobs/pay for kids education/own bills/etc !
    Please stop dreaming about somebody will buy property ! Which also will be heavily taxed ( like property for rent ) !


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    #6327
    cubatahavana
    Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭cubatahavana


    neutral guy wrote: »
    Any proper investor with cash will not buy any property today/tomorrow/in next 12 months.Today we have unique opportunities invest cash to a lot better places than property.Here I talking about those who has brain and cash.
    People who was saving money for property since last recession has enough brains not buy property even if property will cost 20 per cent less !
    The other part who has cash will have buy food because will lose jobs/pay for kids education/own bills/etc !
    Please stop dreaming about somebody will buy property ! Which also will be heavily taxed ( like property for rent ) !

    So no one is buying other than idiots, right? I’m tired of your posts. You’re the smartest guy here, it seems. You’ve been around in Ireland at least since the last recession and after living here for more than 12 years, you cannot write one proper sentence.


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    #6328
    Mad_maxx
    Registered Users Posts: 13,505 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx


    cubatahavana wrote: »
    So no one is buying other than idiots, right? I’m tired of your posts. You’re the smartest guy here, it seems. You’ve been around in Ireland at least since the last recession and after living here for more than 12 years, you cannot write one proper sentence.

    assumed he was polish ?


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    #6329
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    neutral guy wrote: »
    Any proper investor with cash will not buy any property today/tomorrow/in next 12 months.Today we have unique opportunities invest cash to a lot better places than property.Here I talking about those who has brain and cash.
    People who was saving money for property since last recession has enough brains not buy property even if property will cost 20 per cent less !
    The other part who has cash will have buy food because will lose jobs/pay for kids education/own bills/etc !
    Please stop dreaming about somebody will buy property ! Which also will be heavily taxed ( like property for rent ) !


    Investors are still buying properties, they have been doing it all year despite signs of the incoming recessions where already there
    Whatever your opinions are, they have the cash and they are buying properties


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    #6330
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    Investors are still buying properties, they have been doing it all year despite signs of the incoming recessions where already there
    Whatever your opinions are, they have the cash and they are buying properties
    I will better buy Ryanair or Norvegian or other shares than buy property for rent to local autorities :D
    When hotels renting rooms for price of appartments in Dublin city centre.


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    #6331
    Vieira82
    Closed Accounts Posts: 333 ✭✭Vieira82


    neutral guy wrote: »
    Any proper investor with cash will not buy any property today/tomorrow/in next 12 months.Today we have unique opportunities invest cash to a lot better places than property.Here I talking about those who has brain and cash.
    People who was saving money for property since last recession has enough brains not buy property even if property will cost 20 per cent less !
    The other part who has cash will have buy food because will lose jobs/pay for kids education/own bills/etc !
    Please stop dreaming about somebody will buy property ! Which also will be heavily taxed ( like property for rent ) !

    Blackstone probably the biggest landlord in the world right now has billions of dollars waiting to be used to buy property. Anyone that will get desperate and sell at a lower price will be eaten by investors like Blackstone and there's loads of them. They literally are hoarding houses and I am sure, artifically infating the market atm.


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