US Presidential Election 2020

Melanchthon · 01-09-2020 09:31PM

pixelburp wrote: »

Lord save us from the broken record on this thread of the mythological Shy Trump Voter. That's some labyrinthine theorising that inherently private, anonymous polling somehow gets loops back to employers, in turn folks for supporting Trump. 2016 was not proof of the Silent Majority, Trump was 1 in 3 chance and swung Undecideds. It wasn't an aberration to anyone except those convinced Clinton was due. Think this is the 3rd time in 2 weeks I've said this.

So your arguing against the Shy Tory effect?

What's your basis for dismissing it ? It's a factor taken into account by most pollsters to varying degrees.
So your saying the pollsters are wrong for taking those sort of factors into account? But also that the polls are accurate?
That's a weird argument.

(Saying this as someone who thinks at the minute it's 60-40 too Biden winning)

Timberrrrrrrr · 01-09-2020 09:32PM

Mullaghteelin wrote: »

Democratic run cities like Portland and Seattle have refused to prosecute rioters and have told the police to stand down. Trump tried to send in federal law enforcement weeks ago, but the Dems equated that with Trump sending in the gestapo. CNN had a field day.
The media and Dems have spent 4 years telling the rioters that Trump is one step away from H!tler. They are equally guilty, if not more so, of "stirring and encouraging" the tensions.

And Republican run cities like Fort Worth have done the same, what's your point?

TomOnBoard · 01-09-2020 09:34PM

Mullaghteelin wrote: »

Democratic run cities like Portland and Seattle have refused to prosecute rioters and have told the police to stand down. Trump tried to send in federal law enforcement weeks ago, but the Dems equated that with Trump sending in the gestapo. CNN had a field day.
The media and Dems have spent 4 years telling the rioters that Trump is one step away from H!tler. They are equally guilty, if not more so, of "stirring and encouraging" the tensions.

At this point, Trump is not one step away from a Hitler. .. He IS what Hitler was around January 1933..

Water John · 01-09-2020 09:38PM

Melanchthon wrote: »

So your arguing against the Shy Tory effect?

What's your basis for dismissing it ? It's a factor taken into account by most pollsters to varying degrees.
So your saying the pollsters are wrong for taking those sort of factors into account? But also that the polls are accurate?
That's a weird argument.

(Saying this as someone who thinks at the minute it's 60-40 too Biden winning)

Various poll cos have their own set of variables which they apply. Some posters are indicating they think some polls should give weight/more weight to shy Trumpers. They give no valid argument but just the feeling in their gut.
Has no validity.
From all that we can observe, if the Dems can get their vote out and past the hurdles of voting then Biden/Harris should prevail.

Shelga · 01-09-2020 09:39PM

Regarding the poll in Current Affairs, it’s on who you think will win, not who you want to win, right?

I despise Trump but I think he’ll still win.

01-09-2020 09:44PM

Why does San Francisco have such a large homeless population? Do they all grow up in SF and become homeless? Or do they move there for some reason?

rossie1977 · 01-09-2020 10:07PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Why does San Francisco have such a large homeless population? Do they all grow up in SF and become homeless? Or do they move there for some reason?

Many cities throw homeless in jail or move them on. California does not so you have people arriving all over the country

Water John · 01-09-2020 10:23PM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

What does that issue have to do with Trump?

We're not talking about over 182,000 Covid dead.

Melanchthon · 01-09-2020 10:25PM

Water John wrote: »

Various poll cos have their own set of variables which they apply. Some posters are indicating they think some polls should give weight/more weight to shy Trumpers. They give no valid argument but just the feeling in their gut.
Has no validity.
From all that we can observe, if the Dems can get their vote out and past the hurdles of voting then Biden/Harris should prevail.

I understand what weighted polls are, what I don't understand is the posters dismissal of the idea that some Trump voters are going to not going to tell a pollster that they are voting for Trump, like it's a well known phenomenon taken into account to varying degrees by pollsters.

Either there is really trump voters who aren't straight up to pollsters or pollsters are wrong as a lot of them do make this adjustment, the argument put forward is contradictory.

Biden will win because he is ahead of in the polls but those same polls are wrong because they are often adjusted for a factor that according to the poster doesn't actually exist ???

Dyr · 01-09-2020 10:37PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Why does San Francisco have such a large homeless population? Do they all grow up in SF and become homeless? Or do they move there for some reason?

They should be housed soon enough, plenty of spare housing in SF now.

Water John · 01-09-2020 10:37PM

Polling cos regularly adjust their models. If they have come across what you describe, they will incorporate that in their raw data analysis.
If you live in Ireland, historically polls had to adjust as there was shy FF voters. Thus they did better in elections than raw polling data indicated.

Some posters would be doing it X 2 as the polls would be already doing it, if it exists.

Back to Covid, over 6M cases in the US.

StringerBell · 02-09-2020 09:10AM

I don't think any, or many people anyway, deny that there are Trump supporters out there who lie about their preference. Jesus I would if I had any kind of self awareness of what exactly I was supporting. I think the issue comes from how significant the numbers are, how likely it is to have an impact on the outcome basically, the polls were pretty much spot on last time out. Any state that was tipped to go one way but went the other was well within the margin of error, the polling was actually superb when you consider the size of that country.

Someone threw up a sensationalist headline about how republicans are twice as likely as democrat voters, the difference being about 5% I believe as in 5% of dem voters said they would possibly lie about their preference so it was 10/11% of republicans, there were issues with that particular poll also of course but it serves to highlight that it doesn't really seem significant.

The silent majority is a fantasy, right up there with the invisible empire. Neither exist in reality. The election will be close, it's a very divided country, nothing has changed and nothing will change as we get closer. All things being equal Biden wins, and probably quite handily, but all things are not equal as we know so it will come down to the wire I'm sure.

No point getting up in a heap about anything at this point, the majority of the country disapprove of the current potus, they disapprove of the direction he is taking the country, they disapprove of his handling of many topics, covid being just one. The more people can vote the better, he knows it, his supporters don't because let's be honest, if they had the capability for critical thought we wouldn't be here (in fact many of the who are of the age would almost certainly have got a great laugh off comical Ali but don't have any idea that they are the internet version of him) and the democrats know it. Get the vote out, get the votes counter, get rid of this grifter and figure out the rest once he's gone.

TomOnBoard · 02-09-2020 09:50AM

Water John wrote: »

Back to Covid, over 6M cases in the US.

This ^^^^

And, as Trump moves ever further away from the reality of science towards ever deepening bat**** crazy conspiracy theories, he's basically washing his hands of the Covid problem. "It Is What It Is! "

His new advisor Scott Atlas has taken on the role of feeding Trump bite size pieces of un-scientific claptrap that tickles Trump's tastebuds, the latest being messaging that amounts to "Herd Immunity is Good... Just Go For It, and Let Covid Rip... Between Herd Immunity and an October Vaccine, We'll be Grand!"

This fits very well with the overall narrative that "We Gotta Save the Economy, Stupid! If a Couple Million People Have to Die, That's OK! So Long as They're not White Rich Folk, They Should be Glad to Prove They're as Patriotic as those Truly Patriotic White Folks who Protect 'Murica from Shadowy Forces with Their ARs and Glocks and Their Kick-Arse F-450 Trucks Every. Single. Day."

spacecoyote · 02-09-2020 09:52AM

I think people also need to make a distinction between standard polling and exit polling.

I think the shy Tory effect is a bit more evident when people are asked in public, face to face who they voted for as opposed to a phone call in the safety of their homes

Quin_Dub · 02-09-2020 11:05AM

Melanchthon wrote: »

I understand what weighted polls are, what I don't understand is the posters dismissal of the idea that some Trump voters are going to not going to tell a pollster that they are voting for Trump, like it's a well known phenomenon taken into account to varying degrees by pollsters.

Either there is really trump voters who aren't straight up to pollsters or pollsters are wrong as a lot of them do make this adjustment, the argument put forward is contradictory.

Biden will win because he is ahead of in the polls but those same polls are wrong because they are often adjusted for a factor that according to the poster doesn't actually exist ???

There was a poll done last week - specifically asking if people were telling the truth in polling. It wasn't as explicit as that , but they were finding out if people were hiding their true opinions.

The upshot from their data was that about 10% of Trump supporters were likely to hide their preference to pollsters and about 5% of Biden supporters would do the same.

It didn't differentiate from those that said they would lie and say they supported the other side and those that would declare themselves "undecided" when in fact they had already made up their mind.

Given the relatively low levels of "shy" voters and the likely mix of "full switch" vs. "Pretend Undecideds" it might tighten things slightly , but not enough to change the head-line results.

droidus · 02-09-2020 11:11AM

The efficacy of that study was discussed upthread, but you have to wonder how applicable it is anyway as the majority of polls are online now.

Water John · 02-09-2020 03:01PM

This is an Opinium Poll;
'It found Biden leading Trump by a huge 15 points – 56% to 41% – among those who are registered to vote and indicate that they are certain to do so. In swing states Wisconsin and Florida, Biden enjoys leads of 14 points (56% v 42%) and seven points up (53% v 46%) respectively.'

One really wonders what people are thinking, for them to say, they think Trump will win. there seems a lot of people who voted Trump in 2016 and won't do so again.

StringerBell · 02-09-2020 04:07PM

Anything to be said for having UN inspectors in to verify the validity of the results? As you would in any other country where it is know the leader will steal the election if he can.

gmisk · 02-09-2020 04:09PM

I think Trump has totally come undone
https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1300918107976986624?s=09

I still wouldn't put too much faith in poles, and still a long way to go before voting.
Let's be honest Trump will do anything possible to hold onto power

accensi0n · 02-09-2020 04:15PM

gmisk wrote: »

I think Trump has totally come undone
https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1300918107976986624?s=09

I still wouldn't put too much faith in poles, and still a long way to go before voting.
Let's be honest Trump will do anything possible to hold onto power

What's the problem with what he's saying?
Sound like he's describing a situation which occurred where some violent protestors were throwing cans of soup (potentially deadly) and then trying to claim that what they're using as projectiles are actually being used for food.

BonnieSituation · 02-09-2020 04:33PM

accensi0n wrote: »

What's the problem with what he's saying?
Sound like he's describing a situation which occurred where some violent protestors were throwing cans of soup (potentially deadly) and then trying to claim that what they're using as projectiles are actually being used for food.

We all heard what he said. We get the premise.

Now I ask ya, you have no issue with him dealing in the minutiae of such alleged riotous behaviour?

Or his stumbling, stuttering delivery where he had to repeat himself because it's quite clear that it took him a bit to work it out himself. Honestly, it's a bizarre statement for a president to give. That you don't see it as bizarre says it all really.

droidus · 02-09-2020 04:36PM

gmisk wrote: »

I think Trump has totally come undone
https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1300918107976986624?s=09

I still wouldn't put too much faith in poles, and still a long way to go before voting.
Let's be honest Trump will do anything possible to hold onto power

An actual soup nazi.

salmocab · 02-09-2020 04:36PM

Is getting hit with a tin of soup worse than getting hit by a brick? I’d say it’s much the same but without a jagged edge.

Igotadose · 02-09-2020 04:37PM

gmisk wrote: »

I think Trump has totally come undone
https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1300918107976986624?s=09

I still wouldn't put too much faith in poles, and still a long way to go before voting.
Let's be honest Trump will do anything possible to hold onto power

Getting a Captain Queeg vibe. Next up will be strawberries.

StringerBell · 02-09-2020 04:39PM

salmocab wrote: »

Is getting hit with a tin of soup worse than getting hit by a brick? I’d say it’s much the same but without a jagged edge.

Yeah cause with bricks, I mean we all know bricks are too heavy to pick up and throw, that's what he said sure. Can't throw bricks, and come to think of it I can't think of any other time in history where I have in fact seen anyone throw bricks.

TomOnBoard · 02-09-2020 04:43PM

StringerBell wrote: »

Anything to be said for having UN inspectors in to verify the validity of the results? As you would in any other country where it is know the leader will steal the election if he can.

An excellent notion.

Arrange both UN and EU election monitoring teams to be drafted in to monitor the actual polling process, including use of threatening/intimidation efforts by Trump acolytes whom he has promised will be out in droves 'checking' voters at polling stations across the country. Further teams could be rolled out to ensure honesty underpins counting and results production.

Like, Trump claims that Law and Order no longer applies in Democrat led cities and states, aaaand the Dems are trying to steal the election from him, so surely they need all the help they can get to ensure free and fair elections take place, just like in many other Banana Republics where UN/EU monitoring takes place...

droidus · 02-09-2020 04:45PM

TomOnBoard wrote: »

An excellent notion.

Arrange both UN and EU election monitoring teams to be drafted in to monitor the actual polling process, including use of threatening/intimidation efforts by Trump acolytes whom he has promised will be out in droves 'checking' voters at polling stations across the country. Further teams could be rolled out to ensure honesty underpins counting and results production.

Like, Trump claims that Law and Order no longer applies in Democrat led cities and states, aaaand the Dems are trying to steal the election from him, so surely they need all the help they can get to ensure free and fair elections take place, just like in many other Banana Republics where UN/EU monitoring takes place...

The OCSE actually does this:

https://theconversation.com/international-election-observers-evaluating-us-midterm-elections-will-face-limitations-105631

As does the OAS:

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/11/election-observers-united-states/506717/

accensi0n · 02-09-2020 04:51PM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

We all heard what he said. We get the premise.

Now I ask ya, you have no issue with him dealing in the minutiae of such alleged riotous behaviour?

No, he should focus on something more important.

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Or his stumbling, stuttering delivery where he had to repeat himself because it's quite clear.

No, he should be more coherent.

Timberrrrrrrr · 02-09-2020 04:58PM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

I dunno I say being hit by a soup can is better than being shot by some random pro Trump neo nazi with a semi automatic

"I had to shoot him your honour, he was tooled up with Oxtail and Minestrone"

everlast75 · 02-09-2020 05:01PM

Whilst the poles should be taken with a grain of salt, it is discouraging to not have Biden romping away with this. However, there are some small positive signs...

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1301187483586252802?s=20

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1301062332488003585?s=20

US Presidential Election 2020

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