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2020 the battle of the septuagenarians - Trump vs Biden, Part 2

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Comments

  • #2312
    uptherebels
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,092 ✭✭✭uptherebels


    ELM327 wrote: »
    You see, this is the stuff the left would ignore.
    But it's the same reason that killary lost in 2016 and sleepy joe will lose this year. The silent majority.

    What silent majority?


  • #2313
    Cody montana
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,618 ✭✭✭Cody montana


    Overheal wrote: »
    Any opinions of your own that aren’t plagiarized?

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/12/26/best-things-trump-has-done/

    Not being obtuse, but easy to spot who this poster was now.

    The federalist copy and paste artist springs to mind!


  • #2314
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,967 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    ELM327 wrote: »
    You see, this is the stuff the left would ignore.
    But it's the same reason that killary lost in 2016 and sleepy joe will lose this year. The silent majority.

    There is no "Silent Majority" , there wasn't one on 2016 and there isn't one now.

    This idea that people are lying to pollsters because they are ashamed to admit they are Trump voters is utterly ridiculous.

    I can accept that people may not want to reveal their voting preferences to Work Colleagues , neighbours or In-laws. I know I don't discuss politics in those situations either.

    But the idea that somehow telling an anonymous pollster over the phone or via a web survey is something that people would be reticent to do it is patently ridiculous. and even if they did feel a pang of shame , would they not choose "undecided" instead?

    There are far less undecided voters this time around.

    Despite the "The polls were wrong " mantra that gets trotted out - No they weren't , where they were weak was not looking closely enough at the swing state levels and being focused on the National number.

    That is not the case this time around , all the major polling companies are focused on those States are tracking them closely.

    Trumps alleged "Silent Majority" in 2016 amounted to 77,000 votes or so across a handful of states out of the 136M+ votes cast.

    Or more specifically , 77,774 votes out of just shy of 15M Votes cast in the 3 States he won to take him over 270 - Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, which is about 0.5%.

    That is not a "Silent Majority" or anything like it , in fact he won a lot of the Red states by smaller margins than previous elections

    In Texas for example , he won by 9 points , Romney won it by 16 and McCain won it by 12.


  • #2315
    Muahahaha
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,775 ✭✭✭✭Muahahaha


    Cody montana wrote: »
    Looks like Michelle Obama was the star speaker at the Dem convention.

    Trump seems to be running on hate, fear and lies.
    Biden on compassion, science and change.

    Unfortunately trump won with hate, fear and lies the first time.

    Have watched a few clips of the DNC last night and this speaker stood out. Shes a lady from Arizona whose father was a Trump supporter and voter who died of the virus because he was influenced by Trump
    Urquiza talked about her father's trust in Trump, and how he went out to a karaoke bar in May after the state reopened businesses.
    “He had faith in Donald Trump," she said. "[He] listened to him, believed him and his mouthpieces when they said that coronavirus was under control and going to disappear; that it was OK to end social distancing rules before it was safe and that if you had no underlying health conditions."A few weeks after the karaoke outing, Urquiza said her father was hospitalized and put on a ventilator.
    "After five agonizing days, he died alone in the ICU with a nurse holding his hand," she said as the slideshow displayed an image of her father in the hospital.
    Urquiza said that Trump didn't cause the virus, "but his dishonesty and his irresponsible actions made it so much worse."

    The video is here, it is quite moving and she said that when her father was on his deathbed he said that he felt like a fool for trusting Trump
    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/kristin-urquiza-daughter-lost-father-covid-19-blames/story?id=72433606


  • #2316
    The Unbearables
    Closed Accounts Posts: 359 ✭✭The Unbearables


    The Presidents campaign seems to be gaining momentum at the right time. He's closed the gap in the polls over the last couple of weeks and bunker joe is going to need the silent majority to not vote to stand a chance.


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  • #2317
    The Unbearables
    Closed Accounts Posts: 359 ✭✭The Unbearables


    ELM327 wrote: »
    You see, this is the stuff the left would ignore.
    But it's the same reason that killary lost in 2016 and sleepy joe will lose this year. The silent majority.

    The silent majority will win out for the president as they did in 2016.


  • #2318
    uptherebels
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,092 ✭✭✭uptherebels


    The Unbearables wrote: »
    The Presidents campaign seems to be gaining momentum at the right time. He's closed the gap in the polls over the last couple of weeks and bunker joe is going to need the silent majority to not vote to stand a chance.

    Which polls are you referring to?


  • #2319
    Overheal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,683 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    The Unbearables wrote: »
    The silent majority will win out for the president as they did in 2016.

    Speaking of silent no comment on your plagiarism?


  • #2320
    duploelabs
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,020 ✭✭✭✭duploelabs


    The Unbearables wrote: »
    The silent majority will win out for the president as they did in 2016.

    Those silent majority you refer to isn't the same as the dog whistle that's referred to on far right publications. What won trump the election is the blue-collared workers who were disenfranchised as their man, Bernie, didn't get the nomination. So their choice was to vote for Hillary, who was fairly right side of the Democratic Party, or Trump, who had no real agenda apart from a few catchphrase empty promises like Build the Wall or Lock her Up (none of which did he actually succeed in doing in 4 years). Hillary was an extremely poor candidate so for those blue collared workers (and the undecideds who are about 33-37% of the electorate) they threw their vote at trump as they didn't know his form but it was better than the other.
    This time round, they know his form, and that won't win their vote as he's done nothing to appeal to those undecideds, and now Bernie is actively encouraging his voters to vote for Biden,
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election/bernie-sanders-speech-dnc-joe-biden-support-2020-election-donald-trump-a9675151.html
    So this nebulous 'silent majority' isn't there for Trump despite what you claim, and that's why he will not win in November


  • #2321
    amdublin
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,653 ✭✭✭✭amdublin


    Overheal wrote: »
    Speaking of silent no comment on your plagiarism?

    Not to be obtuse, but I predict you will never get a comment on this


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  • #2322
    ChikiChiki
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,949 ✭✭✭ChikiChiki


    I'm sure Donny will have something to say about Jacinda Ardern. Typically he lashes out when criticized by a female leader.


  • #2323
    amdublin
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,653 ✭✭✭✭amdublin


    After Day 1 of the Democratic National Convention, if I was Donald Trump I would be feeling the fear now

    My prediction is The silent majority are people:
    - embarrassed/ashamed they voted for him in 2016 (how bad can it be?) and are looking for redemption in their 2020 vote


  • #2324
    duploelabs
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,020 ✭✭✭✭duploelabs


    amdublin wrote: »
    Not to be obtuse, but I predict you will never get a comment on this

    You might get an acute response, but it's definitely not obtuse


  • #2325
    The Unbearables
    Closed Accounts Posts: 359 ✭✭The Unbearables


    duploelabs wrote: »
    Those silent majority you refer to isn't the same as the dog whistle that's referred to on far right publications. What won trump the election is the blue-collared workers who were disenfranchised as their man, Bernie, didn't get the nomination. So their choice was to vote for Hillary, who was fairly right side of the Democratic Party, or Trump, who had no real agenda apart from a few catchphrase empty promises like Build the Wall or Lock her Up (none of which did he actually succeed in doing in 4 years). Hillary was an extremely poor candidate so for those blue collared workers (and the undecideds who are about 33-37% of the electorate) they threw their vote at trump as they didn't know his form but it was better than the other.
    This time round, they know his form, and that won't win their vote as he's done nothing to appeal to those undecideds, and now Bernie is actively encouraging his voters to vote for Biden,
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election/bernie-sanders-speech-dnc-joe-biden-support-2020-election-donald-trump-a9675151.html
    So this nebulous 'silent majority' isn't there for Trump despite what you claim, and that's why he will not win in November

    I wish you well but I'm afraid you are incorrect.

    The president will be serving a second term.


  • #2326
    duploelabs
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,020 ✭✭✭✭duploelabs


    The Unbearables wrote: »
    I wish you well but I'm afraid you are incorrect.

    The president will be serving a second term.

    Care to quantify that? Or are you just going to copy and paste someone else's work and claim it as your own?


  • #2327
    Eric Cartman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,247 ✭✭✭✭Eric Cartman


    ChikiChiki wrote: »
    I'm sure Donny will have something to say about Jacinda Ardern. Typically he lashes out when criticized by a female leader.

    lashes out when criticised by any leader, but sure throw gender into the mix there just to make him seem like a sexist.


  • #2328
    ohnonotgmail
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,994 ✭✭✭✭ohnonotgmail


    ChikiChiki wrote: »
    I'm sure Donny will have something to say about Jacinda Ardern. Typically he lashes out when criticized by a female leader.

    expect the word Nasty to be used. Donnie has a very limited vocabulary when it comes to women.


  • #2329
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,559 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    The Unbearables wrote: »
    The silent majority will win out for the president as they did in 2016.

    Thing is, it looks incredibly likely for states to flip to Biden. Trump is not going to flip states.


  • #2330
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,967 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    The Unbearables wrote: »
    The Presidents campaign seems to be gaining momentum at the right time. He's closed the gap in the polls over the last couple of weeks and bunker joe is going to need the silent majority to not vote to stand a chance.

    No, he hasn't , not even a little.

    As was already answered to another supporter claiming the poll were moving in his favour.

    Yes ONE poll (from CNN) showed him closing the gap , but the majority did not.

    The gap has actually widened.
    Quin_Dub wrote: »
    Indeed - However almost every other new poll showed Biden maintaining a healthy lead.

    So much so that his "blended" lead in the RCP Average increased from 7.4 to 7.7 yesterday when they included the glut of polls over the last few days. It also has him above the key 50% threshold - A level Clinton never got to.

    His "Battleground state" lead is also holding steady.

    I would assume that there will be a barrage of polling this week and next to gauge the impact of the Conventions so we'll see where things lie at the end of the Month , but early voting starts in about 4 weeks.

    Trump won in 2016 by sweeping up a large chunk of the "undecided" voters. He did not win over any significant volume of Democrat voters

    There doesn't appear to be enough of those around this time though.

    Take the Battleground States from RCP

    Biden is on 48.7% , Trump on 44.4% so that means there are 6.9% of voters either undecided or going 3rd Party in those states. There were almost twice as many in that bucket at this same point in 2016.

    The Libertarian/Greens tickets will probably take 1-2% maybe 3% at a push , so that leaves at most 4-5% of undecided voters.

    To win Trump needs to move ALL of them over to him .

    A very very big ask.

    And just further on those "Battlegounds" - The GOP and Trump have already ceded the field in Michigan , they have suspended all advertising there , they know they can't win


  • #2331
    ELM327
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,197 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    The Unbearables wrote: »
    The silent majority will win out for the president as they did in 2016.
    Here's hoping


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  • #2332
    Carfacemandog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,044 ✭✭✭Carfacemandog


    ELM327 wrote: »
    Here's hoping

    When did you change your opinion from pro choice to pro life?

    You were claiming to be pro choice a month ago, but were also championing Trump making it harder for people to access abortion only a few posts back so I am interested about what changed for you in that time.


  • #2333
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,967 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    The Unbearables wrote: »
    The silent majority will win out for the president as they did in 2016.

    They didn't - No such thing existed.
    ELM327 wrote: »
    Here's hoping

    Indeed - But if he does win it won't be a "silent" vote , it will be clearly seen in the polling.

    Basically , if he can get the National polling gap down to 4% or below and get the Battleground states to around the break-even level, he has a shot.

    If polling stays anywhere close to where it is right now , he won't win.

    It's as simple as that.


  • #2334
    The Unbearables
    Closed Accounts Posts: 359 ✭✭The Unbearables


    Quin_Dub wrote: »
    They didn't - No such thing existed.



    Indeed - But if he does win it won't be a "silent" vote , it will be clearly seen in the polling.

    Basically , if he can get the National polling gap down to 4% or below and get the Battleground states to around the break-even level, he has a shot.

    If polling stays anywhere close to where it is right now , he won't win.

    It's as simple as that.

    Just like in 2016 ;)


  • #2335
    The Unbearables
    Closed Accounts Posts: 359 ✭✭The Unbearables


    Eric Cartman wrote: »
    lashes out when criticised by any leader, but sure throw gender into the mix there just to make him seem like a sexist.

    Just as well Jacinta isn't a women of colour. The permanently outraged mob would turn the volume up to 10 :eek:


  • #2336
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,967 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    The Unbearables wrote: »
    Just like in 2016 ;)

    I'm glad we agree on something - No Silent majority , Polling within 4% Nationally and neck and neck in the swing States was what won 2016.

    If Trump can get there , he has a shot - Right now though he's nowhere near that.

    And as I also said , a bigger problem for him is the lack of "undecided" voters.

    To get to the polling level required he's going to have to try to convince some current Biden voters to move over.

    Hard to see how he does that right now.


  • #2337
    ArmaniJeanss
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,906 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    The Unbearables wrote: »
    The president will be serving a second term.

    I wonder which prison that will be in.


  • #2338
    Carfacemandog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,044 ✭✭✭Carfacemandog


    For all this "silent majority" talk, despite the fact it shows a clear and wilful misunderstanding of what the word 'silent' even means, it also ignores the faxt that Trump didn't have a majority in 2016. He didn't even have the most votes.

    The most EC votes yes, and that is the silly system America runs on so he got the presidency. But the majority, or even plurality? No, he got neither.


  • #2339
    briany
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,339 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Quin_Dub wrote: »
    I'm glad we agree on something - No Silent majority , Polling within 4% Nationally and neck and neck in the swing States was what won 2016.

    If Trump can get there , he has a shot - Right now though he's nowhere near that.

    And as I also said , a bigger problem for him is the lack of "undecided" voters.

    To get to the polling level required he's going to have to try to convince some current Biden voters to move over.

    Hard to see how he does that right now.

    After 4 years of seeing how he does his job, I don't see undecided voters plumping for Trump again. On what basis would he be their pick? He doesn't even have any big promises this time around and has turned off a good number of traditional Republican voters.


  • #2340
    Muahahaha
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,775 ✭✭✭✭Muahahaha


    Id say Jacinda Ardern would be a much better POTUS than Donald Trump, she actually knows what leadership is


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  • #2341
    Overheal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,683 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    briany wrote: »
    After 4 years of seeing how he does his job, I don't see undecided voters plumping for Trump again. On what basis would he be their pick? He doesn't even have any big promises this time around and has turned off a good number of traditional Republican voters.

    That’s why they’re coordinating with Kanye to be a spoiler


This discussion has been closed.
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