Could Spain become a republic again?

An Ciarraioch · 03-08-2020 7:25pm #1

The former king of Spain, Juan Carlos, has tonight announced that he will go into exile, largely due to the financial scandals that have surrounded both him and the House of Bourbon in recent years. He had already been forced to abdicate in 2014 due to public reaction to an elephant safari in Botswana at a time of government austerity, while his daughter was also being investigated for embezzlement. Now, secret donations from Saudi Arabia have led to the initiation of a formal investigation, leading to the decision to leave the country, partly to relieve pressure on the current King Felipe. Of course, neither Catalonia nor the Basque Country have ever been bastions of support for the current monarchy, but if the current process causes the central government to withdraw its support, a referendum on the head of the state could yet follow:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/03/spains-scandal-hit-former-king-juan-carlos-to-move-abroad

Pawwed Rig · 03-08-2020 7:30pm

Hopefully. It beggars belief that in the modern age there are still countries with this kind of archaic backward social policy of classes. You often hear the caste system in India being criticised (and rightly so) but a country that determines that a class of people is 'better' than another just by an accident of birth is just as bad imo.

Sam Russell · 04-08-2020 2:21pm

Pawwed Rig wrote: »

Hopefully. It beggars belief that in the modern age there are still countries with this kind of archaic backward social policy of classes. You often hear the caste system in India being criticised (and rightly so) but a country that determines that a class of people is 'better' than another just by an accident of birth is just as bad imo.

Is that not the very basis of racism?

Pawwed Rig · 04-08-2020 3:02pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

Is that not the very basis of racism?

Definitely comes from the same place alright

coylemj · 04-08-2020 4:31pm

The problem with minor royalty is that they have comparatively little money yet feel that they were born to live the high life and never have to do a day's work. As prime examples, you have Prince Andrew and his daughters in the UK and in Spain, the entire royal family. The lustre of royalty means that for 'friends', these people attract dubious hangers-on who's only qualifications are that they have loads of money.

A lot of them are people of questionable reputation and background who are simply looking to bolster their public image by literally brushing shoulders with royalty. It's pretty similar to money laundering but with these people, it's reputation laundering.

Look no further than Andy's mate Jeffrey Epstein (no regrets) and (ex) King Juan Carlos' friends - people who's idea of a jolly weekend is to go to Botswana to shoot elephants for fun.

View · 04-08-2020 8:25pm

coylemj wrote: »

The problem with minor royalty is that they have comparatively little money yet feel that they were born to live the high life and never have to do a day's work. As prime examples, you have Prince Andrew and his daughters in the UK and in Spain, the entire royal family. The lustre of royalty means that for 'friends', these people attract dubious hangers-on who's only qualifications are that they have loads of money.

A lot of them are people of questionable reputation and background who are simply looking to bolster their public image by literally brushing shoulders with royalty. It's pretty similar to money laundering but with these people, it's reputation laundering.

Look no further than Andy's mate Jeffrey Epstein (no regrets) and (ex) King Juan Carlos' friends - people who's idea of a jolly weekend is to go to Botswana to shoot elephants for fun.

A King of Spain isn’t “minor royalty”. And nor are their immediate family.

Pawwed Rig · 04-08-2020 9:48pm

View wrote: »

A King of Spain isn’t “minor royalty”. And nor are their immediate family.

Depends on definition really. If you consider Julius Caeser major then king Juan Carlos or whatever his son is called would be pretty minor.

chrisd2019 · 04-08-2020 9:53pm

View wrote: »

A King of Spain isn’t “minor royalty”. And nor are their immediate family.

He is no royalty, just the son of general hand picked by a dictator as a token head of state.

Pawwed Rig · 04-08-2020 9:59pm

chrisd2019 wrote: »

He is no royalty, just the son of general hand picked by a dictator as a token head of state.

What makes someone royal other than a person handpicked at some stage on the past who gets given or takes a title??

Zaph · 04-08-2020 10:07pm

chrisd2019 wrote: »

He is no royalty, just the son of general hand picked by a dictator as a token head of state.

He's the grandson of Alfonso XIII, the last king of Spain before Franco took over, so he's not just some randomer.

Itssoeasy · 04-08-2020 10:29pm

chrisd2019 wrote: »

He is no royalty, just the son of general hand picked by a dictator as a token head of state.

The former king is the grandson of the last Spanish king before it was dissolved so he wasn't hand picked at random.

loyatemu · 04-08-2020 10:58pm

Pawwed Rig wrote: »

What makes someone royal other than a person handpicked at some stage on the past who gets given or takes a title??

The Lady of the Lake, her arm clad in the purest shimmering samite, held aloft Excalibur from the bosom of the water, signifying by divine providence that I, Arthur, was to carry Excalibur. That is why I am your king!

Alternatively, kill the previous incumbent.

4068ac1elhodqr · 04-08-2020 11:06pm

This lad fled to S.America with likely milions of funny money (inc Swiss accounts), and during ongoing corruption investigations.
Seems the Elite make their own rules, ah well.

Manach · 04-08-2020 11:20pm

One hope not. Given the schismatic forces that were unleased all through the 19th century and leading to the 1930s civil war, a monarchy at least provdes stability. Overturning centuries of traditional rule in the name of political theory has not previous worked out so well and only recommended to watch from a distance.

paul71 · 05-08-2020 1:53am

chrisd2019 wrote: »

He is no royalty, just the son of general hand picked by a dictator as a token head of state.

He is house of Bourbon. Probably the oldest existing Royal house remaining in Europe. 2 branches of The Bourbons were Kings of Spain and France before the French revolution.

Peregrinus · 05-08-2020 3:11am

Myself, I come from a long line of republican soldiers. So, yeah, it's entirely the business of the people of Spain, but I won't be urging them to cling to monarchy.

But what the Spanish monarchy has going for it is the role that it - and, indeed, Juan Carlos personally - played in ensuring the transition to democracy after Franco's death, and in defending democracy against challenges from the right. I'm old enough to remember this as it unfolded, and Juan Carlos was quite the darling of the liberals then. And, if I'm honest, there was some justification for this.

But I've got the sense over the last decade or so that the monarchy has pretty much burned through the credit they earned at that time. Plus, for most people in Spain that's history; they don't remember it. Even though they're aware of it, it has much less traction with them that it might with the declining minority of crumblies of my age.

So, yeah. The present guy has to turn things around pretty dramatically and set a new tone, and get his family on board with the project. A monarchy associated with entitlement, corruption, sleaze and seediness has nothing to offer Spain, and won't survive for long.

HalloweenJack · 05-08-2020 11:04am

Hopefully so.

Considering the financial trouble Spain has had, I can't understand why they pay for a royal family who do nothing and has several members involved in corruption scandals. They represent something from the past and I'd wager that the majority of their support comes from the elderly.

Itssoeasy · 05-08-2020 11:32pm

I know this is about Spanish royalty but from just reading a bit about the other royal families of Europe they do seem not as liked as the others. The Scandinavian royal families of Norway, Sweden and especially Denmark seem well liked by those countries populations and the Dutch one seem liked and the Belgian one kind of. The Spanish not so much as the current Spanish king I seem to recall him weighting in a bit heavy for a constitutional monarch in regards to the Catalonia independence issue a couple of years ago.

An Ciarraioch · 06-08-2020 12:36pm

Itssoeasy wrote: »

I know this is about Spanish royalty but from just reading a bit about the other royal families of Europe they do seem not as liked as the others. The Scandinavian royal families of Norway, Sweden and especially Denmark seem well liked by those countries populations and the Dutch one seem liked and the Belgian one kind of. The Spanish not so much as the current Spanish king I seem to recall him weighting in a bit heavy for a constitutional monarch in regards to the Catalonia independence issue a couple of years ago.

Yes, the Bourbons do tend to take more direct involvement in constitutional issues, as you say Felipe was given TV air time to intervene at the height of the Catalan crisis, where by analogy Queen Elizabeth remained silent during the Scottish independence referendum. There was a recent online survey about the Spanish monarchy, and the regional differences were striking, with 80% for a republic in the Basque Country, compared to pro-royal majorities in Madrid and both Castiles:

https://electomania.es/epmonarquia2a20/

CrabRevolution · 06-08-2020 1:25pm

Manach wrote: »

One hope not. Given the schismatic forces that were unleased all through the 19th century and leading to the 1930s civil war, a monarchy at least provdes stability. Overturning centuries of traditional rule in the name of political theory has not previous worked out so well and only recommended to watch from a distance.

This sounds like something someone would come up with to defend the Confederate States of America or the Catholic Church effectively running Ireland. Republics are hardly "political theory" either. Dozens of countries have dumped monarchs in order to become republics, and few if any have ever reverted.

PopePalpatine · 06-08-2020 1:46pm

CrabRevolution wrote: »

This sounds like something someone would come up with to defend the Confederate States of America or the Catholic Church effectively running Ireland. Republics are hardly "political theory" either. Dozens of countries have dumped monarchs in order to become republics, and few if any have ever reverted.

Those damned liberal commoners, if only they accepted the will of the First and Second Estates.

Peregrinus · 07-08-2020 2:16am

Manach wrote: »

One hope not. Given the schismatic forces that were unleased all through the 19th century and leading to the 1930s civil war, a monarchy at least provdes stability. Overturning centuries of traditional rule in the name of political theory has not previous worked out so well and only recommended to watch from a distance.

I dunno. It has worked very well for us, for example.

And the thesis that "monarchies provide stability" doesn't hold up to examination well. The surviving monarchies exemplify stability precisely because they are the surviving monarchies. But all you're doing there is excluding all the monarchies that have collapsed. This is a bit like pointing at people who have survived liver cancer to prove that liver cancer is not a fatal disease. It's all the people who have died of liver cancer that tell you how fatal the disease is.

I doubt myself that monarchy either causes stability or causes instability. The causation is more likely the other way around; the surviving monarchies have survived because their countries were stable; the (much larger number of) abolished monarchies were abolished because their countries were not stable.

L1011 · 07-08-2020 8:21am

Peregrinus wrote: »

And the thesis that "monarchies provide stability" doesn't hold up to examination well. The surviving monarchies exemplify stability precisely because they are the surviving monarchies. But all you're doing there is excluding all the monarchies that have collapsed. This is a bit like pointing at people who have survived liver cancer to prove that liver cancer is not a fatal disease. It's all the people who have died of liver cancer that tell you how fatal the disease is.

Basically the same as the sort-of survival bias that people apply to consumer goods when they see the rare outliers like a 1950s fridge that's still working. "They don't build them like they used to!" is only right because they're built better now.

Hermy · 07-08-2020 9:10am

L1011 wrote: »

Basically the same as the sort-of survival bias that people apply to consumer goods when they see the rare outliers like a 1950s fridge that's still working. "They don't build them like they used to!" is only right because they're built better now.

Is it not the case though that things aren't actually built like they used to be?

We live in a throw away society where very few commodities are built to last, many things are discarded before they've broken down, and when things do break the cost of repair is often more than the cost of replacement.

And perhaps that is why monarchy seems such an anachronism to today's society where most things have such a short shelf life.

Peregrinus · 07-08-2020 9:17am

Hermy wrote: »

Is it not the case though that things aren't actually built like they used to be?

We live in a throw away society where very few commodities are built to last, many things are discarded before they've broken down, and when things do break the cost of repair is often more than the cost of replacement.

And perhaps that is why monarchy seems such an anachronism to today's society where most things have such a short shelf life.

I don't think that's the reason why monarchy appears such an anachronism in today's society.

Hermy · 07-08-2020 9:21am

Peregrinus wrote: »

I don't think that's the reason why monarch appears such an anachronism in today's society.

I was just trying to bring my point back on topic.:)

And while the longevity might be somewhat anachronistic I suppose that's probably also part of it's appeal.

L1011 · 07-08-2020 9:26am

Hermy wrote: »

Is it not the case though that things aren't actually built like they used to be?

We live in a throw away society where very few commodities are built to last, many things are discarded before they've broken down, and when things do break the cost of repair is often more than the cost of replacement.

And perhaps that is why monarchy seems such an anachronism to today's society where most things have such a short shelf life.

Nope, build quality now is vastly, vastly higher than the past. Mechanisation, automation, quality control etc have hugely improved reliability.

When was the last time you had to call for an appliance repair? Its not that things have become unrepairable/uneconomic to repair; its that things just don't need repair anymore.

The TV at home was off to the repair shop at least once a year. The TV I bought when I moved out in 2011 is still in daily use (back in my parents house - I've upgraded it size-wise a few times since) with zero failures.

My dishwasher is 20 years old and its needed one replacement hose.

20 years ago, a 20 year old car was a rusted wreck. Not the case now.

Peregrinus · 07-08-2020 9:41am

L1011 wrote: »

Nope, build quality now is vastly, vastly higher than the past. Mechanisation, automation, quality control etc have hugely improved reliability.

When was the last time you had to call for an appliance repair? Its not that things have become unrepairable/uneconomic to repair; its that things just don't need repair anymore.

The TV at home was off to the repair shop at least once a year. The TV I bought when I moved out in 2011 is still in daily use (back in my parents house - I've upgraded it size-wise a few times since) with zero failures.

My dishwasher is 20 years old and its needed one replacement hose.

20 years ago, a 20 year old car was a rusted wreck. Not the case now.

This, plus things are much cheaper than they used to be.

A modern TV, for example, is vastly more reliable than one you would have bought 50 years ago.

But it's also vastly cheaper, in real terms. If it does break down, the reason why it gets junked is not so much because repairs are expensive as because a replacement is cheap.

Markcheese · 07-08-2020 9:41am

I think there can be an advantage to monarchy,( well a constitutional monarchy,with a figurehead monarch ) ,
It's not having to select a new figurehead during turbulent times , especially in a polarised political environment ..
In Ireland ,we tend to lurch from centre left to centre right politics so no major party has (so far ) been too distant politically from the president , who's supposed to be apolitical anyway and "above"party politics ... I can't imagine it being like that in Spain .

paul71 · 07-08-2020 9:46am

CrabRevolution wrote: »

This sounds like something someone would come up with to defend the Confederate States of America or the Catholic Church effectively running Ireland. Republics are hardly "political theory" either. Dozens of countries have dumped monarchs in order to become republics, and few if any have ever reverted.

Funnily enough one that did was The United Kingdom.

paul71 · 07-08-2020 9:48am

paul71 wrote: »

Funnily enough one that did was The United Kingdom.

Correction on myself, it was prior to The Act of Union so was not The United Kingdon at that time.

Sam Russell · 07-08-2020 9:51am

Markcheese wrote: »

I think there can be an advantage to monarchy,( well a constitutional monarchy,with a figurehead monarch ) ,
It's not having to select a new figurehead during turbulent times , especially in a polarised political environment ..
In Ireland ,we tend to lurch from centre left to centre right politics so no major party has (so far ) been too distant politically from the president , who's supposed to be apolitical anyway and "above"party politics ... I can't imagine it being like that in Spain .

That is certainly a problem in France where the President is political - mainly associated with foreign affairs. Also, their politics does lurch from left to right and back again.

Our President is supposed to be, and to date has been, above politics. It is surprising that the election of President is seen as a political party contest, but the winner is non party. Weird.

Monarchy is outmoded. It is impossible for us to contemplate reinstating any kind of Ard Ri here. Surely any modern democracy cannot countenance such an affront to equality and equal opportunity where one citizen is elevated to be far above all others - just on an accident of birth.

All monarchies should be abolished - worldwide.

Peregrinus · 07-08-2020 9:58am

Markcheese wrote: »

I think there can be an advantage to monarchy,( well a constitutional monarchy,with a figurehead monarch ) ,
It's not having to select a new figurehead during turbulent times , especially in a polarised political environment ..
In Ireland ,we tend to lurch from centre left to centre right politics so no major party has (so far ) been too distant politically from the president , who's supposed to be apolitical anyway and "above"party politics ... I can't imagine it being like that in Spain .

It's pretty much exactly like that in Spain. They alternate between centre-left and centre-right governments, with changes coming at an average frequency of maybe 7 or 8 years. Their centre-left governments tend to be a bit further left than ours; that's about the only difference. (That, and the fact that the Spanish king is a somewhat more politically engaged figure than the Irish president, though he takes care to avoid being partisan.)

I think the problem they are having in Spain right now - and this would be a systemic risk in any monarchy - is that your figurehead head of state always comes from a background and milieu of considerable wealth, status and influence, and can easily develop a sense of entitlement which can lead to, um, errors of judgment and lapses in personal behaviour. And this risk is multiplied by the fact that your figurehead comes with an extended family who share the same characteristic and present the same risk. Not looking at anyone in particular, Andrew.

View · 08-08-2020 10:28pm

Markcheese wrote: »

I think there can be an advantage to monarchy,( well a constitutional monarchy,with a figurehead monarch ) ,
It's not having to select a new figurehead during turbulent times , especially in a polarised political environment ..
In Ireland ,we tend to lurch from centre left to centre right politics so no major party has (so far ) been too distant politically from the president , who's supposed to be apolitical anyway and "above"party politics ... I can't imagine it being like that in Spain .

BIB - given that we have never even remotely come close to returning a centre-left plurality, never mind majority, to the Dail, the above is a bizarre statement. Hell, it is even a stretch to claim we have ever (properly) “lurched to the centre”.

Smee_Again · 08-08-2020 10:39pm

View wrote: »

BIB - given that we have never even remotely come close to returning a centre-left plurality, never mind majority, to the Dail, the above is a bizarre statement. Hell, it is even a stretch to claim we have ever (properly) “lurched to the centre”.

Sure Bertie was a socialist.

View · 09-08-2020 12:02am

Smee_Again wrote: »

Sure Bertie was a socialist.

Of course he was. :-)

Pawwed Rig · 09-08-2020 10:03am

View wrote: »

BIB - given that we have never even remotely come close to returning a centre-left plurality, never mind majority, to the Dail, the above is a bizarre statement. Hell, it is even a stretch to claim we have ever (properly) “lurched to the centre”.

I would say that is a matter of opinion. Some would consider all of our political parties left or centre left to some degree. We certainly have no hard right parties. The Dail on average would be left of centre

YellowBucket · 09-08-2020 10:29am

I think it’s possible but Spain is complicated in terms of their relationship with royalty. Most of them don’t care that much but you’ve a hardcore off royalists who would get their nose out of joint over this.

Also becoming a republic might actually be a very positive move in terms of making the Basques and Catalans feel less uncomfortable, but that’s not necessarily going to sell the idea in Madrid or amongst the PP.

I spent a year in the north of Spain and in places like Navarra there’s stark contrast between the left and socially progressive types and the conservatives. You encounter a hardcore of religious conservatives, especially in Pamplona. They’ve like Iona Institute crossed with the right wing of the Tory Party and we’re often members of Opus Dei.

There wasn’t much love lost between them and the Basques, who by and large were far more secular and socially progressive.

In some ways it was a bit like the divide between Sinn Fein and One Nation Tories or even the DUP.

So I don’t know if you could ever get a modern Spanish republic over the line. It’s a lot more complex than it looks from the outside.

There’s also an extreme reluctance to discuss anything about the dictatorship era and there’s a tendency to just want to keep a lid on anything too dramatic. Kinda let sleeping dogs lie approach to it.

YellowBucket · 09-08-2020 10:42am

Markcheese wrote: »

I think there can be an advantage to monarchy,( well a constitutional monarchy,with a figurehead monarch ) ,
It's not having to select a new figurehead during turbulent times , especially in a polarised political environment ..
In Ireland ,we tend to lurch from centre left to centre right politics so no major party has (so far ) been too distant politically from the president , who's supposed to be apolitical anyway and "above"party politics ... I can't imagine it being like that in Spain .

We don’t lurch from left to right in Ireland. It’s actually probably the most centrist country in Western Europe. The U.K., a constitutional monarchy, lurches from Tory to Labour and has had significant periods where the those lurches have been huge. Take a look at the 1970s when Labour was very left and the response was Margaret Thatcher!

Or more recently Corbynist labour vs May or Johnson!

Belgium has very far right and left politics and a massive ethnic divide. It’s a constitutional monarchy.

The main issue you’ll see is that countries with functioning proportional representation systems tend to be more consensus building in politics.

Spain itself is divided between left and right FAR more dramatically than Ireland and those divides have been getting deeper in recent years with less and less common ground between the PP and socialists, especially after the economic crash and you’ve also seen the rise of Podemos and Vox.

France, the U.K., the USA etc are first past the post (modified a bit by two rounds in France) but the result is left to right swings or very polarised arguments between parties trying to take all the power in a majoritarian system.

Smee_Again · 09-08-2020 5:47pm

View wrote: »

Of course he was. :-)

Bertie wouldn’t lie.

An Ciarraioch · 10-08-2020 3:28pm

YellowBucket wrote: »

I think it’s possible but Spain is complicated in terms of their relationship with royalty. Most of them don’t care that much but you’ve a hardcore off royalists who would get their nose out of joint over this.

Also becoming a republic might actually be a very positive move in terms of making the Basques and Catalans feel less uncomfortable, but that’s not necessarily going to sell the idea in Madrid or amongst the PP.

I spent a year in the north of Spain and in places like Navarra there’s stark contrast between the left and socially progressive types and the conservatives. You encounter a hardcore of religious conservatives, especially in Pamplona. They’ve like Iona Institute crossed with the right wing of the Tory Party and we’re often members of Opus Dei.

There wasn’t much love lost between them and the Basques, who by and large were far more secular and socially progressive.

In some ways it was a bit like the divide between Sinn Fein and One Nation Tories or even the DUP.

So I don’t know if you could ever get a modern Spanish republic over the line. It’s a lot more complex than it looks from the outside.

There’s also an extreme reluctance to discuss anything about the dictatorship era and there’s a tendency to just want to keep a lid on anything too dramatic. Kinda let sleeping dogs lie approach to it.

Ironically, the Navarrese are actually Basque themselves (both the PNV and Bildu campaign in both regions), but their more conservative and more unionist tendency dates all the way back to the Carlist wars of the 19th century between rival branches of the Bourbons.

chrisd2019 · 10-08-2020 10:27pm

View wrote: »

Of course he was. :-)

And one without a bank account while in charge of the finances in a banana republic !

View · 14-08-2020 2:41pm

Pawwed Rig wrote: »

I would say that is a matter of opinion. Some would consider all of our political parties left or centre left to some degree. We certainly have no hard right parties. The Dail on average would be left of centre

No it really isn’t just “a matter of opinion”. All of our major parties (ie non-one man and his dog parties) have track records on voting at both domestic and EU level.

Particularly in the latter case, it is clear which (EU level) political parties they belong to and, unsurprisingly, our parties’/MEPs’ voting records corresponds to their fellow parties’/MEPs’ from around the EU. There is certainly no evidence that our MEPs are regarded as being in the wrong political parties by their fellow (party) MEPs from the rest of the EU.

As such it is wrong to claim that “the Dail on average is left of centre”, unless that is your personal definition of the political “centre” is that it is or should be somewhere to the right of Genghis Khan.

An Ciarraioch · 14-08-2020 4:14pm

Indeed, but FF have generally migrated around the centrist/right European groupings, rather than being liberals per se - largely joining up with Gaullists for the first 25 years, and even in a Eurosceptic group for the following ten, before being admitted to the Liberals:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fianna_Fáil#In_European_institutions

Could Spain become a republic again?

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