US Presidential Election 2020

Rjd2 · 12-07-2020 8:36am

eagle eye wrote: »

In 2016 Trump appealed to a class of people who don't often vote. The wall was a big part of that.
He had the Republicans fully behind him.
This time around he will struggle to get those wall voters to the poll.
It's clear to that there's a spilt in the Republican party as regards supporting him.
Biden is not hated. There's concerns for many over his ability to do the job due to his age but Trump's had four years and has only managed to alienate more people. He's the worst President in the history of the United States of America in the eyes of many people.
I can't see any way he can get enough votes to even make it close.

The major problem for him he has no message especially economic this time round and as Clinton said its all about the economy.

Last time round he clearly had a message about bringing back jobs to the rust belt which clearly resonated,,,this time round, Biden is running on an economic patriotism type vibe.

https://twitter.com/JStein_WaPo/status/1281239318950969344

Townton · 12-07-2020 9:29am

eagle eye wrote: »

In 2016 Trump appealed to a class of people who don't often vote. The wall was a big part of that.
He had the Republicans fully behind him.
This time around he will struggle to get those wall voters to the poll.
It's clear to that there's a spilt in the Republican party as regards supporting him.
Biden is not hated. There's concerns for many over his ability to do the job due to his age but Trump's had four years and has only managed to alienate more people. He's the worst President in the history of the United States of America in the eyes of many people.
I can't see any way he can get enough votes to even make it close.

Thing is a lot of people don't see him as the worst president ever (which itself as a statement is factually untrue dive into some presidential history you will change your mind pretty quick) as many even across the divide agreed he was doing very well in terms of the economy and even in many aspects (with notable expectations) in terms of forigen policy particularly in relation to China. His judicial appointments have also been pretty solid. All the moaning about republican judges being in his pocket proved as predicted to be false. Which is unsurprising given they are nearly all small government constitutionalists who are naturally weary of administrative agencies and executive power, as trump has since learned.

What nearly all agree with and is clear from even the less sensationalist staffers that have written books and given interviews etc. Is that he doesn't have the right temperament or personality and dispite his years in business he has proved useless when it comes to the basic management and running of an organisation. He is incapable of bridging the devide that said there is little evidence that there is any democrat who can. Finally as one republican friend said to me Biden offers a potential return to boring normality which is what he and alot of voters want at this stage. He likes alot of what Trump did he just can't stand the personality and wants a break from the hysteria (much of it induced by the media) , which I think we will find a lot of voters on both sides agree on.

Water John · 12-07-2020 1:17pm

A lot of independents and soft GOP will vote for Biden, on the basis of his normality but Biden in office may turn out to be more radical than they think, judging by recent hints. Biden himself will continue down the centre of the road but many of the key policy figures, VP and Cabinet may be more radical and he being a one term president will facilitate transition.
If it's managed correctly the GOP will find themselves unelectable.

Thargor · 12-07-2020 1:49pm

Kanye is having a bipolar episode at the minute, one of his worst, this isn't some strategy to help Trump or run himself, he's literally raving, expect to see him taking a long holiday in a clinic soon.

Townton · 12-07-2020 3:17pm

Water John wrote: »

A lot of independents and soft GOP will vote for Biden, on the basis of his normality but Biden in office may turn out to be more radical than they think, judging by recent hints. Biden himself will continue down the centre of the road but many of the key policy figures, VP and Cabinet may be more radical and he being a one term president will facilitate transition.
If it's managed correctly the GOP will find themselves unelectable.

And in two years there are house and senate elections. Obama lost the house after two years the Democrats (and indeed incumbents in general) will find it hard to hold all going well, if they entertain the more radical elements good by House and senate until 2024 or 2028 and maybe even the WH in 2024 if the GOP get their act together.

Sand · 12-07-2020 4:15pm

Townton wrote: »

And in two years there are house and senate elections. Obama lost the house after two years the Democrats (and indeed incumbents in general) will find it hard to hold all going well, if they entertain the more radical elements good by House and senate until 2024 or 2028 and maybe even the WH in 2024 if the GOP get their act together.

Texas is on track to swing majority Hispanic in 2022. Once that happens, there will never be a Republican presidency again.

Muahahaha · 12-07-2020 4:31pm

Is there any chance of Texas falling to Democrats this November? Beto oRourke came within a whisker of getting elected there not too long ago.

KiKi III · 12-07-2020 5:21pm

Sand wrote: »

Texas is on track to swing majority Hispanic in 2022. Once that happens, there will never be a Republican presidency again.

I'm guessing once that happens, Republicans willl suddenly develop an interest in reforming the electoral college system.

Sand · 12-07-2020 7:17pm

KiKi III wrote: »

I'm guessing once that happens, Republicans willl suddenly develop an interest in reforming the electoral college system.

Whats the point? Republican and Democrat policies are largely indistinguishable on the points that matter to their investors.

Rjd2 · 12-07-2020 9:02pm

Sand wrote: »

Texas is on track to swing majority Hispanic in 2022. Once that happens, there will never be a Republican presidency again.

I think that's the one group Biden has somewhat struggled with this time round.

Republicans really should not write of that demo , their is definitely voters to be won their, although how Trump is handling the virus last few weeks like with all demos not helping.

https://nypost.com/2020/05/30/why-so-many-latino-voters-are-flocking-to-trumps-gop/

Water John · 12-07-2020 9:17pm

If you read this profile of Nikki Haley, you can see the clear diff between DNC and GOP. And the choice will be between some one like her or Tucker Carlson within the GOP.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jul/10/nikki-haley-post-trump-republican-party

Nody · 12-07-2020 9:20pm

Sand wrote: »

Texas is on track to swing majority Hispanic in 2022. Once that happens, there will never be a Republican presidency again.

They will go more heavy on the religious card instead to get Hispanic voters; more "joe vs. wade changes" etc. and play up the threat to their religion and beliefs basically. Add in some vague policies about climbing up towards middle class and beyond as part of "the American dream" to give them hope.

Rjd2 · 12-07-2020 9:43pm

Water John wrote: »

If you read this profile of Nikki Haley, you can see the clear diff between DNC and GOP. And the choice will be between some one like her or Tucker Carlson within the GOP.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jul/10/nikki-haley-post-trump-republican-party

Agreed.

2024 will be fascinating, the bookies will have her favourite but her zombie Reganism and very aggressive foreign policies are not in line with what the GOP base wants at the moment. Tucker has been very dismissive of her, she has to find a way to get that element aboard , that's a big ask.

Dan Crenshaw is another who will run and probably fail, a slave to the "free market is perfect" mantra and a hawk overseas .

rossie1977 · 12-07-2020 9:48pm

Sand wrote: »

Texas is on track to swing majority Hispanic in 2022. Once that happens, there will never be a Republican presidency again.

No chance that soon. Outside the big cities and southwest Texas its still a Republican stat

Sand wrote: »

Whats the point? Republican and Democrat policies are largely indistinguishable on the points that matter to their investors.

Couldn't be further from the truth. Check out the voting records between the parties..

https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/2kaubu/just_a_reminder_of_what_the_senate_was_doing_the/

Water John · 12-07-2020 10:10pm

Biden is only one point behind Trump in Texas. We're into the margin of error territory.

Overheal · 12-07-2020 10:17pm

Water John wrote: »

Biden is only one point behind Trump in Texas. We're into the margin of error territory.

Another Texas poll has him up by 5 points against Trump. Texas is purple.

Townton · 12-07-2020 10:56pm

Muahahaha wrote: »

Is there any chance of Texas falling to Democrats this November? Beto oRourke came within a whisker of getting elected there not too long ago.

They have been saying that for a couple of cycles at this stage. Reality is no, it might go Biden on a once off or because trump is the candidate, but Texes are old school republicans. Small government enthusiasts low taxes etc. Texes has done phenomenally well in the last two decades from its current approach. I have seen it with my own eyes it is unbelievable. Just measure it by the amount of people moving from California to Texas. From the flag ship democrat state to the flagship Republican. All that said my experience is that reasonable middle of the road republicans are far more likely to throw a republican out and vote democrat then the other way around. So given the current line up ya there is a good chance IMO in a once off switch.

To the Latino argument, just because they are Latino does not make them a solid Democrat voters. Especially when you push radical elements of the Democrats up against immigrants from the likes Venuzuela, Cuba or Nicaragua. Those newer immigrants tend not to be big fans of the socialist wing /element givin they blame the idea for driving them from their homes in the first place. But there are a lot of factors to the Latino voting block just don't make the mistake of thinking its a homogeneous voting block and never has been.

Townton · 12-07-2020 10:57pm

Overheal wrote: »

Another Texas poll has him up by 5 points against Trump. Texas is purple.

It's because the candidate is Trump trust me its not an inherently purple state. They just are like most other people they are not big fans of Trump.

Townton · 12-07-2020 11:01pm

Nody wrote: »

Add in some vague policies about climbing up towards middle class and beyond as part of "the American dream" to give them hope.

If they stay to long in Texas the republicans might actually convince them on that. Pre covid Texas was the place to be work and business wise. And is totally run by the GOP albeit level headed ones. If there is an argument for the republican way of doing things Texas is it. They could actually win the voters over.

13-07-2020 2:27am

Ironically that only works where you have immigration causing plenty of growth.

Brian? · 13-07-2020 9:06am

Sand wrote: »

Texas is on track to swing majority Hispanic in 2022. Once that happens, there will never be a Republican presidency again.

Texas will be a swing state in 2024, it may become solid Dem later. But at the same time, some of the rust belt states are becoming solid GOP.

This plus some minor policy shifts will ensure the status quo.

rossie1977 · 13-07-2020 9:42am

Townton wrote: »

If they stay to long in Texas the republicans might actually convince them on that. Pre covid Texas was the place to be work and business wise. And is totally run by the GOP albeit level headed ones. If there is an argument for the republican way of doing things Texas is it. They could actually win the voters over.

Rick Perry level headed..

And if anyone says the reason Texas did well was because of Republican politics they are lying. The reason Texas saw huge growth over last 50 years is because of a number of non political factors:

1. Huge amount of land available thats cheap
2. Perfect location which allows international trade and immigration
3. Massive amount of natural resources

Quin_Dub · 13-07-2020 1:06pm

rossie1977 wrote: »

Rick Perry level headed..

And if anyone says the reason Texas did well was because of Republican politics they are lying. The reason Texas saw huge growth over last 50 years is because of a number of non political factors:

1. Huge amount of land available thats cheap
2. Perfect location which allows international trade and immigration
3. Massive amount of natural resources

I'd agree - Level headed is not something I label the Texas GOP with - See their attempts to sue the Mayor of Houston after he cancelled their convention last week.

Texas probably won't turn blue this time around , but Trump is making it WAY closer than it should be. In normal times Texas is probably 2 to 3 election cycles away from being a legitimate target for Democrats in a Presidential election.

They can and will make significant inroads at the state level though and probably at the House level as well.

Texas has several of the fastest growing urban/suburban areas in the whole of the US - Places like Austin and San Antonio and the bottom line is that Urban areas tend to lean Democrat - In every State.

Had O'Rourke not gotten a bit too big for his boots , he could have been putting massive pressure on Cornyn for a Senate seat this election .

sid waddell · 13-07-2020 1:30pm

Quin_Dub wrote: »

I'd agree - Level headed is not something I label the Texas GOP with - See their attempts to sue the Mayor of Houston after he cancelled their convention last week.

Texas probably won't turn blue this time around , but Trump is making it WAY closer than it should be. In normal times Texas is probably 2 to 3 election cycles away from being a legitimate target for Democrats in a Presidential election.

They can and will make significant inroads at the state level though and probably at the House level as well.

Texas has several of the fastest growing urban/suburban areas in the whole of the US - Places like Austin and San Antonio and the bottom line is that Urban areas tend to lean Democrat - In every State.

Had O'Rourke not gotten a bit too big for his boots , he could have been putting massive pressure on Cornyn for a Senate seat this election .

I don't think it's a good idea for somebody to go for a Senate seat two years after losing.

Martha McSally is faring very badly doing just that in Arizona.

I'm surprised Julian Castro didn't go for that Texas seat, he would have been a very strong candidate.

13-07-2020 2:17pm

Brian? wrote: »

Texas will be a swing state in 2024, it may become solid Dem later. But at the same time, some of the rust belt states are becoming solid GOP.

This plus some minor policy shifts will ensure the status quo.

I think Texas is likely a bit further off that that.

Which Rust Belt states do you see becoming solid GOP? Indiana has been Red for 50+ years. For most of the rest Trump eked out wins last time and is underwater now.

Quin_Dub · 13-07-2020 2:25pm

sid waddell wrote: »

I don't think it's a good idea for somebody to go for a Senate seat two years after losing.

Martha McSally is faring very badly doing just that in Arizona.

I'm surprised Julian Castro didn't go for that Texas seat, he would have been a very strong candidate.

McSally is doing badly because she's very unpopular in her state and always has been. She lost an Election in a Ragingly solid Red State and was then parachuted into the seat by the Governor.

This time around she has Quad threat

She's never been popular to begin with
People are extra ticked off that she got parachuted in after losing (The "we told you we didn't want her" effect)
The "Trump (un)Popularity Anchor"
Her opponent is a really popular guy and husband of a really popular former Rep

Carfacemandog · 13-07-2020 2:47pm

California and Texas are often seen as kind of being the yin to the others yang - the two largest EC states by a fair margin, and a complete lock for the Dems and GOP respectively that campaigning there etc is never really needed much (unless using it as a base for some national event like a major speech/rally/convention/etc). If either party ever lost either state, they could throw in the towel there and then and forget about winning the Presidency until they got said state back, or until a huge change in politics in most occurred (something we haven't seen since the 1970s).

The Democrats are currently 1/300 to win California, with Biden currently leading there on 538's aggregator by 29.7%
The Republicans are currently 2/5 to win Texas, with Biden now actually holding a 0.1% lead on 538's aggregator.
That difference is staggering.

I do still think Trump will win there, but the funding, time and effort they will need to put in is going to cost them massively in several other states, which is made even worse when you look at him losing almost every single typically 'blue' or 'purple' state he won in 2016, along with some more traditionally red ones that he either won (or lost closely) in 2016. There is absolutely no question that Texas is absolutely 'in play' right now, something which shouldn't even be worth discussing as a possibility. I had seen Biden closing the gap but only noticed when checking for this post that he had taken the lead there.

Given that younger voters skew left, that the current younger voters in the US are definitely a generational movement at this point, are already the biggest one since the baby boomers (who are now dying off), and very importantly that Texas is the third youngest state in the nation after Alaska and Utah (and DC if we're counting it), this doesn't bode well - especially with all the Californians moving there lately.

I read a few years ago that the best way for progressive minded people in the US to get what they want in the current system was to flood 'red' states which are often very over represented in terms of EC seats, Senate positions, etc. It looks like that is also exactly what is happening, with massive net emigration numbers not only to Texas (who have 29 EC seats), but also Arizona (11 seats), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Nebraska (5), Idaho (4) and apparently rural Washington State (12)/Oregon (17 - both are blue states, but very 'red' once you leave the cities. It has already occurred in Virginia (13 who voted for Hillary and Obama twice, but had been straight GOP from 1964-2008 before that), and looks like Arizona has gone or is right on the brink of going the same way too.

This is bad, bad news for Republicans in the medium-to-long term, and in the short too. Leaving out Washington, Oregon and Virginia, that is a total of 61 seats (74 with VA & NV) that have traditionally been easy wins for the GOP. In the 10 elections since 1980, across these 6 states there have been a total of 59 GOP wins vs 1 single Democrat one (Arizona - Clinton, 1996), and so losing them would be a swing of 122 seats (or 148 with VA) in a race to 270. And it seems the only way to (democratically) avoid this is for the GOP to move their platform to better suit 'Californian types' and younger voters - two groups they have more or less labelled 'the enemy' over the last 10+ years in an effort to rally their base. And if they go chasing that younger and more 'Californian' type of demographic, then what happens with their current base?

538.com aggregates polls from around the country, and while it's very early days in terms of election polling so could easily change, this is what they currently look like for those states:
Arizona - Biden up 2.4pts
South Dakota - still awaiting polls
South Carolina - Trump up 7.2pts
Nebraska - Biden up by 7pts
Idaho - still awaiting polls
Texas - Biden up 0.1pts
Virginia - Biden up by 11.2pts

Obviously polls this early do not tell the whole picture, but of those 74 seats, right now Biden would pick up 58, Trump 9, with 7 from SD/ID being undecided; remove VA and it's still 45-9 in Biden's favour. Traditionally, this should be a locked in 61 seats for the GOP, or 74 with VA included, and indeed in 2016 Trump did win all of these states bar VA and pick up said 61 votes. This is a huge problem for them this year, and it's only going to get worse and worse with time. All of those states by VA (middle of the pack) and SC (15th oldest) are in the 15th youngest states in the US.

Republican election officials would of course be well aware of this too, and the truth is that there is no way for them to keep relevant over the coming years without finding ways to stop people from voting and undermining democracy. The racist Southern Strategy reaped rewards for decades for them, but following further and further down the rabbit hole may have led them to a dead end at this point. And if their acts in congress are anything to go by, it appears that having foreign nations undermine their elections for which the GOP have massively cut protections and defenses of, is the option they have gone for.

Townton · 13-07-2020 2:49pm

rossie1977 wrote: »

Rick Perry level headed..

And if anyone says the reason Texas did well was because of Republican politics they are lying. The reason Texas saw huge growth over last 50 years is because of a number of non political factors:

1. Huge amount of land available thats cheap
2. Perfect location which allows international trade and immigration
3. Massive amount of natural resources

And most importantly if you ask those opening and moving business there it is the ease of doing business the low and in some areas non existing taxes. I have worked and been involved with business interests there if you think the business environment that has been created there has nothing to do with their massive growth then you need to think again.

What's also worth taking note of is the GOP are broadly even among dem voters I knew credited with this in Texas. Hence the simple flip that many will think is coming might not actually happen. But as I also said they are more will there then some think to kick out personalities they don't like so a once off to Biden is very possible I just don't see it being permanent.

Quin_Dub · 13-07-2020 3:03pm

There's no doubt that this election is pivotal for the medium term fortunes of the GOP.

If the Democrats control the WH, the Senate and the House one of their priorities in that 1st 2 year window will be to progress the Statehood claims of both DC and Puerto Rico.

If they achieve that , they will have given themselves a pretty much guaranteed 4 extra Senate seats and probably ~6 House seats at least , along with probably 5 or 6 EC votes from Puerto Rico.

That would represent a huge swing and make regaining the Senate in particular extremely difficult for the GOP over the next several election cycles.

Igotadose · 13-07-2020 3:26pm

Quin_Dub wrote: »

There's no doubt that this election is pivotal for the medium term fortunes of the GOP.

If the Democrats control the WH, the Senate and the House one of their priorities in that 1st 2 year window will be to progress the Statehood claims of both DC and Puerto Rico.

#1 Priority will be the replacement for Ruth Bader Ginsberg. Clarence Thomas may not be around all that much longer either, per the rumor mill (though, I think he'd let Trump choose his replacement should it come to that. My guess is he retires after the election if the #IMPOTUS loses.)

If they achieve that , they will have given themselves a pretty much guaranteed 4 extra Senate seats and probably ~6 House seats at least , along with probably 5 or 6 EC votes from Puerto Rico.

That would represent a huge swing and make regaining the Senate in particular extremely difficult for the GOP over the next several election cycles.

Another guess it's probably not going to be a fast process, the state in question needs its own constitution accepted by its residents, then the Congress needs to accept it. Plus I can imagine local and national level legal wheeling and dealing by the GOP and Democratic party to ensure they get what's wanted out of the state.

US Presidential Election 2020

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