Sweden avoiding lockdown

YFlyer · 10-07-2020 10:54PM

I haven't been on this page in over a month. Do I need to grind the numbers on Worldometer to gain the current understanding?

tobefrank321 · 10-07-2020 10:57PM

charlie14 wrote: »

Did you read any of the posts I was replying to
Apparently for Covid-19 there is no need for a vaccine. Our own immune system will simply restore us to health all on its own.

It doesn't matter how antibodies are developed. Vaccine or exposure to the illness with antibodies gives immunity.
So far the only way people have become immune is through exposure and recovery.
We're still waiting the mytical second reinfection of recovered patients.

tobefrank321 · 10-07-2020 11:01PM

charlie14 wrote: »

I never thought their strategy was ever anything other than herd immunity, and after Annika Linde`s statement I don`t believe there
is any doubt that it was anything else.

Portugal have 15.8 deaths per hundred thousand. Sweden have 53.5.
It is more likely Sweden reaching Italy`s 57.7 than Portugal reaching Sweden`s numbers.

It is difficult to know what Sweden`s daily deaths are with holidays affecting reporting, but I doubt they are less than Portugal`s daily average over the last two weeks of less than 7.

I don`t know where this suspected immunity is coming from in Sweden. Their antibody test are not showing it, and what they are showing is no better than practically anywhere else.

Its showing no better than anywhere else because they are not pursuing herd immunity and haven't been for at least 3 months.

They have many of the same restrictions as elsewhere, eg ban on large gatherings.

charlie14 · 10-07-2020 11:02PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

It doesn't matter how antibodies are developed. Vaccine or exposure to the illness with antibodies gives immunity.
So far the only way people have become immune is through exposure and recovery.
We're still waiting the mytical second reinfection of recovered patients.

Well exposure isn`t doing much for the percentages developing antibodies.

charlie14 · 10-07-2020 11:09PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Its showing no better than anywhere else because they are not pursuing herd immunity and haven't been for at least 3 months.

They are not pursuing herd immunity because the test results showed how far out their modelling figures were and how irresponsible their strategy was based on them. Even though Tegnell was still trying to claim their modelling figures were not far off when even a blind man could see they were.

charlie14 · 10-07-2020 11:12PM

YFlyer wrote: »

I haven't been on this page in over a month. Do I need to grind the numbers on Worldometer to gain the current understanding?

Not much to see on there. Sweden on holidays so daily figures mean nothing as they may be added to later.

Bit cynical · 10-07-2020 11:21PM

charlie14 wrote: »

It is difficult to know what Sweden`s daily deaths are with holidays affecting reporting, but I doubt they are less than Portugal`s daily average over the last two weeks of less than 7.

As I said earlier, per capita, Sweden's daily deaths are still higher (1.2 per million average over 7 days) than Portugal (0.8) but if we look at the chart we see Sweden's figure falling quite rapidly but Portugal's rising. If the trend continues then Portugal will be higher on daily deaths in about ten days.

The point here is that it is possible that Portugal with its relatively mild outbreak, did not gain much immunity whereas other countries like Belgium, Italy etc. did.

charlie14 · 10-07-2020 11:55PM

Bit cynical wrote: »

As I said earlier, per capita, Sweden's daily deaths are still higher (1.2 per million average over 7 days) than Portugal (0.8) but if we look at the chart we see Sweden's figure falling quite rapidly but Portugal's rising. If the trend continues then Portugal will be higher on daily deaths in about ten days.
The point here is that it is possible that Portugal with its relatively mild outbreak, did not gain much immunity whereas other countries like Belgium, Italy etc. did.

Due to holidays Sweden`s daily reports are very unreliable. You have only to look back the last few weeks and see how they were adding to earlier daily numbers.
Portugal and Sweden have the same population. Portugal have 1646 deaths. Sweden 5,526. over three times greater. If comparative charts show anything it`s the difference between lockdown and no lockdown.
I realise as a supporter of Sweden`s strategy you would like to see some immunity advantage for them, but I`m afraid there is nothing to indicate it.

SeaBreezes · 11-07-2020 12:05AM

charlie14 wrote: »

You are the great believer that antibodies will restore health.

Have you even seen the figures for the percentages that have developed antibodies ?
In Sweden alone from 50,000 tests only 6.1% nationally have developed antibodies.
In an even larger test group in Spain, the third worst affected country in Europe, the percentage was the same.
And nobody has a clue of how effective they will be or for how long.

That's so depressing.

What do you think about the T-cell immunity being suggested charlie? Would that help build herd immunity do you think?

I maybe grasping at straws, but would be wonderful to see a ray of light ..

Bit cynical · 11-07-2020 12:07AM

charlie14 wrote: »

Due to holidays Sweden`s daily reports are very unreliable. You have only to look back the last few weeks and see how they were adding to earlier daily numbers.

However generally deaths with a lag of over two weeks are a very low percentage percentage of the total, 1 to 2%. The vast majority of deaths reported in a given day have occurred within the previous two weeks, so if we see a downward trend in reported deaths as we have seen since April, then this is a good indication that daily deaths are indeed falling. This is confirmed when we compare the graph of reported daily deaths with the graph of actual daily deaths. The two largely coincide with a lag of about ten days.

11-07-2020 12:01PM

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-antibodies.html

Not Sweden but is does have implications

mcsean2163 · 11-07-2020 10:41PM

Deleted User wrote: »

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-antibodies.html

Not Sweden but is does have implications

Nor sure what it means... It's €90 in Dublin for an antibody test, so it might just mean that there are a lot more hypochondriacs in the richer areas whereas people in the poorer areas only get tested if they were really sick! That would mean the actual disease rates in the different areas could actually be very similar...

mcsean2163 · 11-07-2020 10:46PM

SeaBreezes wrote: »

That's so depressing.

What do you think about the T-cell immunity being suggested charlie? Would that help build herd immunity do you think?

I maybe grasping at straws, but would be wonderful to see a ray of light ..

I'm not Charlie but ...

https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/if-antibodies-fall-short-of-covid-19-immunity-call-the-t-cells-abeb5cae6832

T-cells Might be the Missing Key
Most vaccines to date, however, rely on antibodies produced by B-cells. The aim is to prime the immune system to deploy a stronger antibody response to neutralize a specific infection before it causes symptoms. But what about the other branch of the adaptive immune system, T-cells?
“Most people are generally not aware of T-cell immunity, and so much of the conversation has focused on antibody levels.”
The adaptive immune system means it adapts. They mount immune responses catered to one specific infection and then remembers it. Vaccines work by exploiting the latter. And the adaptive immune system comprises B-cells (that produce antibodies) and T-cells (that kill infected cells and recruit other types of immune cells, including B-cells).

TLDR: antibodies don't last long. T Cells to the max.

bb1234567 · 12-07-2020 10:49PM

Sweden hasn't reported any updates in a week and a half wtf?

YFlyer · 13-07-2020 12:00AM

bb1234567 wrote: »

Sweden hasn't reported any updates in a week and a half wtf?

Using Trumps approach.

JimmyVik · 13-07-2020 07:44AM

bb1234567 wrote: »

Sweden hasn't reported any updates in a week and a half wtf?

Must be bad.

Bit cynical · 13-07-2020 09:06AM

bb1234567 wrote: »

Sweden hasn't reported any updates in a week and a half wtf?

Well, there's not really a need to report so regularly now as there's a fairly well established downward trend in daily deaths and positive test cases that is set to continue. However I suspect you are looking at a secondary source rather than official statistics.

kaahooters · 13-07-2020 09:10AM

Bit cynical wrote: »

Well, there's not really a need to report so regularly now as there's a fairly well established downward trend in daily deaths and positive test cases that is set to continue. However I suspect you are looking at a secondary source rather than official statistics.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

they have been reporting,and ther eis a need to know the death rate, espically by demographic, still valid information.

cnocbui · 13-07-2020 10:31AM

What is this about Sweden not publishing figures?

As of July 10th, 5,526 people have been confirmed as having died after testing positive for the coronavirus in Sweden. That's an increase from 5,500 on July 9th, but the increase is not necessarily all from the past 24 hours, due to a delay in the way Swedish regions report their figures.

Since the start of the outbreak, 2,470 corona patients have been in intensive care as of July 10th, which also includes fatalities and patients who have recovered and been discharged (no change from July 9th)

There have been 74,898 confirmed cases of the coronavirus as of July 10th (up from 74,333).

July 10th:

Today Sweden reported a further 26 deaths with the coronavirus bringing the total since the start of the outbreak to 5,526. But the total number of patients who have received intensive care treatment for the disease saw no change.

https://www.thelocal.se/20200310/timeline-how-the-coronavirus-has-developed-in-sweden

Bit cynical · 13-07-2020 11:21AM

cnocbui wrote: »

What is this about Sweden not publishing figures?

I think it is people looking at data aggregating sites rather than official figures mainly. Then if the site loses its link or fails to update a particular set of figures, they assume that Sweden is not reporting something rather than investigating.

charlie14 · 13-07-2020 12:44PM

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think it is people looking at data aggregating sites rather than official figures mainly. Then if the site loses its link or fails to update a particular set of figures, they assume that Sweden is not reporting something rather than investigating.

I`m not sure that may be the only reason. Three weeks ago Sweden published daily figures that were quite high which Worldometers covered. The following week, even though the total number remained the same, those daily numbers had been reduced and added to other days further back.

We have seen how Sweden`s weekend reports were always slow in coming through, so with holidays there at the moment the same is more than likely happening.
I`m not saying the overall figures will change, but perhaps rather than go back and add or subtract Worldometers are leaving days blank until they get a better idea of the actual daily figures.

Bit cynical · 13-07-2020 01:04PM

charlie14 wrote: »

I`m not sure that may be the only reason. Three weeks ago Sweden published daily figures that were quite high which Worldometers covered. The following week, even though the total number remained the same, those daily numbers had been reduced and added to other days further back.

Possibly this is true. Sweden don't report numbers on the weekends and it is possible that with staff on holidays the current numbers are depressed somewhat. If so we will see increased numbers in the coming weeks. I would not expect the increase, if it occurs, to be that significant as the numbers themselves have been reducing the last few months anyway.

However I think you will agree that this is not the same as "Sweden hasn't reported any updates in a week and a half wtf". This is more likely due to a failure on the part of whatever site the poster had been looking at since Sweden themselves have been reporting statistics during that time.

Cyrus · 13-07-2020 04:24PM

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/11/second-wave-covid-swedish-approach-will-have-right-along/?WT.mc_id=e_DM1265932&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_Edi_New_Reg&utmsource=email&utm_medium=Edi_Edi_New_Reg20200713&utm_campaign=DM1265932

charlie14 · 13-07-2020 04:46PM

Cyrus wrote: »

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/11/second-wave-covid-swedish-approach-will-have-right-along/?WT.mc_id=e_DM1265932&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_Edi_New_Reg&utmsource=email&utm_medium=Edi_Edi_New_Reg20200713&utm_campaign=DM1265932

A report "suggests" that 30% of Swedes have immunity but no mention of the actual report.
I would be very sceptical of suggestions where we have seen just how far the Swedish Public Health Agency`s claims on immunity levels were off when the results of tests became known.
Less than 4 weeks ago their national antibody tests from 50,000 samples showed just 6.1%. To get from 6.1% too 30% in that length of time, with their R number under 1, just does not seem feasible

cnocbui · 13-07-2020 05:04PM

This is so funny and deadly accurate:

It is now considered gauche to compare Sweden to Britain, Italy, Spain or any other country that had a higher death rate. You are only allowed to compare it to its immediate neighbours where the death rate is lower. Mention the UK or, heaven forbid, Belgium (which locked down a week before the UK and has the highest COVID-19 death rate in the world) and you will be told that they should have locked down sooner. The proposition becomes unfalsifiable. Heads they win, tails you lose.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/11/second-wave-covid-swedish-approach-will-have-right-along/?WT.mc_id=e_DM1265932&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_Edi_New_Reg&utmsource=email&utm_medium=Edi_Edi_New_Reg20200713&utm_campaign=DM1265932

Does the Author hang out on this thread?

biko · 13-07-2020 05:09PM

Besides the gushers in this thread and in the English papers, the only known facts are that Sweden have done a bad job so far.

There is a lot of "if's" but those are still just "if's".

cnocbui · 13-07-2020 05:12PM

charlie14 wrote: »

A report "suggests" that 30% of Swedes have immunity but no mention of the actual report.
...

It's probably this one:

The new research, from the Karolinska Institutet and Karolinska University Hospital, suggests the antibody data does not tell the full story.
The researchers analysed samples from 203 people and said their results indicated roughly twice as many people had developed Covid-19 immunity through T-cells, than had developed detectable antibodies.
T-cells are a type of white blood cell specialised in recognising virus-infected cells, and are an essential part of the immune system. When they encounter antigens – the molecules that fight off viruses – they are programmed to fight the same or similar viruses.
About 30 per cent of donors in the study who had given blood in May 2020 had Covid-19-specific T-Cells, the Swedish study found.

13-07-2020 08:02PM

cnocbui wrote: »

This is so funny and deadly accurate:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/11/second-wave-covid-swedish-approach-will-have-right-along/?WT.mc_id=e_DM1265932&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_Edi_New_Reg&utmsource=email&utm_medium=Edi_Edi_New_Reg20200713&utm_campaign=DM1265932

Does the Author hang out on this thread?

How do you manage to still get things so wrong?

PHEs & journalists across Europe and users on this very thread have been comparing Sweden, Denmark, Norway & Finland with each other since March while arguing that comparing geographically distant countries that have very little in common is pointless.

The article can't be accurate since the quote you provided is making the false claim that people are only now arguing that Sweden is not directly comparable to the likes of Italy or the UK.

It can't be accurate if it's premise is known to be incorrect. Yet you're on here sneering about how you've been right all along, while tragically yet AGAIN getting it so badly wrong. I've asked before and you've never answered, are you genuinely allergic to facts/empirical evidence?

charlie14 · 13-07-2020 08:11PM

cnocbui wrote: »

It's probably this one:

Just found that myself and the names rang a bell.
The Karolinska Institutet and Karolinska University Hospital were doing research on antibodies and released a report then as well.
22 April they said that over 11% in Stockholm had developed antibodies.
The report was withdrawn and never republished as far as I know.
I month later test results showed just 7.3%.

cnocbui · 13-07-2020 08:14PM

Deleted User wrote: »

How do you manage to still get things so wrong?

PHEs & journalists across Europe and users on this very thread have been comparing Sweden, Denmark, Norway & Finland with each other since March while arguing that comparing geographically distant countries that have very little in common is pointless.

The article can't be accurate since the quote you provided is making the false claim that people are only now arguing that Sweden is not directly comparable to the likes of Italy or the UK.

It can't be accurate if it's premise is known to be incorrect. Yet you're on here sneering about how you've been right all along, while tragically yet AGAIN getting it so badly wrong. I've asked before and you've never answered, are you genuinely allergic to facts/empirical evidence?

Really? You know, if you look hard enough, and for long enough, you might eventually find someone who cares about what you write if they are into snide and abrasive. Don't give up hope, there is always a chance!

Sweden avoiding lockdown

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