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General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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    #5672
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users Posts: 39,689 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    jmayo wrote: »
    So does your wan from Galway, but it still isn't the same.
    Optics can mean a lot.

    You can try spin any way you want, or any way that FG wants ;), it is a slap in the face for Calleary.

    FFS he is the junior in Martin's department.

    How much more humiliating than that can you get.

    If Calleary has a backbone he will knife Martin first chance he gets.

    BTW seen as you seem to be in the know, what departmental supports does Chief Whip get?
    Other ministers get advisers, their own personal ones, other departments have a whole slew of civil servants.
    What does the Chief Whip get?

    Why would FG need to spin something that MM made a balls of. Watching Dara Calleary in the convention centre on Saturday evening, you could tell by the body language and head on him that he was pissed. I mean you'd have to wonder how a deputy leader of FF isn't a government minister. I don't normally feel sorry of politicians but even I felt sorry for him.


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    #5673
    Coillte_Bhoy
    Registered Users Posts: 7,892 ✭✭✭Coillte_Bhoy


    [QUOTE=Bass Reeves;113884042]Calleary is one of a number of FF TD's that cost the party seats. They polled too strong and did not split there vote with running mates add Niall Collins and O'Dea to this list in this election and the last one. Until FF start to be ruthless with these individuals who consider there constituency's as personnel fifedoms then they will always struggle to maximize there vote to seats ratio[/QUOTE]

    I dont agree, it would have taken a miracle for them to get 2 seats in Mayo on their FPF vote, no matter what vote management they had come up with


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    #5674
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,240 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    Why would FG need to spin something that MM made a balls of. Watching Dara Calleary in the convention centre on Saturday evening, you could tell by the body language and head on him that he was pissed. I mean you'd have to wonder how a deputy leader of FF isn't a government minister. I don't normally feel sorry of politicians but even I felt sorry for him.

    Equally though you have to wonder how an experienced politician and deputy leader of the party can't manage to keep internal party disagreements private?

    Totally get his feelings of frustration etc. but he's just handed everyone a stick to be his party with..


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    #5675
    blanch152
    Registered Users Posts: 27,347 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »
    I dont agree, it would have taken a miracle for them to get 2 seats in Mayo on their FPF vote, no matter what vote management they had come up with

    I have just had a look at the figures.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayo_(D%C3%A1il_constituency)#2020_general_election

    There were two candidates - Calleary(FF) and Dillon (FG) elected on the last count with Chambers (FF) losing out.

    Combined, the two FF candidates had 22,547 votes. Divided equally, that would have given them 11,273 each. Dillon only had 10,977 votes.

    It was a longshot but it would have been a lot closer had Calleary split the vote better, criticism of him is justified from that perspective.


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    #5676
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,556 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Deleted User wrote: »
    https://westernpeople.ie/2020/06/29/emotional-calleary-recounts-very-difficult-conversation-with-micheal-martin/#.XvnMDG1KjX4

    He was interviewed on local radio this morning.

    Very bad start for MM, the knives are out for him already in almost half the country and thats just FF supporters.

    The "chief whip is going to be a big job in this government" talk sounds really patronising.


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    #5677
    seligehgit
    Registered Users Posts: 9,286 ✭✭✭seligehgit


    Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »
    I dont agree, it would have taken a miracle for them to get 2 seats in Mayo on their FPF vote, no matter what vote management they had come up with


    Totally agree.Lisa Chambers had more or less a free run in the a large portion of the county.Dara Calleary does not strike me as the sort of an individual who treats a constituency as his personal fiefdom.

    I genuinely feel sorry for Dara Calleary.The deputy leader of the party is not seen worthy of a ministry,illogical in the extreme.He was worthy of a seat at cabinet when you look at the talent/lack of same in the Fianna Fail ranks.

    Irrespective of the ideals that a senior minister serves the national interest the perception exists that the western seaboard has been treated with contempt in the cabinet selection.


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    #5678
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users Posts: 5,803 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    EPP backs Pascal Donohue to be Eurogroup president, which gives him a numerical edge over the Spanish Finance Minister:

    https://twitter.com/EPP/status/1277644820614385666


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    #5679
    Coillte_Bhoy
    Registered Users Posts: 7,892 ✭✭✭Coillte_Bhoy


    blanch152 wrote: »
    I have just had a look at the figures.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayo_(D%C3%A1il_constituency)#2020_general_election

    There were two candidates - Calleary(FF) and Dillon (FG) elected on the last count with Chambers (FF) losing out.

    Combined, the two FF candidates had 22,547 votes. Divided equally, that would have given them 11,273 each. Dillon only had 10,977 votes.

    It was a longshot but it would have been a lot closer had Calleary split the vote better, criticism of him is justified from that perspective.

    Combined they had 15.5k fpf, FG combined had 27.3k, im sorry but it was never happening. Chambers defeat was largely down to her losing a sizeable chunk of her own vote in the Castlebar area. Its easy to say in hindsight it was Calleary's fault but thats simply not the case


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    #5680
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,217 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Being Chief Whip gives you real hands on with all the back benchers. A great position to build support if you have leadership ambitions.
    Calleary by publicly sulking has done damage. The senior people in the party won't be thankful to him.


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    #5681
    eagle eye
    Registered Users Posts: 37,860 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    Seth Brundle wrote:
    I'd say Leo and FG are delighted that FF have walked themselves into an internal dispute over who gets the top jobs
    Why? They need years to recover from their disastrous last few years in government and their horrific approach early on to covid-19.
    The parties not in government will grow if there's an early election.


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    #5682
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 8,856 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Water John wrote: »
    Being Chief Whip gives you real hands on with all the back benchers. A great position to build support if you have leadership ambitions.
    Calleary by publicly sulking has done damage. The senior people in the party won't be thankful to him.

    He’s absolutely blown it- once a western deputy takes a senior ministerial portfolio over the next year he’ll be dumped - a pathetic spoiled brat performance over last few days and from listening to him on radio and tv this evening I think he knows that now.


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    #5683
    markodaly
    Registered Users Posts: 14,060 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    If Lisa Chambers was elected she would probably be Minister for Education now. It was a big blow for FF not to have her on board.


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    #5684
    il gatto
    Registered Users Posts: 3,021 ✭✭✭il gatto


    mariaalice wrote: »
    Your faith in politicians and the decisions they make effecting investment and growth in an area is touching.

    Things happen despite politicians not because of them, a good example would be when home workign becomes the norm for some individual or at least part home working it may help with reviewing rural decline, it evolved naturally as technology developed and has nothing to do with politicians.

    No doubt you will still get politicians demanding a visit from the IDA and new roads because it goes down will with the local base.

    Your attempt at condescension is appreciated. But my “faith” is based in actuality. TDs promise the earth and deliver nothing. Ministers get stuff done in their constituency. It shouldn’t work like that but it does. As someone who’s seen their area without a minister for 30 years, it’s abundantly clear how this negatively affects a region.


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    #5685
    mariaalice
    Registered Users Posts: 12,412 ✭✭✭✭mariaalice


    il gatto wrote: »
    Your attempt at condescension is appreciated. But my “faith” is based in actuality. TDs promise the earth and deliver nothing. Ministers get stuff done in their constituency. It shouldn’t work like that but it does. As someone who’s seen their area without a minister for 30 years, it’s abundantly clear how this negatively affects a region.

    I wasn't being condescended, I pointed out the reality of how little influence politicians and political decisions have ( not no influence ) in the modern interconnected world particularly absurd claims that they will halt rural decline.


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    #5686
    seamus
    Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    eagle eye wrote: »
    Why? They need years to recover from their disastrous last few years in government and their horrific approach early on to covid-19.
    The parties not in government will grow if there's an early election.
    FG?

    If there had been an election called instead of a new government, FG would have walked away with it; probably with an overall majority.

    That's why FF have gone into this seemingly conceding some of the top spots. FG have Tainaiste, Finance, Justice and Foreign Affairs.

    FF need time now to lick their wounds, see the economy come back to normal, repair their reputation and hope that some of the shine will be gone from FG in the meantime.


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    #5687
    eagle eye
    Registered Users Posts: 37,860 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    seamus wrote:
    FG?
    If there had been an election called instead of a new government, FG would have walked away with it; probably with an overall majority.
    I know there are some Irish people that are stupid but the last election showed where FG were at.
    Since then they let people off to Cheltenham, let skiers come home and not have to self-isolate, let in Italian rugby fans even though there was no match.
    How on earth anybody would think they'd improve their position is beyond me unless you think Irish people are really stupid?
    seamus wrote:
    That's why FF have gone into this seemingly conceding some of the top spots. FG have Tainaiste, Finance, Justice and Foreign Affairs.
    It's not like FF are a huge party. They are not winning, neither are FG, it's the Greens who are winning sadly.
    seamus wrote:
    FF need time now to lick their wounds, see the economy come back to normal, repair their reputation and hope that some of the shine will be gone from FG in the meantime.
    FF need Martin gone and they'll probably stay ahead of FG.


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    #5688
    guyfawkes5
    Registered Users Posts: 291 ✭✭guyfawkes5


    seamus wrote: »
    If there had been an election called instead of a new government, FG would have walked away with it; probably with an overall majority.
    That's extremely far from certain. FG also led in polls prior to the election, almost certainly due to their handling of Brexit. Once the election started, voters started to think of who they wanted to shape the country for the next five years and FG's lead fell away.

    We don't know how the 'green jersey' effect we're seeing right now would pan out in a post-crisis election.


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    #5689
    Roanmore
    Registered Users Posts: 1,801 ✭✭✭Roanmore


    guyfawkes5 wrote: »
    That's extremely far from certain. FG also led in polls prior to the election, almost certainly due to their handling of Brexit. Once the election started, voters started to think of who they wanted to shape the country for the next five years and FG's lead fell away.

    We don't know how the 'green jersey' effect we're seeing right now would pan out in a post-crisis election.

    They were falling before the election, ever since the RIC commemoration debacle when SF successfully portrayed it as a Black and Tans commemoration. SFs numbers went up after that.


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    #5690
    seamus
    Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    eagle eye wrote: »
    How on earth anybody would think they'd improve their position is beyond me unless you think Irish people are really stupid?
    The only data we have right now is an opinion poll on 20th June that gave Varadkar a 75% approval rating and FG 35% of the vote.

    These things do drift in an election, but Martin would have been looking at that data and realising the strong position that FG were in. Even if an election were called, it would be very difficult for any party to justify going on the attack against FG in the morning and then in the evening standing up and repeating the government advice about Coronavirus.


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    #5691
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,217 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    The RIC debacle by Flanagan created a visceral gut reaction that some FG people just didn't see coming or indeed what was wrong with it.
    It was a turning point.


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    #5692
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Water John wrote: »
    The RIC debacle by Flanagan created a visceral gut reaction that some FG people just didn't see coming or indeed what was wrong with it.
    It was a turning point.

    I think you have it exactly.

    Suddenly the old blue shirt became visible for all as the mask sliped.

    The Brexit handling was brilliant, but suddenly we could see the real FG.

    Shudder.


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    #5693
    beggars_bush
    Registered Users Posts: 4,402 ✭✭✭beggars_bush


    Hope everyone saw the footage of SF leadership at a funeral for an IRA person in west Belfast

    Surely Mary Lou should not be travelling to the north?


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    #5694
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    beggars_bush wrote: »
    Hope everyone saw the footage of SF leadership at a funeral for an IRA person in west Belfast

    Surely Mary Lou should not be travelling to the north?

    She has to follow orders.


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    #5695
    il gatto
    Registered Users Posts: 3,021 ✭✭✭il gatto


    mariaalice wrote: »
    I wasn't being condescended, I pointed out the reality of how little influence politicians and political decisions have ( not no influence ) in the modern interconnected world particularly absurd claims that they will halt rural decline.

    Then I’m afraid your naivety is touching. How it’s supposed to work (funds allocated due to need and potential upside) as opposed to how it actually works (Castlebar tennis club having an all weather dome and Stepaside Garda Station reopening) are very different things. This country is totally run on pork barrel politics and areas without ministerial clout get the scraps.


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    #5696
    elperello
    Registered Users Posts: 14,604 ✭✭✭✭elperello


    beggars_bush wrote: »
    Hope everyone saw the footage of SF leadership at a funeral for an IRA person in west Belfast

    Surely Mary Lou should not be travelling to the north?
    Sam Russell wrote: »
    She has to follow orders.

    I don't see why she wouldn't travel to the North after all they are an all - Ireland party.


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    #5697
    Peregrinus
    Registered Users Posts: 26,243 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    il gatto wrote: »
    Then I’m afraid your naivety is touching. How it’s supposed to work (funds allocated due to need and potential upside) as opposed to how it actually works (Castlebar tennis club having an all weather dome and Stepaside Garda Station reopening) are very different things. This country is totally run on pork barrel politics and areas without ministerial clout get the scraps.
    Yes, but whether having an all-weather dome or a a reopened garda station in Stepaside make any difference at all to the long-term health, happiness, welfare, prosperity and success of the citizens of Mayo or Dublin South is open to question. Ministers distribute baubles like these and voters value them, but they would be fools to think that these are the decisions that matter.


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    #5698
    mariaalice
    Registered Users Posts: 12,412 ✭✭✭✭mariaalice


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    Yes, but whether having an all-weather dome or a a reopened garda station in Stepaside make any difference at all to the long-term health, happiness, welfare, prosperity and success of the citizens of Mayo or Dublin South is open to question. Ministers distribute baubles like these and voters value them, but they would be fools to think that these are the decisions that matter.

    The politician themselves like to think the constitutions will reward them for the babuals. The days of the fat chief politician are dying off due to the education levels of most of the population. The media love to whip it up a bit though.

    The media always seem to be behind the curve on cultural change in rural Ireland.


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    #5699
    beggars_bush
    Registered Users Posts: 4,402 ✭✭✭beggars_bush


    elperello wrote: »
    I don't see why she wouldn't travel to the North after all they are an all - Ireland party.

    Foreign travel isn't advised


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    #5700
    Peregrinus
    Registered Users Posts: 26,243 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    beggars_bush wrote: »
    Foreign travel isn't advised
    Overseas travel isn't advised. The advice explicitly states that this applies to Great Britain, but does not apply to Northern Ireland.


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    #5701
    Hermy
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 11,332 Mod ✭✭✭✭Hermy


    elperello wrote: »
    I don't see why she wouldn't travel to the North after all they are an all - Ireland party.

    Perhaps it's the event rather than the location that's the issue.

    Genealogy Forum Mod



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