General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

blanch152 wrote: »

Your are correct, it is absolutely true and perfectly factual. I agree with you.

However, what does it tell us about the 125 TDs elected on the platform of removing FG? It tells us that they aren't up to the job of governing by compromise in a coalition, unless they have FG to show them how it's done.

FF are the lead party in the current attempt to form a government, effectively they will remove the current Taoiseach and replace him with their own, to show FG and the Greens 'how it is done'.

Whatever about that, there is no constitutional onus on anybody to form a government if they cannot reach consensus or if there is no point even trying.

Won't be bothered voting Green again. I support their climate and transport policies but if they're just going to hide away on the opposition benches then voting for them again is a waste of a vote.

There is an opportunity cost here that a lot of the anti-PFG GP people I see on Twitter don't seem to confront.

From their point of view, collapsing the deal may end up creating a situation where SF and/or a weakened FF end up signing up to an agreement far more acceptable to an idealistic left worldview. However, I would think it's far more likely that their current role of king-makers to two cowed centrist parties is the best they will do and both the GP and their policies would suffer in a post-PFG world.

It must be incomprehensible to a typical well-off voter from the Dublin suburbs that lent their first preference to a GP candidate that the party would be so close to going into government with most of their signature policies (to the general public) intact, only to pull out because the agreement does things for homelessness, etc, but 'not enough'. A lot of voters I talked to pre-election aren't aware of or don't really think of the GP as a party of the left, and some are genuinely surprised when I raised it.

There have a lot of political capital right now that would be burned immediately upon rejecting a deal to go into government.

The personas of their current battle right now in their membership seems to be the older, wooly jumper geography teachers against the younger, woke, Extinction Rebellion types. The worrying thing is the latter just has to get to 33% to 'win'.

What specific government combination would you prefer instead? Would you prefer another election right now? What party would you prefer to get stronger out of that election?

I'm not in love with the idea of the current coalition at all, and see a lot of compromises with the usual FG fingerprints all over them that I don't like, but it seems to me that this government is the best outcome with the least risk right now, and doing anything else is taking a very big chance and the attitude of 'anything else would be best' mistakes how much worse this could get.

beggars_bush wrote: »

The alternative is an election

And personally that’s what I would prefer,

I don't think FF or FG want to go into government. I think they want everybody to think they tried really hard and then get a midweek election. The left got a big bump from a weekend election with students, who are mainly idealists, at home and able to vote.

eagle eye wrote: »

I don't think FF or FG want to go into government. I think they want everybody to think they tried really hard and then get a midweek election. The left got a big bump from a weekend election with students, who are mainly idealists, at home and able to vote.

Considering basically everyone is at home currently and any election would be in summer; there would be bog all difference based on day of the week

WishUWereHere wrote: »

While I respect Your opinion, I hope they get their 33.31% and sink this charade of a pretentious government.

33.31% is less than a third though...

33.3333333333333333333334% or so should do it however!

Like you though, I hope they get their (100/3)% + 1 vote and kill this possibility of FF being back in power.

It's very hard to gauge what way the GP is leaning on ratifying this agreement.

The distribution of likes and retweets would have you believe it's a No landslide, but announcing on Twitter you're against a deal with establishment parties for not being sufficiently socialist/restributive is like moths to a flame.

The GP youth organisation has come out against the agreement by two thirds, but they only represent ~100 or so members if I recall.

Some GP TDs are leaking that they are confident of ratification.

Absolutely no idea what will happen.

Good loser wrote: »

That FG TD from Dun Laoghaire is a real star - seriously intelligent.
She debated with Ml McNamara today on the Sarah McInerney Show and didn't put a foot wrong. Took care of Sarah too.


Fg easily have the smartest crew of TD's in the Dail.

I think she's well able, and with the likes of Sarah it might be because she's quite similar to her.

Sarah's meat and drink is men over 50.

hardybuck wrote: »

I feel like the Green Party have gotten a free pass regarding the ability of members in the North to have a say on the outcome of ROI affairs.

SF were rightly criticised for the same thing but no such criticism for the Greens.

Are the Green Party, a 1 island party like SF

StupidLikeAFox wrote: »

I don't think they got a free pass, there has been lots of criticism around how much say the northern member will have in this vote

If they have I haven't seen it.

If that's true then perhaps it's more accurate to say that SF got a much tougher grilling over it.