Herd immunity. Where is the evidence it is not an option?

FVP3 · 07-05-2020 01:21PM

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

I wonder if the old and vulnerable people appreciate it at all.

The boomers are quite a costly generation, in the West.

Hoboo · 07-05-2020 01:23PM

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Us healthy people just need to take our chances and catch the disease at a steady, manageable rate.

I'd be concerned for my health having seen what it can do to healthy people. I'd also be concerned about possible repercussions in 12 months or 24 months time after recovery, we don't know the outcomes.

But I'd be agreeable to allow anyone who wishes to act the guinea pig to go right ahead........Ill wait to see how you get on.

El_Duderino 09 · 07-05-2020 01:30PM

is_that_so wrote: »

The list of at risk groups is quite substantial. Asthma & COPD alone would be 1m people and six in 10 are obese.

https://www2.hse.ie/conditions/coronavirus/people-at-higher-risk.html#very-high-risk

Absolutely. And a lot of those people are also old. All vulnerabilities are not the same. An old person with COPD is surely more vulnerable than a young fat person.

FVP3 · 07-05-2020 01:30PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Measles is extremely transmissable and we have a very cooperative vector at work there! 60%-70% is estimated for COVID-19 but we've very little evidence of how many people have acquired immunity so far, just lots of guesses. Personally reckon we'll need some form of mitigation via treatment availability.

People don't get that the herd immunity is the inverse of the (original) R0, or just above it. The more transmittable it is to begin with, the larger the number of people in the community that need to be immune to make sure that the final R0. < 1.

El_Duderino 09 · 07-05-2020 01:33PM

Hoboo wrote: »

I'd be concerned for my health having seen what it can do to healthy people. I'd also be concerned about possible repercussions in 12 months or 24 months time after recovery, we don't know the outcomes.

But I'd be agreeable to allow anyone who wishes to act the guinea pig to go right ahead........Ill wait to see how you get on.

Yeah now that's a truly selfish attitude to take. The old and vulnerable need to be cocooned to protect them. The rest of us need to get on with it and get it over time to achieve herd Immunity. I doubt anyone is volunteering to get it. But we can't stay in lockdown for years to wait for a vaccine.

I think the cowardly attitude demonstrated above is truly discouraging.

El_Duderino 09 · 07-05-2020 01:37PM

FVP3 wrote: »

The boomers are quite a costly generation, in the West.

The most entitled generation. Never stop holding their hand out, take little responsibility for the environment, expect young people to pay their pensions and health care instead of having rising wages to buy a house of their. All the while never thinking to be grateful.

I'd say old people wouldn't even acknowledge the fact. Young people would need three hands to give money to the boomers fast enough.

boege · 07-05-2020 02:00PM

People need to get herd immunity out of their head for now. There is no reliable information on post recovery immunity, and, even if it exists, no information on how long it would last.

This virus has done its damage whilst only penetrating a single digit percentage of the population. The range I have seen across a number of small scale studies in populations around the world is around 3% with 12-15% as the upper limit for highly injected areas and where hospital systems were overrun. Those studies may even be suspect as there does not yet appear to be a widely available antibody test, although that statement is changing as we speak.

I would expect that treatments will improve and with that will come improved outcomes and reduced fatalities. Fatality rates do seem to be falling as the disease spread stabilizes and data gets more reliable. Sub 1% now looks increasingly like where we will end up. However, there is still no clear understanding as to why some get it so severely, or why some are asymptomatic , or why children seem so immune.

In my work (education sector) at a senior management meeting today the timeline being discussed for 'living with this virus' is now 2-3 years.

JimmyVik · 07-05-2020 02:15PM

FVP3 wrote: »

The boomers are quite a costly generation, in the West.

I have 2 nephews in their 20s without a care in the world, who are going out and meeting their friends all through the lockdown. One of them said to me on a call the other day when I said can you not stay in and help stop the spread. He said, "I'll be ok. Its only old people who can get it. I'll take my chances."

The little pup hadnt even a thought that his mother is recovering from cancer and he is possibly bringing the virus into the house.
Thats what we are dealing with.

Imagine if this mutated next year, more people infected, more chance of mutation, and became more like the 1918 Spanish flu, where it killed 20 - 40 year olds and spared the older people. I wonder if many posters in this thread would change their tune.

Del Griffith · 07-05-2020 02:36PM

JimmyVik wrote: »

Imagine if this mutated next year, more people infected, more chance of mutation, and became more like the 1918 Spanish flu, where it killed 20 - 40 year olds and spared the older people. I wonder if many posters in this thread would change their tune.

I'd want the non vulnerable out there building herd immunity

FVP3 · 07-05-2020 03:04PM

boege wrote: »

People need to get herd immunity out of their head for now. There is no reliable information on post recovery immunity, and, even if it exists, no information on how long it would last.

As I said the vaccine wont work unless people get immunity. Its unlikely that people aren't immune given the way immune systems work, and were it the case that they weren't, we would probably be seeing fairly high re-emergance amongst people who were infected. Not just one or two cases, thousands or tens of thousands.

This virus has done its damage whilst only penetrating a single digit percentage of the population. The range I have seen across a number of small scale studies in populations around the world is around 3% with 12-15% as the upper limit for highly injected areas and where hospital systems were overrun. Those studies may even be suspect as there does not yet appear to be a widely available antibody test, although that statement is changing as we speak.

The highest I have seen is the 30% in Stockholm, which would get to herd immunity pretty fast if they continue to open up.

Anyway, we will be opening up, the flatten the curve time was designed to reduce pressure on hospitals and create more beds and space, get PPE sorted and so on.

BarryD2 · 07-05-2020 03:10PM

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

The most entitled generation. Never stop holding their hand out, take little responsibility for the environment, expect young people to pay their pensions and health care instead of having rising wages to buy a house of their. All the while never thinking to be grateful..

Presume you're taking the piss

If you are by any small chance serious, you really need to take a long hard look at younger peoples expectations these days. Most of the elderly in this country worked a damn sight harder and made do with far less, when they were starting out.

As for herd immunity, we can have no idea until we do more widespread testing.

FVP3 · 07-05-2020 04:17PM

BarryD2 wrote: »

Presume you're taking the piss

If you are by any small chance serious, you really need to take a long hard look at younger peoples expectations these days. Most of the elderly in this country worked a damn sight harder and made do with far less, when they were starting out.

As for herd immunity, we can have no idea until we do more widespread testing.

Of course having it hard when young and getting it easier with age is exactly the kind of outcome denied to millenials and younger.

El_Duderino 09 · 07-05-2020 05:24PM

BarryD2 wrote: »

Presume you're taking the piss

If you are by any small chance serious, you really need to take a long hard look at younger peoples expectations these days. Most of the elderly in this country worked a damn sight harder and made do with far less, when they were starting out.

As for herd immunity, we can have no idea until we do more widespread testing.

Being perfectly serious. The young people today are working to pay the pensions of the old peope and they have no expectation of having a similar pension waiting for them when they retire (after he retirement age keeps peeing pushed into the future).

It's just the way it is. The old have no idea that it's beyond most young people to aspire to own their own home, for example.

But in any case we'll shut down the economy to protect the for the old and vulnerable, and the young and healthy will go out and catch the virus to build up herd Immunity and then the young will work and pay to keep the old people in pensions and health care. The young will work to pay off the debt accumulated during this crisis. And it will never even cross the old people's minds to say thanks or even suggest they understand or appreciate the work the young people do for them. That's real entitlement - not a smashed avocado sandwich now and again.

El_Duderino 09 · 07-05-2020 05:31PM

FVP3 wrote: »

Of course having it hard when young and getting it easier with age is exactly the kind of outcome denied to millenials and younger.

Wages used to rise for the boomers and I think they presume wages are still rising for young people now, but it isn't. Instead young people have to pay for the boomers as they age and cost a fortune in health care and pensions. Young people do it because it's our duty. We sacrifice the things the boomers feel entitled to, in order to give those things to the boomers - pensions, health care covered, the ability to buy a house.

And the young will sort out the COVID problem too by catching the disease, building herd Immunity and finding solutions to the changes in business. And then we'll go back to working to pay to keep the old in the lifestyle to which they've become accustomed.

It's just the way it is.

pgj2015 · 07-05-2020 05:40PM

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Wages used to rise for the boomers and I think they presume wages are still rising for young people now, but it isn't. Instead young people have to pay for the boomers as they age and cost a fortune in health care and pensions. Young people do it because it's our duty. We sacrifice the things the boomers feel entitled to, in order to give those things to the boomers - pensions, health care covered, the ability to buy a house.

And the young will sort out the COVID problem too by catching the disease, building herd Immunity and finding solutions to the changes in business. And then we'll go back to working to pay to keep the old in the lifestyle to which they've become accustomed.

It's just the way it is.

Exactly, so just get on with it and stop bitching about it. sounds like you want the old rounded up and shot. Blaming the old because you cant afford a house is like blaming the government for all your problems, pointless.

El_Duderino 09 · 07-05-2020 05:47PM

pgj2015 wrote: »

Exactly, so just get on with it and stop bitching about it. sounds like you want the old rounded up and shot. Blaming the old because you cant afford a house is like blaming the government for all your problems, pointless.

Rounded up and shot? Get a grip of yourself.

But, as I said, it's the young people's duty to do these things no matter how entitled and ungrateful the old people are.

And young, healthy people will solve the Immunity problem so the old people can get back to normal life as quick as possible. Then we can get back to paying the old folks' pensions while they give out about us.

That's just the way it is.

pgj2015 · 07-05-2020 05:53PM

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Rounded up and shot? Get a grip of yourself.

But, as I said, it's the young people's duty to do these things no matter how entitled and ungrateful the old people are.

And young, healthy people will solve the Immunity problem so the old people can get back to normal life as quick as possible. Then we can get back to paying the old folks' pensions while they give out about us.

That's just the way it is.

You sound like a spoilt kid. cop on and stop worrying about something so pointless. my parents barely had enough money for food when they built their house. young people these days spend their money on fancy holidays, cars, clothes, 3 day stag/hen dos, and all the other crap they dont need.

I dont plan on ever having kids but do you think I will be moaning about the tax I pay being spent on schools, creches, playgrounds etc, no because that is just the way life is.

maybe the older people really do appreciate what the younger people are doing, did you ever ask some of them?

JimmyVik · 07-05-2020 05:55PM

FVP3 wrote: »

Of course having it hard when young and getting it easier with age is exactly the kind of outcome denied to millenials and younger.

Im almost 40.
Gotta say. Things definitely have gotten easier as the years have gone by.
I never would have thought they would have gotten better when I was in my 20s. People move on as they get older. What seemed impossible and you thought would never happen, suddenly gets easier as you mature and get a better focus and start to realize that you have to take things on yourself and whining does you no good.

If I was to look at the gulf in my wisdom between 10 years ago and now, I reckon i'll be a wise old man altogether in my 50s.

The change in my life and my outlook has been immense in the last 10 years.
So much so that now when I hear someone in their 20s whining and complaining and trying to make out its the older generations fault for everything I just laugh it off to myself. No point trying to talk to them. I just think of how naive I was too. I used to think it was my generation who were left out and propping everyone else in the country up and that they were suppressing my ability to buy a house or earn more money. And then I wised up.

People should watch this series. Its bloody fantastic.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Up_(film_series)

FVP3 · 07-05-2020 07:58PM

JimmyVik wrote: »

The change in my life and my outlook has been immense in the last 10 years.
So much so that now when I hear someone in their 20s whining and complaining and trying to make out its the older generations fault for everything I just laugh it off to myself. No point trying to talk to them. I just think of how naive I was too. I used to think it was my generation who were left out and propping everyone else in the country up and that they were suppressing my ability to buy a house or earn more money. And then I wised up.

No, then you bought a house. And of course when you buy a house your attitude automatically changes, because now you are a house owner. Workers do prop up older people on pensions, and when the present generation of younger people are old they wont have pensions of that level. And they will have higher debt, and more expensive housing.

People should watch this series. Its bloody fantastic.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Up_(film_series)

Again you are missing something, if UP shows that people got richer over their generations then that means those generations were lucky, wages are stagnating now in the West ( less obvious in Ireland).

El_Duderino 09 · 08-05-2020 10:30AM

pgj2015 wrote: »

You sound like a spoilt kid. cop on and stop worrying about something so pointless. my parents barely had enough money for food when they built their house. young people these days spend their money on fancy holidays, cars, clothes, 3 day stag/hen dos, and all the other crap they dont need.

I dont plan on ever having kids but do you think I will be moaning about the tax I pay being spent on schools, creches, playgrounds etc, no because that is just the way life is.

maybe the older people really do appreciate what the younger people are doing, did you ever ask some of them?

We are getting on with it. We're solving the problems and picking up the bills creates by the old. What's spoilt about that?

The old people I speak to have no clue what's happening let alone be grateful for it. When old people hear the job I have they think we must be minted. They have a clue that wages haven't grown for millennia because wages used to grow.

But look, we're dealing with it. We've adjusted our expectations downward as a generation. We expect to work to pay rent to old people who have multiple properties. We expect to work to pay the old people's pensions and health care. We expect old people to vote for the old parties.

The young will sort out the coronavirus situation. The young will be the best ones to get the virus to help reach herd Immunity. We'll sort it. Doesn't worry. But maybe remember to say thanks.

Grab All Association · 08-05-2020 10:44AM

The boomers, a generation that stood back and did nothing in the 1980s when a number of the district hospitals nationwide were shut. And now they complain about the fact they are stuck on trolleys in corridors with their minor ailments.

pgj2015 · 08-05-2020 10:44AM

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

We are getting on with it. We're solving the problems and picking up the bills creates by the old. What's spoilt about that?

The old people I speak to have no clue what's happening let alone be grateful for it. When old people hear the job I have they think we must be minted. They have a clue that wages haven't grown for millennia because wages used to grow.

But look, we're dealing with it. We've adjusted our expectations downward as a generation. We expect to work to pay rent to old people who have multiple properties. We expect to work to pay the old people's pensions and health care. We expect old people to vote for the old parties.

The young will sort out the coronavirus situation. The young will be the best ones to get the virus to help reach herd Immunity. We'll sort it. Doesn't worry. But maybe remember to say thanks.

How many posts have you dedicated to complaining about why the old are causing all your problem? doesnt sound like you are getting on with it.

I am a young person myself and it has never crossed my mind to blame the older generation for house prices, cost of living etc

You know we had a boom the last few years? there was a lot of money to be made. I was unemployed first half of 2016, I set up a business in July 2016. Now I am looking to buy a house without a mortgage, if I can do it anyone can.

your posts sound like you are trolling but if not you seriously need to stop wasting your time going around moaning about the old population.

El_Duderino 09 · 08-05-2020 10:52AM

pgj2015 wrote: »

How many posts have you dedicated to complaining about why the old are causing all your problem? doesnt sound like you are getting on with it.

I am a young person myself and it has never crossed my mind to blame the older generation for house prices, cost of living etc

You know we had a boom the last few years? there was a lot of money to be made. I was unemployed first half of 2016, I set up a business in July 2016. Now I am looking to buy a house without a mortgage, if I can do it anyone can.

your posts sound like you are trolling but if not you seriously need to stop wasting your time going around moaning about the old population.

In each post on this topic I've said we are getting on with it. We are sorting it, we are paying for it. What more do you want us to do, never even talk about it? Get up the yard

El_Duderino 09 · 08-05-2020 10:54AM

Grab All Association wrote: »

The boomers, a generation that stood back and did nothing in the 1980s when a number of the district hospitals nationwide were shut. And now they complain about the fact they are stuck on trolleys in corridors with their minor ailments.

Tax evasion was sport back then. Not even something to be ashamed of. Now they whinge about lack of state funding for services they need. Hard to make it up.

threeball · 08-05-2020 11:12AM

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Tax evasion was sport back then. Not even something to be ashamed of. Now they whinge about lack of state funding for services they need. Hard to make it up.

The older generation went through hardship that would make you crawl up in a ball and cry yourself to sleep every night. You think you have it hard because you have to get by on 40 or 50k a year and the price of houses has gone up. How will you survive you can discuss with your mates over your frapuccino when this is all over before you head off to chapter one and wonder why you haven't enough money for a mortgage.

JimmyVik · 08-05-2020 11:20AM

FVP3 wrote: »

No, then you bought a house. And of course when you buy a house your attitude automatically changes, because now you are a house owner. Workers do prop up older people on pensions, and when the present generation of younger people are old they wont have pensions of that level. And they will have higher debt, and more expensive housing.

Again you are missing something, if UP shows that people got richer over their generations then that means those generations were lucky, wages are stagnating now in the West ( less obvious in Ireland).

No I didnt.

El_Duderino 09 · 10-05-2020 09:21PM

threeball wrote: »

The older generation went through hardship that would make you crawl up in a ball and cry yourself to sleep every night. You think you have it hard because you have to get by on 40 or 50k a year and the price of houses has gone up. How will you survive you can discuss with your mates over your frapuccino when this is all over before you head off to chapter one and wonder why you haven't enough money for a mortgage.

Oh right. I mean, you're wrong on all the details of my life there.

There's a crisis of sorts happening right now and young people will solve it, not crawl up into a ball and cry. Well get slagged off by older people even as we solve the crisis, as we were before and will be after. Getting it done for everyone's benefit.

mickdw · 10-05-2020 09:46PM

FVP3 wrote: »

People don't get that the herd immunity is the inverse of the (original) R0, or just above it. The more transmittable it is to begin with, the larger the number of people in the community that need to be immune to make sure that the final R0. < 1.

How accurate is the R number they have been working on since day one though. If all the simulations were based on it appearing here end of feb and reaching the levels it did in a few weeks, the true R0 could be much lower if in fact the virus is here since november or december.

JimmyVik · 11-05-2020 08:45AM

I see Germany are only just getting into loosening up and things arent going so well.

South Korea too. Linked to the pubs as well.
People not taking this virus seriously is resulting in people dying. How hard is that for some people to understand.

All they are asked to do is stay home for a while.
If they do that and then be very careful as we come out of lockdown we will come out the other side quite quickly.
If they dont then its back into lockdown and back to square one again.
All because of the idiots.

Cop on people.

Mike3287 · 11-05-2020 09:01AM

JimmyVik wrote: »

I see Germany are only just getting into loosening up and things arent going so well.

South Korea too. Linked to the pubs as well.
People not taking this virus seriously is resulting in people dying. How hard is that for some people to understand.

All they are asked to do is stay home for a while.
If they do that and then be very careful as we come out of lockdown we will come out the other side quite quickly.
If they dont then its back into lockdown and back to square one again.
All because of the idiots.

Cop on people.

Contadicting yourself there Jimmy

We will never be able to come out of lockdown if virus is present

Herd immunity. Where is the evidence it is not an option?

Comments