The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

S.M.B. · 01-05-2020 05:08PM

A Dub in Glasgo, devnull

I'm not doing cartwheels in excitement in hearing the news in how they are recording these tests, I just think in the grand scheme of things this 100,000 target has become a millstone and not a milestone and I just want to move past it and at least take some comfort in the fact that 'testing' has been ramped up a considerable amount in the past few weeks.

bilston · 01-05-2020 05:09PM

80,000 tests a day, 100,000 tests a day or 122,000 tests a day, either one of those amounts is quite impressive.

It should have happened earlier though.

01-05-2020 05:10PM

devnull wrote: »

Indeed and it also goes against their mantra that their numbers and decisions are not based on assumptions but are evidence led* unlike other peoples.

* - as long as the evidence goes their way.

Have you asked NHS_Susan what she thinks?

S.M.B. · 01-05-2020 05:12PM

122,000!!! It's a may day miracle!

Joe_ Public · 01-05-2020 05:12PM

It's been a distraction and i dont trust anything Hancock says but they are at least in a better place now than 2 weeks ago. Still catching up but getting there.

Hancock was making it sound like they've landed a man on Mars. Steady on there matt.

theological · 01-05-2020 05:18PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

It's been a distraction and i dont trust anything Hancock says but they are at least in a better place now than 2 weeks ago. Still catching up but getting there.

Hancock was making it sound like they've landed a man on Mars. Steady on there matt.

So bitter!

He achieved the goal, and exceeded the target. The testing figure daily is pretty close to what they are doing in Germany now. That's a big step forward. I think praise where praise is due, people were saying here he wouldn't do it.

EDit · 01-05-2020 05:25PM

Was reading this article earlier https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52504183

While I agree with the Heathrow guy, the thing that struck me from the article was the part about 500 passengers waiting on their luggage... (1) why is the UK still letting people into the country in the middle of a pandemic, and (2) what kind of moron thinks it’s a good idea to travel internationally in the middle of a pandemic

Joe_ Public · 01-05-2020 05:31PM

theological wrote: »

So bitter!

He achieved the goal, and exceeded the target. The testing figure daily is pretty close to what they are doing in Germany now. That's a big step forward. I think praise where praise is due, people were saying here he wouldn't do it.

Bitter about what? I think it's good they're now catching up on their testing capabilities, only way they can get out of this. But i dont trust Hancock and am sceptical about their figures. I dont see any earthly reason why i should quite frankly.

They've had 10-12 weeks to get to this position so while welcome, forgive me if i decline the opportunity to hand out the medals. Was it Whitty there boasting about Britain now being a "world leader"? They are more than capable of singing their own praises without any help from me.

brickster69 · 01-05-2020 05:41PM

Sky News and Piers Morgan will be in tears now

devnull · 01-05-2020 05:42PM

theological wrote: »

So bitter!

He achieved the goal, and exceeded the target. The testing figure daily is pretty close to what they are doing in Germany now. That's a big step forward. I think praise where praise is due, people were saying here he wouldn't do it.

Your posts are unbelievable really and show that you have no real interest in having a proper, informed and constructive debate. You'll just spin a narrative that suits you and whether it is true or not does not matter as you'll claim it's true anyway.

To quote the Health Service Journal
https://www.hsj.co.uk/story.aspx?storyCode=7027544

The government has changed the way it is counting the number of covid-19 tests carried out in a bid to hit its target of 100,000 tests per day by the end of April, HSJ can reveal.

Previously, a test would be counted once the sample had been processed in laboratories. But this definition has been changed in the last few days, a senior source told HSJ.

The Department of Health and Social Care is now including tests that have been posted or delivered to people’s homes in its figures. This means tests which are sent to people are counted before the recipient has provided and returned their sample to a laboratory.

Of course you ignore this because it doesn't suit your agenda so instead you just parrot what the Government says without considering anything else whatsoever because you have blind faith in them. Many people have had blind faith in people who have lied to them or obfuscated things or spun them in the past and normally sooner or later it doesn't end in a good way.

The original target was that they would perform 100,000 tests a day, it was not saying that they would arrange 100,000 tests a day. Tests which are sent out are not ones that are performed, they are ones that may be performed but it seems now the Government assumes that they have all been performed despite spending the last months saying making assumptions is bad and instead it's far more prudent to use numbers backed up by evidence since the former is theoretical and the later is factual.

By their own criteria they initially set they have failed but because they decided coming out and saying they didn't hit the target, but are getting closer and from now on we will be presenting the number of tests in a different way wasn't politically prudent, they decided it would be better to change the way that they calculated the numbers to make them bigger because when it came to a decision between total transparency and political self-preservation, the later won.

The same way that they started changing the start point of graphs when the numbers got a little too big, because it would be better to change the way the graph is calculated rather than plot the values on the same graphs that they had been using for weeks that would show them in a bad light. Then they also start casting doubt on the quality of data sources of graphs that look bad for the UK, having spent the previous weeks praising the same data sources when the UK line looked more favourable.

And the recent claim that there's now transparency is laughable, there's none at all, even the idea that a resident asks a question is not even transparency since it will be cherry picked before the conference is conducted with plenty of time for a pre-prepared answer to be curated. They're creating an illusion that there is some but in reality there isn't and some people are either having too much blind faith and have a confirmation bias or just plain easily duped.

Joe_ Public · 01-05-2020 05:47PM

Took 2 journalists asking there before we got final confirmation that tests posted out are counted in the total. That seems to suggest 39,000 of the total are tests that havent actually been done yet, merely posted out.

Also they should not be counting those surveillance tests in the overall total. They are not reliable tests and dont meet the criteria as regards the set target. Only 3,000 but still.

That still leaves 80,000 which is a reasonable total but let's see how many people actually tested.

theological · 01-05-2020 05:47PM

devnull wrote: »

Your posts are unbelievable really and show that you have no real interest in having a proper, informed and constructive debate. You'll just spin a narrative that suits you and whether it is true or not does not matter as you'll claim it's true anyway.

My posts provide balance by showing the other side of the argument that doesn't get aired here.

I'm interested in discussing the issues. You just want the thread to be an echo chamber. I can't do that for you.

devnull wrote: »

To quote the Health Service Journal
https://www.hsj.co.uk/story.aspx?storyCode=7027544

I saw this. The testing figure is 22,000+ over 100,000. Well over the target in any case even if I was to allow some reduction if you exclude home testing kits.

Enzokk · 01-05-2020 05:54PM

They have not reached their target. They are very close though and I don't think there is anything to be ashamed of that they are around 80 000 per day instead of 100 000. I think it would have been better to have owned that they missed the 100 000 people tested per day target but added the caveat that 40 000 tests were posted on the same day. You could then set the next target.

Instead this whole thing is now treated as some victory when we are still only at the start of this pandemic and they will now need to move to 100 000 people tested per day and then onto 150 000 per day. There is no time to gloat and those that feel vindicated by the UK Government having to fudge the numbers to get to their own stated target needs to think again what they are celebrating.

Just out of interest, it will be interesting to see what the number of tests will be for the next week. How many tests will be done in the immediate aftermath of the massive push, will it be maintained or will there be a slowdown?

Enzokk · 01-05-2020 05:56PM

theological wrote: »

My posts provide balance by showing the other side of the argument that doesn't get aired here.

I'm interested in discussing the issues. You just want the thread to be an echo chamber. I can't do that for you.

I saw this. The testing figure is 22,000+ over 100,000. Well over the target in any case even if I was to allow some reduction if you exclude home testing kits.

The UK Government position gets repeated enough times without you needing to amplify it.

I found it interesting once the questions became harder about the tests the follow up questions stopped from Hancock. He seemed to become a little agitated towards the end there.

theological · 01-05-2020 05:57PM

Enzokk wrote: »

The UK Government position gets repeated enough times without you needing to amplify it.

I found it interesting once the questions became harder about the tests the follow up questions stopped from Hancock. He seemed to become a little agitated towards the end there.

I'm entitled to post what I like irrespective of whether you or others agree.

A proper discussion on this topic requires representation of different viewpoints. If you want this to be an echo chamber I apologise, but I won't provide this for you by stepping aside.

Joe_ Public · 01-05-2020 06:00PM

It's the relentless spin every day that is wearing. 70,000-80,000 would have been fine to get to, whole thing just turned into a farce. Hancock sounded like he was giving an Oscar acceptance speech earlier. No doubt there'll be plenty of cheerleaders to lap it up.

devnull · 01-05-2020 06:00PM

theological wrote: »

I saw this. The testing figure is 22,000+ over 100,000. Well over the target in any case even if I was to allow some reduction if you exclude home testing kits.

The only reason that they passed the target was because of the fact the figures now include the home tests that have been sent out and assumptions of the number of home tests that have been carried out, otherwise it has been said that they would have been 20,000 short.

Hancock himself has said that 27,497 home kits were delivered while 12,782 kits were delivered by other organisations. We do not know if these tests have been carried out but they have been counted as being carried out regardless which means that the government has broke it's own rules about it's decisions and statistics having to be evidence led rather than based on assumptions.

So this is a government that flip flops and is full of hypocrisy, double standards and changing the rules to suit itself.

In summary what we've learned in the last few days:

A data source is good and trustworthy when it doesn't paint them in a bad light, but when it does it suddenly becomes a bad one.
A graph scale and axis types and start points are appropriate when it doesn't paint a bad picture but no longer appropriate when it paints a bad one.
A methodology for counting figures is always appropriate to count those figures until the day that it doesn't hit where someone wants it to, then a new methodology is required.
Everything has to be factually evidenced until the factual evidence doesn't stack up in your favour and then it doesn't need to be evidence led anymore.
Assumption led decisions are bad and unreliable shouldn't be used, but they are reliable when they help you achieve something you couldn't evidence.

Harry Palmr · 01-05-2020 06:05PM

Just think if Hancock hadn't set a target on his own head much of the last XX pages of this dismal thread wouldn't have existed. Yes Hancock it's all your fault. Ramping up pressure there and here.

01-05-2020 06:06PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

It's the relentless spin every day that is wearing. 70,000-80,000 would have been fine to get to, whole thing just turned into a farce. Hancock sounded like he was giving an Oscar acceptance speech earlier. No doubt there'll be plenty of cheerleaders to lap it up.

He was making it very clear that this is a fantastic achievement by a huge number of people and wanted to provide credit where it is due. I thought what he said was very good and clearly has a good grasp of what is going on.

It’s a shame that an achievement like this, just as with the nightingale and Louisa Jordan hospitals, people would rather tear down than congratulate those efforts.

Harry Palmr · 01-05-2020 06:11PM

Why do you think we should swoon at their feet? They are the government of the 6th largest economy in the world this should be perfectly doable for them. Just imagine how much better the situation would have been if they'd have been clued up in the first instance.

robinph · 01-05-2020 06:11PM

It's only the home testing kits that they are counting in advance, and there was 27k in today's total. So they didn't do the 100k,but does it really matter that they missed the target by a couple of thousand?

Joe_ Public · 01-05-2020 06:14PM

Aegir wrote: »

He was making it very clear that this is a fantastic achievement by a huge number of people and wanted to provide credit where it is due. I thought what he said was very good and clearly has a good grasp of what is going on.

It’s a shame that an achievement like this, just as with the nightingale and Louisa Jordan hospitals, people would rather tear down than congratulate those efforts.

I'm sure lots of people will be hugely appreciative and blisfully overlook whatever sleights of hand were used to get there. Personally i just cant overlook them, sorry. As already stated, it's fine if they're really only doing 60-70,000 or thereabouts. From where they were its reasonable progress.

Enzokk · 01-05-2020 06:19PM

theological wrote: »

I'm entitled to post what I like irrespective of whether you or others agree.

A proper discussion on this topic requires representation of different viewpoints. If you want this to be an echo chamber I apologise, but I won't provide this for you by stepping aside.

Then don't get your underwear in a twist when you are called out on repeating the government line when there are problems with the line. Also proper discussion doesn't require different viewpoints. Fascism is bad, Nazism was bad. We don't need to know the other side to have a proper discussion about it.

robinph wrote: »

It's only the home testing kits that they are counting in advance, and there was 27k in today's total. So they didn't do the 100k,but does it really matter that they missed the target by a couple of thousand?

I thought it was closer to 40 000 tests that was delivered? The reading of the breakdown makes it seem like this was,

27,497 home kits had been delivered
12,872 tests delivered through the satellite process

That seems to indicate these tests weren't done but they are still waiting for them to be returned to get tested.

Update at 17h53

devnull · 01-05-2020 06:22PM

Aegir wrote: »

He was making it very clear that this is a fantastic achievement by a huge number of people and wanted to provide credit where it is due. I thought what he said was very good and clearly has a good grasp of what is going on.

Why was he congratulating people for doing less tests that they did yesterday? Shouldn't he be thanking the spin doctors who are trying to hoodwink the public into believing they've performed more tests than they have?

It's very hard to debate with you when you are not willing to have a discussion about the key matters at hand and at least acknowledge that the government have decided to change the way the data is collated in order to hide the fact that if they hadn't have done so, they would have missed the target.

People only start assuming things in figures when they either don't know the true figures or that they know that the true figures won't paint a favourable situation so instead they have to look at ways of artificially increasing them by changing how they re collated.

As I said earlier, tonight they could have come out and said they missed the target but they had sent x number of tests out and talk about how testing is going to rapidly increase, but they decided that political self-preservation by obfuscation was more important than being transparent with the public.

devnull · 01-05-2020 06:25PM

Enzokk wrote: »

I thought it was closer to 40 000 tests that was delivered? The reading of the breakdown makes it seem like this was,

That seems to indicate these tests weren't done but they are still waiting for them to be returned to get tested.

Update at 17h53

Sky said something similar:
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-government-exceeds-100-000-a-day-testing-target-for-covid-19-11981859

Health Secretary Matt Hancock said 122,347 people had been tested for COVID-19 yesterday - but until now the figures have only included tests that had reached labs.

In the latest figures, results included tests sent to individuals at home and satellite testing locations.

A total of 27,497 home kits were delivered yesterday, while a further 12,872 tests were carried out in satellite locations.

This means a total of 81,978 tests reached labs in yesterday's tally.

Generally that Sky article comes over pretty well, presenting the figures and letting people make their own mind up, some of the other outlets could learn a lot from that.

Enzokk · 01-05-2020 06:32PM

devnull wrote: »

Sky said something similar:
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-government-exceeds-100-000-a-day-testing-target-for-covid-19-11981859

Generally that Sky article comes over pretty well, presenting the figures and letting people make their own mind up, some of the other outlets could learn a lot from that.

The thing that gets me, we are now talking about this and they were asked questions about the home tests. The next questions that will be asked, who asked for these home tests? Instead of taking attention away from it by taking a "hit" on missing the target, they set another on their backs by including this figure for the next week.

I also wonder how many of the tests sent out will be viable to get a result? The swab is apparently quite unpleasant and I wonder how someone at home will do it properly.

Dave0301 · 01-05-2020 06:39PM

robinph wrote: »

It's only the home testing kits that they are counting in advance, and there was 27k in today's total. So they didn't do the 100k,but does it really matter that they missed the target by a couple of thousand?

No not really, and to be fair, they have increased testing capacity massively.

I do find the spin and deliberate misdirection tiresome though. Just say, x many tests were conducted today, and x many were sent out.

devnull · 01-05-2020 06:44PM

Dashboard on UK Government Website now updated:
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#history

The number of people tested by pillar is only showing 73,191 for the period.

RobMc59 · 01-05-2020 06:49PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I'm sure lots of people will be hugely appreciative and blisfully overlook whatever sleights of hand were used to get there. Personally i just cant overlook them, sorry. As already stated, it's fine if they're really only doing 60-70,000 or thereabouts. From where they were its reasonable progress.

.The UK population will be happy testing has ramped up significantly and the rest of the world will see that the UK is working very hard to defeat this virus.
If you and a few others choose to put a negative spin on this achievement,that's up to you.I doubt many UK people will loose any sleep about that-I certainly won't.

Joe_ Public · 01-05-2020 06:55PM

devnull wrote: »

Dashboard on UK Government Website now updated:
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#history

The number of tests by pillar is only showing 73,191 for the period, which not only is far below the 122,347 headline figure, but is also below the 81,978 figure for non home tests which was presented today.

Is there is misprint on the Government's own website or does the 122,347 figure really overstate the tests by a staggering 66%?

73,191 is the number of people actually tested which is a big jump from the total the day before.

The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

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