The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

Leroy42 · 29-04-2020 12:59PM

Raab said in PMQ that total deaths are 27,241, so out of hospital deaths are at a far lower rate than in Scotland and other countries based on that (IIRC hospital deaths are around 20k+).

Joe_ Public · 29-04-2020 01:02PM

Interesting stat mentioned by starmer that although 43,000 tests were announced yesterday, only 29,000 people were actually tested.

So while retesting is obviously not unusual, 14,000 still seems a very high number, over 35% of the overall total.

Joe_ Public · 29-04-2020 01:09PM

Such a disingenuous performance by raab. Starmer picked him up a couple of times but it's hard to really nail these guys down.

Starmer reminded Raab that he'd said on marr on Sunday that care home deaths, like in hospital deaths, were declining. Which is untrue of course. Raab replied that it was "within the margin of error" which again is blatantly false as we now know deaths in care homes are way higher than the figures are suggesting.

He then claims we cant really compare deaths internationally as countries have different ways of counting. But he neglected to mention they are quite happy to put up the graph at the briefing every day showing them tracking italy and France on the basis of hospital deaths only.

bob mcbob · 29-04-2020 01:53PM

This is interesting from the CDC in the US. It shows the cause of death for all states on a week by week basis this year. In particular, it shows the deaths identified as covid, pneumonia and flu.

Flu is pretty consistent across the 4 months but pneumonia almost trebles between Jan and April.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

LuckyLloyd · 29-04-2020 01:53PM

https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1255183452527374337?s=20

46k or thereabouts is the true death toll to date.

To understand how badly the UK are doing, this graph helps:

https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1255147479466565636?s=20

British politics is well past normal times, but in normal times Johnson and Cummings would be under pressure to resign ahead of an inquiry.

Dave0301 · 29-04-2020 02:01PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Raab said in PMQ that total deaths are 27,241, so out of hospital deaths are at a far lower rate than in Scotland and other countries based on that (IIRC hospital deaths are around 20k+).

I think there is a two week lag for the ONS compared to the NRS (it might not be two).

A Dub in Glasgo · 29-04-2020 02:04PM

Dave0301 wrote: »

I think there is a two week lag for the ONS compared to the NRS (it might not be two).

ONS - upto 17 April
NRS - upto 26 April

Strazdas · 29-04-2020 02:05PM

Dave0301 wrote: »

I think there is a two week lag for the ONS compared to the NRS (it might not be two).

The Daily Mail gave an 'official' figure today of about 33,000 deaths based on the government's own stats so I'm not sure why Raab is giving a smaller number.

Seth Brundle · 29-04-2020 02:08PM

Strazdas wrote: »

The Daily Mail gave an 'official' figure today of about 33,000 deaths based on the government's own stats so I'm not sure why Raab is giving a smaller number.

So many misleading figures from HMG that he's forgotten which one to use?

Joe_ Public · 29-04-2020 02:14PM

The ons number suits them perfectly for now. It doesnt include thousands who have died because the virus wasnt included on the death certificate so it's a hopeless underestimate but still gives them the opportunity to use it while banging on about how thorough and transparent they are being at the same time.

The ons number is around 4,500 care homes which makes the government figure of around 27,000 overall.

S.M.B. · 29-04-2020 02:16PM

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

To understand how badly the UK are doing, this graph helps:

https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1255147479466565636?s=20

British politics is well past normal times, but in normal times Johnson and Cummings would be under pressure to resign ahead of an inquiry.

If the numbers behind that graph are in any way accurate then this is utterly depressing.

Looks like it's primarily an issue in England as opposed to the rest of the UK too.

EWsuj0KUcAIsleP?format=jpg&name=small

RasTa · 29-04-2020 02:44PM

Some record

In the last 10 months alone, Boris Johnson has become PM, broke the constitution, started Brexit, won an election, got divorced, got engaged, nearly died, had a baby, and buggered up a pandemic so badly that 40 thousand people died.

We’ve got him for 5 years.

blinding · 29-04-2020 02:51PM

RasTa wrote: »

Some record

Good to live and die in interesting times. Death is part of living.

Professor Moriarty · 29-04-2020 02:56PM

Looks like the IHME modelling is going to turn out to be fairly accurate unfortunately. Despite the lies told by Johnson and his cronies.

serfboard · 29-04-2020 04:32PM

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

46k or thereabouts is the true death toll to date.

Chris Giles is after updating his numbers

47K. With a population of 68 million, that would put the UK's Deaths Per Million at 691, the most of any individual country in the world. (While noting that NY and NJ have rates of 1180 and 725 respectively).

Shocking stuff and we can see why they are low-balling the numbers. People might ask questions about why it happened, and start to hold people responsible.

hmmm · 29-04-2020 04:44PM

serfboard wrote: »

47K. With a population of 68 million, that would put the UK's Deaths Per Million at 691, the most of any individual country in the world. (While noting that NY and NJ have rates of 1180 and 725 respectively).

Shocking stuff and we can see why they are low-balling the numbers. People might ask questions about why it happened, and start to hold people responsible.

Does that include deaths in nursing homes? They only said yesterday they were going to start including them, but I didn't hear whether they were going to back-count the numbers.

Professor Moriarty · 29-04-2020 04:47PM

How could you possibly trust a government that counts PPE gloves individually to inflate numbers? To be so disingenuous in the midst of a pandemic? Why kind of people are they?

Joe_ Public · 29-04-2020 04:55PM

For whatever reason people just dont seem to be very good dot joiners.

Do you trust the government to deliver adequate ppe - overwhelmingly no.

Do you trust the government to meet its 100k testing target - overwhelmingly no.

Do you still think Boris Johnson is doing a good job - overwhelmingly yes.

Harry Palmr · 29-04-2020 05:01PM

Boris Johnson has played a blinder entirely by accident - gets sick, recovers, becomes dad all of which keeps him away from the bad spotlight and everyone forgets the early "we're going to flatten the Sombrero"/shakey handy nonsense as other cabinet members catch the flak instead.

Harry Palmr · 29-04-2020 05:13PM

Not the transport slide again!

VinLieger · 29-04-2020 05:27PM

Jesus looking at those graphs is horrifying stuff. How anyone can support their government after seeing those is beyond me.

Happy4all · 29-04-2020 05:51PM

UK Deaths yesterday: 21,678

UK deaths today: 26,097

An increase of 4,421.

Anyone know the breakdown between daily total today and the nursing homes added?

Seems a small jump that was anticipated

Joe_ Public · 29-04-2020 05:53PM

765 hospital figure added today.

3,811 care home between 2 march and 28 april

52,429 tests.

To be precise: 765 is todays hospital and care home figure (601 in hospital)

3,811 is historic but includes only those who died in care homes having been tested positive.

Harry Palmr · 29-04-2020 05:55PM

The controversy about the SAGE panel has prompted a reaction (the right one) from the government.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/apr/29/government-rushes-out-request-for-experts-bolster-sage-panel

The government has rushed out a request to universities to help expand the pool of scientific experts who are advising ministers during the coronavirus crisis, following concerns about the lack of expertise in some areas.

Researchers at British universities received requests on Wednesday morning to join the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) international and behavioural teams and were asked to declare their interest by the end of Thursday.

A notice sent to academics said the Government Office for Science was playing a central role in the UK’s response to the epidemic through Sage, the group led by the chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, and that “they are now looking for additional expert support”.

Joe_ Public · 29-04-2020 06:01PM

The spin at todays briefing was off the charts. Instead of we're tracking most other European countries we got we might look worse in comparison but you cant really trust the others when it comes to reporting figures anyway. Whereas we are the very definition of honesty and accountability. "Maximum transparency," said Raab.

Not a word about how they've been hiding behind incomplete figures for the past 6 weeks. Cast aspersions on others and hope enough people swallow their guff.

pablo128 · 29-04-2020 06:07PM

The place must be absolutely riddled. I was half hoping the MotoGp wouldn't be cancelled in Silverstone at the end of August for our yearly lads weekend. I'm actually afraid to go now.

Happy4all · 29-04-2020 06:09PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

The spin at todays briefing was off the charts. Instead of we're tracking most other European countries we got we might look worse in comparison but you cant really trust the others when it comes to reporting figures anyway. Whereas we are the very definition of honesty and accountability. "Maximum transparency," said Raab.

Not a word about how they've been hiding behind incomplete figures for the past 6 weeks. Cast aspersions on others and hope enough people swallow their guff.

Raab said tracking nursing home case is "complexed" ????

A Dub in Glasgo · 29-04-2020 06:09PM

The 26,097 deaths in the UK are deaths where the person tested positive with COVID-19. It does not include deaths where the person is suspected of having COVID-19 as declared on their death certificate

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Edit: I just noticed that the figure in the table and thus the total does not include the Scottish declared deaths today (+83) - how can they not even add?!

devnull · 29-04-2020 06:13PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

The spin at todays briefing was off the charts. Instead of we're tracking most other European countries we got we might look worse in comparison but you cant really trust the others when it comes to reporting figures anyway. Whereas we are the very definition of honesty and accountability. "Maximum transparency," said Raab.

Not a word about how they've been hiding behind incomplete figures for the past 6 weeks. Cast aspersions on others and hope enough people swallow their guff.

Indeed, very noticeable how when the graphs show something that doesn't look too bad to them they use this as evidence to support their statements but when the same data shows things that doesn't paint them in a favourable light then suddenly we are told that you cannot trust the data.

It's almost like there is an agenda at play. :rolleyes:

Joe_ Public · 29-04-2020 06:13PM

Happy4all wrote: »

Raab said tracking nursing home case is "complexed" ????

They make it sound as if including care home deaths is akin to landing a man on the moon. Lots of other countries been managing it seemingly without too much bother.

The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

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