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The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,383 ✭✭✭S.M.B.


    Pandemic talk on C4 is decent, nice to see a discussion on TV without any political agenda or spin involved.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Interesting programme with people discussing and debating in a civil manner, though did detect a bit of tension between the two female panellists there.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,346 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    CH 4 programme was good. Googled Sunetra Gupta, she's also a novelist.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Gupta appeared to be suggesting earlier on that since the virus wasnt really all that deadly, we shouldnt be afraid to drop the lockdown. The italian (i think) scientist next to her was not very impressed with that position.

    I liked Paul Nurse. They were told not to be political but he did sneak in the odd subtle jab, such as "you cant beat a pandemic with slogans." Overall quite a good programme.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,655 ✭✭✭kyote00


    41k deaths must be the highest number of deaths in the world?

    robinph wrote: »
    Those 41k are not spread evenly over the last two months of course, but when the regular weekly death rate is in the region of 9k-12k the 41k not being noticed by the population and coffins not piling up on makes more sense.

    The systems in place are so far handling the numbers, even if they are not handling the numbers of PPE required.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,125 ✭✭✭Akabusi


    kyote00 wrote: »
    41k deaths must be the highest number of deaths in the world?

    The USA are higher but if you mean per capita then yes.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,346 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    No, US is the highest, presently at over 46,000.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,276 ✭✭✭Memnoch


    robinph wrote: »
    Those 41k are not spread evenly over the last two months of course, but when the regular weekly death rate is in the region of 9k-12k the 41k not being noticed by the population and coffins not piling up on makes more sense.

    The systems in place are so far handling the numbers, even if they are not handling the numbers of PPE required.

    My brother works in an ICU in one of the big London hospitals. This is a guy that one month ago was extremely fit, athletic and well-built. Looking at him on video chat yesterday he looked like a shell of himself. If I didn't know better, I'd say he looked like a cancer patient that is how much he has gotten run down in the past few weeks.

    He is in ICU so they have good PPE. But the rest of his colleagues in the hospital are going around in just surgical masks when those are even available. They all know that these offer virtually no defense against the virus. But public health England declared that these are good enough so they have no choice. They are seeing hundreds of patients with Covid every day and many of his friends are signing eight or nine death certificates a night.

    The official government figures are around 18,000. The financial Times article puts the true figure closer to 41,000. That's 20,000 people who have died in care homes and in the community. Never having been tested and one would presume with very little treatment.

    My brother says that they are running short on sedative medications that are necessary to provide comfort to people who are struggling to breathe and dying and they're having to think creatively about this in ICU. I can only imagine the horrific situation in care homes where all of these people are being managed by staff that have limited medical training at best.

    So when you say that they seem to be managing the numbers I'm not sure what that is supposed to mean. The British government made a calculated decision to simply leave the elderly to die in the community. This has prevented the NHS from being overwhelmed and helped them to cover up the true extent of the devastation wrought by this virus on the country as a result of their ineptitude.

    But bringing infected elderly patients into hospital is not simply a question of whether or not they can receive effective treatment, it is also the only way to isolate them from the care home in which they live and to minimize the risk of further infections to the other residents. But since the British government decided to not test people in care homes this means that these residents have gone throughout their illness potentially for a period of 2 to 4 weeks being a source of infection to others in the facility. This is why you are seeing 10, 20, 30 people dying in a single facility once the virus gets in. This has also resulted in a high viral load for the staff working there who also do not have any effective protection due to the lack of PPE. I cannot even imagine the agony for all of these people who are passing away in the community and whether or not they even got any effective treatment or palliation in their last moments as they struggled to breathe.

    So I categorically disagree with your assertion that they have managed the numbers well.

    They have certainly massaged, manipulated and misrepresented the numbers well. Lies and spin seem to be their only area of competence. Perhaps that is what you meant.


  • Posts: 6,246 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Memnoch wrote: »
    My brother works in an ICU in one of the big London hospitals. This is a guy that one month ago was extremely fit, athletic and well-built. Looking at him on video chat yesterday he looked like a shell of himself. If I didn't know better, I'd say he looked like a cancer patient that is how much he has gotten run down in the past few weeks.

    He is in ICU so they have good PPE. But the rest of his colleagues in the hospital are going around in just surgical masks when those are even available. They all know that these offer virtually no defense against the virus. But public health England declared that these are good enough so they have no choice. They are seeing hundreds of patients with Covid every day and many of his friends are signing eight or nine death certificates a night.

    The official government figures are around 18,000. The financial Times article puts the true figure closer to 41,000. That's 20,000 people who have died in care homes and in the community. Never having been tested and one would presume with very little treatment.

    My brother says that they are running short on sedative medications that are necessary to provide comfort to people who are struggling to breathe and dying and they're having to think creatively about this in ICU. I can only imagine the horrific situation in care homes where all of these people are being managed by staff that have limited medical training at best.

    So when you say that they seem to be managing the numbers I'm not sure what that is supposed to mean. The British government made a calculated decision to simply leave the elderly to die in the community. This has prevented the NHS from being overwhelmed and helped them to cover up the true extent of the devastation wrought by this virus on the country as a result of their ineptitude.

    But bringing infected elderly patients into hospital is not simply a question of whether or not they can receive effective treatment, it is also the only way to isolate them from the care home in which they live and to minimize the risk of further infections to the other residents. But since the British government decided to not test people in care homes this means that these residents have gone throughout their illness potentially for a period of 2 to 4 weeks being a source of infection to others in the facility. This is why you are seeing 10, 20, 30 people dying in a single facility once the virus gets in. This has also resulted in a high viral load for the staff working there who also do not have any effective protection due to the lack of PPE. I cannot even imagine the agony for all of these people who are passing away in the community and whether or not they even got any effective treatment or palliation in their last moments as they struggled to breathe.

    So I categorically disagree with your assertion that they have managed the numbers well.

    They have certainly massaged, manipulated and misrepresented the numbers well. Lies and spin seem to be their only area of competence. Perhaps that is what you meant.

    If they are covering up 20K deaths,it will be found out......the british press arent stupid enough to try bury that story


    Its scary the numbers being bandied about with this virus


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Interesting segment on newsnight with ceo of big german firm Roche.

    UK politicians still insisting they will meet the 100k testing target by next week.

    German ceo: "Absolutely impossible."

    Was not aware it was the German firm actually rolling out their testing capacity and developing the antibody test for them. The ceo also said that years of underfunding the health service had basically fecked up their infrastructure. Can imagine those foreigner delivered home truths not going down very easily.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,088 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    Interesting segment on newsnight with ceo of big german firm Roche.

    UK politicians still insisting they will meet the 100k testing target by next week.

    German ceo: "Absolutely impossible."

    Was not aware it was the German firm actually rolling out their testing capacity and developing the antibody test for them. The ceo also said that years of underfunding the health service had basically fecked up their infrastructure. Can imagine those foreigner delivered home truths not going down very easily.

    I hope someone asks Mark Francois.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,569 ✭✭✭mugsymugsy


    I hope someone asks Mark Francois.

    Francois and co have been pretty quiet in the press/tv


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,088 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    mugsymugsy wrote: »
    Francois and co have been pretty quiet in the press/tv

    Of course they have. Brexit got done.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    There was actually a conservative mp on newsnight earlier (not francois) who asked about the public mood said they'd realise the government were doing a very difficult job and accept that mistakes are going to be made and be happy enough with them. Scarily, I believe there's a chance he might be right about that.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    Memnoch wrote: »
    So I categorically disagree with your assertion that they have managed the numbers well.

    I was responding to a comment wondering about why the people were not rioting in the streets due to an additional 41k deaths by pointing out that during the last 2 months around 80-120k people would have been dying in any other year anyway. Those numbers have been managed so far.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,655 ✭✭✭kyote00


    The FT article is saying that there is an extra 21k deads in the period over and above the normal periodicity

    Surely the role of government in any civil society is to protect its citizens and not sweep it under the carpet ?

    Every day some new shiny faced Tory takes to the podium to filibuster over the facts, while highlighting some unicorn drug developments in the Iveagh league colleges

    There has been a monumental **** up in the governments response to this - and two months into it, they still can't seem to get ahead of it.
    robinph wrote: »
    I was responding to a comment wondering about why the people were not rioting in the streets due to an additional 41k deaths by pointing out that during the last 2 months around 80-120k people would have been dying in any other year anyway. Those numbers have been managed so far.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,060 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    True, nobody really knows what the exact figure is but best estimates would be around the 40% mark or upwards. The whole way they've been reporting does beg questions. I'm not saying necessarily anything hooky here, but just feels like they only accept and acknowledge things when public or media pressure is brought and ita why they seem to be behind with so many things and people are losing more and more trust and god knows that was low enough to begin with.


    True on the responses being led by public outrage rather than solid science. Theological has been posting about it, how if the public pressure ramps up on easing the lockdown the government will be hard pressed to resist.

    As to the numbers, this article makes for depressing reading,

    GP calls for action after 125 of her care home patients die of Covid-19
    “I am really angry about this,” said Dr Anna Down, scanning her computer for figures to show how coronavirus has ravaged her patients living in nursing homes.

    “One home had 23 deaths, another lost 19, and another 13,” the Ealing GP said. “In two units 50% of residents died in the space of 10 days.”

    Down is the clinical lead at a practice with 1,000 residents on its books in 15 privately run nursing homes in the area of west London hit harder than anywhere in Britain by Covid-19 deaths in the first weeks of the outbreak. In a normal month, she might expect to lose around 28 people. In the last month she has lost 125.

    So that is 4 times the deaths she normally experiences in a month. The absolutely scary part is that this is probably not the peak for care homes if the other parts of the article is close to being accurate either,
    The last few weeks have been devastating on the frontline. The manager of the Ealing home where 23 people died in just two weeks described conditions as “terrible”.

    ...

    The manager repeated a refrain heard in care homes everywhere at the moment: “There is so much focus on the NHS but there is little done for care homes.

    “The staffing situation is getting critical. I have seven nurses and 12 care assistants off. The care home sector needs help: staff, protection and volunteers. This has been going on since the beginning of April and I still think we are heading for the worst.”

    And then finally on why the FT article that was estimating more than double the deaths than reported may not be far off with their numbers,
    Given there are more than 15,000 care homes in England and Wales, Prof Martin Green, the chief executive of sector association Care England, predicts care home deaths will outstrip hospital fatalities (17,337 in England and Wales by Tuesday).


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,088 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    Enzokk wrote: »
    And then finally on why the FT article that was estimating more than double the deaths than reported may not be far off with their numbers,
    Given there are more than 15,000 care homes in England and Wales, Prof Martin Green, the chief executive of sector association Care England, predicts care home deaths will outstrip hospital fatalities (17,337 [deaths] in England and Wales by Tuesday).

    That is a bleak and very obvious conclusion to draw. It's insane that people aren't up in arms about the reportage.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 2,931 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    That is a bleak and very obvious conclusion to draw. It's insane that people aren't up in arms about the reportage.
    They are desensitised and switched off. Decade of normalised nastiness and tugging of heart strings has come to roost.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,088 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    PommieBast wrote: »
    They are desensitised and switched off. Decade of normalised nastiness and tugging of heart strings has come to roost.

    It's amazing to think that back when this all kicked off in Italy and they were getting 1000 death per day and you had all over twitter and the rest of the cesspit of social media, Brits #prayingforitaly and the like.

    And yet, when they hit over 1000 deaths per day they haven't a bean.

    No uproar, stiff upper lip and a bit of a clap.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,831 ✭✭✭theological


    A few interesting updates from the Politico London Playbook newsletter:

    On testing:
    Testing, testing: Contact tracing only works if you have the capacity to test each and every possible victim, of course — which is why Health Secretary Matt Hancock’s target to reach 100,000 tests a day by the end of the month is now so important. And there was good news on that front too last night, as the government’s coordinator for COVID-19 testing, professor John Newton, said the 100k capacity will indeed be reached within the next eight days. “We will certainly have the capacity,” he told ITV’s “Peston” show. “And then we will make access as easy as possible for everybody who needs a test to come and get it. And if there are enough people who need testing, then we will hit our target — we’re very confident of that.” Good times.

    Magic number: Prof Newton was also clear that 100,000 tests a day should be sufficient for Korean-style “test and trace” program — but that the capacity could be doubled again if need be. “We’re very confident that 100,000 tests will be enough to support whatever strategy the government wants to pursue,” he said. “And if you look at other countries, for example South Korea, they’ve never done more than 20,000 tests a day — in fact they’re currently doing about 8,000 tests a day. So ‘yes’ is the answer, it will be enough. We will probably have more, actually … 100,000 a day is probably just the beginning.”

    On the wearing of face coverings outside:
    MASKING UP
    SAVING FACE: The government’s top scientific advisers have concluded Britons should cover their faces in crowded environments to help slow the spread of the virus, the Sun’s front page story says today. The Sun’s online Political Editor Natasha Clark bagged the scoop Wednesday morning after the SAGE committee of scientists met to discuss the issue on Tuesday. She says SAGE has now issued its guidance to ministers, who will consider whether to change their official advice to the public in the days ahead.

    How it’s going to work: The recommendation will apparently be for people to wear simple face coverings, rather than real masks, amid fears of mass panic-buying of surgical-standard kit which could further deplete the stocks available to the NHS. Scarves, bandanas or homemade cloth masks will do the job, many scientists say, as the aim is to stop virus carriers — who may not be showing any symptoms — from passing the disease on to others nearby. The Sun says the recommendation will be only to wear face coverings in crowded places like public transport or at work, where keeping 2 meters apart is not possible.

    Split decision: Playbook is told the new advice has indeed been issued to ministers, but that SAGE was far from unified at Tuesday’s meeting. Indeed, the expert panel was apparently the most divided it’s ever been, with some scientists warning of a lack of concrete evidence about the benefits of face-covering and others concerned about the effect on the availability of masks for the NHS.

    No-brainer: Commons health committee Chairman Jeremy Hunt was asked by Peston last night if mask-wearing in public is inevitable. “I think so,” he said. “I lived in Japan for a couple of years, and there it’s just a common courtesy — it has been for many years —that if you’ve got a cold, you wear a mask to stop passing it on to other people. I think the concern is that if that became general advice, we might run out of masks in the NHS, and that’s the reason for some of the hesitance. So I hope we are building up really big stocks — because for things like the tube, buses, I think it’s going to be a no-brainer. People are going to want to wear masks, frankly, whether they’re asked to or not.”

    Can confirm: Playbook was on the tube to parliament Wednesday, and about three-quarters of the passengers were masked up.

    Watch and wait: The Cabinet meets (virtually) today at 11 a.m., but government sources insist the decision will not be taken there; nor at the next COBRA meeting either. “We’re not expecting to say anything imminently,” one official said last night, though with Matt Hancock leading tonight’s Downing Street press conference, he is bound to be quizzed again on this topic. One source points out — quite rightly — that it would be vital to “get the comms absolutely right” before any change of policy was unveiled. So I guess we may be waiting a little longer for anything concrete.

    And then there’s this: “Masks have no real benefit,” another government aide told Playbook pithily when asked, “they just make it hard to talk. The best reason to introduce them is to shut up all the armchair epidemiologists carping at the sidelines.” Ouch.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,337 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    Interesting segment on newsnight with ceo of big german firm Roche. ...

    Was not aware it was the German firm actually rolling out their testing capacity and developing the antibody test for them.

    Roche is a non-EU Swiss firm, so no conflict with the principles of the Brexiteers.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,088 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    A few interesting updates from the Politico London Playbook newsletter:

    On testing:


    On the wearing of face coverings outside:

    Whatever about the latter thing you quoted, what exactly is "interesting" about the first quote on testing?

    It's the same guff being spouted for a fortnight.

    We get it, they want to have capacity for 100k tests in a certain period of time. Maybe if they keep saying it, it may happen.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,060 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    Whatever about the latter thing you quoted, what exactly is "interesting" about the first quote on testing?

    It's the same guff being spouted for a fortnight.

    We get it, they want to have capacity for 100k tests in a certain period of time. Maybe if they keep saying it, it may happen.


    It just occurs to me now, how do we know if they have the capacity to test 100 000 people a day?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,831 ✭✭✭theological


    Whatever about the latter thing you quoted, what exactly is "interesting" about the first quote on testing?

    It's the same guff being spouted for a fortnight.

    We get it, they want to have capacity for 100k tests in a certain period of time. Maybe if they keep saying it, it may happen.


    You can say it is guff when it doesn't happen. Until then I don't see any reason why I shouldn't trust Prof. Newton.

    The second part of that quote in respect to South Korea is also interesting because the UK is a similar size.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,995 ✭✭✭McGiver


    Memnoch wrote: »
    The official government figures are around 18,000. The financial Times article puts the true figure closer to 41,000. That's 20,000 people who have died in care homes and in the community. Never having been tested and one would presume with very little treatment.
    If FT is right then the death rate per capita is the second worst in Europe on par with Spain if we estimate their death outside of the hospitals, they do count some but not all, so let's use 40% extra on top of their numbers.

    Spain - 0.639 per 1000 (care homes included, estimated)
    UK - 0.621 per 1000 (care homes included, estimated)
    Italy - 0.570 per 1000 (care homes included, estimated)
    Belgium - 0.518 per 1000 (care homes included, actual)
    France - 0.318 per 1000 (care homes included, actual)
    Germany - 0.058 per 1000 (care homes included, actual)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,831 ✭✭✭RobMc59


    Interesting segment on newsnight with ceo of big german firm Roche.

    UK politicians still insisting they will meet the 100k testing target by next week.

    German ceo: "Absolutely impossible."

    Was not aware it was the German firm actually rolling out their testing capacity and developing the antibody test for them. The ceo also said that years of underfunding the health service had basically fecked up their infrastructure. Can imagine those foreigner delivered home truths not going down very easily.

    Most pharmaceutical firms are only interested in promoting their own products and there's as much collusion and intrigue going on with them as any big business.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    RobMc59 wrote: »
    Most pharmaceutical firms are only interested in promoting their own products and there's as much collusion and intrigue going on with them as any big business.

    Sorry, i made the mistake saying they were german when it's actually a swiss firm. That correction made, what in your dismissive manner are you objecting to what the company ceo said?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,175 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    The second part of that quote in respect to South Korea is also interesting because the UK is a similar size.

    Except its not the same as all because the koreans had it under control from day one, if they didnt have to deal with that dooms day cult they could easily have been under 10k cases total.

    The reason they are only testing 8k a day now is because of the high number they were testing from basically the start of the pandemic which meant they could track and trace incredibly successfully. The UK in comparisons has let it get completely out of control and stopped track and trace entirely and thats why the comparison irregardless of population similarity is completely worthless.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    You can say it is guff when it doesn't happen. Until then I don't see any reason why I shouldn't trust Prof. Newton.

    The second part of that quote in respect to South Korea is also interesting because the UK is a similar size.

    Sure the uk could get away with 20,000 tests a day too like South Korea if they had the ability to be proactive like they were and to launch a contact tracing scheme that the whole population bought into and managed with great efficiency. Otherwise you'll need much much bigger volume of testing.


This discussion has been closed.
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